Big Guava Posted yesterday at 05:32 AM Report Posted yesterday at 05:32 AM (edited) Sabres team save percentage is currently .908 and it's the 8th best in the NHL right now. Not sure what's going on, but goaltending league wide is brutal this year. Only 14 teams are above .900 and 10 are below .890 with the Blues at an unfathomable .840 Maybe they should trade for Levi...his .872 last year would look great over there. In comparison, last year the Sabres were 30th at .888 Edited yesterday at 05:37 AM by Big Guava 1 1 Quote
tom webster Posted yesterday at 12:58 PM Report Posted yesterday at 12:58 PM (edited) 7 hours ago, Big Guava said: Sabres team save percentage is currently .908 and it's the 8th best in the NHL right now. Not sure what's going on, but goaltending league wide is brutal this year. Only 14 teams are above .900 and 10 are below .890 with the Blues at an unfathomable .840 Maybe they should trade for Levi...his .872 last year would look great over there. In comparison, last year the Sabres were 30th at .888 Not sure what you are talking about. Last year only ten teams finished above .900 and Buffalo finished 31st st .879 ahead of only the Flyers. Edited yesterday at 01:02 PM by tom webster Quote
Jorcus Posted yesterday at 02:03 PM Report Posted yesterday at 02:03 PM 8 hours ago, Big Guava said: Sabres team save percentage is currently .908 and it's the 8th best in the NHL right now. Not sure what's going on, but goaltending league wide is brutal this year. Only 14 teams are above .900 and 10 are below .890 with the Blues at an unfathomable .840 Maybe they should trade for Levi...his .872 last year would look great over there. In comparison, last year the Sabres were 30th at .888 I posted this in another thread but this is a continuation of a trend that has been going on for a number of years. I took the save percentage of .910 which used to be what you could expect out of almost any decent starting goalie. The number of goal tenders who have bested this number has declined drastically over a fairly short amount of time. Year ending number of goalies above .910 save percentage. AHL numbers 25 10 16 24 16 21 23 17 19 22 26 18 21 25 9 20 30 17 19 29 17 18 31 26 I could go back further but the number seems to hoover around that 30 mark. So what is causing this. Are goaltenders worse? Are shooters better? Has the NHL asked the refs to change the way they call the game? I was just curious so I put in the AHL numbers. The 9 was the covid year so you can pretty much chuck that one. Going back a few more years in the AHL it was in the low 20's. I lean toward the shooters getting better causing this trend but not really certain about that would have to dig up some more stats. 1 Quote
Big Guava Posted yesterday at 02:09 PM Author Report Posted yesterday at 02:09 PM 4 minutes ago, Jorcus said: I posted this in another thread but this is a continuation of a trend that has been going on for a number of years. I took the save percentage of .910 which used to be what you could expect out of almost any decent starting goalie. The number of goal tenders who have bested this number has declined drastically over a fairly short amount of time. Year ending number of goalies above .910 save percentage. AHL numbers 25 10 16 24 16 21 23 17 19 22 26 18 21 25 9 20 30 17 19 29 17 18 31 26 I could go back further but the number seems to hoover around that 30 mark. So what is causing this. Are goaltenders worse? Are shooters better? Has the NHL asked the refs to change the way they call the game? I was just curious so I put in the AHL numbers. The 9 was the covid year so you can pretty much chuck that one. Going back a few more years in the AHL it was in the low 20's. I lean toward the shooters getting better causing this trend but not really certain about that would have to dig up some more stats. Is the shooting percentage higher league wide? If the shooters were getting better it would show up there somehow. Quote
LGR4GM Posted yesterday at 02:12 PM Report Posted yesterday at 02:12 PM Goalies are worse because analytics and coaches figured out more successful ways to generate good shots. Cross ice passing, passes from behind the net, point shots that are meant for deflection, even screening. I think it's an evolution of how offense works and goalies can only do so much. That's my opinion. 2 Quote
tom webster Posted yesterday at 02:17 PM Report Posted yesterday at 02:17 PM 3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: Goalies are worse because analytics and coaches figured out more successful ways to generate good shots. Cross ice passing, passes from behind the net, point shots that are meant for deflection, even screening. I think it's an evolution of how offense works and goalies can only do so much. That's my opinion. I think this is at least partly correct. Also, as I stated up thread, this year is significantly better than last year, although a very small sample size. Quote
LGR4GM Posted yesterday at 02:19 PM Report Posted yesterday at 02:19 PM Pre-shot movement is the next analytics frontier. Idk how goalies will adapt. Quote
DarthEbriate Posted yesterday at 02:25 PM Report Posted yesterday at 02:25 PM 1 hour ago, tom webster said: Not sure what you are talking about. Last year only ten teams finished above .900 and Buffalo finished 31st st .879 ahead of only the Flyers. Last year and this season (so far) have been abnormally low for team save percentages. We're still early in 25-26 so there's likely some clutter and teams will tighten up a bit as the season goes on, but it's notable. Team percentages also include empty net goals, so you could be seeing a bit more "risk + screw it, we're down 2 with 5 minutes left, let's pull the goalie early" goals than in previous seasons. Here are team save percentages going back a bit: 2025 .890 2024 .893 2023 .898 2022 .899 2021 .902 2020 .903 2019 .905 2018 .905 2017 .908 2016 .910 2015 .910 3 on 3 OT in effect 2014 .911 And you go back to the dead puck era thinking it'll be monstrously higher... No, not really. (Makes you appreciate Hasek all the more.) 2004 .908 2003 .906 2002 .905 2001 .901 2000 .902 1999 .906 As to why. I don't think it's the goaltenders themselves: they are positionally sound, make spectacular saves, etc. There are subpar goalies, yes. But we've seen much better shot selection in recent years. Teams aren't just shooting from the blue line and hoping, they're much more patient with the puck. Power plays have had some abnormally high success rates (three teams had a 28+ PP% last year and the league average was over 21% -- which is rising in general in recent years). Since it was introduced 3 on 3 overtimes have changed from "skate and shoot" to possess and exit the zone, but maintain possession at all costs -- working for the high danger shot. (Luukkonen was great last night and made 5 saves, but prior to that this season the Sabres had given up 3 goals on 5 shots to rock a .400 sv%). I think in general it's the offensive coaches putting analytics and video to good effect. 3 1 Quote
tom webster Posted yesterday at 02:41 PM Report Posted yesterday at 02:41 PM 9 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said: Last year and this season (so far) have been abnormally low for team save percentages. We're still early in 25-26 so there's likely some clutter and teams will tighten up a bit as the season goes on, but it's notable. Team percentages also include empty net goals, so you could be seeing a bit more "risk + screw it, we're down 2 with 5 minutes left, let's pull the goalie early" goals than in previous seasons. Here are team save percentages going back a bit: 2025 .890 2024 .893 2023 .898 2022 .899 2021 .902 2020 .903 2019 .905 2018 .905 2017 .908 2016 .910 2015 .910 3 on 3 OT in effect 2014 .911 And you go back to the dead puck era thinking it'll be monstrously higher... No, not really. (Makes you appreciate Hasek all the more.) 2004 .908 2003 .906 2002 .905 2001 .901 2000 .902 1999 .906 As to why. I don't think it's the goaltenders themselves: they are positionally sound, make spectacular saves, etc. There are subpar goalies, yes. But we've seen much better shot selection in recent years. Teams aren't just shooting from the blue line and hoping, they're much more patient with the puck. Power plays have had some abnormally high success rates (three teams had a 28+ PP% last year and the league average was over 21% -- which is rising in general in recent years). Since it was introduced 3 on 3 overtimes have changed from "skate and shoot" to possess and exit the zone, but maintain possession at all costs -- working for the high danger shot. (Luukkonen was great last night and made 5 saves, but prior to that this season the Sabres had given up 3 goals on 5 shots to rock a .400 sv%). I think in general it's the offensive coaches putting analytics and video to good effect. I didn’t mean to imply that the drop in save percentage wasn’t accurate, just that it didn’t start this year. Access to new data has changed a lot of what has always been believed about all sports. Teams are adapting and changing the way games are played. It’s actually quite fascinating. 1 Quote
matter2003 Posted yesterday at 02:43 PM Report Posted yesterday at 02:43 PM (edited) 38 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: Goalies are worse because analytics and coaches figured out more successful ways to generate good shots. Cross ice passing, passes from behind the net, point shots that are meant for deflection, even screening. I think it's an evolution of how offense works and goalies can only do so much. That's my opinion. You are actually right...downloaded the data from Moneypuck and there is a very strong correlation between save percentage dropping and high danger chances increasing. | Season | Save % | Goals/Game | Shots/Game | xG/Shot | High-Danger Shots/Game | Avg GSAx (per 60) | | :------- | :----: | :--------: | :--------: | :-----: | :--------------------: | :---------------: | | 2010-11 | 0.913 | 5.48 | 30.8 | 0.088 | 7.9 | +0.12 | | 2011-12 | 0.914 | 5.32 | 30.7 | 0.087 | 7.8 | +0.15 | | 2012-13 | 0.912 | 5.44 | 30.1 | 0.089 | 8.0 | +0.10 | | 2013-14 | 0.914 | 5.46 | 30.6 | 0.089 | 8.1 | +0.13 | | 2014-15 | 0.915 | 5.46 | 30.4 | 0.089 | 8.2 | +0.14 | | 2015-16 | 0.915 | 5.42 | 30.2 | 0.089 | 8.3 | +0.11 | | 2016-17 | 0.913 | 5.53 | 30.3 | 0.090 | 8.5 | +0.09 | | 2017-18 | 0.912 | 5.94 | 31.8 | 0.091 | 8.7 | +0.06 | | 2018-19 | 0.910 | 6.02 | 31.5 | 0.092 | 8.8 | +0.04 | | 2019-20 | 0.910 | 6.04 | 31.3 | 0.092 | 8.9 | +0.03 | | 2020-21 | 0.907 | 6.23 | 30.7 | 0.093 | 9.0 | +0.01 | | 2021-22 | 0.904 | 6.36 | 31.1 | 0.094 | 9.2 | +0.00 | | 2022-23 | 0.904 | 6.60 | 31.9 | 0.095 | 9.4 | –0.02 | | 2023-24 | 0.903 | 6.73 | 31.6 | 0.096 | 9.5 | –0.03 | | 2024-25* | 0.900 | 6.81 | 31.8 | 0.097 | 9.6 | –0.04 | The correlation is -.91486 between Save Percentage and High Danger Shot %, meaning as high danger shots increase, save percentage drops. A perfect correlation is 1.0 or -1.0 in this case, since it's a decrease, so this is extremely strong. Essentially, this shows that 91.5% of the the variance in save percentage is caused by high danger shot quality, leaving only about 8.5% to other things. Edited yesterday at 02:51 PM by matter2003 2 1 Quote
DarthEbriate Posted yesterday at 02:53 PM Report Posted yesterday at 02:53 PM 5 minutes ago, tom webster said: I didn’t mean to imply that the drop in save percentage wasn’t accurate, just that it didn’t start this year. Access to new data has changed a lot of what has always been believed about all sports. Teams are adapting and changing the way games are played. It’s actually quite fascinating. Yes -- my response to your initial comment was that if you only looked at last year you wouldn't see it as a big anomaly. But taken together, last year and this year have seen a really big jump beyond the existing trend. It won't compete with @matter2003's high danger data, but another thing to take into account: goalie gear restrictions. Hasek and Brodeur famously were rocking sweaters 4 sizes too big, etc. But since 2005-06 post-lockout, there have been multiple changes to goalie pad sizes and even an additional jersey regulation in 2018. Just like the other sports -- the Shield wants more offense. Quote
matter2003 Posted yesterday at 02:54 PM Report Posted yesterday at 02:54 PM 1 minute ago, DarthEbriate said: Yes -- my response to your initial comment was that if you only looked at last year you wouldn't see it as a big anomaly. But taken together, last year and this year have seen a really big jump beyond the existing trend. It won't compete with @matter2003's high danger data, but another thing to take into account: goalie gear restrictions. Hasek and Brodeur famously were rocking sweaters 4 sizes too big, etc. But since 2005-06 post-lockout, there have been multiple changes to goalie pad sizes and even an additional jersey regulation in 2018. Just like the other sports -- the Shield wants more offense. That would be part of the 8.5% that falls into the "other" bucket 😉 1 Quote
Taro T Posted yesterday at 06:21 PM Report Posted yesterday at 06:21 PM 3 hours ago, DarthEbriate said: Yes -- my response to your initial comment was that if you only looked at last year you wouldn't see it as a big anomaly. But taken together, last year and this year have seen a really big jump beyond the existing trend. It won't compete with @matter2003's high danger data, but another thing to take into account: goalie gear restrictions. Hasek and Brodeur famously were rocking sweaters 4 sizes too big, etc. But since 2005-06 post-lockout, there have been multiple changes to goalie pad sizes and even an additional jersey regulation in 2018. Just like the other sports -- the Shield wants more offense. And that was the best thing about THE lockout. By introducing a salary cap salaries wouldn't go crazy with an increase in offensive stats (unless it makes the sport more profitable, in which case the owners will also get more money and not just the goal scorers getting it all). The owners getting their lunches handed to them in the 90's CBA negotiations had a HUGE role in the onset of the dead puck era. And, in general, the owners wanted nothing to do with more offense because more offense resulted in more in salaries than it did in revenue increases. 1 Quote
K-9 Posted 23 hours ago Report Posted 23 hours ago 5 hours ago, LGR4GM said: Pre-shot movement is the next analytics frontier. Idk how goalies will adapt. I hope they don’t adapt at all. It’s already a farce with the over-sized equipment they get away with. Quote
shrader Posted 23 hours ago Report Posted 23 hours ago 6 hours ago, Jorcus said: I could go back further but the number seems to hoover around that 30 mark. In a thread about goalies sucking, this is the greatest typo of all time. But yeah, you’re dead on. This isn’t new. The dead puck era died a long time ago. 1 Quote
bob_sauve28 Posted 22 hours ago Report Posted 22 hours ago This is a great Ted talk about how and why athletes do better over time. I can’t help but think it might apply here, though I totally admit I have no evidence. We all know that goalie equipment got way better from the early 1980’s when Bob Sauve was playing. That made goalies better by the 90’s. Just wonder if the sticks shooters are using have also taken a recent bigger step forward. I know they have gotten better in the past but has there been a recent step forward in stick technology? On top of that, has training in shooting improved? I know baseball players have programs for biomechanics that improve them, hockey players surely must also 1 Quote
LGR4GM Posted 18 hours ago Report Posted 18 hours ago (edited) 4 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said: This is a great Ted talk about how and why athletes do better over time. I can’t help but think it might apply here, though I totally admit I have no evidence. We all know that goalie equipment got way better from the early 1980’s when Bob Sauve was playing. That made goalies better by the 90’s. Just wonder if the sticks shooters are using have also taken a recent bigger step forward. I know they have gotten better in the past but has there been a recent step forward in stick technology? On top of that, has training in shooting improved? I know baseball players have programs for biomechanics that improve them, hockey players surely must also Kinda. Shooters are better but teams and goalies are better at not giving them open looks. That's where the baseball part breaks down. I can't speak to stick tech. Idk if that's peaked in terms of flex/load they can put into a stick. Shot location and selection is really important. The slapper only has limited uses versus a wrister which gets a bit more play. Guys can load that wrister with more power and accuracy. But location is key according to all analytics and eye tests. Also, idk, I'm spitballing here. Edited 18 hours ago by LGR4GM 1 Quote
bob_sauve28 Posted 6 hours ago Report Posted 6 hours ago 11 hours ago, LGR4GM said: Kinda. Shooters are better but teams and goalies are better at not giving them open looks. That's where the baseball part breaks down. I can't speak to stick tech. Idk if that's peaked in terms of flex/load they can put into a stick. Shot location and selection is really important. The slapper only has limited uses versus a wrister which gets a bit more play. Guys can load that wrister with more power and accuracy. But location is key according to all analytics and eye tests. Also, idk, I'm spitballing here. A wrist shot is a really specialized process, not entirely different from pitching a baseball. I was practicing with a goalie years ago and he would start to move to where I was going to shoot before I was even shooting. Obviously I was not going to score like that. Then I watched how Jack Eichel shoots and he has this sweeping wrist shot that begins way back behind him and gets released in front of him and I emulated that and it worked really well. Not so much for speed of shot but for deception. I was skating in over blueline and let fly a wrister, not super hard, but low to stick side and goalie never moved. He just could not pick up where shot was going coming off the blade and my body language did not give it away. I also could choose where to shoot all the way up until release. I bring this up because now they are using AI and computer biomechanic programs with players wearing sensors to map out their shots and offer improvements. In baseball pitchers it has improved performance a lot. That video I posted also made a big deal about how athlete's bodies are more specialized. Do NHL scouts measures players arms or whatever body part they feel is important for them to have great shots? I'd be surprised if they didn't. Maybe Zac Benson's arms are not "shooters" arms or something and that's why he fell in draft. And I'd be shocked if stick technology has not been improved to help shooting. Maybe in this period of hockey history shooters have regained the edge and goalies will get new skills and equipment or whatever to take back the edge. Quote
msw2112 Posted 2 hours ago Report Posted 2 hours ago (edited) 4 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said: Maybe in this period of hockey history shooters have regained the edge and goalies will get new skills and equipment or whatever to take back the edge. I agree with this. Sports, like life, is cyclical. In football, it was all passing, and then, a couple of years ago, as defenses changed to defend the pass better, a lot of teams went back to focusing more on the run. The Bills and Eagles are good examples of this. The same types of things happen in hockey. Scoring trends up for a few years, then teams adjust to play more defense, new goaltending techniques and/or equipment emerge, etc. and scoring trends down. I'm curious to see what happens with goalie size. In recent years, the big 6'5" goalies like UPL were in vogue. Now it seems like there are more "average" sized goalies starting to emerge. Not sure if it's reality or just my perception. And in life - moustaches are back in style and beards have been popular in the last few years....argyle socks come and go every couple of decades....wide legged jeans, etc. I'm getting too old to stay on top of the trends (and maybe just don't give a sh*t anymore, but I can see what my kids wear). But hockey, like anything else, will shift in one direction and then reverse the trend in a few years. Edited 2 hours ago by msw2112 1 Quote
pi2000 Posted 1 hour ago Report Posted 1 hour ago Rule changes over the past 10 years have favored goal scoring... which results in worsening save percentages. Quote
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