3C - What is best course going forward?

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, oddoublee said:

delusions of grandeur I guess. how is your sabres memorabilia collection coming along?

My signed RJ Pennant and Puck are really nice. 

[Pimlach]

19 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I'm not sure I follow.  Trading Reinhart and the rest of the "old core" was the plan Adams sold Pegula or that Pegula mandated (as we all know that Adams is a yes man).  Eichel, Reinhart, Ristolainen, Montour, Staal and Hall were all traded from 3/26/21 to 11/4/21.  For them we have net received Tuch, Krebs, Östlund, Levi, Kulich, Rosen, Wahlberg, Kisakov, Marjala, Sardarian, Gustav Karlsson, and Riley Stillman. 

Now we are in win now mode.  Acquiring and possibly extending a 3C like Bennett is what the GM is supposed to do at this stage of the plan.  He is supposed to back fill his roster holes with outside talent where there is no internal candidate.

Pegula mandated this, along with a below cap salary roster, and along with the firing of many of the scouts and the FO rank and file.  In the case of Reinhart, I believe they had a chance to extend him before the Covid rules - but that could have been JBot?  

Win now?  Ok.  I want to see that.  It was not really there last season. 

Ruff has to influence this "win now" mandate and put his stamp on the roster.  Again, I would love a tough player like Bennett.   Just beware that we could give up a a good player for what could be a one year rental.   

17 minutes ago, Weave said:

I think the updated timeline presented by KA cost us all those players. Some wanted no part of another reset, others didn’t fit the new timeline, and some were both.

Yes! 

[Doohickie]

46 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

I think the Covid restrictions cost us Reinhart, Montour and Ullmark.

Especially with Reinhart, I don't think it was Covid.  I think Kevyn had already decided to move on from Eichel and saw Reinhart as part of that core he wanted to move on from.  In fact, looking back, I think the one year deal he signed Reino to was the first concrete indication that Adams was going to shake up the roster.

I look back now at XGMTM and JBot and I really regret that they just couldn't build a cohesive roster with a decent culture.  Instead they brought in a bunch of misfits (as in pieces that didn't fit together) and leaned too heavily on Eichel to save the franchise.  What an epic failure that turned out to be.

[dudacek]

What would people think of UFA Adam Henrique on a short-term deal?

52 points, versatile, good on faceoffs...

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/h/henriad01.html

[LGR4GM]

In an ideal world, Adams does 3 things. He brings in a middle 6 forward like Cirelli to create competition and in case someone falls off or gets injured. He brings in 2 brand new bottom 6 guys with character that aren't under 25, I am talking about 28yr old grizzled veterans who have won in the playoffs a bit. Finally number 3, he moves on from Jokiharju and Bryson and backfills those spots with Ryan Johnson and a RHD that can play alongside Power, a veteran, such as Tanev. 

This leaves us with 22 players, $86,871,070 in caphits and $828,930 in capspace, so we could add a guy like Savoie if there is an injury (which there will be). 

 

[xzy89c1]

19 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Probably on Rosen.  Maybe on the rest of your conjecture.  

this whole board is conjecture

[LGR4GM]

Quick note, the value on Cirelli is hard to gauge. Most trades like this are a 1st round pick, a good prospect, and a decent or good roster player. I think the roster player part is lacking from Buffalo although I think a team would value Jokiharju especially since he is an RFA. I added both Kulich and Rosen because Kulich is a top prospect and I think Rosen does have value, this makes up for the lack of value with Joker. Bryson is there because I had to move him off the team and Tampa might be interested him as a cheap 8th defender option, he certainly is as good is anything else they have but he could be dropped from this trade. Jeannot is somewhat of a Tampa cap dump which keeps the value on Cirelli more manageable for Buffalo, or you can say Jeannot for Rosen and Bryson if that makes sense. 

[xzy89c1]

19 hours ago, Doohickie said:

My point was the Mitts trade was dumb.  We really didn't need another high-talent, pretty-boy Dman (regardless of handedness) at the expense of a solid 2/3 C.  But Adams decided to invest in Tage and Cozens and walk away from Mitts.  I don't understand that.  I just don't. 

The gap created by trading Casey away is greater than any contribution Byram will make, imo.

Mitts trade is one of few no doubt great moves by Adams. We were lucky Colorado was so desperate for a center. As of today we do not have a top center on Sabres. Thompson needs to go to wing. 

[Doohickie]

2 minutes ago, xzy89c1 said:

Mitts trade is one of few no doubt great moves by Adams. We were lucky Colorado was so desperate for a center. As of today we do not have a top center on Sabres. Thompson needs to go to wing. 

I love the internal inconsistency in your post:  "Thompson needs to go to wing" but "Mitts trade is one of the few no doubt great moves", like trading a center and moving another center to wing is going to improve anything. 

You're funny.

Or trolling.  Probably trolling.

[thewookie1]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Quick note, the value on Cirelli is hard to gauge. Most trades like this are a 1st round pick, a good prospect, and a decent or good roster player. I think the roster player part is lacking from Buffalo although I think a team would value Jokiharju especially since he is an RFA. I added both Kulich and Rosen because Kulich is a top prospect and I think Rosen does have value, this makes up for the lack of value with Joker. Bryson is there because I had to move him off the team and Tampa might be interested him as a cheap 8th defender option, he certainly is as good is anything else they have but he could be dropped from this trade. Jeannot is somewhat of a Tampa cap dump which keeps the value on Cirelli more manageable for Buffalo, or you can say Jeannot for Rosen and Bryson if that makes sense. 

Jeannot isn't worth anywhere near that much in value. He's worth about a 4th or 3rd at best. Girgensons has arguably been a better player the past two years. As such it become massive overpay for Cirelli; plus no team is going to retain 500k for 7 years. Cirelli isn't worth 11, Rosen, Kulich and Jokiharju(2nd rounder) + Bryson

1. Kulich is not available for Tampa, Savoie and him strike me as highly likely to make us endlessly regret trading them to Tampa based on their team style and such. Kulich puts up 40 within 3 years if we deal him there.

2. Your offer is actually more value than what we got for Eichel. You effectively offered 3 1sts, 1 2nd and 1 4th/3rd for a low offense 2/3C(High end defensive player) and a nigh-cap dump that hits 

 

[sabresparaavida]

5 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Jeannot isn't worth anywhere near that much in value. He's worth about a 4th or 3rd at best. Girgensons has arguably been a better player the past two years. As such it become massive overpay for Cirelli; plus no team is going to retain 500k for 7 years. Cirelli isn't worth 11, Rosen, Kulich and Jokiharju(2nd rounder) + Bryson

1. Kulich is not available for Tampa, Savoie and him strike me as highly likely to make us endlessly regret trading them to Tampa based on their team style and such. Kulich puts up 40 within 3 years if we deal him there.

2. Your offer is actually more value than what we got for Eichel. You effectively offered 3 1sts, 1 2nd and 1 4th/3rd for a low offense 2/3C(High end defensive player) and a nigh-cap dump that hits 

 

I doubt Tampa would trade Jeannot for a 3rd, they paid nearly an entire draft’s worth of picks to get him, it would surprise me if they took less than a second to trade him. 
I also don’t think this is more than the Eichel package, that package had 2 firsts (1st + Krebs) and Tuch who at that point was a good 2nd liner with one of the better contracts in the league, long term and less than 5 million a year, with his contract he more than made up the rest of the package here. I do think this is too much for Cirelli though, but also I don’t think we have the pieces Tampa would want. A three way trade is really the only way I could see a Cirelli trade happening.

[thewookie1]

4 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

I doubt Tampa would trade Jeannot for a 3rd, they paid nearly an entire draft’s worth of picks to get him, it would surprise me if they took less than a second to trade him. 
I also don’t think this is more than the Eichel package, that package had 2 firsts (1st + Krebs) and Tuch who at that point was a good 2nd liner with one of the better contracts in the league, long term and less than 5 million a year, with his contract he more than made up the rest of the package here. I do think this is too much for Cirelli though, but also I don’t think we have the pieces Tampa would want. A three way trade is really the only way I could see a Cirelli trade happening.

Tampa has to move Jeannot or lose Stamkos; they ***** up the trade with NSH. No reason we should feel any need to aid them in making up for their idiocy.

 

[Carmel Corn]

19 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Jeannot isn't worth anywhere near that much in value. He's worth about a 4th or 3rd at best. Girgensons has arguably been a better player the past two years. As such it become massive overpay for Cirelli; plus no team is going to retain 500k for 7 years. Cirelli isn't worth 11, Rosen, Kulich and Jokiharju(2nd rounder) + Bryson

1. Kulich is not available for Tampa, Savoie and him strike me as highly likely to make us endlessly regret trading them to Tampa based on their team style and such. Kulich puts up 40 within 3 years if we deal him there.

2. Your offer is actually more value than what we got for Eichel. You effectively offered 3 1sts, 1 2nd and 1 4th/3rd for a low offense 2/3C(High end defensive player) and a nigh-cap dump that hits 

 

IDK - Savoie, Rosen and Kulich are not guaranteed to crack our roster this year and may never be top 6 players.  I don’t think their games translate well for playoff hockey either.  Joker can be replaced for a different type of defender, which the Sabres need.  I’d love to have Cirelli and Jeannot on the Sabres roster.  Girgs is a good guy, but it is best for him and the Sabres to part ways.

[Flashsabre]

I think TB bringing in McDonaugh nixes any Cirelli deal.

They are trying to win now and Cirelli is their 2nd line centre.

They will try to move out the Jeannots and Shearys but massage the cap to keep Cirelli and bring Stamkos back.

They need to sign a 6th and 7th dman and bottom line players unless they just promote from the AHL.

The only way I see them moving Cirelli is if they get a cheap replacement that keeps them competitive.

[LGR4GM]

41 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Jeannot isn't worth anywhere near that much in value. He's worth about a 4th or 3rd at best. Girgensons has arguably been a better player the past two years. As such it become massive overpay for Cirelli; plus no team is going to retain 500k for 7 years. Cirelli isn't worth 11, Rosen, Kulich and Jokiharju(2nd rounder) + Bryson

1. Kulich is not available for Tampa, Savoie and him strike me as highly likely to make us endlessly regret trading them to Tampa based on their team style and such. Kulich puts up 40 within 3 years if we deal him there.

2. Your offer is actually more value than what we got for Eichel. You effectively offered 3 1sts, 1 2nd and 1 4th/3rd for a low offense 2/3C(High end defensive player) and a nigh-cap dump that hits 

 

I'll worry about Kulich scoring 40 when he does it in the AHL. 

Outside of Kulich, would you even miss any of the rest of that? I wouldn't and winning is the goal, not trade values.

Edited May 29, 2024 by LGR4GM

[thewookie1]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'll worry about Kulich scoring 40 when he does it in the AHL. 

Outside of Kulich, would you even miss any of the rest of that? I wouldn't and winning is the goal, not trade values.

Aside Kulich, not much but I would feel "had"

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Aside Kulich, not much but I would feel "had"

as far as the 500k retention, you dont have to do that, you can still make a trade without it.

[Broken Ankles]

18 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Tampa has to move Jeannot or lose Stamkos; they ***** up the trade with NSH. No reason we should feel any need to aid them in making up for their idiocy.

 

Jeannot is not the key move to free cap for Stamkos.  They have ~ $5m is projected cap space.  Jeannot is $2.6m.  Stamkos will surely sign for more $7.6M.  Even with a hometown discount.  Unless Tampa offered crazy term to artificially lower the AAV.  I think the signing of McDonough signals that they are moving on from Stamkos.  Unless some unforeseen move (Hedman) frees up a large amount of cap.  As to your trade value for Jeannot, you are way off.  While it’s no longer what they paid, it certainly hasn’t plummeted to a third.  Somewhere in between.  Maybe a late first, prospect  and roster player on a low AAV.  Or a mid first and a player.  Every time I review the comments from Cap friendly on your trade offers they are littered with “decline”.  Think about that for a second.  @LGR4GM comes in with a proposal and you dismiss it.  He’s offering a realistic view of what it will take to enhance the roster.  Which I happen to think is spot on.  If they can execute without moving JJP, Quinn or Savoie, have at it! 

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Jeannot is not the key move to free cap for Stamkos.  They have ~ $5m is projected cap space.  Jeannot is $2.6m.  Stamkos will surely sign for more $7.6M.  Even with a hometown discount.  Unless Tampa offered crazy term to artificially lower the AAV.  I think the signing of McDonough signals that they are moving on from Stamkos.  Unless some unforeseen move (Hedman) frees up a large amount of cap.  As to your trade value for Jeannot, you are way off.  While it’s no longer what they paid, it certainly hasn’t plummeted to a third.  Somewhere in between.  Maybe a late first, prospect  and roster player on a low AAV.  Or a mid first and a player.  Every time I review the comments from Cap friendly on your trade offers they are littered with “decline”.  Think about that for a second.  @LGR4GM comes in with a proposal and you dismiss it.  He’s offering a realistic view of what it will take to enhance the roster.  Which I happen to think is spot on.  If they can execute without moving JJP, Quinn or Savoie, have at it! 

I overpaid in my offer to make sure it got done and because there was nothing outside of Kulich we couldn't afford to part with. Sure, that proposal should probably be short Rosen but I ask myself where I put Rosen in the next 3 years and my answer is always 3rd line or lower, I can always trade for a player like that or sign one in UFA if allllll the other guys we have don't work out. Bryson might be nice to keep but in this scenario we can't afford him and he is being replaced by Johnson. Kulich, 11, and Joker is a solid trade for 7 years of Cirelli. Is it an overpay? Yes, in reality you probably include Kulich or 11 but not both and Rosen makes up the other part. 

Cirelli +Jeanott for Kulich, Joker, Rosen, Bryson and our 2nd round pick is probably a better trade and more likely but in my scenario, I wanted to make sure it was done and I didn't get the response of "LMAO Tampa would say no and hang up the phone!" which we haven't. 

The important part IMPO is not the trade details in their minutia but in the roster we then have. 

JJP - Tage - Tuch

Skinner/Benson - Cozens - Quinn

Skinner - Benson - Cirelli - Jeanot/Savoie/Greenway

Greenway - Krebs - Smith

Byram - Dahlin 

Power - Tanev

Samuelsson - Clifton

Johnson - Chatfield

how we get here is of little importance, getting here though is a good idea. Gives us options on all lines and depth with veteran talent. Cirelli and Smith and Tanev have tons of playoff experience. 

Edited May 29, 2024 by LGR4GM

[oddoublee]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

My signed RJ Pennant and Puck are really nice. 

i bet they go great next to all your sabres gear. nice!

[thewookie1]

11 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Jeannot is not the key move to free cap for Stamkos.  They have ~ $5m is projected cap space.  Jeannot is $2.6m.  Stamkos will surely sign for more $7.6M.  Even with a hometown discount.  Unless Tampa offered crazy term to artificially lower the AAV.  I think the signing of McDonough signals that they are moving on from Stamkos.  Unless some unforeseen move (Hedman) frees up a large amount of cap.  As to your trade value for Jeannot, you are way off.  While it’s no longer what they paid, it certainly hasn’t plummeted to a third.  Somewhere in between.  Maybe a late first, prospect  and roster player on a low AAV.  Or a mid first and a player.  Every time I review the comments from Cap friendly on your trade offers they are littered with “decline”.  Think about that for a second.  @LGR4GM comes in with a proposal and you dismiss it.  He’s offering a realistic view of what it will take to enhance the roster.  Which I happen to think is spot on.  If they can execute without moving JJP, Quinn or Savoie, have at it! 

Jeannot is not worth anywhere near that, he has had 8 goals and 10 assists in 75 games with Tampa.

A -16 +/- which is kind of weird since he had a positive Relative Corsi and Fenwick this past season.

Comparatively he's a less offensive and slightly better defensive Girgensons that hits a lot. No where near a 1st rounder in value.

 

As for Tampa, every indication by Tampa and Stamkos has been he is returning next year; he's still skating with Kucherov and the Tampa GM has said they are working on it. To accomplish that even with Stamkos taking a pay cut into the 5 to 6mil range; they'd need to jettison Jeannot and Sheary and replace both with extremely cheap players. For instance more 800k guys.

 

 

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I overpaid in my offer to make sure it got done and because there was nothing outside of Kulich we couldn't afford to part with. Sure, that proposal should probably be short Rosen but I ask myself where I put Rosen in the next 3 years and my answer is always 3rd line or lower, I can always trade for a player like that or sign one in UFA if allllll the other guys we have don't work out. Bryson might be nice to keep but in this scenario we can't afford him and he is being replaced by Johnson. Kulich, 11, and Joker is a solid trade for 7 years of Cirelli. Is it an overpay? Yes, in reality you probably include Kulich or 11 but not both and Rosen makes up the other part. 

Cirelli +Jeanott for Kulich, Joker, Rosen, Bryson and our 2nd round pick is probably a better trade and more likely but in my scenario, I wanted to make sure it was done and I didn't get the response of "LMAO Tampa would say no and hang up the phone!" which we haven't. 

The latter trade is far more legitimate in value however I don't see Tampa having any interest in Jokiharju or Bryson. (Effectively Jokiharju would end up a 4mil AAV 5th/6th Dman while Bryson would likely just walk since I can't see Tampa paying his Qualifier.

Meanwhile, Kulich would be thrust into Top 6 minutes due to Tampa's roster construction barring 2 more forwards being brought in.

Stamkos - Point - Kucherov

Hagel - Paul - *Kulich*

Sheary - Eyssimont - Glendening

XXX-XXX-Chaffee

Hedman - Sergachev

McDonagh - Cernak

Perbix - Raddysh

 

 

[Mr Peabody]

Enjoying this discussion.  I believe the right trade to fix this team will be considered an overpay - that’s fine with me.  As Ben Cartwright once said you sacrifice a bishop to capture a queen.  The queen in my mind is a balanced team and organizational personnel. 

[SabreFinn]

Tampa needs to make trades and they will, but definitely not with a team in same division. As with Tkachuk to Sabres - it's not going to happen. Sorry.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, thewookie1 said:

The latter trade is far more legitimate in value however I don't see Tampa having any interest in Jokiharju or Bryson. (Effectively Jokiharju would end up a 4mil AAV 5th/6th Dman while Bryson would likely just walk since I can't see Tampa paying his Qualifier.

Meanwhile, Kulich would be thrust into Top 6 minutes due to Tampa's roster construction barring 2 more forwards being brought in.

Stamkos - Point - Kucherov

Hagel - Paul - *Kulich*

Sheary - Eyssimont - Glendening

XXX-XXX-Chaffee

Hedman - Sergachev

McDonagh - Cernak

Perbix - Raddysh

Again, I added to the trade so Tampa would have interest. You can't have it both ways. You can't be like "that's to much!" but then be like "Tampa wouldn't have interest in this other more legitimate trade." 

Also, you don't have to sign those players to 4mil dollar offers. Jokiharju's QO is not 4million so idk where that comes from and Bryson is easily worth 1.5mil as a 7th defender. 

[thewookie1]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Again, I added to the trade so Tampa would have interest. You can't have it both ways. You can't be like "that's to much!" but then be like "Tampa wouldn't have interest in this other more legitimate trade." 

Also, you don't have to sign those players to 4mil dollar offers. Jokiharju's QO is not 4million so idk where that comes from and Bryson is easily worth 1.5mil as a 7th defender. 

My guess is Jokiharju will be looking for about 4mil AAV

Bryson would be a UFA is his qualifier isn't made and he'd be free to come back to Buffalo or go anywhere he wants.

Essentially I feel we give up too much while simultaneously Tampa gains two unneeded assets. For instance, let's say Jokiharju equals a 2nd but only a 3rd or 4th to Tampa. In that case we are better off getting the 2nd from elsewhere.