Has the Adams rebuild failed completely?

[bunomatic]

We have no choice but to give him more time. When his time is up we’ll know it. Hopefully he at least gets them a spot in the playoffs. Its anyones guess how they’d do but watching the current playoffs the roster as its currently constructed wouldn’t fare to well. They are not built like the typical nhl model. Maybe KA can break the mold and have success. I have my doubts.

[DarthEbriate]

15 minutes ago, bunomatic said:

We have no choice but to give him more time. When his time is up we’ll know it. Hopefully he at least gets them a spot in the playoffs. Its anyones guess how they’d do but watching the current playoffs the roster as its currently constructed wouldn’t fare to well. They are not built like the typical nhl model. Maybe KA can break the mold and have success. I have my doubts.

He'll have that playoff shield down. We've gotta give him more time!

[SwampD]

4 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Sometimes I think there's only one fan left who is still buying what Adams is selling.

We are still being sold the same “we shouldn’t mortgage our future for short term success” bullsh!t we were sold over 13 years ago. There is no future!

I chose option 2 in the poll, with the caveat that a major change could be one or several of the current future core (Did I really just type that,… ***** this team) significantly changes who they are as hockey player(s), because as of right now, i don’t think they have what it takes to compete deep into the playoffs, if they ever manage to even get there.

And I don’t want to ever hear from a GM “once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen.” No it can’t. That’s for fans to hope, not a GM’s strategy. Good lord.

Edited May 12 by SwampD

[GoPuckYourself]

Adams shouldn't even have this season, no respectable owner would have given Adams going on 5 seasons with not 1 single playoff series under his belt. This owner rewards mediocrity like no other unfortunately.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

He really is very much a "trust the process" man.

If I'm honest with myself, I think I am too, and that's why probably why I'm willing to give him every opportunity to play this out.

I think by and large his strategy is the correct one given this market and the crater that has been built in it.

But just because the strategy is correct, that doesn't mean the execution is correct.

That's where I tend to see things differently than @PerreaultForever a lot. I think Adams actually is trying to do a lot of the things he complains about in terms of culture and building from within.

It's the execution where the two of them differ: Adams went speed and skill first over grit and defence, and force-feeding youth responsibility early rather than shielding them behind a collection of Pat Maroons and Brian Giontas.

Given where we started in the summer of '21, I personally think we'd be in about the same place right now, had we followed the Maroon/Gionta path: a playoff bubble team, crossing our fingers that the youth was about to break out. But we will never know.

What we will find out over the next 12 months is whether Adams did indeed blow it, and a Lindy-led core of Thompson/Tuch/Cozens/Quinn/Peterka/Bryum/Dahlin/Power/UP/Levi - developed the way he has chosen to develop it - has the right stuff.

Because that is what Adams has built, entirely by design, and that is where he will sink or swim.

I don't believe that the supposed core players that you listed are the biggest question marks entering next season. The bigger issue is whether the GM will be able to add the right support players to a roster that already has most of the core players on the roster. Most of the listed players should have even more upside. The critical issue most analysts point to whenever the Sabres are discussed relate to the third and fourth line players that are needed to better balance out the roster, meaning players who play a tougher and grittier style of game. 

You bring up an intriguing issue associated with the coaching change. How much of a difference will Lindy make working with this roster compared to a Granato coached team? I think the coaching change with Lindy will show more structure and player accountability (playing time based on performance) should be more evident. 

 

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Sometimes I think there's only one fan left who is still buying what Adams is selling.

I wonder about this too, and yet the 83 %....

 

Edited May 12 by dudacek

[dudacek]

46 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I don't believe that the supposed core players that you listed are the biggest question marks entering next season. The bigger issue is whether the GM will be able to add the right support players to a roster that already has most of the core players on the roster. Most of the listed players should have even more upside. The critical issue most analysts point to whenever the Sabres are discussed relate to the third and fourth line players that are needed to better balance out the roster, meaning players who play a tougher and grittier style of game. 

You bring up an intriguing issue associated with the coaching change. How much of a difference will Lindy make working with this roster compared to a Granato coached team? I think the coaching change with Lindy will show more structure and player accountability (playing time based on performance) should be more evident. 

 

I realize I seem to be in the minority around here on this, but adding the best 3rd and 4th liners in the world won't mean ***** if Cozens, Skinner, Thompson and Tuch combine for less than 100 goals again as our core 4 forwards.

The total offensive collapse of the core, not the goaltending, nor the defence, nor the contributions of Krebs, Girgensons, Okposo etc. is the biggest reason reason this team didn't make the playoffs.

Edited May 12 by dudacek

[SABRES 0311]

I voted no. I do not see Tuch and UPL here when this team goes deep.

[JohnC]

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I realize I seem to be in the minority around here on this, but adding the best 3rd and 4th liners in the world won't mean ***** if Cozens, Skinner, Thompson and Tuch combine for less than 100 goals again as our core 4 forwards.

The total offensive collapse of the core, not the goaltending, nor the defence, nor the contributions of Krebs, Girgensons, Okposo etc. is the biggest reason reason this team didn't make the playoffs.

I and most people agree with you that our core underperformed last year. Your position is not a minority position.  But I don't see the core that you previously listed changing very much. I can't say for sure how the top two lines are going to be constituted but it's likely that the lines will be made up from your list. 

My sense is that KA is not going to stray from the core that he has assembled. He seems to be saying in a variety of forums that his focus of attention is going to be on upgrading the lower lines. For the most part, I agree with that approach. Will the GM be more aggressive this offseason to bring in a top two-line player? I'm not sure that he will. 

 

Edited May 12 by JohnC

[dudacek]

The Sabres have rebuilt from the bottom 4 times before:

• Punch: .404, .327, 564, .487, .706 stayed good but never got over the hump
• Gerry Meehan: .400, .531, .519, .613, .506 faded and reset under Muckler
• Tim Murray: .317, .329, .494, .476, failed and reset under Botterill
• Jason Botterill: .378, .463, .493, Botterill fired for insubordination
• Kevyn Adams: .330, .457, .555, .512

They've also tried to rebuild with youth twice without fully bottoming out, when Scotty started collecting 1st rounders, and when Darcy traded Hasek

• Scotty: .581, .556, .684, .563, .500 Bowman fired the next season as his rebuild failed
• Darcy: .500, .439, .518, LO, .671 team stayed mostly good before free agency chewed it away

Year 4 results haven't proved to be a great indicator of success or failure of any particular build. In fact, it looks like it's not unusual to fall back in the 4th year of this type of build. The pattern Adams seems to be most closely following is that of Punch. We can only hope.

Edited May 12 by dudacek

[tom webster]

1 hour ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Adams shouldn't even have this season, no respectable owner would have given Adams going on 5 seasons with not 1 single playoff series under his belt. This owner rewards mediocrity like no other unfortunately.

That’s actually not been true till Adams. Say what you want about the people he has hired but he hasn’t just done nothing as the team has lost and underperformed.

 

[Thorny]

43 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I realize I seem to be in the minority around here on this, but adding the best 3rd and 4th liners in the world won't mean ***** if Cozens, Skinner, Thompson and Tuch combine for less than 100 goals again as our core 4 forwards.

The total offensive collapse of the core, not the goaltending, nor the defence, nor the contributions of Krebs, Girgensons, Okposo etc. is the biggest reason reason this team didn't make the playoffs.

No, the biggest reason is that there were a lot of reasons 

I’d wager there were several things we could have weathered but there was a combination of too many things. The team was kinda bad this year 

People always want to dial it down to the “biggest” or “only” issue but that’s the very thinking that gets you into trouble 

ESPECIALLY in a free flowing game like ice hockey. Everything feeds everything

Edited May 12 by Thorny

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

No, the biggest reason is that there were a lot of reasons 

I’d wager there were several things we could have weathered but there was a combination of too many things. The team was kinda bad this year 

 

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

People always want to dial it down to the “biggest” or “only” issue but that’s the very thinking that gets you into trouble 

Generally agree with this. All pieces are important, and a team is only as good as all its pieces combined.

But the core is more important than the other pieces, because they are the ones that get the most ice time in the toughest situations against the best players. And, comparatively speaking, our core was the part of the team that contributed the least compared to expectations

Basically, what I am responding to is the assumption that the core will be fine if they get better pieces around them. That's not necessarily true, and it certainly wasn't last season.

Edited May 12 by dudacek

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

Generally agree with this. All pieces are important, and a team is only as good as all its pieces combined.

But the core is more important than the other pieces, because they are the ones that get the most ice time in the toughest situations against the best players. And, comparatively speaking, our core was the part of the team that contributed the least compared to expectations

Basically, what I am responding to is the assumption that the core will be fine if they get better pieces around them. That's not necessarily true, and it certainly wasn't last season.

We didn’t really add anyone to them last season though did we?

But ya we’ll need better from the core, I agree, but how much we need is somewhat within our manual control by way of a) outside additions and B) the amount of free upgrade we get from the core because the rising tide of a deeper roster tends to float all boats 

 

Ie a portion of the core improvement will actually be depth improvement masquerading as core improvement 

then there’s the raw output of the additions.

and, yes, raw improvement from core which we also need 

[Thorny]

There’s improvement from core, improvement from outside additions, and then the amount those two things *when combined* improve BOTH 

Ie you don’t get all the benefit of your core until you have depth, and you don’t get the benefit of depth until your core is firing 

you gotta keep it flowing.

you pay the quarter, and the machine goes arroooooooubd

doing the bull dance 

feelin the flow

working it

 

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I wonder about this too, and yet the 83 %....

 

The victory of a well-worded poll 

I had no choice but to vote for the affirmative 

😏

[SwampD]

41 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I and most people agree with you that our core underperformed last year. Your position is not a minority position.  But I don't see the core that you previously listed changing very much. I can't say for sure how the top two lines are going to be constituted but it's likely that the lines will be made up from your list. 

My sense is that KA is not going to stray from the core that he has assembled. He seems to be saying in a variety of forums that his focus of attention is going to be on upgrading the lower lines. For the most part, I agree with that approach. Will the GM be more aggressive this offseason to bring in a top two-line player? I'm not sure that he will. 

 

Of course he won’t. It’s way cheaper to refill the bottom 6. And dudachek is right, that will not fix this team, anyway. Until there is any indication that EEE has been rescinded, we’re pretty much screwed.

[Thorny]

9 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Of course he won’t. It’s way cheaper to refill the bottom 6. And dudachek is right, that will not fix this team, anyway. Until there is any indication that EEE has been rescinded, we’re pretty much screwed.

What’s EEE?

we aren’t screwed and never are. One day people will realize the entire reason the 13 years has been so frustrating is because never, at any point, were we screwed 

we weren’t screwed in 2014 without a “star player”, we didn’t need to tank

we weren’t screwed in 2017 to the extent of needing to be “torn down to the studs” and get a high draft pick.

and we weren’t screwed when Jack said he didn’t want to be a part of a rebuild.

they just made the easy choice in all 3 cases, instead of the right one.

the drought is so frustrating specifically because we’ve *never* been screwed, making the playoffs is NOT hard, but the strategies being employed that CLAIM it to be, have, through endless runways and the constant deferring of the now in favour of the future, created a self fulfilling prophecy.

if you don’t think the now is important, it never will be 

Edited May 12 by Thorny

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, Thorny said:

People are saying his messaging has been on point this offseason, and I can kinda see it at times, but if you watch that there still seems an incredible resistance to simply uttering the words “playoffs are the goal.”

the overall tone here was one imo more so of defensiveness: “if you remember 4 years ago, I said it would take time and patience. Well, you got it. Plan continues.”

And he started out by carefully highlighting that it was his 5th year of GM. At first I was impressed: ok, he’s saying year 5, he’s saying it’s been a long time now and it’s go time.

But he actually brought up year 5 to separate himself from the “13 years” frank led off with

Haha

That's all fine, and I said it should be "go time" when we ended last season but he wanted another year of futility so okay, now it's "go time" so what is he going to do to make it "go time"? Stay the course? Just hire Ruff? I will believe it actually is different, and it is "go time" when I see the roster improvement through free agency and/or trades. 

Until then it's just the same old bs. 

[Dr. Who]

35 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

Generally agree with this. All pieces are important, and a team is only as good as all its pieces combined.

But the core is more important than the other pieces, because they are the ones that get the most ice time in the toughest situations against the best players. And, comparatively speaking, our core was the part of the team that contributed the least compared to expectations

Basically, what I am responding to is the assumption that the core will be fine if they get better pieces around them. That's not necessarily true, and it certainly wasn't last season.

If the core is not fine, the goose is cooked. KA isn't going to blow the team up. It's certainly a question mark. I think folks are focusing on the areas where change might actually happen, and hoping that plus Ruff ends well. What else can one do at this point?

[SwampD]

11 minutes ago, Thorny said:

What’s EEE?

we aren’t screwed and never are. One day people will realize the entire reason the 13 years has been so frustrating is because never, at any point, were we screwed 

we weren’t screwed in 2014 without a “star player”, we didn’t need to tank

we weren’t screwed in 2017 to the extent of needing to be “torn down to the studs” and get a high draft pick.

and we weren’t screwed when Jack said he didn’t want to be a part of a rebuild.

they just made the easy choice in all 3 cases, instead of the right one.

the drought is so frustrating specifically because we’ve *never* been screwed, making the playoffs is NOT hard, but the strategies being employed that CLAIM it to be, have, through endless runways and the constant deferring of the now in favour of the future, created a self fulfilling prophecy.

if you don’t think the now is important, it never will be 

Effective, Efficient and Economic

Everything you said I agree with, but there has to be a commitment to winning now. You are not going to win if you don’t spend money on actual contributing skaters and keep claiming it is because we are trying to win more in the future. It’s crap.

 

Edited May 12 by SwampD

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

He really is very much a "trust the process" man.

If I'm honest with myself, I think I am too, and that's why probably why I'm willing to give him every opportunity to play this out.

I think by and large his strategy is the correct one given this market and the crater that has been built in it.

But just because the strategy is correct, that doesn't mean the execution is correct.

That's where I tend to see things differently than @PerreaultForever a lot. I think Adams actually is trying to do a lot of the things he complains about in terms of culture and building from within.

It's the execution where the two of them differ: Adams went speed and skill first over grit and defence, and force-feeding youth responsibility early rather than shielding them behind a collection of Pat Maroons and Brian Giontas.

Given where we started in the summer of '21, I personally think we'd be in about the same place right now, had we followed the Maroon/Gionta path: a playoff bubble team, crossing our fingers that the youth was about to break out. But we will never know.

What we will find out over the next 12 months is whether Adams did indeed blow it, and a Lindy-led core of Thompson/Tuch/Cozens/Quinn/Peterka/Bryum/Dahlin/Power/UP/Levi - developed the way he has chosen to develop it - has the right stuff.

Because that is what Adams has built, entirely by design, and that is where he will sink or swim.

That's valid. Optimistic and a little bit in the realm of "hope and pray" but valid. That is sort of how we differ for sure. I'm just more of a burned out cynic after all these years. I don't doubt that Adams is "trying to do" it but I don't see it happening and question how it can happen the way he's doing it. How do you teach kids to be leaders when they aren't surrounded by leaders who teach them and hold them accountable? There's too much faith in some sort of organic process where it all just magically comes together. I will believe it when I see it. 

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Effective, Efficient and Economic

Everything you said I agree with, but there has to be a commitment to winning now. You are not going to win if you don’t spend money on actual contributing skaters and keep claiming it is because we are trying to win more in the future. It’s crap.

 

Teams with low payrolls make the playoffs all the time. Making the playoffs isn’t hard 

This isn’t just something I/we say. I say it cause it’s true.

Washington was ASS this year 

Edited May 12 by Thorny

[French Collection]

37 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I realize I seem to be in the minority around here on this, but adding the best 3rd and 4th liners in the world won't mean ***** if Cozens, Skinner, Thompson and Tuch combine for less than 100 goals again as our core 4 forwards.

You’re right that these guys need to generate more. I think Skinner’s new range is 24-30 goals.
Quinn and Peterka may make a move to the top of this lineup, diminishing Skinner’s ice time and points. Finding a 2-3C could mean the most balanced top 9 in a long time.

There is room to improve on Okposo, Girgs and Jost as 4th liners.

[SwampD]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Teams with low payrolls make the playoffs all the time. Making the playoffs isn’t hard 

I would bet it’s more like every once in a while.

The rest draft early.