Thorny Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 1 minute ago, LGR4GM said: 7 is a small sample and it does not factor in Covid. It does not matter though if Power is at the top of "most" lists. It only matters who is at the top of the Sabres list. Look beyond the TSN lists, though. Almost every draft has a consensus guy, or two, and that guy, or guys, goes first almost always. I *know* it only matters who is at the top of the Sabres list, my point is that - the evidence clearly demonstrates that the guy at the top of the consensus is always the guy at the top of the list of the team picking first. The data is the data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 On 4/19/2021 at 12:23 PM, LGR4GM said: Here are the numbers though. Strong correlation between top 2 picks and this list. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 My thought is, if this draft was going to show itself as an anomaly, the lists would be all over the place. But no, a strong Power at 1 consensus is being formed. As we have seen, that guy almost always goes first Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 Just now, Thorny said: Look beyond the TSN lists, though. Almost every draft has a consensus guy, or two, and that guy, or guys, goes first almost always. I *know* it only matters who is at the top of the Sabres list, my point is that - the evidence clearly demonstrates that the guy at the top of the consensus is always the guy at the top of the list of the team picking first. The data is the data I am trying to tell you this draft is different. This draft is an exception because it lacks the top end player and because Covid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 If you were a betting man, Liger, who do you say, right now, is going to be the first overall pick? Right now, for a million dollars, place your bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 Just now, Thorny said: My thought is, if this draft was going to show itself as an anomaly, the lists would be all over the place. But no, a strong Power at 1 consensus is being formed. As we have seen, that guy almost always goes first I just, honestly do not care about the lists. If the Sabres take Power, they take Power. I think it is a mistake but then as I get told every year at the draft "if your opinion mattered you would be paid for it." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalonill Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 Just now, Thorny said: My thought is, if this draft was going to show itself as an anomaly, the lists would be all over the place. But no, a strong Power at 1 consensus is being formed. As we have seen, that guy almost always goes first After the u18 guenther will be the favorite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 Just now, Thorny said: If you were a betting man, Liger, who do you say, right now, is going to be the first overall pick? Right now, for a million dollars, place your bet I don't even know which team is drafting 1st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: I am trying to tell you this draft is different. This draft is an exception because it lacks the top end player and because Covid. And earlier on when you said this I thought the lists might reflect that. But thus far that is not bearing itself out 1 minute ago, LGR4GM said: I don't even know which team is drafting 1st. Doesn't matter. That's kind of my point. I'm not arguing with you, I just want you to be honest. If someone offered you the ability to place One bet, right now, on who it would be, who would you pick? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Thorny said: And earlier on when you said this I thought the lists might reflect that. But thus far that is not bearing itself out We haven't even gotten to the final lists. You are anchoring. A list comes out and that is "the list". At this point, it is possible Power is the consensus. I would guess that will be how things trend. I feel like you are freaking yourself out because you are hesitant on Power and think Buffalo will end up with the 1st pick and take him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: We haven't even gotten to the final lists. You are anchoring. A list comes out and that is "the list". At this point, it is possible Power is the consensus. I would guess that will be how things trend. And my POV has no comment on how the consensus' will trend. That's your avenue, I don't have the knowledge to analyze and project the players, or tell you who each team SHOULD pick. I just look at the numbers. WHOEVER ends up at 1 on most of the lists, if someone indeed does, will very likely go first overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thorny said: And my POV has no comment on how the consensus' will trend. That's your avenue, I don't have the knowledge to analyze and project the players, or tell you who each team SHOULD pick. I just look at the numbers. WHOEVER ends up at 1 on most of the lists, if someone indeed does, will very likely go first overall. Honestly outside of the Patrick/Hischier draft and the Ekblad/Reinhart draft... we've known who was going first overall as early as October. Yes there is usually a consensus and this year, I think at least for teams, that won't be the case. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 @Thorny Ask and you shall receive... Scouch is clutch today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 40 minutes ago, Thorny said: You find me a draft where a player generally ranked 3/4 went first overall, then divide that by the amount of drafts that have taken place in a 10-20 year period surrounding that pick, and that'll tell you the expected likelihood of Beniers going 1st overall this year should these lists hold If Beniers is ranked 3/4, he ain't going 1st overall. That's all I'm saying How many drafts compare to this one though, where there isn't an obvious elite player? Or are you saying a consensus is forming that Power is an elite player? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 (edited) 10 minutes ago, dudacek said: How many drafts compare to this one though, where there isn't an obvious elite player? Or are you saying a consensus is forming that Power is an elite player? These are drafts where I don't remember there being a clear-cut #1: 2017, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2007, 2006, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000 Kovalchuk over Spezza was definitely against the consensus. Seth Jones and McKinnon were flip a coin for first that year, they went 1st and 4th. No one would have been stunned if Sam Bennett went 1st in 2014. I remember Turris and vanReimsdyk being rated higher than Kane by many that year. 2006 Kessel was the hype. Eric Johnson came out of (relative) nowhere. Edited April 23, 2021 by dudacek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 (edited) 33 minutes ago, dudacek said: How many drafts compare to this one though, where there isn't an obvious elite player? Or are you saying a consensus is forming that Power is an elite player? No, I'm saying a consensus is forming, and any year there's been a consensus, that guy (s) almost always goes 1. Some years there's a consensus that it's down to 2 guys. In a year where there were 2 being touted, an "either or for 1st" thing like Jones and MacKinnon, Hischier/Patrick, Seguin/Hall, Kovalchuk/Spezza- one of the touted twosome went first. Kane was consensus 1, easily. I agree on 2014, we'd mentioned that, and the Johnson year is a good one, too. - - - Not very common with only 2 occurrences in recent memory. I guess the hope would be, if we don't want Power, that the markers look like 2014 heading in - but even then, Ekblad was most commonly picked as 1, more so than Sam or Sam, and he did go 1. But I think 2014 counts cause my guess is we were going Sam even at 1. Power could be Ekblad if we get 1, if indeed we were going another way. I just wouldn't bet on it. Edited April 23, 2021 by Thorny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 I guess what I'm stumbling over is a chicken-and-the-egg thing: If you are saying that the hype around a consensus #1 usually matches the guy that gets picked there, that's hard to disagree. But I'd argue that has more to do with the industry glomming on to who is going to get picked there, than the industry influencing who's going to get picked there. (Cover of the 2013 Hockey News draft preview: "Seth Jones, slam dunk to go number 1.") Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalonill Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 (edited) Looks like Beniers is dropping as expected and Guenther moving up https://www.nhl.com/news/top-32-prospects-for-2021-nhl-draft/c-323907274 Edited April 23, 2021 by Buffalonill 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Buffalonill said: Looks like Beniers is dropping as expected and Guenther moving up https://www.nhl.com/news/top-32-prospects-for-2021-nhl-draft/c-323907274 Any list that has Johnson over Beniers is trash. Jesus christ, citing blocked shots in 2021 for a prospect... barf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalonill Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: Any list that has Johnson over Beniers is trash. Jesus christ, citing blocked shots in 2021 for a prospect... barf. I agree that Kent shouldn't be ahead of your guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 Just now, Buffalonill said: I agree that Kent shouldn't be ahead of your guy He's not my guy but anyone who watched ncaa hockey saw Beniers drive that line while Johnson got open looks and stick handled mainly on the perimeter. I don't have a guy this draft. I like the forwards but think we'll get a good player regardless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 (edited) 49 minutes ago, dudacek said: I guess what I'm stumbling over is a chicken-and-the-egg thing: If you are saying that the hype around a consensus #1 usually matches the guy that gets picked there, that's hard to disagree. But I'd argue that has more to do with the industry glomming on to who is going to get picked there, than the industry influencing who's going to get picked there. (Cover of the 2013 Hockey News draft preview: "Seth Jones, slam dunk to go number 1.") 100%. I'm arguing causation not at all. I'm merely stating that the correlation is statistically undeniable. It may seem an obvious, even pointless point to make - but this originated because I was saying I almost hope we don't get #1, because in the (looking likely?) event that a "Power at #1" consensus forms, if you step back and look at the results over time - the strong correlation we were talking about shows up: It would be likely that the industry had, once again, cottoned on, and that whoever gets 1, the likely result is that the selection is Mr. Power. The reasons for why the guy said to be "going 1" usually goes 1, don't matter for me, here - it's enough to say, statistically, it usually happens. The results bear it out. It's not like..75% of the time the consensus guy goes #1, it's like, almost always. There are exceptions, but few - few enough that I think I've covered enough ground for my statement of "I don't want #1 b/c, to me, that means it's likely we come away with Power" to have logical merit, even if one disagreed because they, say, felt confident in thinking Adams was targeting someone else. I have no idea what Adams is thinking. No idea. So if I'm going to throw a dart, here, it's going to be based off the macro numbers which point to a clearly identifiable trend - that would be my best chance of being right, and therefore contributing to the conversation. It's not a certainty we'd pick Power. It's a weird year. But I'm just sayin' Edited April 23, 2021 by Thorny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalonill Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: He's not my guy but anyone who watched ncaa hockey saw Beniers drive that line while Johnson got open looks and stick handled mainly on the perimeter. I don't have a guy this draft. I like the forwards but think we'll get a good player regardless. I thought this last year then they picked a guy that would be available at 15 who I never had on our radar lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashsabre Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Buffalonill said: Looks like Beniers is dropping as expected and Guenther moving up https://www.nhl.com/news/top-32-prospects-for-2021-nhl-draft/c-323907274 LOL How have all these players risen or dropped when no one has played games lately. Classic “the boss wants you to create some new content” why is everyone so high on Edvinsson, kid has the hockey IQ of a piece of wood. Great tools, no toolbox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalonill Posted April 23, 2021 Report Share Posted April 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Flashsabre said: LOL How have all these players risen or dropped when no one has played games lately. Classic “the boss wants you to create some new content” why is everyone so high on Edvinsson, kid has the hockey IQ of a piece of wood. Great tools, no toolbox. It's just "scouts" getting bored and trying to get clicks do I agree with the list? no 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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