Sabres Cap Situation Sticky Again Next Season- Youth vs. Cap Floor

[dejeanneret]

According to www.Spotrac.com, the Sabres current cap is at $42,766,000 for next season.

 

The league is projecting a cap ceiling of roughly $71.5 million.  With the floor at roughly 74% of this year's cap, that will make it around $52.8 million next season.

 

That puts us about $10 million below the floor.

 

That includes:

 

Cody Hodgson- $4 Million

Mike Weber- $2 Million

Chad Johnson- $1.6 Million

Cody McCormick- $1.5 Million

 

I think we keep Hodgson & Weber. But losing Johnson/McCormick puts us at $13 Million under.  That's a steep climb.

 

A few positions I see as an easy fit to add depth and salary:

 

Goalie Under Contract:

 

Chad Johnson  $1.6m

 

This is a no brainer, and the reason why a player like Niemi might be a Sabre next year.  I think TM knows the team needs a big-time goalie to turn things around for this team along with making the job more attractive for a big name coach.  Imagine what our record would have been like had we kept Halak instead of letting him go to the Islanders, one of the most improved teams of the year?

 

It's apparent no one is ready on the farm.  I think we sign two veterans, one to be the horse and another young up and coming guy that can eventually take over.  Niemi and Cam Talbot come to mind.  That would also give our younger goalie prospects a year or two to develop so they can battle Talbot for the starting job in a few years.

 

Or a trade can come into play here.  Regardless, I see a true #1 netminder with a huge salary between the pipes next season.

 

Right Wing Under Contract:

 

Cody Hodgson:  $4.0m

Brian Gionta:  $4.25m

 

I think this is where the Sabres do the most FA/ trade damage forward-wise, as I don't see Patrick Kaleta being the answer.  I see the Sabres adding at least one highly paid RW to the roster, maybe even two unless:

 

1)  They decide to put Girgensons at RW (who is a left shot)

2)  Call up Baptiste who'll count $700,000 (is he ready for the NHL?). 

3)  Dare I say...move Eichel to RW?

 

if they keep Hodgson, I don't see Gionta being top six.  That's a lot of cash to spend on a 3rd line guy.

 

Defense Under Contract:

 

Bogosian  $5.25m

Gorges $3.9m

Weber $2.0m

Risto  $925,000

Zadorov $925,000

Ruhwedel $675,000

 

Toughest of the 3. Switching Ruhwedel for McCabe is almost a salary trade off. 

 

1)  Do you call up McCabe or leave him in minors another year and add a big-money D?

2)  Do you move Zadorov as a piece to acquire a stud forward? 

3)  Do you add big money D and leave Weber and McCabe up? 

 

It will either be Weber or McCabe sitting nightly (McCabe would be better off being left in Roch).  

 

Bottom line:

 

The combos can be split a few different ways, but bottom line this is going to be a completely different Sabres team heading into October.  Not only from a talent standpoint in order to be better, but from a Salary Cap standpoint we don't have any choice.  I have a feeling net and right wing will have a much different look, with the Sabres being more active in the trade market and seeking younger players with more talent than whats on the roster, rather than signing older veterans just to eat up salary.

 

On question.  Will the younger players acquired via trade carry enough cap muscle to put us over the floor?

 

Should be an interesting summer.

 

 

 

 

[qwksndmonster]

The cap floor is not/will never be an issue whilst TP owns the team.

[nucci]

The only time the cap situation is "sticky" is when a team is over the cap and has to get rid of players to get below it....It is never a problem if you have to spend money to get to the cap floor.

[PASabreFan]

The cap floor is not/will never be an issue whilst TP owns the team.

Can it ever be an issue? Can a team say, nope, we're not spending to the floor?

[dejeanneret]

Anyone can spend money on a bunch of huge contracts to reach a cap floor.  It's the ability to do so while keeping the integrity of your plan, which is building through the draft and your farm system. Young good players who are still signed to their first deal are usually cheap.  That's who Murray is going after.  Sure you have to sprinkle in your high priced veterans.  But at what cost can you accomplish that without affecting the younger players who may be more skilled and you would want them to get more experience.

 

That's the sticky part. 

[qwksndmonster]

Can it ever be an issue? Can a team say, nope, we're not spending to the floor?

If a team did that, they'd be subjected to the power of the oversight committee of the Large Chamber.  The OC of the LC would appoint a secret team of 4 executives to draw up a plan to help the team reach the cap floor.  Once the plan is drawn up the secret executive squad sends it to the player's association, who hem and haw a bit and then approve it.  Once approved, it goes to the league offices for a complete re-construction of the plan.

[GoPre]

The cap floor is not/will never be an issue whilst TP owns the team.

 

 

Yep, he couldn't understand why so many felt it would be difficult to reach the floor last year. 

 

“You guys always asked about the floor which I never understood, but anyway,” Murray said before opening his end-of-day press conference at First Niagara Center. “I said earlier, it’s always easy to spend money.”

 

Typical Buffalo media will be raising the question again I'm sure. Different "hurdles" may be placed for Murray by the press as the Sabres are in a different situation this offseason, but he'll be rolling his eyes in a are you serious kind of way. 

[LGR4GM]

Anyone can spend money on a bunch of huge contracts to reach a cap floor.  It's the ability to do so while keeping the integrity of your plan, which is building through the draft and your farm system. Young good players who are still signed to their first deal are usually cheap.  That's who Murray is going after.  Sure you have to sprinkle in your high priced veterans.  But at what cost can you accomplish that without affecting the younger players who may be more skilled and you would want them to get more experience.

 

That's the sticky part. 

There are always aging UFA vets you can sign to 1 and 2 yr deals that help your team short team.  The team isn't going to just start every rookie we have.  We can sign a RW, D, and  GT and easily get 13million on the books. It will have no affect on our younger players getting the experience they deserve. 

[That Aud Smell]

Anyone can spend money on a bunch of huge contracts to reach a cap floor.  It's the ability to do so while keeping the integrity of your plan, which is building through the draft and your farm system. 

 

I think this is right. I also think GM TM is up to the job. Let's hope he is, anyway.

 

Also: Is it time to get ride of the McDavid avatar?

[LGR4GM]

Also this post does not take into account Jack Eichel's entry level salary.  That will make an impact on that 13million we need.  

 

Also not taken into consideration. Grigorenko and Pysyk are both RFA's and will get some raise.  Getting to the cap floor is easy. 

[PASabreFan]

But... but... we don't really know the offseason plan, do we? The plan being mentioned here — just sign some washups to get to the floor — is so 2014. Shouldn't we be aiming a little higher this time, as in actually building a team?

[shrader]

I think we keep Hodgson & Weber. But losing Johnson/McCormick puts us at $13 Million under.  That's a steep climb.

 

How exactly are we losing Johnson and McCormick in a way that takes away their hit to the salary cap?

[Taro T]

But... but... we don't really know the offseason plan, do we? The plan being mentioned here — just sign some washups to get to the floor — is so 2014. Shouldn't we be aiming a little higher this time, as in actually building a team?

True, they should. But if bringing in 2-4 washups / washouts will easily get them to the floor, wouldn't it stand to reason that bringing in 2-4 hockey players (that presumably would have more value & thus be pricier) would also easily get them there?

[Eleven]

Also this post does not take into account Jack Eichel's entry level salary.  That will make an impact on that 13million we need.  

 

Also not taken into consideration. Grigorenko and Pysyk are both RFA's and will get some raise.  Getting to the cap floor is easy. 

 

 

Reinhart is missing, too.  As is any starting-quality goaltender.  This is really not an issue.

[inkman]

I think Murray trades for or signs at least $20 million in player this offseason. They won't be of the Mezaros or Benoit variety. I think there is too much smoke around O'Reilly for there not to be a big push for him. That's 50% of your space right there. Tack on another vet forward and defenseman and suddenly we are at $60 mill.

[LGR4GM]

Reinhart is missing, too.  As is any starting-quality goaltender.  This is really not an issue.

So we have 925k for Sammy. I am assuming something like 3.75mil for Eichel (is that the max entry limit?).  You need a starting GT so that's 4-6mil depending on what you want to do but let's say 4. You need a RW, taht's another 4mil.  You need a defender which could range from 3mil to 6 or 7mil (Sekera for instance) so adding 3 players easily puts me at 11million without Eichel, Reinhart, Pysyk, Grigorenko.  

 

Like GMTM once said, "I'm not concerned about getting to the cap floor."

[shrader]

So we have 925k for Sammy. I am assuming something like 3.75mil for Eichel (is that the max entry limit?).  You need a starting GT so that's 4-6mil depending on what you want to do but let's say 4. You need a RW, taht's another 4mil.  You need a defender which could range from 3mil to 6 or 7mil (Sekera for instance) so adding 3 players easily puts me at 11million without Eichel, Reinhart, Pysyk, Grigorenko.  

 

Like GMTM once said, "I'm not concerned about getting to the cap floor."

 

Reinhart is going to have all the same bonuses that Eichel will get.  As long as he's in the NHL and not the AHL, their cap hits should be near identical.

[PASabreFan]

True, they should. But if bringing in 2-4 washups / washouts will easily get them to the floor, wouldn't it stand to reason that bringing in 2-4 hockey players (that presumably would have more value & thus be pricier) would also easily get them there?

Of course. I was responding to GoPre's comment and Liger's hint ("aging" UFA vets) that this offseason is going to be more like offseason than some new approach.

[Taro T]

Of course. I was responding to GoPre's comment and Liger's hint ("aging" UFA vets) that this offseason is going to be more like offseason than some new approach.

Ah, ok.

 

This off-season will definitely not be status quo nor like last season's. I fully expect the moves to be synergistically geared towards building a long term competitive team rather than trying to use a single tool (draft or FA) while "winning" every trade but forgetting that the pieces have to be better collectiveky than individually. Don't know that it'll work, but there is a plan; and I'm looking forward to watching the roster evolve.

[dudacek]

I think we will see some moves we may not be too happy with: kids we love but Murray doesn't for more expensive vets.

[PASabreFan]

I think we will see some moves we may not be too happy with: kids we love but Murray doesn't for more expensive vets.

Interesting. Zaddy?

[Taro T]

I think we will see some moves we may not be too happy with: kids we love but Murray doesn't for more expensive vets.

I expect there to be multiple moves made that we (collectively) don't like. But I do firmly expect those deals to have the Sabres ending up w/ what is supposed to be the best asset getting moved. (Whether it works out that way long term may not happen; but that's what I expect to see at the time of the trade. E.g. Kane & Bogosian for Myers, Stafford, & potential. Sabres should come out of that w/ the best player - hopefully it works out that way & even though Myers probably is better than Bogosian, Bogosian fills a glaring need for the Sabres.)

 

[Edit: TM's statement a while back that he believes he knows where the kids in the Sabres' system will top out (not exact quote, but that was the jist of it) will necessarily lead to some head scratchers as other teams will be higher on some than he is.]

Edited May 11, 2015 by Taro T

[dudacek]

 But I do firmly expect those deals to have the Sabres ending up w/ what is supposed to be the best asset getting moved. (Whether it works out that way long term may not happen; but that's what I expect to see at the time of the trade.

 

Yep. Quantity for quality.

Interesting. Zaddy?

 

He's an obvious one. Pysyk and Girgensons are two more.

[LGR4GM]

Yep. Quantity for quality.

 

He's an obvious one. Pysyk and Girgensons are two more.

You think Murray would trade Zemgus?  I honestly don't.  He was 2nd on a terrible team in goals while missing 20games.  He's probably are best and most ready 2way forward.  Trading him for anything short of Tyler Seguin would actually hurt the rebuild. 

[dudacek]

You think Murray would trade Zemgus?  I honestly don't.  He was 2nd on a terrible team in goals while missing 20games.  He's probably are best and most ready 2way forward.  Trading him for anything short of Tyler Seguin would actually hurt the rebuild. 

 

And if Murray thinks he's already hit his ceiling? And he's the price for Ryan O'Reilly?

Young guys for more proven talent that will hurt.