Can Miller Steal A Cup With This Team - NO

[CallawaySabres]

I think it is pretty clear that Miller will never be Brodeur and be capable of winning a Cup with sub par talent. Once the garbage on this team is dumped (Connolly, Rivet, Grier, Niedermayer and Hecht) and these pieces are replaced, Miller will prove that he can win a Cup. Everyone knows damn well that this new ownership is right around the corner and this team will be on its' way. The goaltender is already in place and with about 3 more players, this team is going to be a contender again.

 

Everyone knew the Bills would be horrible and they were. The difference here though is that after we endure this last crappy season, this team is going take a huge leap over the next couple years. Hang in there folks, our time is coming and everyone who has been a sports fan in Buffalo is going to get a team that will contend again. This press conference (whenever it happens)is going to be a doozy and I, for one, am going to want to play the Rocky theme from the mountain tops. It's coming....................

[PASabreFan]

Just curious -- Miller had the league's best regular season team in front of him in 2006-2007. Where's the Cup?

[CallawaySabres]

Just curious -- Miller had the league's best regular season team in front of him in 2006-2007. Where's the Cup?

 

I think everyone here would vote for a playoff ready team instead of a regular season team. The grit was gone and those guys were never going to win a cup no matter how many times they would have been given a shot. Those pieces were let go after the year they really SHOULD have won the Cup. The team that was riddled by injuries the year before was the team that was built perfectly to win it all.

[bills_fan_in_raleigh]

Just curious -- Miller had the league's best regular season team in front of him in 2006-2007. Where's the Cup?

Given he had 4 - 5 AHL defenseman during that loss to Carolina does feed part of the excuse however he still should have been able to make the saves needed in that dreaded third period here in Raleigh. That loss stings more than any other loss has stung for me. Personally I think Miller has a nagging injury given his drop off this year which is a good thing exposing to new ownership just how bad the team in front of him is.

[Cereal]

I think everyone here would vote for a playoff ready team instead of a regular season team. The grit was gone and those guys were never going to win a cup no matter how many times they would have been given a shot. Those pieces were let go after the year they really SHOULD have won the Cup. The team that was riddled by injuries the year before was the team that was built perfectly to win it all.

 

When we failed to retain JP Dumont in the '06 offseason I knew we'd be in trouble.

[Robviously]

When we failed to retain JP Dumont in the '06 offseason I knew we'd be in trouble.

We didn't "fail to retain" him, we picked other players instead of him. The team had cap issues and decided to keep Afinogenov and Kotalik instead of Dumont. I would argue that that's actually worse than just not being able to come to terms on a new contract. Regier and Ruff just plain did not understand which player (of those three) could do the most to win a Cup.

 

It might be the single greatest example of why we should question whether Ruff and Regier are EVER going to win a Stanley Cup.

 

A smart team would have traded Afinogenov right then when his stock had peaked and we could get picks/prospects to keep the team competitive in the future, while clearing cap room to re-sign Dumont to make the team its best in 2006-2007. We weren't that team.

[X. Benedict]

I think it is pretty clear that Miller will never be Brodeur and be capable of winning a Cup with sub par talent.

Which cup did Brodeur win with sub-par talent? All those teams were loaded with talent...only the neutral zone trap made them look less so.

[That Aud Smell]

i'm not sure there's a goalie in the universe who's good enough to steal a cup for a team with sub-par talent. the closest that anyone ever came was dom in 1999.

 

miller's good enough to backstop a good playoff team to a cup, provided a bunch of other stars align themselves (as they always must). barring injury, he will be good enough to do so for the next several years.

 

and as much as i enjoy debating issues on this board, i don't think that this one is up for debate.

[SwampD]

Which cup did Brodeur win with sub-par talent? All those teams were loaded with talent...only the neutral zone trap made them look less so.

Yep. That's another myth that needs to go away. All the Devil's Cups came pre-salary cap. And their last Cup came when they had the 4th highest payroll in the NHL and was almost $20 million higher than the Sabres at the time.

[CallawaySabres]

Yep. That's another myth that needs to go away. All the Devil's Cups came pre-salary cap. And their last Cup came when they had the 4th highest payroll in the NHL and was almost $20 million higher than the Sabres at the time.

 

OK, I should have used Dom as my example (which I was going to)but he had not won a cup. Anyhow, my point is that Miller is being put on a level where he has been made into this SUPER star by outside media and people around here know that is just not true. He is, however, good enough....

[carpandean]

Just curious -- Miller had the league's best regular season team in front of him in 2006-2007. Where's the Cup?

I'm not sure how you can say that with such certainty. The Sabres, including Miller, were the league's best regular season team. But the team in front of him? Yes, as a whole, it combined for the most offense. That's about all you can say. Did he have the best defense in front of him that season? No. Did they have the best individual players? No. Was it well balanced? No. I would argue that in 2005-06, he had a better team in front of him. In 2006-07, he had a "defense be damned, we'll simply outscore you" team; basically the opposite of what Brodeur had all those years. In fact, the closest comparison would be last year's Capitals. While I believe the "built for the playoffs" factor is overblown - a lot of what is good in the regular season is also good in the playoffs - teams can be built to dominate in the regular season (especially the "New NHL" regular season) that will have certain deficiencies come playoff time.

 

Miller is good enough to win the Cup with a team that is also good enough. In any given year, there are three or four teams that are "good enough" and what ultimately determines which of those wins is things like whose players are less banged up, who gets the key bounces, whose goalie gets hot (all go through cycles), whose role players find ways to contribute, etc. It's not as simple as Team A > Team B, so Team wins the Cup. If it were, they wouldn't play the games.

 

I will say this, though, Miller has been below his norm this year, much as Tim Thomas was last year. Thomas bounced back this year and I would expect Miller to do so next year. However, I would also say that Miller pre-Olympics last year was above his norm. As I said, goalies go through cycles and if Miller hits a high point in one post-season, they could win it all (assuming they don't face Crosby in the Conference Finals; he owns Miller.)

[donteatyellowsnow]

I'm not sure how you can say that with such certainty. The Sabres, including Miller, were the league's best regular season team. But the team in front of him? Yes, as a whole, it combined for the most offense. That's about all you can say. Did he have the best defense in front of him that season? No. Did they have the best individual players? No. Was it well balanced? No. I would argue that in 2005-06, he had a better team in front of him. In 2006-07, he had a "defense be damned, we'll simply outscore you" team; basically the opposite of what Brodeur had all those years. In fact, the closest comparison would be last year's Capitals. While I believe the "built for the playoffs" factor is overblown - a lot of what is good in the regular season is also good in the playoffs - teams can be built to dominate in the regular season (especially the "New NHL" regular season) that will have certain deficiencies come playoff time.

 

Miller is good enough to win the Cup with a team that is also good enough. In any given year, there are three or four teams that are "good enough" and what ultimately determines which of those wins is things like whose players are less banged up, who gets the key bounces, whose goalie gets hot (all go through cycles), whose role players find ways to contribute, etc. It's not as simple as Team A > Team B, so Team wins the Cup. If it were, they wouldn't play the games.

 

I will say this, though, Miller has been below his norm this year, much as Tim Thomas was last year. Thomas bounced back this year and I would expect Miller to do so next year. However, I would also say that Miller pre-Olympics last year was above his norm. As I said, goalies go through cycles and if Miller hits a high point in one post-season, they could win it all (assuming they don't face Crosby in the Conference Finals; he owns Miller.)

 

 

No! Miller had a great year last year and this year is more inline with what his career has been, average.

 

As for Thomas, he was injured last year with a bad hip. I heard he had offseason surgery on his hip and now it better that it was before. So Thomas did have an excuse, what's Millers?

 

I don't expect Miller to bounce back, he is what he is and that's average, save the year he had last year.

 

What I find really funny is how many around here kill Marty Biron as being not good enough and below average yet glorify Miller as the best in the world but comparing Millers and Birons career stats, they are very very similar.

 

I do know this, Buffalo could do better in net and they should look at doing better in net along with doing better throughout the whole lineup.

[PotentPowerPlay22]

i'm not sure there's a goalie in the universe who's good enough to steal a cup for a team with sub-par talent. the closest that anyone ever came was dom in 1999.

 

miller's good enough to backstop a good playoff team to a cup, provided a bunch of other stars align themselves (as they always must). barring injury, he will be good enough to do so for the next several years.

 

and as much as i enjoy debating issues on this board, i don't think that this one is up for debate.

 

It took Hasek a couple years to figure out he was spinning his wheels in Buffalo. Hasek was better than Miller. The best hope for the Sabres is a new owner who actually wants to win the Cup and will provide the resources and the personnel to achieve that goal.

[Weave]

i'm not sure there's a goalie in the universe who's good enough to steal a cup for a team with sub-par talent. the closest that anyone ever came was dom in 1999.

 

The closest I can think of is the 93 Montreal Canadiens. Roy was lights out in those playoff series. Montreal was 3rd in the division that year and 5th in the conference.

 

The Sabres have already proven that you can't win a Stanley Cup with the best goalie in the world unless you have a decent team in front of him. Goalies don't steal Stanley Cups. There has to be a very good team on the ice as well.

[nfreeman]

What I find really funny is how many around here kill Marty Biron as being not good enough and below average yet glorify Miller as the best in the world but comparing Millers and Birons career stats, they are very very similar.

 

I do know this, Buffalo could do better in net and they should look at doing better in net along with doing better throughout the whole lineup.

You may think Miller is overrated, and this is a reasonable point to discuss, but Biron isn't close to his level. Marty's been given the chance to become a starting goalie by 3 different teams now and hasn't been up to the job. Of course, I would greatly prefer Marty to Lalime as a backup.

[X. Benedict]

A good goaltender - even a great goaltender - gives your team a chance to win.

Nothing more.

 

A bad goaltender assures your team will lose.

Nothing less.

 

(I'm feeling aphoristic :beer: )

[That Aud Smell]

No! Miller had a great year last year and this year is more inline with what his career has been, average.

woah. :blink:

 

Hasek was better than Miller.

better than all but a few who ever played the position.

 

(I'm feeling aphoristic :beer: )

well put - cheers!

[Weave]

No! Miller had a great year last year and this year is more inline with what his career has been, average.

 

 

woah. :blink:

 

While calling Miller average may be hyperbole, DEYS has some justification for saying this year is typical for Miller.

 

Since Miller has been the starter:

05/06 2.60 GAA .914 SV%

06/07 2.73 .911

07/08 2.64 .906

08/09 2.53 .918

09/10 2.22 .929

10/11 2.67 .912

 

Miller was out of his mind last year. This year his SV% and GAA are very much in line with his career average. This is a normal season for Ryan Miller.

[Robviously]

While calling Miller average may be hyperbole, DEYS has some justification for saying this year is typical for Miller.

 

Since Miller has been the starter:

05/06 2.60 GAA .914 SV%

06/07 2.73 .911

07/08 2.64 .906

08/09 2.53 .918

09/10 2.22 .929

10/11 2.67 .912

 

Miller was out of his mind last year. This year his SV% and GAA are very much in line with his career average. This is a normal season for Ryan Miller.

GAA doesn't tell the whole story. The 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 teams were very offense-first. They went out of their way to crash the net and pinch the defense, and if that resulted in more odd man rushes the other way, it was Miller's job to take care of it. In a weird way it was a compliment to Miller that they were OK with giving up more scoring opportunities because they trusted him to take care of them. But that's still going to result in a higher GAA.

 

He's a good goalie. Is he good enough to play 70 games a year and lead a mediocre team to the Stanley Cup? No.

[That Aud Smell]

Is he good enough to play 70 games a year and lead a mediocre team to the Stanley Cup? No.

and, i submit, there's not a goalie who has/can/could.

[PASabreFan]

While calling Miller average may be hyperbole, DEYS has some justification for saying this year is typical for Miller.

 

Since Miller has been the starter:

05/06 2.60 GAA .914 SV%

06/07 2.73 .911

07/08 2.64 .906

08/09 2.53 .918

09/10 2.22 .929

10/11 2.67 .912

 

Miller was out of his mind last year. This year his SV% and GAA are very much in line with his career average. This is a normal season for Ryan Miller.

 

Great post. I had just looked up the 06-07 numbers. 16th in save% and 20th in GAA. carp seemed to be suggesting that team didn't win the Presidents' Trophy on the strength of the team in front of Miller. It sure doesn't look like Miller carried them to it.

[carpandean]

Great post. I had just looked up the 06-07 numbers. 16th in save% and 20th in GAA. carp seemed to be suggesting that team didn't win the Presidents' Trophy on the strength of the team in front of Miller. It sure doesn't look like Miller carried them to it.

Do you remember 2006-07? They mostly traded high quality scoring chances and simply scored on more of them than their opponents. Their defense was deficient in their own end and "team defense" wasn't a term used too often. For Miller to have decent stats, he had to be playing pretty well.

 

However, I did not say that he carried them; I only contested the fact that Miller had the "best regular season team in the league in front of him. They were the best regular season team including Miller. However, would you have not traded skater rosters with any team in the league? I remember that team having some big holes that we often complained about even during the regular season.

[Weave]

GAA doesn't tell the whole story. The 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 teams were very offense-first. They went out of their way to crash the net and pinch the defense, and if that resulted in more odd man rushes the other way, it was Miller's job to take care of it. In a weird way it was a compliment to Miller that they were OK with giving up more scoring opportunities because they trusted him to take care of them. But that's still going to result in a higher GAA.

 

He's a good goalie. Is he good enough to play 70 games a year and lead a mediocre team to the Stanley Cup? No.

 

What is the point you are making?

 

The way I see it, Miller is exactly like most other starting goalies in the league. Give him a team that plays good defense and he'll post up very good numbers. Give him a team that plays so-so defense and he'll look very middle of the pack. And I think his career stats bear this out. Any of the other top 15 or so goalies in the league would have the same results IMO.

[Weave]

Do you remember 2006-07? They mostly traded high quality scoring chances and simply scored on more of them than their opponents. Their defense was deficient in their own end and "team defense" wasn't a term used too often. For Miller to have decent stats, he had to be playing pretty well.

 

However, I did not say that he carried them; I only contested the fact that Miller had the "best regular season team in the league in front of him. They were the best regular season team including Miller. However, would you have not traded skater rosters with any team in the league? I remember that team having some big holes that we often complained about even during the regular season.

 

I guess I remember 06-07 differently because I thought that team did a great job of limiting 2nd shots, quickly scooping up pucks after the initial chance and transitioning out of the zone. There may have been alot of skating in those games but my recollection is that it wasn't a back-and-forth of chances with Miller making the difference. It was more lopsided than that.

 

I'll have to do some surfing to see if my recollection is off base.

[Weave]

After doing some painfully repetitious calculator work to get average shots per game I came up with;

 

06-07 Sabres averaged 30.6 shots against per game. Last season, when Miller posted career best stats the Sabres averaged 31.7 shots against per game.

 

I realize there is more to defense than shots against per game, but I think it can be argued that the 06-07 team didn't leave Miller out hanging by himself nearly as much as we'd like to think. Last season is generally considered in hindsight to be a good year defensively for Buffalo but they gave up over a shot per game more than that defense-be-damned team from 06-07.

 

Until someone can show me data to convince me otherwise I stand by my assertion that this year is an average year for Miller and that last season was an aberation.