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Pimlach

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Everything posted by Pimlach

  1. Mitts is really the key to having a good top 6. JJP - Cozens - Mitts. If he plays like he did the last 2 months of last year, if that’s him, then we should be fine.
  2. Thanks. I have to check myself though as commercial business is different than what I really know, which is contracting with the Government. As for the MWBE mandates, the government asks for proof that X% of the contract dollars go to small businesses, minority owned, women owned, etc. And they need that proof before award. From my experience this mandate has turned out to be mostly a good thing.
  3. I am not sure how that works in the commercial world but in government contracts, when they ask contractors to bid a project that takes several years to perform, you include escalation (inflation) and cost of money, over that period. When things like labor rates go up the Contractor's must manage to that, the labor rate changes from year to year are not an opener for the contract. If the contractors labor rates increase he pays it out of his own reserve or from his fee (profit). He flows similar contracts to his major sub-tier suppliers to protect his estimates. Unless the scope of the contract changes (i.e. new requirements), the price established at contract award is the price. From the BN article, it appears they did not have all the bids in and all the suppliers selected and locked into a contract, so the numbers they started with for the project were incomplete and based on projections that are inaccurate. We could see more significant cost growth apparently. An example of good project management in this century: In St Louis, the current Busch stadium was being built literally right next door to the old one. The last season in the old stadium you could literally see the two stadiums sitting side by side. But they had to hold off on finishing the last sections of the new stadium until the old one was torn down. Why? Because the new structure was to share a small amount of the same ground that the old one was on. So, they had to wait until their last season ended (including playoffs) and then finish the last part in the late fall and winter to meet the opening day schedule. They put finishing touches on inside of those last sections at the start of the first season. The new stadium opened on time and then they spent the next few years taking down the old one and building a beautiful Ballpark Village complex on the site of the old stadium, it is literally across just one street from the new stadium. Talk about good schedule management and project management skills! https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/en/Journal/Issues/2005/10/03/Facilities/Stadiums-Overlap-Builds-Time-Pressure-Into-Schedule Today we are quick to point to inflation, labor issues, supply chain issues, but all those things had be to accounted for in past decades too.
  4. The bold I can agree with as being mostly is true. Which is why the contracts are set up to penalize and/or incentivize the contractors - the cost overruns typically will first come out of the defense contractors fee (profits). Once all the contractor fee is expired, and the governments funding reserve is expired, the contract goes to congress for evaluation - it either gets killed or they find more money by taking funds from another contract or even a future contract - the government has to evaluate their needs and the risk of proceeding or not. Sometimes these defense programs overrun because they are developing a new capability, utilizing advanced technology, and they run into unknown and unforeseen problems, sometimes the requirements are just too hard to achieve in the given schedule. That is a lot different than this situation. The stadium build is extremely complex to manage but they are not doing anything that hasn't been done many times before.
  5. Labor and material should be one of the first things that you verify and secure when entering into a contract like this, one with a critical schedule. Covid is getting to be an overused excuse but ok, no surprise there - just say the magic words "supply chain". The people managing this for Pegula are off to a terrible start, could it be why there was a change at the top?
  6. That may be true and yet another "sign of the times". I am well versed in government contracts - which includes how funding is obtained and budgeted, how proposals are prepared, how proposals are evaluated, what contractors must disclose about their cost estimates, and how risk is evaluated. In fact, I am an expert at it. The commercial world is different is some significant ways. Two big differences are that contractors can ask for any fee they want and the disclosure of cost estimating details are not as stringent. Still, this level of cost overrun this early in the process is concerning.
  7. True, and that has been said about many players that were were "finishers". Give me more two way players.
  8. Really? Then we would never build anything major or complicated to cost - ever. We will never building a new skyscraper, a bridge, a highway, a fighter jet, etc. There are ways to protect the suppliers and the Buyers from price in escalation and risk. There are ways to incentivize a contractor to keep costs down. What labor increases? The Bills are looking at almost 20% cost growth before a shovel hits the dirt and you think that is ok? At this early stage it is much more likely that they forgot key requirements that they have to meet, which is why they are still getting bids in.
  9. True to a point but the bids have to worth something. The contract should be "fixed price" and the General Contractors should have already gotten bids from their subs. When the major contractors are selected the proposals should be reviewed for truth in pricing - the pricing should have some sort of test for reasonableness and their should be a cash reserve for risk and to cover changes.
  10. That is the only way. You need pricing to be good for at least one year, in commercial work it is not rocket science - there should be no new inventions here.
  11. Another season like the last one is what I think we will see. He will dominate and helptake us to the next level.
  12. I had a great summer, as usual. I had my 65th great summer in a row with only one summer being not so good.
  13. What gets me is they are still getting bids from suppliers and contractors. All of that should have been done BEFORE they asked for and got approval for taxpayer money. The estimates should have been completed and reviewed. They need fixed price estimates that are good for several years.
  14. Combination of 1 and 2.
  15. None of the above. 12 goals, 26 points. Good two way game. 4th line
  16. Olofsson would be the finisher in this case.
  17. I have him in between 50 and 70 points. I just don’t know what line he fits on, probably a 3C, but maybe a winger on the second line, and we know he produced centering the 1st line … good player to have around. He is starting to use his size along with his skill, could be he best season ever coming. Looking forward to watching him.
  18. A little of each, there are so many it only makes sense. Back when malls were popular a lot of them stayed then shopped the next day.
  19. I want to add that he is going to be a steady 20-25 goal guy at some point in his career.
  20. Anytime the Sabres are good, very good, or scary good the crowd attendance is never a problem. The best it will ever be is about 25-30% Leaf’s/Canadian fans if the STH’s would not use these games to recoup costs. For that to happen the team has to be exciting and legit.
  21. Kroeger Kaleido's - The Matt Ellis of fake Oreo Cookies
  22. Ford Escort - the Matt Ellis of American cars.
  23. He had a good Corsi in his limited games for us but fans here as SS don't seem to like him. He was willing to fight for the team, and losing to Jeannot is what happens to pretty much everyone who tangle with him. He will start the season at 7D or 8D and he will see action. He could be moved at the trade deadline if Ryan Johnson surprises us and is ready quickly.
  24. Why do you say Buffalo cannot support 2 Pro teams?
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