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GASabresIUFAN

2019-2020 Lineup

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On 12/7/2018 at 12:51 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

By the way.  What does Pilut’s playing more minutes already then Baloo tell you about Baloo’s future with the Sabres beyond this season?  It tells me that Baloo is a spare part and likely won’t be a Sabres next year.

I kind of feel bad for the guy.  He had a tough time here through this summer, but this year he's playing very well and will find himself the odd man out.

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With the deadline just weeks away coupled with our death spiral since November,  does this change the calculus for next season? 

I think it does.  Our bottom of the NHL performance in recent weeks has revealed some real flaws with this team.  It starts with a lack of a true 2nd line center.  It’s compounded by falloff in performance of two key D (Bogo and Scandy) and a lack of finish on any of our wingers outside Samson, Skinner and the improving Thompson.  

So while it’s literally possible to bring back this entire squad, some real change is necessary.  It could begin at the deadline,  if it’s move likely over the summer.

So far I’m pretty sure the Skinner gets re-signed.  Jack, Samson, Dahlin, Pilut, Mitts, Thompson and the 2 goalies will all be back.  After that, I can see scenarios where Jbot could move on from everyone else.  

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

With the deadline just weeks away coupled with our death spiral since November,  does this change the calculus for next season? 

I think it does.  Our bottom of the NHL performance in recent weeks has revealed some real flaws with this team.  It starts with a lack of a true 2nd line center.  It’s compounded by falloff in performance of two key D (Bogo and Scandy) and a lack of finish on any of our wingers outside Samson, Skinner and the improving Thompson.  

So while it’s literally possible to bring back this entire squad, some real change is necessary.  It could begin at the deadline,  if it’s move likely over the summer.

So far I’m pretty sure the Skinner gets re-signed.  Jack, Samson, Dahlin, Pilut, Mitts, Thompson and the 2 goalies will all be back.  After that, I can see scenarios where Jbot could move on from everyone else.  

I think we are, or should be, a playoff team with the addition of solely a bona fide 2C. Gotta think it's #1 on Botterill's list. Most of the roster seems to fall into place after that, at least at forward.

On D we have a need on the right side still. I really don't think re-upping Bogo after next season is the answer. Adding a top-4 RHD is to me the biggest secondary need. 

Offseasons are always busy but it looks like Botterill will have less to do this offseason compared to the last, hopefully giving him the time to focus on adding both those players.

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With Bogo and Nelson only on 1 yr deals and Borgen a question mark, Jbot needs to add an RHD or two. 

Also with 9 healthy D, someone us getting traded at the deadline. 

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33 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

With Bogo and Nelson only on 1 yr deals and Borgen a question mark, Jbot needs to add an RHD or two. 

Also with 9 healthy D, someone us getting traded at the deadline. 

Any thoughts on Brett Pesce? I've been on some other boards (mainly 'Canes) and talk is he "could" be available. Did a little research on him and seems pretty solid. Signed for about 3-4yrs at around $4M.

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Actually he has 5 years left a 4 mill per season.  He is a Jbot kind of player.  College educated. 

More of defensive D man but has some skill. I saw that Carolina is willing to trade him.  Not sure why u trade a solid 24 year old D.  I don’t know about his skating.

Considering Waddell is the GM, we can probably get him for Baloo, a box of donuts, and O’Regan and a 2nd rd pick in 2021.

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36 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Actually he has 5 years left a 4 mill per season.  He is a Jbot kind of player.  College educated. 

More of defensive D man but has some skill. I saw that Carolina is willing to trade him.  Not sure why u trade a solid 24 year old D.  I don’t know about his skating.

Considering Waddell is the GM, we can probably get him for Baloo, a box of donuts, and O’Regan and a 2nd rd pick in 2021.

From what I've seen they say above average skating....I think we could push that draft pick to 2031, lol.

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56 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 Not sure why u trade a solid 24 year old D.

They do have more RHD and some decent prospects in Charlotte. With Faulk and Hamilton, he could be our McCabe (who can you move that has value and can help bring in a piece to help elsewhere).

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Assuming we sign Skinner, here's who is under contract next year up front:

Skinner Eichel Reinhart

Thompson ??? ???

Sheary Mittelstadt Okposo

??? Sobotka ???

 

And on defence:

Dahlin Ristolainen

Scandella Bogosian

Pilut Nelson

Hunwick

 

Amerks: Nylander, Olofsson, Asplund, Wilson, Guhle, Borgen, Hickey

RFAs: Rodrigues, Girgensons, Larsson, Smith, Elie, Leier, Cornel, Malone, McCabe, Beaulieu, Dougherty

 

Rodrigues and McCabe clearly get re-signed.

We will almost certainly bring in at least one and preferably more top nine forwards from outside the organization

And you have to think they will leave a spot or two open for Guhle, Olofsson and others to graduate into.

 

I don't think Larsson, Girgensons or Beaulieu has a spot on the team next year — not ahead of guys like Smith and Guhle — and I would surprised if one or more of them isn't moved at the deadline

Edited by dudacek

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@dudacek I think KO is done.  

I agree on McCabe and ERod.  I also think Olofsson has a slot on this team, maybe even over Smith.  

As to 4th line players like Larsson and Girgensons, are you really going to get better bang for the buck on re-signing these two RFAs. They certainly aren’t the problem.  Both can be re-signed for one more year likely without a raise.  That’s 3 mill to keep to guys whose effort is rarely an issue and isn’t that what we want on the 4th line?

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7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@dudacek I think KO is done.  

I agree on McCabe and ERod.  I also think Olofsson has a slot on this team, maybe even over Smith.  

As to 4th line players like Larsson and Girgensons, are you really going to get better bang for the buck on re-signing these two RFAs. They certainly aren’t the problem.  Both can be re-signed for one more year likely without a raise.  That’s 3 mill to keep to guys whose effort is rarely an issue and isn’t that what we want on the 4th line?

Friedman mentioned that Okposo’s Concussion isn’t as serious as it could have been, but that his future is still in question 

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Just now, Brawndo said:

Friedman mentioned that Okposo’s Concussion isn’t as serious as it could have been, but that his future is still in question 

I just don’t see what the long-term benefit to him to keep playing.  He is going to get his money, but his healthy is always on a razor’s edge if he keeps playing.  How is that worth it?  Go on LTIR, take a management job under Jbot.  He is a smart guy and work toward a future in the game but off the ice.  He has 2 very young kids who need their Dad.

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39 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@dudacek I think KO is done.  

I agree on McCabe and ERod.  I also think Olofsson has a slot on this team, maybe even over Smith.  

As to 4th line players like Larsson and Girgensons, are you really going to get better bang for the buck on re-signing these two RFAs. They certainly aren’t the problem.  Both can be re-signed for one more year likely without a raise.  That’s 3 mill to keep to guys whose effort is rarely an issue and isn’t that what we want on the 4th line?

Agree with you guys that Kyle should quit, but until he does you have to pencil him in.

Here's the thing with Larry and Zemgus: if we add two good forwards from outside the organization, they are in the way. Assuming Tage, Casey, Sam, ERod, Jeff, Jack and Conor, there is no room for Smith, Olofson or anyone else to make the jump if Z and Larry are still around. And really, worst case scenario are Z and Larry that much better than, say, Wilson and Elie at half the price? If we want to upgrade the forwards somebody has to go and they are the most likely, IMO.

Now if Kyle retires and Vlad is dumped, that changes things.

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3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 are Z and Larry that much better than, say, Wilson and Elie at half the price?

 

IMO, yes.

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2 hours ago, Weave said:

 

IMO, yes.

Agreed.

Find them a 4R either from internal (Wilson on off wing or Sobotka (shudder)) or external (FA) and that line is set.

The big hole remains 2C which almost definitely has to come from outside.

Then find a 1/2R (depending on whether Reinhart plays with Eichel or not) & a 2L and the forwards are set.  

Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart/?

? - ? - ?/Reinhart

Sheary - Mittelstadt - Thompson

Girgensons - Larsson - Wilson/Sobotka/?

With Rodrigues deserving to fill one of those ?'s or Thompson's slot.  Could see Olofsson starting in Sheary's slot out of the gate & then hopefully outplaying him & moving up to the 2.  Could see Smith or Wilson as the 13th F.

Would still like to see another RHD brought in.  Barring that, The D look like

McCabe - Ristolainen

Dahlin - Bogosian

Pilut/Scandella -Nelson

Hunwick

 

Which looks like there will be at least 1, if not 2, true hockey trades.  A D-man or 2 (1 of those listed & Guhle/ rights to Beaulieu being in play) & a couple of wingers (Sheary, Rodrigues, Girgensons, Wilson, Nylander, & just about any other Amerk F being in play) getting moved out.

It's good to see there will actually be competition at least for the 3rd line & 3rd pairing next year.  Depending on other moves, could have competition at 2nd pairing / 2nd lines.

Sadly, can't see them being able to get rid of Sobotka via trade so he'll be there.

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2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Agree with you guys that Kyle should quit, but until he does you have to pencil him in.

Here's the thing with Larry and Zemgus: if we add two good forwards from outside the organization, they are in the way. Assuming Tage, Casey, Sam, ERod, Jeff, Jack and Conor, there is no room for Smith, Olofson or anyone else to make the jump if Z and Larry are still around. And really, worst case scenario are Z and Larry that much better than, say, Wilson and Elie at half the price? If we want to upgrade the forwards somebody has to go and they are the most likely, IMO.

Now if Kyle retires and Vlad is dumped, that changes things.

Why?

Jack, Jeff, Sam, Mitts, Tage, Erod and Sheary are 7/9 of a top 9.  Add a center (Duchene) and Olofsson and you have a complete top 3 lines.

L1 Jeff, Jack, Sam

L2 Sheary, Duchene, Thomspon

L3 Erod Mitts Olofsson

play with the wingers some, but you have a pretty decent lineup.

Now pick 4 or 5 of Sobotka, Z, Larry, KO (if available), Wilson and Smith.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Why?

Jack, Jeff, Sam, Mitts, Tage, Erod and Sheary are 7/9 of a top 9.  Add a center (Duchene) and Olofsson and you have a complete top 3 lines.

L1 Jeff, Jack, Sam

L2 Sheary, Duchene, Thomspon

L3 Erod Mitts Olofsson

play with the wingers some, but you have a pretty decent lineup.

Now pick 4 or 5 of Sobotka, Z, Larry, KO (if available), Wilson and Smith.  

 

 

That's basically the same lineup we have right now plus Duchene.

It's only decent if we acquire a Duchene-calibre player AND Thompson, Mittlestadt and Olofsson make big leaps.

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I think you are starting to see Mitts come into his own now.... He is playing with a lot more speed... TT has a bit more to go and probably about 20 lbs to put on, but even with him its about experience and eliminating the bonehead plays... he has been better lately... looking at some more consistency... I keep Larry, Z, Wilson and Smith.  KO may be done... for his sake I hope he calls it a day.  In addition, though I like Sheary's speed, wouldn't mind to see him replaced... 

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4 hours ago, dudacek said:

That's basically the same lineup we have right now plus Duchene.

It's only decent if we acquire a Duchene-calibre player AND Thompson, Mittlestadt and Olofsson make big leaps.

Isn’t that the point of developing players internally?  Also with Mitts and Thompson slotted correctly you’ll probably get better results.  

Also the addition of Duchene likely pushes Sobotka from starter to expensive door stop or even to a buy out/waiver and that is a huge step forward. Losing Z also eliminates one of the few legit fore checkers on this team.  By the way, I’m not saying that either Larry or Z aren’t reasonably easy to replace, I just saying it’s unlikely given their cap hit.

Other then Duchene or other capable Center, our biggest need at Forward is a top 6 PF. I doubt Thompson is ready but I don’t see another internal choice.  If Jbot gets one, that likely slots Thompson to 3rd line which would be great, but where do you play Olofsson and how does that play out cap wise with new expensive deals for Duchene/Center and Skinner? 

I also think our biggest roster issue is that we really have only one consistently defensively responsible defensemen and that is McCabe.  Scandella and Bogo should be able to bring that kind of play but don’t.  I think that is one of the keys to our bad play since the streak ended.  Having Risto, Pilut, Dahlin, Scandy and Bogo on defense leads to huge issues on the back end.  Risto has improved some and Dahlin will get there, but they bring other pluses.  At this point Bogo and Scandy bring nothing.  If I’m Jbot, my biggest priority is to get an RhD stay at home partner for Dahlin.  Get that and we’ll be a huge step closer.

Dahlin New Guy

McCabe Risto

Pilut Bogo

Nelson

 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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Current lineup if no more moves made except RFAs signed

Forwards

Skinner Eichel Olofsson

Sheary Mitts Reinhart

Nylander Erod (RFA) Okposo

Wilson Sobotka Thompson

Smith (RFA)

Defense

Dahlin Montour

McCabe (RFA) Ristolainen

Scandella Bogosian

Hunwick Nelson

Goaltending

Hutton Ullmark (RFA)

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I don’t like the idea of Olofsson and Skinner on the same line. I think Victor has the potential to be a greater playmaker, but I think his money will be made putting the biscuit in the basket. Skinner played great with Jack, but if he’s truly a $9m player he can slot into the 2nd line and PP1 and produce the same results. I think Olofsson with Jack has the potential to score a similar amount of EV goals as Jack with Skinner. I don’t think the same can be said with Victor with 2C and Skinner with 2C. Either way, Skinner is PP1. Would like to see:

x-Eichel-Olofsson

Skinner-x-Reinhart

Sheary-Mitts-Thompson (55%+ offense zone draws)

Nylander (hard maybe)-Rodriguez-Okposo

Too ignorant to name D pairings. Would be talking out of my ass to try. Don’t mind your projections, but they could certainly be improved with better players. 

Edited by #freejame

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@GASabresIUFAN-- I hope you don't mind if we merge your new 2019-2020 lineup thread into your existing 2019-2020 lineup thread.

Now back to regularly scheduled programming.

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1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

@GASabresIUFAN-- I hope you don't mind if we merge your new 2019-2020 lineup thread into your existing 2019-2020 lineup thread.

Now back to regularly scheduled programming.

TYFYS

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