WildCard Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 Even if Buffalo beats the Otters, you expect them to get the point or 2 they need to crawl into 30th in FLA?Well we'd be down 1pt, playing Florida, while Ottawa gets Pittsburgh and Boston and we get Tampa and Florida. I'd rather not take those odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crusader1969 Posted April 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 Play Wilcox Play Pouliot, Beaulieu, Gorges, Tennyson and Faulk. That should be enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 (edited) Sens trying to win. Now down 1 to the Jets w 15 minutes left. So who gets Dahlin, the NYR, DET or MON? I’m going the Rags. Edited April 3, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 Sens trying to win. Now down 1 to the Jets w 15 minutes left. So who gets Dahlin, the NYR, DET or MON? I’m going the Rags. One thing's for sure, whoever win it will have a detailed story crafted by Sabres fans about how the league wanted it that way and then pretend it was obvious the whole time and therefore R I G G E D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 One thing's for sure, whoever win it will have a detailed story crafted by Sabres fans about how the league wanted it that way and then pretend it was obvious the whole time and therefore R I G G E D If it is rigged, he will go to Ottawa. That franchise is hemorrhaging money and needs a defensive star because Karlsson probably isn't staying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 If it is rigged, he will go to Ottawa. That franchise is hemorrhaging money and needs a defensive star because Karlsson probably isn't staying. I say Montreal. Edmonton and Toronto, two classic Canadian franchises...why not add one more to the list? Also, isn't Ottawa losing so much money cause their stadium location sucks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 If we get lucky and get Dahlin and then sign a DeHaan or someone similar, we’ll take a huge step forward. In that scenario Bogo and Baloo become the 7 and 8 D with Guhle at 6 and Nelson expendable. I’m going to assume we aren’t getting Dahlin however. The math says we won’t. The math says we are slightly more likely to draft 4th then 1,2 or 3. At 4 the choices are mostly D that need some development time or two solid forwards. If Jbot wants a D, then I’d be interested in moving down from 4 to 6, 7 or 8. A good D will still be available and we’d likely get a late 1st for our trouble. This draft looks very solid down to 37 or so. That extra pick would be helpful in adding quality to our pipeline. Trading down is rare. I would like to get another 2nd round pick in the mid 40's or higher. There are going to be good defenders who slide into the top half of the second round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 Trading down is rare. I would like to get another 2nd round pick in the mid 40's or higher. There are going to be good defenders who slide into the top half of the second round. I agree on the D in the second. Mattias Samuelsson looks like a very interesting prospect early in the second. That said, the draft pick value chart says a move from 4 down to 7 or 8 should garner a late 1st or a package of a early 2nd and a 3rd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 I agree on the D in the second. Mattias Samuelsson looks like a very interesting prospect early in the second. That said, the draft pick value chart says a move from 4 down to 7 or 8 should garner a late 1st or a package of a early 2nd and a 3rd. What draft value chart? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 What draft value chart? There are three that I have seen. This one is the best. https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 thank you I wouldn't move down personally. Although, I will say that I think there are 4 defenders outside that are all good and in that 4-8 range. (Dobson, Bouchard, Boqvist, and Hughes) I would like to be at the top of that range though so I get to pick the one I want. I really wish we had at least an extra 2nd this year. Maybe there will be a pre draft trade. They happen more often these days then deadline deals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 thank you The chart says there is a 10pt difference between 4 and 7 and a 13pt difference between 4 and 8. I’d also demand a premium for a top 5 pick. The 30th pick is worth 14 pts, 35th 11.3 and 40th 9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 the chart is fairly meaningless because the value of the pick isn't strongly tied to position but is tied to the prospects value in the draft. As an example, last year I had the top 8 players almost of the same value, so I wouldn't pay a lot to move from 8 to 1 and wouldn't expect a lot moving from 1 to 8. This draft there is (in my view) a huge gap between the value of 1 and 8, so I would pay a lot to move from 8 to 1. This year, I think there are 4 good players, fortunately, they are not the same 4 as you guys think, so I wouldn't mind drafting 5 or 6. For me, there is a huge drop if I'm not getting one of those 4, so moving past 6 is out of the question for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 the chart is fairly meaningless because the value of the pick isn't strongly tied to position but is tied to the prospects value in the draft. As an example, last year I had the top 8 players almost of the same value, so I wouldn't pay a lot to move from 8 to 1 and wouldn't expect a lot moving from 1 to 8. This draft there is (in my view) a huge gap between the value of 1 and 8, so I would pay a lot to move from 8 to 1. This year, I think there are 4 good players, fortunately, they are not the same 4 as you guys think, so I wouldn't mind drafting 5 or 6. For me, there is a huge drop if I'm not getting one of those 4, so moving past 6 is out of the question for me. Who are your top 4? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 the chart is fairly meaningless because the value of the pick isn't strongly tied to position but is tied to the prospects value in the draft. As an example, last year I had the top 8 players almost of the same value, so I wouldn't pay a lot to move from 8 to 1 and wouldn't expect a lot moving from 1 to 8. This draft there is (in my view) a huge gap between the value of 1 and 8, so I would pay a lot to move from 8 to 1. This year, I think there are 4 good players, fortunately, they are not the same 4 as you guys think, so I wouldn't mind drafting 5 or 6. For me, there is a huge drop if I'm not getting one of those 4, so moving past 6 is out of the question for me. Very interested in hearing your top 4 this year, and maybe in years past too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 It's upthread somewhere. I said our top 8 is almost identical, except switching Bouchard and Zadina. So the 4 are Dahlin, Bouchard, Svechnikov (sp?), and Walhstrom. Tkachuk is ok, but a drop down from my top 4. Everyone else is a ways back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 the chart is fairly meaningless because the value of the pick isn't strongly tied to position but is tied to the prospects value in the draft. As an example, last year I had the top 8 players almost of the same value, so I wouldn't pay a lot to move from 8 to 1 and wouldn't expect a lot moving from 1 to 8. This draft there is (in my view) a huge gap between the value of 1 and 8, so I would pay a lot to move from 8 to 1. This year, I think there are 4 good players, fortunately, they are not the same 4 as you guys think, so I wouldn't mind drafting 5 or 6. For me, there is a huge drop if I'm not getting one of those 4, so moving past 6 is out of the question for me. I disagree. I’ve been using this chart to evaluate trades at the deadline and over the summer since 2013 and find it’s very accurate year after year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 If it is rigged, he will go to Ottawa. That franchise is hemorrhaging money and needs a defensive star because Karlsson probably isn't staying.You're not serious, are you? I always took you to be far more level-headed than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 You're not serious, are you? I always took you to be far more level-headed than that.No Lol. The results are independently verified. It's not rigged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 Very interested in hearing your top 4 this year, and maybe in years past too There's 2 different lists, 1 was what my model thought at the time, the other is what the model currently thinks I should have thought at the time. This is the past few years of what my model currently thinks I should have thought at the time. And Woody, these numbers are for 2 years, so don't do the normal 1000->NHL ready calculation. 2018 1 RASMUS DAHLIN 2306 2 EVAN BOUCHARD 1531 3 ANDREI SVECHNIKOV 1476 4 OLIVER WAHLSTROM 1343 2017 1 NOLAN PATRICK 1322 2 NICK SUZUKI 1123 3 JESPER BOQVIST 1110 4 TIMOTHY LILJEGREN 1108 2016 1 AUSTON MATTHEWS 2747 2 CLAYTON KELLER 2004 3 MATTHEW TKACHUK 1682 4 CHARLIE MCAVOY 1473 2015 1 CONNOR MCDAVID 3337 2 JACK EICHEL 3195 3 NOAH HANIFIN 1562 4 MITCHELL MARNER 1549 2014 1 WILLIAM NYLANDER 1866 2 SAM BENNETT 1324 3 SAM REINHART 1299 4 AARON EKBLAD 1199 2013 1 ALEKSANDER BARKOV 3378 2 ARTTURI LEHKONEN 1638 3 NATHAN MACKINNON 1574 4 JONATHAN DROUIN 1403 My point is that getting Walstrom 4th this year will be like getting the first pick in 2017, that it's the value of the prospect, not the value of the pick that's important. I disagree. I’ve been using this chart to evaluate trades at the deadline and over the summer since 2013 and find it’s very accurate year after year. Oh absolutely. They're all reading Bob McKenzie for draft advice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 No Lol. The results are independently verified. It's not rigged.Phew! I was getting sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 Oh absolutely. They're all reading Bob McKenzie for draft advice. Come on Rak. That comment is beneath you. Read the article from the link. It’s based on actual trade data. Then go look at deals from the last few drafts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 I'm agreeing with you. The teams aren't making a comparison between Wahlstrom and say Nico Hischier, so they aren't making the proper analysis as to whether to drop down or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabel79 Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 No Lol. The results are independently verified. It's not rigged. The look on Bill Daly's face as he turned the card over, coupled with Connor McDavid trying his best not to cry as he answered repeated questions about his opinions on Edmonton is just about all the proof we need that the lottery isn't rigged. Dumb, based on outcomes, but not rigged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 3, 2018 Report Share Posted April 3, 2018 I'm agreeing with you. The teams aren't making a comparison between Wahlstrom and say Nico Hischier, so they aren't making the proper analysis as to whether to drop down or not. Exactly. Not all drafts are created equal. 2015 for example. This draft looks to have good talent in the top 4. Good talent in the 5-9 spots. After 9 is where it gets questionable. I currently have Dahlin, Zadina, Svechnikov, Wahlstrom as my top 4. Where do you have Zadina and why do you feel he isn't in the top 4 conversation. Also, should we be worried that Wahlstrom played with Jack Hughes who definitely helped him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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