Fixing the power play

[dudacek]

9 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

 

The last time we had a really good PP (if I remember correctly) we had ROR on the team. This was key. Now we can argue that "face offs don't matter" but winning that offensive zone draw and getting instantly set up will increase your PP percentages without a doubt. 

 

 

9 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Entries and faceoff/possession at the start of the power play are the first two issues. Resolve those and they can get up to 18%.

 

 

And this is where Josh Norris comes in: 61.2% on PP faceoffs last year.

He's also effective on the PP in general: he averaged 3 minutes a game last year and his career goals per 60 on the PP is 2.83

These are the Sabres numbers from last year in that stat:

• Zucker 3.16
• Thompson 1.90
• Benson 1.70
• Peterka 1.61
• Krebs 1.46
• Tuch 0.95

 

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

Yes, they need to be willing to have more than just Zucker crashing the net.  (Meant to include that in the tome above.)  That's why Benson is my 1st choice to play the bumper.  He sees the ice well and is one of only 2-3 players that goes to the net religiously.

 

This. Or maybe Quinn.

Bumper is the most unsettled, least effective spot on the unit. it's a spot that some teams utilize to deadly effect.

You need quick hands and quick reads to make sudden plays in tight, the ability to find seams and create space, and an accurate shot.

Benson can read plays and pass in traffic better than any other forward, but he lacks separation and a killer shot.

Quinn has the hand skills, but frequently isn't sudden enough. Still he creates separation and has a deadly wrister.

I think you lean into one of those guys, hoping Benson's shot has improved, or Quinn's willingness to get to the net and make good puck decisions has returned.

Edited 5 hours ago by dudacek

[dudacek]

Another player who is surprisingly ineffective on the PP is Alex Tuch.

As in "doesn't deserve the ice time he gets"

198 NHL forwards got 100 minutes of PP time last year. Tuch's ranking:

• Goals: tied with 15 others at 146th
• Points: tied with 8 others at 124th
• Goals per 60: 160th
• Points per 60: 145th

This aren't new numbers. He's averaged 4 goals and 10 assists on the PP over the past 3 seasons despite being second in ice time over that period by a wide margin.

You could make he argument he's there for tips, entries and retrievals — which he should be good at — but he's not succeeding

[PASabreFan]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

Lame.

We may have to bag skate you to get you into regular season form.

I'll get there.

But, really, it's not our job. I do understand why some fans would look at our front office, our coaches and our roster and say, "Only I can fix it."

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, PASabreFan said:

I'll get there.

But, really, it's not our job. I do understand why some fans would look at our front office, our coaches and our roster and say, "Only I can fix it."

What, now you're accusing some of us of being Bob Woods?

Interesting.

Or are we Adam Oates?

[dudacek]

Just now, PASabreFan said:

I'll get there.

But, really, it's not our job. I do understand why some fans would look at our front office, our coaches and our roster and say, "Only I can fix it."

Speaking for myself — but I don't think it's a stretch to project onto others — of course it's not our job, it's an interest and a form of personal entertainment.

 

[PASabreFan]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Speaking for myself — but I don't think it's a stretch to project onto others — of course it's not our job, it's an interest and a form of personal entertainment.

 

The analogies I've used over the years are many. But can you imagine being a fan of a band, and you enhance your enjoyment of being a fan of that band by rewriting all of their songs so they don't suck?

[dudacek]

46 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

The analogies I've used over the years are many. But can you imagine being a fan of a band, and you enhance your enjoyment of being a fan of that band by rewriting all of their songs so they don't suck?

I don’t have to imagine, there are song edits and album rearrangements and mashups all over the internet.

You don’t know people who say “great book/show/movie, but I hated what they did with the character…”?

Or walk into a house or garden and say “what a beautiful spot, you know what would make it even better…”

It might not be your thing but it’s just a common manifestation of the creative aspect of human nature.

Edited 2 hours ago by dudacek

[That Aud Smell]

2 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

I'll get there.

But, really, it's not our job. I do understand why some fans would look at our front office, our coaches and our roster and say, "Only I can fix it."

An interesting philosophical (metaphysical?) perspective.

As I think this board makes clear, a lot of fans (supporters? 💀) express their fandom - at least in part - by carefully analyzing what works and doesn’t work with the club’s personnel, strategies, etc.

A tale as old as time, really. “Monday Morning” or “Armchair” quarterbacks have been around for decades.

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

The analogies I've used over the years are many. But can you imagine being a fan of a band, and you enhance your enjoyment of being a fan of that band by rewriting all of their songs so they don't suck?

I don’t think the foo sh1ts with this. Not even a little bit.

55 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I don’t have to imagine, there are song edits and album rearrangements and mashups all over the internet.

You don’t know people who say “great book/show/movie, but I hated what they did with the character…”?

Or walk into a house or garden and say “what a beautiful spot, you know what would make it even better…”

It might not be your thing but it’s just a common manifestation of the creative aspect of human nature.

Okay - a little bit.

[That Aud Smell]

The essential, fundamental distinctions between pro sports fandom and music fandom are so vast that I reflexively dismissed the metaphor out of hand.

[That Aud Smell]

Like, you do hear people credibly say: “The Ramones? Sure they were great. But the best DIY punk band ever played in the So Cal valley in the 70s. They never made it big.”

You will never hear someone credibly say: “Tom Brady? Yeah, he’s great. But the best QB ever knocked around in a semipro league in Texas in the 1980s.”

Edited 2 hours ago by That Aud Smell

[mjd1001]

17 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Not running Cozens out there because of his salary or because he felt he was paid to score goals will help a ton. He was out of place at the bumper or near the point. 
 

If PP1 is Dahlin and whomever, with Tage in his office and Zucker net front is the best option. Who is on the half wall driving the PP is unknown, but it can’t be worse than Cozens. Maybe it’s McLeod? I don’t see a natural playmaker in that spot and it is why I am concerned the unit will struggle this year.  Maybe Tuch will keep it simple and Dahlin can work miracles?

My previous favorite topic, Cozens and how he hurt the Sabres so much. As far as helping the PP, Getting rid of Cozens is step #1.  

In the 20 or so games after he was traded, the Sabres were 13 for 52 on the PP without him (25%, which would have ranked about 6th or 7th in the entire league).  In the time he WAS with the team, they were about 16.9% with him (5th worse in the league).

Finding a guy who can score more than him, or at least someone who isn't a black hole out there (once the puck goes in to Cozens, it never comes back out.)

How much did he hurt the Sabres PP?

Well the eye test tells me he didn't have vision or passing ability to set up anyone (not all, but many of his PP assists were incidental, not intentional), and many of us think he doesn't see the ice well.

As for the stats?

-In his time with the Sabres, he is 2nd among forward in PP time (only Tage has more), so he has had tons of opportunity. Most of it on PP unit #1.

-In almost 760 minutes of PP ice time with the Sabres over 5 years, he had a total of 12 PP goals. He averages about 2.5 PP goals per year. There are about 180 other forwards in the league with more than 12 PP goals over the same time, many with LESS ice time than Cozens had on the PP.

-He averaged 0.95 goals per 60 on the PP for his career. Who on the team is better than that? Benson, Quinn, Greenway, Tuch, Thompson, Zucker...along with a bunch of guys no longer with the team (Reinhart, Okposo, VO, Skinner, Peterka, and Mitts to name the most prominent ones)

BTW, Josh Norris in a pretty big 200+ game sample size is at 2.8 goals per 60 on the PP, scoring at almost 3 times the rate of Cozens.

-107 guys over the time Cozens has been in the NHL have had over 750 minutes of ice time on the PP.  Where does Cozens rank in terms of goals among those 107 guys?  106th.  2nd last. The only guy who scored less PP goals than him with that much ice time was Ryan Strome, but he only had 1 less goal than Cozens but had 16 more assists. 

-Go back to last year after he got hurt in the fight vs Philly for one additional example:  In the In the 4 games BEFORE he got hurt Cozens was on the powerplay. The sabres scored ZERO PP goals in any of those 4 games.  In the 2 games Cozens missed, the Sabres scored PP goals in both of those games.  When he came back he went right back on PP#1 and they went another 4 games without scoring a PP goal.

-In the past decade, 10 forwards have over 500 minutes PP time for the Sabres (Cozens is one of them). Cozens PP shooting percentage?  9.6%.  The rest of the forwards combined? 16.3% (none of the other ones are under 10%, just Cozens.)

Needless to say, since he has been in the NHL, Cozens is likely the worst forward in the entire league in PP production that got used on a regular basis.  Zucker had 11 PP goals in one season with the Sabres, 1 less than Cozens had his entire career here.

Edited 4 minutes ago by mjd1001

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, Taro T said:

Yes, they need to be willing to have more than just Zucker crashing the net.  (Meant to include that in the tome above.)  That's why Benson is my 1st choice to play the bumper.  He sees the ice well and is one of only 2-3 players that goes to the net religiously.

He's not ready. He needs to be faster in his decision making and needs to improve the accuracy of his shot. Eventually I could see it, but that's a complicated spot to play effectively. Effective bumper needs to be aware of everyone all the time. 

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

 

And this is where Josh Norris comes in: 61.2% on PP faceoffs last year.

He's also effective on the PP in general: he averaged 3 minutes a game last year and his career goals per 60 on the PP is 2.83

These are the Sabres numbers from last year in that stat:

• Zucker 3.16
• Thompson 1.90
• Benson 1.70
• Peterka 1.61
• Krebs 1.46
• Tuch 0.95

 

 

This. Or maybe Quinn.

Bumper is the most unsettled, least effective spot on the unit. it's a spot that some teams utilize to deadly effect.

You need quick hands and quick reads to make sudden plays in tight, the ability to find seams and create space, and an accurate shot.

Benson can read plays and pass in traffic better than any other forward, but he lacks separation and a killer shot.

Quinn has the hand skills, but frequently isn't sudden enough. Still he creates separation and has a deadly wrister.

I think you lean into one of those guys, hoping Benson's shot has improved, or Quinn's willingness to get to the net and make good puck decisions has returned.

Yes, Norris is worth a shot. Maybe it helps. Definitely need someone who can win that draw more often than not.

Regarding the bumper, like my other comment, it's a veteran spot. We think of the point guy as the PP QB but the bumper has to be aware of everything and think very fast (react fast) for an effective PP.  You don't get to hold and control that puck you shoot or pass to the right spot almost instantly. You also have to handle the physicality of being in that spot. Quinn plays too soft imo. I don't think we have a guy for that spot at this time. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Yes, Norris is worth a shot. Maybe it helps. Definitely need someone who can win that draw more often than not.

Regarding the bumper, like my other comment, it's a veteran spot. We think of the point guy as the PP QB but the bumper has to be aware of everything and think very fast (react fast) for an effective PP.  You don't get to hold and control that puck you shoot or pass to the right spot almost instantly. You also have to handle the physicality of being in that spot. Quinn plays too soft imo. I don't think we have a guy for that spot at this time. 

Your last note is the important one.

If you don’t have the right guy, you have to find the best guy.

Cozens didn’t work. Tuch doesn’t. You might have to try a kid with some skills and hope he grows into the role.

Norris has the quick touch thing and the shot. I think we may see him there first, even though he’s not a distributor at all.

Another option: Norris has proven he can succeed in the Tage slot. Thoughts on moving him there, Tage to the bumper?

 

Edited 25 minutes ago by dudacek

[ponokasabre]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

My previous favorite topic, Cozens and how he hurt the Sabres so much. As far as helping the PP, Getting rid of Cozens is step #1.  

In the 20 or so games after he was traded, the Sabres were 13 for 52 on the PP without him (25%, which would have ranked about 6th or 7th in the entire league).  In the time he WAS with the team, they were about 16.9% with him (5th worse in the league).

Finding a guy who can score more than him, or at least someone who isn't a black hole out there (once the puck goes in to Cozens, it never comes back out.)

How much did he hurt the Sabres PP?

Well the eye test tells me he didn't have vision or passing ability to set up anyone (not all, but many of his PP assists were incidental, not intentional), and many of us think he doesn't see the ice well.

As for the stats?

-In his time with the Sabres, he is 2nd among forward in PP time (only Tage has more), so he has had tons of opportunity. Most of it on PP unit #1.

-In almost 760 minutes of PP ice time with the Sabres over 5 years, he had a total of 12 PP goals. He averages about 2.5 PP goals per year. There are about 180 other forwards in the league with more than 12 PP goals over the same time, many with LESS ice time than Cozens had on the PP.

-He averaged 0.95 goals per 60 on the PP for his career. Who on the team is better than that? Benson, Quinn, Greenway, Tuch, Thompson, Zucker...along with a bunch of guys no longer with the team (Reinhart, Okposo, VO, Skinner, Peterka, and Mitts to name the most prominent ones)

BTW, Josh Norris in a pretty big 200+ game sample size is at 2.8 goals per 60 on the PP, scoring at almost 3 times the rate of Cozens.

-107 guys over the time Cozens has been in the NHL have had over 750 minutes of ice time on the PP.  Where does Cozens rank in terms of goals among those 107 guys?  106th.  2nd last. The only guy who scored less PP goals than him with that much ice time was Ryan Strome, but he only had 1 less goal than Cozens but had 16 more assists. 

-Go back to last year after he got hurt in the fight vs Philly for one additional example:  In the In the 4 games BEFORE he got hurt Cozens was on the powerplay. The sabres scored ZERO PP goals in any of those 4 games.  In the 2 games Cozens missed, the Sabres scored PP goals in both of those games.  When he came back he went right back on PP#1 and they went another 4 games without scoring a PP goal.

Needless to say, since he has been in the NHL, Cozens is likely the worst forward in the entire league in PP production that got used on a regular basis.  Zucker had 11 PP goals in one season with the Sabres, 1 less than Cozens had his entire career here.

Thank you for this, this is extremely well researched! and I believe this 100 percent! As long as Norris stays healthy, the overall effect we will see with this team is gonna be massive. I'm hoping the same will be said for Peterka and Kesserling, harder to quantify as one is a winger/scorer and a defenseman but I do believe the same will be true to the overall team cohesiveness