NHL.com work-up on the Sabres

[GASabresIUFAN]

1. https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-nhl-edge-stats-for-2025-26-season-32-in-32

2. https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-inside-look-for-2025-26-season-32-in-32

3. https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-three-questions-for-2025-26-season-32-in-32

4. https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-fantasy-projections-for-2025-26-season-32-in-32

5. https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-top-prospects-for-2025-26-season-32-in-32

The most interesting stat in the Edge article (Article 1) is the Mid and long range goals scored by the Sabres last season.  The Sabres were among the league leaders in mid and long range goals last season.  Is that sustainable or subject to a reversal of fortune? I'd like to have seen some advanced metrics on our crap goaltending.

In article 3, they got 2 of the 3 questions right (but not in the right order).  McLeod building on last season is not even on the radar of a major issue other than a regression will make it even harder to replace JJP scoring.  The top issue facing the Sabres is can the "revamped" defense improve defensively.  The No 2 issue is UPL and goaltending and the 3rd issue is replacing JJP's scoring.

 

Edited 17 hours ago by GASabresIUFAN

[Pimlach]

Lots of data there to consider.  

Tage, Dahlin, Tuch and many question marks.  

I wish I could get excited about this team.   

[dudacek]

Thanks for posting.

Goaltending is far and away the number one question mark for me although I believe it is tied to reducing the excess of Grade A chances.

We’ve hashed the JJP numbers pretty thoroughly; not seeing ES scoring as an issue with this roster and the PP already sucked with him.

The McLeod thing is an interesting take. Most of us agree Norris and Kulich come with question marks. We’ve kinda accepted McLeod might slip but he’s still a good 3. The idea that he could take another step is not one that I’ve seen get any traction. But really, is a 60-point McLeod any harder to foresee than a  60-point Norris or Kulich?

Edited 16 hours ago by dudacek

[dudacek]

I’m going to throw an unlikely bone into the centre ice stew.

McLeod entered last year coming off a career-high 30 points in 81 games at 25 in his 3rd full NHL season. Nobody expected what he did.

Peyton Krebs is coming off a career-high 28 points in 81 games at 24 in his 3rd full NHL season.

😘

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’m going to throw an unlikely bone into the centre ice stew.

McLeod entered last year coming off a career-high 30 points in 81 games at 25 in his 3rd full NHL season. Nobody expected what he did.

Peyton Krebs is coming off a career-high 28 points in 81 games at 24 in his 3rd full NHL season.

😘

Would be great if Krebs did take a step up.

But, don't see him getting much, if any, PP time (not that THAT matters with this team).  And getting primarily 4C usage, will be tough to improve significantly over that.

(By that, meaning last year's #'s.)

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Would be great if Krebs did take a step up.

But, don't see him getting much, if any, PP time (not that THAT matters with this team).  And getting primarily 4C usage, will be tough to improve significantly over that.

(By that, meaning last year's #'s.)

There’s a lot of upward mobility potential on the forward ranks. Krebs is not near the top of that list and I would be very surprised if he took a step.

But I am probably in the minority here in that haven’t given up on the likelihood of a handful of the youngsters being better.

[oddoublee]

33 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’m going to throw an unlikely bone into the centre ice stew.

McLeod entered last year coming off a career-high 30 points in 81 games at 25 in his 3rd full NHL season. Nobody expected what he did.

Peyton Krebs is coming off a career-high 28 points in 81 games at 24 in his 3rd full NHL season.

😘

I like your style!

[GASabresIUFAN]

35 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’m going to throw an unlikely bone into the centre ice stew.

McLeod entered last year coming off a career-high 30 points in 81 games at 25 in his 3rd full NHL season. Nobody expected what he did.

Peyton Krebs is coming off a career-high 28 points in 81 games at 24 in his 3rd full NHL season.

😘

Krebs’ best opportunity could come if Kulich falters at center and gets moved to wing or sent down.

[PerreaultForever]

If you live in the world of stats and analytics, the Sabres are almost always exciting.

If you watch hockey, they are not. 

[Taro T]

34 minutes ago, dudacek said:

There’s a lot of upward mobility potential on the forward ranks. Krebs is not near the top of that list and I would be very surprised if he took a step.

But I am probably in the minority here in that haven’t given up on the likelihood of a handful of the youngsters being better.

Do expect the kids to be better.  Am likely one of the few that expects Quinn to actually bounce back this year.

But unless UPL is one of those kids to be a lot better, it likely will be for naught.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

If you live in the world of stats and analytics, the Sabres are almost always exciting.

If you watch hockey, they are not. 

Lol what? The Sabres have had terrible analytics for, idk the last decade? That's not very exciting. 

[7+6=13]

I think we were a tougher team last year than the previous year.  I expect to be even tougher this year (I'm not going to say those words, because I know they're nauseating).

I feel like it's been quite some time since goals have been a huge issue.  I believe we're 19th in goals over the last 5 years and 14th over the last 10. 

I believe we've been soft for a much longer time.  I anticipate a team with more heart and grit and I think we're undervaluing the effects and importance of it.  We've discussed being soft a lot but we're not talking a ton about that we're likely not now.

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, 7+6=13 said:

I think we were a tougher team last year than the previous year.  I expect to be even tougher this year (I'm not going to say those words, because I know they're nauseating).

I feel like it's been quite some time since goals have been a huge issue.  I believe we're 19th in goals over the last 5 years and 14th over the last 10. 

I believe we've been soft for a much longer time.  I anticipate a team with more heart and grit and I think we're undervaluing the effects and importance of it.  We've discussed being soft a lot but we're not talking a ton about that we're likely not now.

Soft is an overused word and one that rests on a spectrum.

In terms of that spectrum, which of these players do you consider harder?

• Cozens Norris
• Mittlestadt McLeod
• Peterka Doan
• Skinner Zucker
• Olofsson Kulich 
• Okposo Greenway
• Girgensons Malenstyn
• Jost Danforth
• Jokiharju Byram
• Lyubushkin Kesselring
• Bryson Timmons

As much as people complain Adams hasn’t made changes, this is not the same Sabres team it was.

Edited 11 hours ago by dudacek

[7+6=13]

30 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Soft is an overused word and one that rests on a spectrum.

In terms of that spectrum, which of these players do you consider harder?

• Cozens Norris
• Mittlestadt McLeod
• Peterka Doan
• Skinner Zucker
• Olofsson Kulich 
• Okposo Greenway
• Girgensons Malenstyn
• Jost Danforth
• Jokiharju Byram
• Lyubushkin Kesselring
• Bryson Timmons

Is much as people complain Adams hasn’t made changes, this is not the same Sabres team it was.

I don't think it's so much overused, it just has multiple applications and forms. 

I'm not sure I fully understand your couplings.  I think we've improved the overall toughness of the team player for player, yes.  It will be up to them to translate it into the other definitions.

There's plenty to complain about but not making changes can't be one of them.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, 7+6=13 said:

 

I'm not sure I fully understand your couplings.  I think we've improved the overall toughness of the team player for player, yes.  It will be up to them to translate it into the other definitions.

It seems like you did. Basically I'm just comparing the 2023 team with the guy who took his roster spot and/or role.

Incrementally, we got harder in most positions. it's not much on a player for player level, but across half a team its significant.

(incidentally, I neglected Benson. Asplund and or Hinostroza were the next two for the 23 team in terms of games played)

Edited 11 hours ago by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

As much as people complain Adams hasn’t made changes, this is not the same Sabres team it was.

He has made plenty of changes, just not good ones.  Most of the players acquired have been depth players with limited utility and the changes have not yet to create a winning roster.  The team has regressed the last two years. As I’ve said before, Adams has traded away the 5 most productive forwards drafted and developed by the Sabres since the tank (Eichel, Reinhart, Mitts, Cozens and JJP). He also let the best goaltender drafted by the Sabres walk.  Change for change sake is not a good thing.  Deck chairs on the Titanic.

Sample moves - the parade of bad D - Lyubuskin, Clifton, E Johnson, Pysyk, Butcher, Irwin and  Hagg.  Parade of bad goalies since Ullmark left; Comrie, UPL, Reimer, Anderson, Tokarski, Dell and Subban.    

Edited 9 hours ago by GASabresIUFAN

[PerreaultForever]

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Lol what? The Sabres have had terrible analytics for, idk the last decade? That's not very exciting. 

As a whole. But there's always little analytical tidbits people get excited about (eg. Benson was above high danger chances expected 5v5 or some stuff similar) and there's this expected and that expected and this zone time and all kinds of things some people obsess over. 

[SabreFinn]

A lot of the progress will be depending on how young men in their early twenties spend their summer. No need to worry. At all. We will be fine.

[JohnC]

4 hours ago, SabreFinn said:

A lot of the progress will be depending on how young men in their early twenties spend their summer. No need to worry. At all. We will be fine.

I’m not calm about our goalie situation, especially about UPL. I’m hoping he can revert to his play a couple of years ago and not to his erratic play of last year. You may be calm but I’m not. Because of our goaltending situation I’m queasy and in a state of agitation. 

[Jorcus]

15 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

1. https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-nhl-edge-stats-for-2025-26-season-32-in-32

2. https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-inside-look-for-2025-26-season-32-in-32

3. https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-three-questions-for-2025-26-season-32-in-32

4. https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-fantasy-projections-for-2025-26-season-32-in-32

5. https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-top-prospects-for-2025-26-season-32-in-32

The most interesting stat in the Edge article (Article 1) is the Mid and long range goals scored by the Sabres last season.  The Sabres were among the league leaders in mid and long range goals last season.  Is that sustainable or subject to a reversal of fortune? I'd like to have seen some advanced metrics on our crap goaltending.

In article 3, they got 2 of the 3 questions right (but not in the right order).  McLeod building on last season is not even on the radar of a major issue other than a regression will make it even harder to replace JJP scoring.  The top issue facing the Sabres is can the "revamped" defense improve defensively.  The No 2 issue is UPL and goaltending and the 3rd issue is replacing JJP's scoring.

 

I think the Mid and long range scoring is sustainable given the types of shooters we have on the team in general. We were above 90% in every category of shot speed and if anything we just added more with Kesselring. 

[sabremike]

17 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

1. https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-nhl-edge-stats-for-2025-26-season-32-in-32

2. https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-inside-look-for-2025-26-season-32-in-32

3. https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-three-questions-for-2025-26-season-32-in-32

4. https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-fantasy-projections-for-2025-26-season-32-in-32

5. https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/32-in-32/buffalo-sabres-top-prospects-for-2025-26-season-32-in-32

The most interesting stat in the Edge article (Article 1) is the Mid and long range goals scored by the Sabres last season.  The Sabres were among the league leaders in mid and long range goals last season.  Is that sustainable or subject to a reversal of fortune? I'd like to have seen some advanced metrics on our crap goaltending.

In article 3, they got 2 of the 3 questions right (but not in the right order).  McLeod building on last season is not even on the radar of a major issue other than a regression will make it even harder to replace JJP scoring.  The top issue facing the Sabres is can the "revamped" defense improve defensively.  The No 2 issue is UPL and goaltending and the 3rd issue is replacing JJP's scoring.

 

The fact that a team that relies almost entirely on long range shots for goals with a roster of perimeter players who absolutely refuse to go to the front of the net is among the league leaders in long range goals isn't surprising.