game discussion thread GDT: Ottawa at Buffalo, November 9, 2016, 7:30 pm

[Doohickie]

Generated 1 goal and lost the game... thanks Dan!

 

Does anyone around here know fancy stats to know how many goals the Sabres *should* have scored, given the quantity and quality of scoring chances?  My guess would be 3 or 4.  Some days you just don't get the bounce.

[Radar]

Generated 1 goal and lost the game... thanks Dan!

How many shots did Dan have?

[That Aud Smell]

Does anyone around here know fancy stats to know how many goals the Sabres *should* have scored, given the quantity and quality of scoring chances?  My guess would be 3 or 4.  Some days you just don't get the bounce.

 

They have the second worst shooting percentage in the league at 6.8%. If they had an average SH% (9.3%), they'd have ~10 more goals than they do over 13 games (because they have 382 SOG). Of course, that does not account for quality of shots -- that's way, way beyond my abilities.

 

OTOH, the Sabres' PDO is right at 100.0 through 13 games. Which, I think, is right about where the mean (average?) PDO should be.

 

Okay. Now I've probably said too much. I almost certainly don't know what I'm talking about.

p.s. The source of the stats above: http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2017.html#all_stats

Edited November 10, 2016 by That Aud Smell

[Doohickie]

What's PDO again?

[Randall Flagg]

What's PDO again?

The sum of even strength shooting percentage and save percentage.

[That Aud Smell]

The sum of even strength shooting percentage and save percentage.

 

Right.

 

So, while the Sabres would have presumably been suffering from an awful shooting percentage, any repercussions from that should have been mostly offset by a very good save percentage. A PDO of 100.0 is, I think, the mean to which teams are thought to regress.

[Randall Flagg]

I'd take a "regression" that includes increasing shooting percentage and decreasing save percentage at an equal rate. We'd probably still hover around non-DeLuca .500, but it'd be more fun.

[That Aud Smell]

I'd take a "regression" that includes increasing shooting percentage and decreasing save percentage at an equal rate. We'd probably still hover around non-DeLuca .500, but it'd be more fun.

 

Hear, hear.

 

I don't imagine that's in Hot Daniel's plan.

 

Seems as though SV % is something that a coach can more readily influence -- SH % seems more like an uncontrollable combination of randomness and a team's shooting talent.

[LGR4GM]

Hear, hear.

 

I don't imagine that's in Hot Daniel's plan.

 

Seems as though SV % is something that a coach can more readily influence -- SH % seems more like an uncontrollable combination of randomness and a team's shooting talent.

Unless of course this is the 2nd year in a row with abnormally low shot percentages which indicates that there is a flaw in the system from too many shots from range or poor areas to no one camped in front of the net. We cheer our defense when they keep shooters to the outside even if they shoot 30 times but when our offense operates from the perimeter always and does the same 30 outside shots we blame luck for a low sh%, seems that we aren't scoring because we are not getting to the scoring areas regularly enough. I could be wrong here. I haven't looked up anything. If so than I got no idea why this is happening. 

[Randall Flagg]

I agree with what LGR is saying, and when true and I and others are "bitching about Bylsma for a bad 4 game stretch" this is the type of thing we think about. I don't think the system maximizes anything but its goalie's save percentage.

[woods-racer]

I don't think he was a healthy scratch.  He was out with a 'middle body injury.'

 

Ok. So Dan told him to get his arse in gear or it will be a swift kick in the man jewels. AKA Middle body injury.

 

 

How many shots did Dan have?

 

Only one, but it scored twice.

[LGR4GM]

How many shots did Dan have?

This is one of the dumbest counter arguments. I will actually take the next 30 seconds of my life to explain why. As the coach of the team, Dan decides where, what, and how the offense is run. There is a clear system of getting the puck down low, getting the defense to collapse, sending the puck back high and taking the point shot. So Dan is directly responsible for running a system that has to this point allowed for only low percentage shots to be taken and therefore I am arguing he is partially responsible for the low sh% without ever firing a shot. I would like to thank you for fake participating in the discussion. 

[inkman]

We shoot a lot but also hit the goalie a lot too. Our shots don't force goalies into making tough saves.

So the Sabres aren't trying to score when they shoot?

[K-9]

So the Sabres aren't trying to score when they shoot?

Kind of looks like that at times. Almost like we're just trying to pad the opposing goalie's stats. 

[That Aud Smell]

Hadn't really considered the extent to which Hot Daniel's O-system could influence shot quality and therefore SH%.

[Wyldnwoody44]

I witnessed a terrible hockey game last night, at least in person.... We couldn't connect on passes that the junior sabres are making regularly... It was a bad game between 2 bad teams.... No offense, clogging the zone, people around me were yawning, and the guy in front of me was playing solitare on his phone (just odd).... I was Sad to see kulikov stick his butt out and get smoked on the goal against, our top D should be getting split by I guy I don't even know exists..... OT was great 8-0 shots is fantastic, but I doubt the Sabres win a shootout all season.

Edited November 11, 2016 by Wyldnwoody44

[Jsixspd]

Terrible outcome - and the Sabres slip further below .500.   Lehner was face palm material in the shootout.  Looks like we need to avoid shootouts with Lehner minding the net;  his previous shootout SVG% isn't terrific -  2013 was .667 (20 for 30),  2014 was .714 (10 for 14),  2015 (very limited) was .333 (2 for 6).  And 0-2 in 2016.  Lehner doesn't look to have top shoot-out skills, based on his record.