Doohickie Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 On 5/11/2024 at 12:03 PM, French Collection said: Muel can be our Mark Stone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 2 hours ago, Archie Lee said: These are all good points. Up until the end of this last season, I had never contemplated a Skinner buyout seriously. The length and cost of any buyout always seemed a bit absurd, at least until you got to year 8. Looking at it closely for the first time, I’m actually kind of convinced that it was structured to make this year the inflection point. This is the year where the debate needs to occur and management needs to weigh the value of $7.5 million in extra cap space this off-season vs the drag of an extra year’s cap hit of $2.5 million in 2029-30. There are a few points that tip me towards a buyout this June: - I think we may have reached the point where Skinner, all things considered, does not meet the value of even half his AAV. He was never worth $9 million but at his best he was maybe worth $7 million and you could swallow hard and accept that he got to UFA status and got himself paid. I think we are now at a point where what you can get with the cap space saved with a buyout is more than what you can get from Skinner at his AAV. - The cost of a buyout now vs next year is really only one year at approx $2.5 million. The approximate $500k extra cap hit the 4 years after this year is not immaterial, but it is also not a huge issue and it won’t ultimately be the difference between keeping Quinn and Peterka and losing them (if things go well, keeping both will be tough regardless). Critically to this argument is that the one year where it really hurts (the extra 6th year) is 2029-2030. I don’t want to get in a habit of throwing away future cap space, but a dead cap hit of $2.5 million 6 years from now should not be a huge concern relative to the importance of making the playoffs in 2024-2025. - Which leads to the final point. We get $7.5 million in space this off-season, one of the most critical in franchise history, with a buyout now. The question should be: are we a better hockey team this year with Jeff Skinner at $9 million or are we better with whatever players we can add using the $7.5 we save with a buyout? Im sorry but this is short sighted and doesn't view the cap ramifications over time. In 2026-2027 the cap hit for Jeff is 6.4 million and then it is 2.44million for 3 years after that if you buy him out this offseason. You do get a savings this offseason, but who cares? This is the least important offseason to have that cap savings as the Sabres A. already have the space to bring in a higher end player (which they wont) and B. don't have to worry about Quinn and JJP next contract, so having that space is superfluous. Meanwhile if you simply wait until next offseason, you save 2.4million in 2029/30. You save 445k every single other year and still save 5million on the cap for year 1 of the new Quinn/JJP deal. It makes far more logical sense to wait one year, especially when as I noted it gives you depth. Jeff Skinner isn't a bad player, he just isn't worth 9million. Buy him out next year and spend this year trying to trade him. You can always use him on lines 1-3 and he is almost guaranteed to be better under Ruff and have a bounce back year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 On 5/12/2024 at 8:32 AM, seer775 said: If KA is serious about winning, he will find a way out of Jeff Skinner. This isn't a video game. He has three options to move Skinner off the team: Trade him, but who will take him and will he waive his no trade clause? The Sabres would need to retain a significant portion of his salary or accept cap dump of crappy players from another team which won't help the Sabres situation. Buy him out, which won't help the cap situation. Waive him a la Matt Moulson and let him play out his contract in the AHL, but again, that won't help the cap situation (as we saw with Matty Mo). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 14 minutes ago, Doohickie said: This isn't a video game. He has three options to move Skinner off the team: Trade him, but who will take him and will he waive his no trade clause? The Sabres would need to retain a significant portion of his salary or accept cap dump of crappy players from another team which won't help the Sabres situation. Buy him out, which won't help the cap situation. Waive him a la Matt Moulson and let him play out his contract in the AHL, but again, that won't help the cap situation (as we saw with Matty Mo). IF they trade him and retain say 1/2 of the salary, they've reduced the length of time that they're losing cap space from 6 years via a buyout down to just 3 years. So, there would be a value in that. Pretty sure he doesn't just have a NTC but actually a NMC, meaning he is NOT seeing the AHL unless he wants to be there. It is not happening. Leaving just 1 & 2 as options to get him off the roster. Neither seems worth it vs just keeping him around for this season. Were his contract less, nobody would care if he were the loose cannon on the 3rd or 4th line. His contract isn't keeping Adams from making any move he'd ACTUALLY make this year, so personally can't see a reason to buy him out. And he holds the cards regarding a trade. Get used to watching him play as a Sabre again. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archie Lee Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 35 minutes ago, Doohickie said: This isn't a video game. He has three options to move Skinner off the team: Trade him, but who will take him and will he waive his no trade clause? The Sabres would need to retain a significant portion of his salary or accept cap dump of crappy players from another team which won't help the Sabres situation. Buy him out, which won't help the cap situation. Waive him a la Matt Moulson and let him play out his contract in the AHL, but again, that won't help the cap situation (as we saw with Matty Mo). #3 isn’t an option as he has a full NMC. There is absolute cap benefit to a buyout. $7.5 this year, $4.5 next year and $2.5 the year after that. The downside to the cap is the $2.5 hit in years 4-6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 21 minutes ago, Taro T said: IF they trade him and retain say 1/2 of the salary, they've reduced the length of time that they're losing cap space from 6 years via a buyout down to just 3 years. So, there would be a value in that. Yes, that's true, but you capitalized IF for a reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 1 minute ago, Doohickie said: Yes, that's true, but you capitalized IF for a reason. Honestly, not 100% why the F in the IF was capitalized. Probably was merely stressing, without writing a novella (but then there is THIS post, so much for the lack of writing a novella 😉 ) that it's looking at a particular version of trading him (1/2 salary retained; depending upon what comes back for him, could see it only being 1/3 retained should Adams find a team that would take him AND Skinner would be willing to play for). Or, it might've just been the shift key sticking on a rainy humid day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 (edited) Welp, it is clear Adams isn't bringing substantial good veterans to fix the bottom six. He's gonna bring up 2-3 Amerks, probably re-sign Zemgus, and run a bottom 6 of... Rosen - Krebs - Savoie Zemgus - New Guy - Murray Can totally see this without even blinking. Greenway and Skinner will be rotating in depending on injury as Rosen and Savoie sit at times. JJP - Tage - Tuch Benson - Cozens - Quinn Greenway - Krebs - Skinner Zemgus - New Guy - rotating cast of Rosen, Savoie, Murray (who will be moved up the lineup depending on who's going) Edited May 13 by LGR4GM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewookie1 Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 43 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: Welp, it is clear Adams isn't bringing substantial good veterans to fix the bottom six. He's gonna bring up 2-3 Amerks, probably re-sign Zemgus, and run a bottom 6 of... Rosen - Krebs - Savoie Zemgus - New Guy - Murray Can totally see this without even blinking. Greenway and Skinner will be rotating in depending on injury as Rosen and Savoie sit at times. JJP - Tage - Tuch Benson - Cozens - Quinn Greenway - Krebs - Skinner Zemgus - New Guy - rotating cast of Rosen, Savoie, Murray (who will be moved up the lineup depending on who's going) I can't see them trying that; no one would buy tickets and fans would become downright toxic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashsabre Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 1 hour ago, LGR4GM said: Welp, it is clear Adams isn't bringing substantial good veterans to fix the bottom six. He's gonna bring up 2-3 Amerks, probably re-sign Zemgus, and run a bottom 6 of... Rosen - Krebs - Savoie Zemgus - New Guy - Murray Can totally see this without even blinking. Greenway and Skinner will be rotating in depending on injury as Rosen and Savoie sit at times. JJP - Tage - Tuch Benson - Cozens - Quinn Greenway - Krebs - Skinner Zemgus - New Guy - rotating cast of Rosen, Savoie, Murray (who will be moved up the lineup depending on who's going) This is you just making stuff up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 8 minutes ago, Flashsabre said: This is you just making stuff up. This is him responding to patterns he wants to see the Sabres break through the lens of evidence today that they won’t. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 11 minutes ago, Flashsabre said: This is you just making stuff up. Well, it is a fan forum... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 I’m surprised that so many take into account the cap when thinking about future personnel decisions. Nothing like putting the cart before the horse. Maybe if the Sabres were a perennial deep playoff team and we had to figure out who to keep and who to let go, but, c’mon, they still suck. I just don’t think it plays even a little bit into their decision making yet. Can we, at least, wait until they are good to talk about them like they actually are good? It’s not like they’re going to run up against the cap any time soon. I think actual salary matters more right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 4 minutes ago, dudacek said: This is him responding to patterns he wants to see the Sabres break through the lens of evidence today that they won’t. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewookie1 Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 3 minutes ago, SwampD said: I’m surprised that so many take into account the cap when thinking about future personnel decisions. Nothing like putting the cart before the horse. Maybe if the Sabres were a perennial deep playoff team and we had to figure out who to keep and who to let go, but, c’mon, they still suck. I just don’t think it plays even a little bit into their decision making yet. Can we, at least, wait until they are good to talk about them like they actually are good? It’s not like they’re going to run up against the cap any time soon. I think actual salary matters more right now. They will very likely run into the cap this year if not at latest next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 32 minutes ago, thewookie1 said: They will very likely run into the cap this year if not at latest next season. Cap space this year is only an issue if they add some expensive players this summer. Its only an issue next year if Peterka and Quinn break out. And if that happens, they do what good teams do, they move a contract out and backfill with one of the many prospects they have accumulated. That’s kinda the whole purpose of accumulating prospects and locking up your core long-term. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 28 minutes ago, dudacek said: Its only an issue next year if Peterka and Quinn break out. I think those horses are already out of the barn, more or less. If they regress we've got bigger issues than the salary cap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashsabre Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 (edited) The offseason hasn’t officially started for everyone yet. Let’s atleast get there before we start the “it’s obvious he’s not bringing in any good talent” narratives. Edited May 13 by Flashsabre Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveoath Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 who’s the UFAs you would target? Not saying all of these but…. Hronek, Stephenson, Sean walker, Nick Cousins (I know), Jake DeBrusk, Bertuzzi?!?!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashsabre Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 Ummmmmmmmmmmmm😳 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveoath Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 6 minutes ago, Flashsabre said: Ummmmmmmmmmmmm😳 Saw this on Instagram. I thought there were some awful proposals on here. But man, leaf fans are delusional. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 I kinda think they are going to bring in a couple of real vet forwards with the goal that they will flex between the 2nd and 3rd lines. We shouldn't kid ourselves though -- no one good enough to fill that role well will come here on a 1- or 2-year deal. It's going to be at least 3 years, and the AAV will seem too high given the player's production. That's how it goes when NHL Siberia is shopping in the UFA market. I'm not expecting a good vet defenseman -- I think they are going to go with the guys they have, although a trade of Joki or Muel wouldn't shock me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 25 minutes ago, nfreeman said: I kinda think they are going to bring in a couple of real vet forwards with the goal that they will flex between the 2nd and 3rd lines. We shouldn't kid ourselves though -- no one good enough to fill that role well will come here on a 1- or 2-year deal. It's going to be at least 3 years, and the AAV will seem too high given the player's production. That's how it goes when NHL Siberia is shopping in the UFA market. I'm not expecting a good vet defenseman -- I think they are going to go with the guys they have, although a trade of Joki or Muel wouldn't shock me. I'd be surprised if they sign a free agent better or more expensive than Clifton. And I'm actually OK with that because those deals generally aren't the answer. I think better answers can be found in trade 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewookie1 Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 36 minutes ago, nfreeman said: I kinda think they are going to bring in a couple of real vet forwards with the goal that they will flex between the 2nd and 3rd lines. We shouldn't kid ourselves though -- no one good enough to fill that role well will come here on a 1- or 2-year deal. It's going to be at least 3 years, and the AAV will seem too high given the player's production. That's how it goes when NHL Siberia is shopping in the UFA market. I'm not expecting a good vet defenseman -- I think they are going to go with the guys they have, although a trade of Joki or Muel wouldn't shock me. A few options via trade: 3Cs Yanni Gourde 1x5.1 John Tavares(50-75%) 1x 5.5/2.75mil Phil Danault 3x5.5mil 4Cs Radek Fafsa 1x3.25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seer775 Posted May 13 Report Share Posted May 13 (edited) 7 hours ago, Doohickie said: This isn't a video game. He has three options to move Skinner off the team: Trade him, but who will take him and will he waive his no trade clause? The Sabres would need to retain a significant portion of his salary or accept cap dump of crappy players from another team which won't help the Sabres situation. Buy him out, which won't help the cap situation. Waive him a la Matt Moulson and let him play out his contract in the AHL, but again, that won't help the cap situation (as we saw with Matty Mo). 4. Play him 60 mins a night until he waives his NMC or hits the LTIR. Then if he needs surgery, be like "nah". Edited May 13 by seer775 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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