IKnowPhysics Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 TL;DR: Unfortunately, Goose is attractive trade bait, and we may deal him. Numbers: He's on pace for production numbers (17 points on pace for 26) that are roughly consistent with his previous years (no significant drop). He's tied for third on the team at +1. He's eighth on the team among forwards in time on ice per game. He leads the major face-off takers on the team at 56.8% on 821 faceoffs (Roy is 2nd at 51.3%). Among NHL leaders in faceoff win percentage this year and the past two, he has been ranked 9th, 3rd, and 6th, respectively. His salary has been $2.5M each year for the last three years. Facts: Goose is an unrestricted free agent after this year. Rumors: NBC stated during the broadcast that Paul Gaustad met with Darcy Regier for several hours this week. Several analysts claim that several "contenders" would be/are interested in Gaustad's services for the remainder of the post/season. <-Non BS --------- BS -> My analysis: Darcy probably talked with Goose at length about his ambitions and his future as a Sabre, including the likelihood of resigning with the Sabres before July 1 and potential salary figures. I believe Darcy was trying to do one of two things: 1) Begin contract negotiations with Goose -or- 2) Determine the likelihood that Goose would not sign with the Sabres before July 1 and/or negotiate too of high a price, thereby making it worthwhile to trade Goose as a rental to get some return for his departure. My opinion: A) I like Goose a lot. He's a consistent, hard worker. He's good on the PK and he's great in the circle. He's good value at $2.5M. B) I think that if we wanted to resign Goose for next year, we would have signed him sooner before the trade deadline. I think that the downward trend of the team could have given Darcy pause about some future signings, but I don't believe that to be the case with Gaustad, who has been mostly consistent with expectations. C) I think the delay in resigning him may be a potential indication that either the Sabres may be willing to let him go or that he has quietly indicated that he would like to go (or "test free agency"). D) If the Sabres are not convinced that they can resign him for a reasonable salary before July 1 (or maybe even before Feb 27), I believe he would be a high priority trade. Possible trade returns: -Dominic Moore (salary $1.2M, 19 points) has similar offensive stats, he and a 7th procured a mid 2nd rounder from San Jose. -Alex Ponikarovsky (salary $1.5M, 24 points) again has similar offensive stats, he procured a 4th rounder and D prospect Joe Sova. Based on this "market," I would guess that Darcy could retrieve a mid 2nd round pick in exchange for Goose. Bottom line: I like Goose, but if his future with the Sabres is not completely amenable to either party, he gets moved before the deadline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Who Else? Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 If Regier is trying to talk contract with him now, there is no way he takes less money.You may like the guy , but how can you say he is a good value at 2.5 million when you are comparing him to two players who make under 1.5? I'm sure he'll get a contract similar to the one he has I just hope it's not in Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJFIVEOH Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 I think Goose is well worth keeping. We've all had our gripes about him, but he is usually one of the better all around players. Not the most talented player on the team but certainly has his fair share of contributions; much goes unnoticed. Depending on what happens with Stafford and Roy, the Sabres are going to have to do with filling the spots left open by Boyes and Hecht and possibly Roy and Stafford (if they are traded and depending on what we get in return). This team will be hurting for centers next year, letting him go would only make it more difficult. I don't think he should get much of a raise so if he thinks he can get more on the market for him, I can't blame him for trying. Who knows what was said during these meetings, but if Goose gave DR the impression he wants to test the market I think it would be foolish for DR to not try and get something in return this week if he can. It's a tough position for both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OverPowerYou Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 Gaustad should have a spot on this team just for his penalty killing ability alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted February 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 I used those two because they're the closest to Goose in terms of offensive statistics, but that's only out of the small pool of players already traded this winter/spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 You can't pay 4th line players 2.5 mil a year. End of discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJFIVEOH Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 You can't pay 4th line players 2.5 mil a year. End of discussion. Goose doesn't play the role of a typical 4th line center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChimp Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 Gaustad needed to play this entire year like he's played this past few weeks, after his name started getting bandied around as trade bait. Taking nothing away from his skills as a shut-down guy and excellent PKer, he simply showed NOTHING offensively until two weeks ago, and your shut-down line simply HAS to have some scoring punch to it if you're going to make it in this league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesportsbuff Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 I bet Darcy asked him whether he wanted to stay in Buffalo "for the long haul" so to speak, or if he would be okay with a trade for a draft pick or two and a possible re-sign in July scenario. Obviously a trade would benefit Gaustad as well since it would likely be to a contender, but (for better or worse) Darcy seems to me like a guy that if Gaustad would prefer to just stay, he would let him (since the plan, in this scenario, would be to sign him on July 1st anyway) out of respect for his fairly lengthy tenure as a Sabre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kishoph Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 I like Goose and I believe that a lot of fans do, I do think he lost a big chunk of the fan base after the Lucic incident, but putting that aside I think he has a place on this team, his PK work and his faceoffs are valuable. Is he worth his current contract, I don't know. I can't imagine that it's a common practice for GM's to pull aside players to see how they feel about a trade, but they could of discussed Goose getting traded and returning to the Sabres next season. It's unfortunate that the players that will get something in return for a trade are players that I would like the Sabres to retain, especially since I don't see Darcy coming out on the better end of a trade, unless he can get what he's looking for and get Crosby and Malkin for Roy and Stafford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CallawaySabres Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 Gaustad needed to play this entire year like he's played this past few weeks, after his name started getting bandied around as trade bait. Taking nothing away from his skills as a shut-down guy and excellent PKer, he simply showed NOTHING offensively until two weeks ago, and your shut-down line simply HAS to have some scoring punch to it if you're going to make it in this league. Exactly, he finally shows us how he can play for 4-5 games out of the last how many years? 2.5 mill for facefoffs? Screw him and the rest of the heartless punks who decide they want to play when money is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 Goose doesn't play the role of a typical 4th line center. If the team is going to improve it needs to be at least in part at the expense of Goose on the 3rd line. He is not a 3rd line player on a team with Stanley Cup aspirations. If this team is going to go for a Cup they need to have enough talent to force Goose onto the 4th line. And a 2.5M player on the 4th line is probably a luxury we won't be able to afford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 If the team is going to improve it needs to be at least in part at the expense of Goose on the 3rd line. He is not a 3rd line player on a team with Stanley Cup aspirations. If this team is going to go for a Cup they need to have enough talent to force Goose onto the 4th line. And a 2.5M player on the 4th line is probably a luxury we won't be able to afford. Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LTS Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 Pure logistics say that Gaustad needs to be moved. My best guess is that the conversation was about two things. First, where would you like to go if you could choose. Second, in July would you be willing to come back and what do you think you are worth. The first question is a recognition of his time with the Sabres and allowing Gaustad to set a preferred destination in the event there are two similar trades. He's getting moved to a playoff team and likely one who has the chance to make a deep run. In some way that's the team giving him a chance knowing that this year was an abomination. If Gaustad believes in the long run he could come back. If he gets to his new team and suddenly plays like a full 3rd line player then his value will stay high and July brings uncertainty. Not trading Gaustad is pure stupidity at this point. (Please spare your "Well it's Regier making the call." comebacks.. we know who's running the show right now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 My best guess is that the conversation was about two things. First, where would you like to go if you could choose. Second, in July would you be willing to come back and what do you think you are worth. This is what I would hope the conversation contained. If it were me I would certainly plant the seed that he'd be welcome back (at the right price) come July 1. And he's earned the priviledge of having some input into who he gets dealt to (assuming equal trade offers of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spndnchz Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 He's got value. You definitely have to say that. Especially the way he's played the last few weeks. Like most of these players you wonder where they've been most games. if they all played to their ability we'd be close to unbeatable. I'll agree with LTS. It's the first I thought about when Goose was mentioned in trade talks. Problem is, they win the next three games and it's not so cut and dry whether to start selling. We may not like it but it's the truth. DR is fairly aggressive in my opinion when it comes to the trade deadline. He'll wait and wait hoping that the deal he wanted is still there on Monday. But it may be too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UncleWally Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 Exactly, he finally shows us how he can play for 4-5 games out of the last how many years? 2.5 mill for facefoffs? Screw him and the rest of the heartless punks who decide they want to play when money is on the table. "Money was on the board" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robviously Posted February 21, 2012 Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 DR is fairly aggressive in my opinion when it comes to the trade deadline. He'll wait and wait hoping that the deal he wanted is still there on Monday. But it may be too late. I heard on WGR that 10 teams have already traded their 2nd round pick for 2012. Are there going to be any 2nd round picks left to trade for by the time Darcy emerges from his coma? My guess is Darcy is going to do his usual thing: trade a crappy player for a draft pick, then trade a draft pick for a crappy player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wonderbread Posted February 21, 2012 Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 I heard on WGR that 10 teams have already traded their 2nd round pick for 2012. Are there going to be any 2nd round picks left to trade for by the time Darcy emerges from his coma? My guess is Darcy is going to do his usual thing: trade a crappy player for a draft pick, then trade a draft pick for a crappy player. Maybe he can get a first for him if there are no 2nds left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted February 21, 2012 Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 For those putting forth the possibility of a Gaustad trade followed by him returning in July: this virtually never happens. I don't think it has happened in the NHL since the lockout. My 2 cents: I'm not interested in Gaustad at $2.5MM. I could live with him at $1.75MM or so, but as has been noted upthread, someone will almost certainly give him $2.5MM and he'll be gone. More importantly, I think the "leadership group" on this team needs a complete overhaul. Unloading Gaustad, Roy and Stafford, in addition to the trade returns, would result in 3 out of 5 of this year's letter-wearers being replaced. That would be a pretty significant overhaul. Since I doubt they will trade Pommer or Vanek, replacing the other 3 is the most we're likely to see in terms of that kind of overhaul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spndnchz Posted February 21, 2012 Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 For those putting forth the possibility of a Gaustad trade followed by him returning in July: this virtually never happens. I don't think it has happened in the NHL since the lockout. My 2 cents: I'm not interested in Gaustad at $2.5MM. I could live with him at $1.75MM or so, but as has been noted upthread, someone will almost certainly give him $2.5MM and he'll be gone. More importantly, I think the "leadership group" on this team needs a complete overhaul. Unloading Gaustad, Roy and Stafford, in addition to the trade returns, would result in 3 out of 5 of this year's letter-wearers being replaced. That would be a pretty significant overhaul. Since I doubt they will trade Pommer or Vanek, replacing the other 3 is the most we're likely to see in terms of that kind of overhaul. Nothing to lose here. if you trade Goose for a pick or if you keep him for nothing, either way he's a UFA and able to go where he wants for whatever price. He seems to love the B-lo. Maybe he signs for less so we can keep an Enroth/Ellis $type player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChimp Posted February 21, 2012 Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 If the team is going to improve it needs to be at least in part at the expense of Goose on the 3rd line. He is not a 3rd line player on a team with Stanley Cup aspirations. If this team is going to go for a Cup they need to have enough talent to force Goose onto the 4th line. And a 2.5M player on the 4th line is probably a luxury we won't be able to afford. I disagree. The Goose of the last three weeks sure is a 3rd Line center on a Cup champ. Too bad that's not the real Goose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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