pi2000

ahhhH! fixed. hahaha

I'm OK with starting him on the 3rd line. This will shelter him from the tougher matchups. The long term plan should be for ROR to center the 3rd line. He'd be the perfect guy who can win draws in key situations, play defense, eat up minutes at the end of games, and chip in offensively.

Tank God! I'm so tankful he gets to play with a couple of studs. Which of these guys, as F1, is going to strike fear into opposing defensemen on puck retrievals? My kid's peewee team would be a favorable physical matchup.

Shortage of info? We have an entire season of data, how much do you consider acceptable? The Stanley Cup isn't awarded to the team who played best over the past 2, 3, 4, or 5 seasons. You have one season, 82 games to make the playoffs. Statistics accumulated over that timeframe matter. I use TRpm to illustrate which players contributed to the team's overall success, or lack thereof. And by "success" I mean wins and losses, which are quantified by how many goals you score and how many you give up... NOT SAT%. TRpm doesn't predict a players development, but it can tell you if the player is contributing to the team's success (wins/losses). Casual fans don't appreciate how important it is to play sound defensive hockey. Making a quality play to prevent a goal is just as important as scoring a goal, but it's not something that can be easily quantified. As a former player, when matching up against top offensive players, your job is to keep them to the outside. Let them shoot from distance and bad angles instead of challenging them one on one. This skews SAT%. Just because you're giving up shot attempts, doesn't mean you're playing poor defensively. Somebody brought up league standings based on goal diff vs. SAT%... have a look yourself: https://www.nhl.com/standings/2017/league- sorting by goal diff moves maybe a few teams up and down 2-3 spots at most, but the standings are almost perfectly aligned with goal team goal differential. SAT% - http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?report=teampercentages&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=shotAttemptsPctg- 3 of the top 4 teams aren't even going to make the playoffs! I've also repeatedly said that TRpm differences of single digits between players isn't very telling because of variables like matchups and zone starts, etc, but when you have a guy like ROR who takes just about all dzone draws with a +10 TRpm and a guy like Okposo with a -14 TRpm, it's a significant data point that shouldn't be ignored.

demoted already?

Exactly. Which is why I came up with TRpm.

Games are decided by goals. Scoring a goal is a quantifiable statistic. Preventing a goal is just as important as scoring a goal... so how do you quantify it? Plus/minus.

Collectively that line can do 1 maybe 2 pull-ups.

Who cares if it's unsustainable? He did it. I smell GM speak. Why do you think he's been slamming doors? Cuz the players aren't buying in to Phil.

I read this but I have to get to my game. I'll respond in depth probably after I get home in a few hours... and likely a few beers deep, so prepare for a mind-numbing awe inspiring response.

holy , that's amazing

Using plus minus to compare players on different teams is not a very useful comparison. This is why I came up with TRpm.. and I only use it to compare players on the same team. The numbers back up the eye test. Okposo is far and away the worst TRpm on the team... and we can all agree he's been horrible this season... TRpm just confirms it.

Using shot attempts to predict success is worse than plus minus. BUF as a team had better possession numbers this season than last, but look at the standings... look at the goal differential, look at all the minus players. If you look at standings over the years you'll see they normally shake out such that teams with the best goal differential are at the top of the standings and the team with the worst goal differential is almost always at the bottom. Goal differential goes hand in hand with plus minus. That said, if you ordered the teams.by SAT%, instead of goal differential, it would be very misleading. So when I look at a bad team like Buffalo and wonder why is their goal differential so poor... I ask myself who is most often on the ice when a goal is given up. Like you said goals matter, they matter more than anything. So it only makes sense to use plus minus as a measuring stick, even more so when comparing members of the same team.

Karlsson > Matthews I've watched a bunch of Preds games and yeah the style Housley talks about is the same as Nashville. The problem is that for whatever reason he's having trouble selling it to the players.

He'll be 22 next season.

So when grading out defensemen, you think goals is a better indicator than plus minus? Again, it's called Team Relative for a reason. You're only comparing teammates to eachother. It works better on bad teams to figure out which players are weighing the team down. On a good team you could have a negative TRpm but a positive pm. Which is less damning than a negative pm player with a negative TRpm.

Rip me.

Nobody is suggesting that he's getting moved 1 for 1 for a top pairing defenseman. That said, his trade value is still high due to his age and skill level. There are plenty of GMs who think they can get him back on track.

....interesting to re-read these predictions.

Disagree. He still a highly talented young prospect. JBOTs didn't draft him. If the right deal for a top pairing defenseman comes along and JBOTs asked about Nylander, I'm certain he'll be available for the right price.

I still think Nylander gets moved at some point here relatively soon.

Larsson needed to be gone 3 years ago, he's not an NHL player. He turns the puck over constantly... he can't catch a pass to save his life, he can't pass, he can't hit the net, he's not particularly quick or fast, he's not a shutdown guy, he's not big and mean, he has a negative TRpm... why he's in the lineup I have no idea. The only thing he's half-way decent at is face-offs at 53.7%.

That would be Josefson. Long term I think CM settles on #22 (after Larsson is launched this offseason).

I still enjoyed his interviews.

I doubt any of those guys reach free agency.