LTS

40lbs at a time? dayumn.

I mean.. they have 16, but I guess that's not important. ?

It's something that Tom Hanks communes with.

The problem is Glen Beck is a part of the machine. MSM external to the United States and not focused 90% on reporting US "news" is likely to be less corrupt. Less corrupt, but still corrupt in some ways. There's little doubt that French news stations will be painting a certain picture of the US to help French politics, as would other countries. The real problem is that no one really reports the truth, they report their interpretation of the truth. It's damn near impossible to get an unbiased opinion on events that occurred. At some point an editor has to make a decision about what facts are in or out. That's the bias point even in the most non-biased reporting. It doesn't help that the US population no longer wants to spend more than 15 seconds absorbing information. Can you distill it to 140 characters? How about a meme? An emoji? We're back to hieroglyphics for communication. Insane.

Cold Brew is less acidic than hot brewed coffee. It's much easier on the body. I love cold brewing and can't believe I neglected to mention it. Next year I plan on dedicating a small 3 gallon keg to it in my tap system. (I can't fit a 5 gallon keg in there that would hold beer). So 3 beer taps and 1 coffee tap. ?

The entire concept of this social media bill is garbage. How many investigators do they need to hire and who gets paid to look into it? "Please list your social media accounts:" - I have no social media accounts. Now someone needs to verify if I am telling the truth? How much work do you need to do to find my Twitter account or Facebook or some other social media platform where I don't link it to the same email or use my real name? Yeah...

The whole MSM thing is really bugging me lately. I've begun looking for news sources that have no real basis in the US to see how things differ. Of course I'm not sure that the same public mind manipulation isn't being utilized in every media market. Certainly not so much left vs. right as in the US but more pro/anti US.

Something something, secondary scoring. I can live with that.

I'd be worried about this team if I thought this was the best they could play. But I don't think that this is the best that they can play. I'm just waiting for what comes next.. I'll miss part of this as my kid skates in his first real Varsity game tonight. He'll be lucky if he gets 2 minutes of ice time over the game, but it'll be awesome to watch. Let's Go Buffalo!

Where does one find this coffee?

Just before I got back on here tonight I found an article about him. I had been reading his name as Mc-Gee-Oh and it wasn't clicking. As soon as I saw the ref reference I knew who it was. I was a fan of his when he was a ref. No reason other than he seemed fairly affable.

For the past two years the PP has been fantastic but they would lose. I'm fine with this right now. Granted, I hope it gets better. This was the most concerned I had been. Montreal looks like they have the Sabres number on the forecheck, even going back to last game, and the Sabres found a way to win... again. It's good. real good.

I feel like I should know who this is.. but I don't.

I completely understand it. Believe me. My point, in my response to Joe Stats, PhD, was that he contradicted himself. He claimed it was possible to live within the variance (be an outlier, anomaly, exception, so on) and also that you will invariably lose. Those are mutually exclusive of each other. If there's any chance of living within the variance then there's no way it can be invariable. Analyzing data though an analysis of past results used to predict likely future outcomes. However, when historical data is created it is fixed by the influences of the point in time it was created. As such, significant shifts in influences can relegate data to being useless for future predictions because the environment has changed. You can attempt to control for it but you can only do so if the data that you had was properly controlled. My point about Gretzky was that until he came along there was really no one who scored like he did. So, if you were using analytics he would have continued to be an outlier. The idea that two players, when teamed up, might also work in the same way is not insane. It might not be probable, but it certainly is possible. When someone says that they WILL regress to the norm, that's not accurate. They may LIKELY regress back but we all know that they might not or at least not within a time frame that is pertinent to discussing the team today. For example, if the Eichel-Skinner combo continues to put up numbers outside of the expected Botterill will be forced to act before any regression occurs. He may choose to accept that the MOST likely outcome will be that those two will not be the same again once Skinner is signed. Skinner's agent, I'm sure, is going to take the opposite view. Even then, they might be great next year, or the year after, and the year after that. They could continue to be great and eventually someone will find the data point that explains it. Until then, they'll appear like outliers. What it really boils down to, in a nutshell, is that you can use data models to predict the likely outcomes and if you restrict yourself to those likely outcomes it's basically taking the safe path. The risk is always in trying to find the exception or at least get an exception long enough to make a difference.

Was never a coffee guy until we went to Costa Rica. Then it was dark and strong.. and it's been that way ever since. I usually only drink 20-24oz in the morning and I'm done for the day. Most days it's through the burr grinder into the coffee maker. Some days it's into the french press. On really rare occasions it goes into a stovetop espresso maker. I like the San Francisco Dark from Trader Joes. Peet's Major Dickason is excellent. Just picked up the Peet's Holiday Blend, always love that. Got to step into a Peet's store one morning when I was passing through Portland, OR. Wish I could have stayed. I'm a huge fan of Peet's coffee overall.

Wish I could... got conflicts. Hoping that today results in a very loud pro-Sabres fan experience. It's a day off for most, it's Friday afternoon. NO need to sell your tickets to Habs fans. Let's Go Buffalo!

Whatever scientific method you used to deduce my level of education was flawed. Enjoy your arrogance though. I am sure it will serve you well. Just curious though, before I go... If I there's a chance that I could experience a positive or negative variance over the course of my entire life, then how is it possible that I am invariably going to lose if I live long enough? I don't want to assume that while you were filling your head with ways to put people down that you failed to study logic, but it would appear that you don't understand how it works.

The "tank" didn't fail. (I still hate the use of that word for what the Sabres did.) The first rebuilder did. Let's all move on now.

First of all, "when calculated appropriately" is just a ridiculous political phrase to use. Is that also saying that when they don't accurately predict what happened the model was not calculated appropriately? Yes, of course it is. Of course in saying that we must also allow that when a model that usually predicts outcomes fails to predict an outcome that it should be altered. As such, no model is infallible. As such, it cannot be relied upon 100%. Data models predict probable outcomes. That's not predicting the future. And for what it's worth.. if data could predict the future then why does it not? Don't you think we should be using that data to stop mass shootings and other atrocities? All of that aside, what you did not address was my point that there are influences to the data points that are collected that can dramatically alter any historical context such that you must start over with defining what the new norm is. Such as, changes to goaltending equipment size. Put another way, and to be completely stupid about it. Any model that predicts SH% would be useless if the NHL changed the net size to 7x5 tomorrow. You'd have to start over recalculating what the expected SH% would be and that would require data points so that you could run an analysis and get your norm plus your standard deviations and all that.

Yep. At least the Sabres secured a win to keep me from going crazy on the Spectrum people right now for 72 hours of intermittent internet service. Not happy they backed off in the game, but the first period was a blast. The Flyers got a wake up call in the intermission. Nothing else to say... that's 7.. no way you can complain right now.

If analytics were as big back in the day... when do you think people would have predicted that Gretzky or Lemieux were never going to regress back to the mean? Some players set new norms. I know those are extremes, but the underlying point is that sometimes some factors come together that cause an outlier condition to occur. So, while you say it absolutely WILL happen, that's not necessarily true. It is more that it's probable it will happen. However, there needs to be an allowance for what happens when certain factors combine and potentially break away from the statistical norm. This is why arguing metrics is pointless. It's good for comparisons and projections but it does not predict the future. The shrinking of goaltender equipment could account for an increase in SH%. If it does, arguing the metrics from 3 years ago is pointless because the game has changed. Next year a change in the glove could increase SH%. Any of these factors will play into it. Even the same player in the same situation will trend one way or another in relation to changes on the ice. So you can say it WILL happen and I think that's where people take umbrage. You say it as an absolute. It's not.

Wouldn't that be skewed because the Central teams play the Pacific teams more often? I'm not sure that's how the season has played out yet. But over time if you play a bad division more it should. What's the Central record against the Atlantic?

It's why no one should give you guff about posting pictures lounging high above the world either.

Wow.. that's just a comically bad take.

I was at the Barnaby Line Brawl game... I can't remember which year they blasted the Flyers in the playoffs, but I was there, in a suite next to the Flyer families. Some of the best games I have been to are the Sabres beating up the on the Flyers. I won't be attending tonight, but I'll take the joy of watching on TV. Let's Go Buffalo.