GDT: Sabres at LA Kings 10/20/18 3:30PM MSG, WGR

[bob_sauve28]

1 hour ago, JJFIVEOH said:

Hutton is in his 30's and never been a starter. 

Ullmark has allowed one goal in two games. Play the hot hand. 

He really wasn't tested much today. 

[Winston]

I own one Kings shirt because my company HQ are in LA and they’ve taken me to a game at Staples. I woke up this morning and it was on top of my pile. Without thinking, I put it on. Then I realized what I had done and changed. I think it played a part in the outcome.

[Randall Flagg]

7 minutes ago, Sakman said:

I Just went back and found the section of the book. Pages 222-224. It wasn't the central point of the chapter at all, more of a side note so it's a summary of several published studies. Of course I went to look for the key study they reference but it was on War-on-ice and that appears to be more or less defunct now. 

 The main point was that a somewhat famous study showed save % for goalies who played both ends of a back to back dropped about 0.2% but later studies found that was more a fluke of the season studied. One of the seasons was the lockout season which had a weird compressed schedule anyway. So a later study (2015 War-on-Ice that I can't find) apparently looked at every season since the lockout 2005 through 2013-14 and found that the initial study looked at the two seasons with the largest decrease in goalie save%'s in back-to-back's, but in  looking at other seasons they actually found three years where goalie save % was higher in the second game of a back-to-back where they played both games.  Whereas some other studies apparently conclude that teams playing back to backs are "5% worse at attempting close shots and 6% worse at allowing close shots." (Another War-on-ice blog post, both of these are from a guy named Andrew Thomas). 

 Nonetheless, intuitively it seems that playing a second day in a row would be harder than playing when fully rested, due to fatigue.

I guess if a "hot hand" effect actually exists for goaltending and your goalie is playing well, it might make sense to play him on the 2nd night as well. Alternatively if you have a goalie really struggling, you might be better off starting the other guy both nights. In the Sabres case although Ullmark has certainly played well I am not sure if he is truly a hot hand per se and I don't feel Hutton is struggling, so I'd start Hutton tomorrow.  

Thanks. 

For two seasons of doing this with Lehner, he never allowed less than 3 goals the second night, never won once (they might have done this with him 8 times or so), and he was pulled at least 3 or 4 of them. 

I'd still go with Hutton too.

[Doohickie]

4 hours ago, WildCard said:

I am loving Jeff Skinner on this team

I thought that the moment the trade was announced.

[PerreaultForever]

Well it was nice that Skinner finally decided to show up. He continues to play like that and I take back all my earlier doubts/thoughts on the trade.

People scoffed at Bogo getting an A, wanted it to go to Sam as I remember. Decision looks pretty good right now imo. 

I think this win might have been more about how bad they were than how good we were, but I'll take it. Much more fun  to watch a win obviously and signs of life were there.

[Doohickie]

4 hours ago, Tondas said:

Jack with Skinner > Jack with Sheary.

Of course.  But the reason it didn't work the first time was Reinhart.  You need a lesser player to complement Eich and Skinner.... one who cleans up defensively but knows how to hang around the goal mouth in the offensive zone.  Vanek would be perfect for that part, but Pommers is good enough.

[Doohickie]

4 hours ago, N S said:

What happens if Ullie gets the shutter today?

He got the Ryan Miller shutout.  Is that close enough?

[Doohickie]

4 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Also. Why is Ullmark not the starting goalie for this team? All he does is not allow goals.

I want to make sure he can do this at a starter's workload before I dump that workload on him.  I suspect Housley does too.

[Randall Flagg]

When did Ryan start to take over in 05-06? 

I know that team started something like 8-8. 

It's all coming together.

[Doohickie]

4 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Skinner is an emotional guy 

A very talented Little Ball of Hate.

[Doohickie]

3 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

When was our last win in LA?

Not sure, but Biron was the goalie.

[WildCard]

2 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Not sure, but Biron was the goalie.

Modo was right, it was 2003

[Doohickie]

2 hours ago, JJFIVEOH said:

Housley has no balls.

Sure he does.  Karin keeps them in a jar on her nightstand.

[Randall Flagg]

4 points doesn't feel like a lot, but 4-4-0 feels so much better than the 1-5-2 we were at last season. I just want to keep being able to wake up with the hope that an awakening Casey and Reinhart helps bolster this team, with a timely push from guys who force themselves onto the roster by being too good for Rochester. 

[SwampD]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

4 points doesn't feel like a lot, but 4-4-0 feels so much better than the 1-5-2 we were at last season. I just want to keep being able to wake up with the hope that an awakening Casey and Reinhart helps bolster this team, with a timely push from guys who force themselves onto the roster by being too good for Rochester. 

I had this very thought today.

[Huckleberry]

36 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well it was nice that Skinner finally decided to show up. He continues to play like that and I take back all my earlier doubts/thoughts on the trade.

People scoffed at Bogo getting an A, wanted it to go to Sam as I remember. Decision looks pretty good right now imo. 

I think this win might have been more about how bad they were than how good we were, but I'll take it. Much more fun  to watch a win obviously and signs of life were there.

wtf do you mean ? Skinner was always there, just some bad puck luck.    look further than the stats sheet when watching a game.

[Doohickie]

33 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

People scoffed at Bogo getting an A, wanted it to go to Sam as I remember. Decision looks pretty good right now imo.

The success on this team will depend on the performance of their young stars.  The performance of the young stars will depend on the veteran influence.  Bogo, Pommer, Okie, even Sobotka and Berglund... they're forming the character of Jack, Jeff, Reino, Casey and the Rasmi.  This is why ROR had to go:  As much as he talked the good game, it wasn't improving the kids. 

I predict that the bounce from the line shakeup will be temporary, but that HCPH will eventually find the chemistry that will form three, even four, good lines out of this roster.  It may take the tutelage of several vets on the younger guys, but I think this year's vets are more engaged with the youth movement, and vice-versa.  You see a lot of talking on the bench.  When ROR or Gio talked to Jack he just didn't seem receptive to it.  I saw Pommer talking to Jack at one point and Jack was giving him 100% of his attention.  Pommer isn't making the top line better with his performance; he's making it better by improving Jack's view of the game.

[Weave]

8 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

4 points doesn't feel like a lot, but 4-4-0 feels so much better than the 1-5-2 we were at last season. I just want to keep being able to wake up with the hope that an awakening Casey and Reinhart helps bolster this team, with a timely push from guys who force themselves onto the roster by being too good for Rochester. 

Casey and Sam providing secondary scoring is going to me absolutely essential.  If they can't get a second line going, we're done here.

2 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

The success on this team will depend on the performance of their young stars.  The performance of the young stars will depend on the veteran influence.  Bogo, Pommer, Okie, even Sobotka and Berglund... they're forming the character of Jack, Jeff, Reino, Casey and the Rasmi.  This is why ROR had to go:  As much as he talked the good game, it wasn't improving the kids. 

I predict that the bounce from the line shakeup will be temporary, but that HCPH will eventually find the chemistry that will form three, even four, good lines out of this roster.  It may take the tutelage of several vets on the younger guys, but I think this year's vets are more engaged with the youth movement, and vice-versa.  You see a lot of talking on the bench.  When ROR or Gio talked to Jack he just didn't seem receptive to it.  I saw Pommer talking to Jack at one point and Jack was giving him 100% of his attention.  Pommer isn't making the top line better with his performance; he's making it better by improving Jack's view of the game.

Damned shame Jack wasn't open to that 3 seasons ago.   Hopefully he gets it now.

[Doohickie]

9 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

an awakening Casey and Reinhart

We know Reino will be there.  He's been playing well, just hasn't broken through on the score sheet.  Casey looks noticeably better each game, in my opinion.  It's almost like each time he goes out there, the game slows down a bit more and he can keep up that much better.  I think it's no coincidence that he seems to be excelling along the boards; that's probably the point of the game where the action is at its slowest, so his natural skill takes over and he can keep up.  That's slowly happening in other phases of the game.  It's close, and getting closer, for young Casey.

[Doohickie]

3 minutes ago, Weave said:

Damned shame Jack wasn't open to that 3 seasons ago.   Hopefully he gets it now.

Yes.  I mentioned ROR and Gio... it isn't entirely their fault that they didn't get through to Jack.  He was a young kid who thought he was better than them and knew it all.  Three years of hard knocks have changed his perspective and he's more willing to work with the vets.  Of course, being three years older, he's a vet himself now and can probably better understand what they're telling him.

As you can probably tell, I watched the game on delay and am finally caught up with the thread.

[Taro T]

5 minutes ago, Weave said:

Casey and Sam providing secondary scoring is going to  his me absolutely essential.  If they can't get a second line going, we're done here.

As long as Mittelstadt doesn't get discouraged, the points will start to come.  2 posts the game before and a puck off a skate away from having an open net opportunity tonight.

He's getting to good spots & even looking reasonable in his own end lately.

No clue what Reinhart's issue is.  Hopefully he flips the switch earlier this year than he did last year.  If he does, they should remain in the mix.

[Taro T]

10 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

We know Reino will be there.  He's been playing well, just hasn't broken through on the score sheet.  Casey looks noticeably better each game, in my opinion.  It's almost like each time he goes out there, the game slows down a bit more and he can keep up that much better.  I think it's no coincidence that he seems to be excelling along the boards; that's probably the point of the game where the action is at its slowest, so his natural skill takes over and he can keep up.  That's slowly happening in other phases of the game.  It's close, and getting closer, for young Casey.

We've been watching different games apparently.  He was not good either of the last 2 games.  He hasn't gotten to many pucks & when he's had it, he has had problems controlling it & passing it.  IMHO.

[Huckleberry]

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

As long as Mittelstadt doesn't get discouraged, the points will start to come.  2 posts the game before and a puck off a skate away from having an open net opportunity tonight.

He's getting to good spots & even looking reasonable in his own end lately.

No clue what Reinhart's issue is.  Hopefully he flips the switch earlier this year than he did last year.  If he does, they should remain in the mix.

Haven't seen the last two games, but Samson was playing well enough for me, just not getting on the score sheet.

[...]

42 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

He got the Ryan Miller shutout.  Is that close enough?

Hmmmmmmmmmm...

I'm going to reject this one and ask you to try again.

Might I suggest the "Finally standing up for a team-mate no matter how wussy you looked doing it shut-out"?  If memory serves, that point came on KO's penalty after Sheary got shoved into the boards head first.

 

[Randall Flagg]

I thought Reinhart was playing just like last year, without the bounces, until Vegas. I thought Vegas and SJ were bad, and that he was getting better as today's game went on. It's not quite like his start last year, even though the goal-less streak is getting painful.