Blow the Whole Team up in the Off-Season - It's the Only Reasonable Thing to do

[Marvin]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

A league average PP would have us with 13 more goals this season. That’s it - that’s the league average mark this season.

The difference between 27th place and being a good, solid playoff team is not 13 goals over the last 50 games.

There goes that theory.  It is the offence in general.

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, Marvin said:

There goes that theory.  It is the offence in general.

The PP is a big part of it: that theory is strong. Don’t mean to say it’s not. It’s just very important that we don’t pretend it’s a one-stop answer to all our problems. Because there are other very significant issues. 

[Marvin]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

The PP is a big part of it: that theory is strong. Don’t mean to say it’s not. It’s just very important that we don’t pretend it’s a one-stop answer to all our problems. Because there are other very significant issues. 

O.K.  Now I get you.  Thanks.

[Thorny]

Sure every team (in the east) made the playoffs with a positive goal differential, but teams miss with positive differentials all the time. It’s not tangibly relevant to this season. OUR team isn’t making up that kind of ground with a mere 13 further goals. Mathematically, ~ 6 are going to be spread out over games we already won. Of the remaining 7, half come in games we lose regardless. Probably an extra 3.5 wins with an average PP: that seems about right. 7 more points and we are still in a tie for 18th. This is what I mean: you are shaving fine on an already bottom of the barrel goal.

When you haven’t made the playoffs in over an eon, surely we need to do better than that. That’s we’d be a positive differential team, maybe, with an improved pp isn’t enough given all of this context. If we don’t beat the Kings 7-0 the differential isn’t positive anymore. It’s way too frivolous, and devoid of context, to hang out hats on that. Maybe every positive differential team got in last year, but the minimum number in the east was +17. The year before it was +30.

please aim higher than a pp coaching change followed by putting your feet up, KA

[Crusader1969]

54 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The PP is a big part of it: that theory is strong. Don’t mean to say it’s not. It’s just very important that we don’t pretend it’s a one-stop answer to all our problems. Because there are other very significant issues. 

I agree 100%.  Changes need to be made.   I want to see 4 new forwards - 1 a skill guy (this could be a prospect) and 3 foot soldiers (vets) 

I also want a top pair RHD that will cost them a lot to acquire.   
 

and a vet goalie to pair with UPL.   
 

id love to see a new coach but if we are stuck with DG, we better see some experienced assistants for him to work with 

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

The PP is a big part of it: that theory is strong. Don’t mean to say it’s not. It’s just very important that we don’t pretend it’s a one-stop answer to all our problems. Because there are other very significant issues. 

As for the PP, I'll  add it's not just a few more goals. They've given up a league leading 8 short handed goals against.   So not only are they $hit but they've killed them more than a few times by giving up a shorty 

again I'm not saying that to the only issue but it's the biggest reason they are out of it this year and it's only Feb 

[Thorny]

18 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

As for the PP, I'll  add it's not just a few more goals. They've given up a league leading 8 short handed goals against.   So not only are they $hit but they've killed them more than a few times by giving up a shorty 

again I'm not saying that to the only issue but it's the biggest reason they are out of it this year and it's only Feb 

League Average is 5 goals against

we are talking *3* goals, here 

We need to look for areas of improvement where we can mine greater value

Edited February 18 by Thorny

[Thorny]

Or, rather, look to stack these areas on top of eachother 

[Crusader1969]

32 minutes ago, Thorny said:

League Average is 5 goals against

we are talking *3* goals, here 

We need to look for areas of improvement where we can mine greater value

How many games have they lost by 1 or by 2 (when you include empty net goals against)?  A 16 goal net improvement from the PP would have made a huge difference in being in "the hunt" for a playoff spot 

To me that fix would mine the greatest value.   Again, not saying it's the only fix 

 

[Thorny]

9 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

How many games have they lost by 1 or by 2 (when you include empty net goals against)?  A 16 goal net improvement from the PP would have made a huge difference in being in "the hunt" for a playoff spot 

To me that fix would mine the greatest value.   Again, not saying it's the only fix 

 

It might be the biggest, I buy that. I definitely don’t buy the idea it’s the majority. 

[Crusader1969]

Glad to see I'm not alone 

 

[mjd1001]

Ok, another way to look at this....with the conclusion that MOST of this team is better than last year except for Cozens and Tage.

-Last year Cozens and Tage combined accounted for 0.95 goals per game. This year .49 (.0.46 less per game)

-The REST of the team besides (Tage and Cozens) last year accounted for 2.62 goals per game. This year 2.44 (only 0.18 less). Account for Tuch, Quinn, and Skinner being some of your top goal producers and the games they missed due to injury compared to last year, and that may account for that entire difference.

Defense?

-In terms of Goals allowed per game, the team this year is allowing 3.07 vs 3.62 last year (0.55 per game)

So, besides Tage and Cozens, the team has taken a slight hit in offense, but is doing better on defense by a greater margin.  OVERALL the entire team (besides those 2 guys) is doing BETTER than last year in terms of goals scored versus goals allowed.

Also The goals per game allowed are down quite a bit, but its not just goaltending. They are also allowing less shots per game than last year. UPL is allowing less behind him, but in part that is because the goalies are facing less shots.  Either way, they are allowing a lot less goals than last year.

A common complaint is the team has focused on defense but at the expense of offense. True on the surface, but again, the vast majority of that offensive shortfall is just 2 players. The rest of the team as a whole has made big strides defensively without really hurting their offensive game much.

How about the Power Play?

-Cozens and Tage LAST year accounted for goals scored on 9.3% of Power plays with between just those 2. This year?  3.8% (a 5.3% drop)   The team as a whole besides those two went from 14.1% to 10.8%, (a 3.3% drop). Cozens and Tage combined account for a greater drop in PP production than the rest of the team combined.

-PK.  Last year 73%.  The team has lost 3.3% on the power play, but has made up 6.8% on the PK. Net-net an improvement on the roster as a whole minus Tage and Cozens

In MOST metrics (including the big ones listed above) this team is performing better in many ways compared to last year besides Cozens and Tage.  That doesn't mean the team doesn't have flaws, or didn't last year.  But something to think about.  Fix those 2 guys and you likely have a better team than that you had last year.

Maybe Granato needs to go, after all he does coach the entire team INCLUDING Tage and Cozens so he is responsible for them too. But when you look at the numbers....again, Net-Net the team is better in goals scored/goals allowed overall besides those 2 guys.  

Blowing the whole team up, Firing Granato and Adams....If that is what it takes to get Tage and Cozens going again then fine. But I don't think its the best idea overall. This team needs SERIOUS surgery with a Scalpel, doesn't need the sledgehammer to the head in light of all the info above.

Edited February 20 by mjd1001

[Crusader1969]

45 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Ok, another way to look at this....with the conclusion that MOST of this team is better than last year except for Cozens and Tage.

-Last year Cozens and Tage combined accounted for 0.95 goals per game. This year .49 (.0.46 less per game)

-The REST of the team besides (Tage and Cozens) last year accounted for 2.62 goals per game. This year 2.44 (only 0.18 less). Account for Tuch, Quinn, and Skinner being some of your top goal producers and the games they missed due to injury compared to last year, and that may account for that entire difference.

Defense?

-In terms of Goals allowed per game, the team this year is allowing 3.07 vs 3.62 last year (0.55 per game)

So, besides Tage and Cozens, the team has taken a slight hit in offense, but is doing better on defense by a greater margin.  OVERALL the entire team (besides those 2 guys) is doing BETTER than last year in terms of goals scored versus goals allowed.

Also The goals per game are down quite a bit, but its not just goaltending. They are also allowing less shots per game than last year. UPL is allowing less behind him, but in part that is because the goalies are facing less shots.  Either way, they are allowing a lot less goals than last year.

A common complaint is the team has focused on defense but at the expense of offense. True on the surface, but again, the vast majority of that offensive shortfall is just 2 players. The rest of the team as a whole has made big strides defensively without really hurting their offensive game much.

How about the Power Play?

-Cozens and Tage LAST year accounted for goals scored on 9.3% of Power plays with between just those 2. This year?  3.8% (a 5.3% drop)   The team as a whole besides those two went from 14.1% to 10.8%, (a 3.3% drop). Cozens and Tage combined account for a greater drop in PP production than the rest of the team combined.

-PK.  Last year 73%.  The team has lost 3.3% on the power play, but has made up 6.8% on the PK. Net-net an improvement on the roster as a whole minus Tage and Cozens

In MOST metrics (including the big ones listed above) this team is performing better in many ways compared to last year besides Cozens and Tage.  That doesn't mean the team doesn't have flaws, or didn't last year.  But something to think about.  Fix those 2 guys and you likely have a better team than that you had last year.

Maybe Granato needs to go, after all he does coach the entire team INCLUDING Tage and Cozens so he is responsible for them too. But when you look at the numbers....again, Net-Net the team is better in goals scored/goals allowed overall besides those 2 guys.  

Blowing the whole team up, Firing Granato and Adams....If that is what it takes to get Tage and Cozens going again then fine. But I don't think its the best idea overall. This team needs SERIOUS surgery with a Scalpel, doesn't need the sledgehammer to the head in light of all the info above.

Excellent post.  
 
im 100% in agreement. 

I've been saying for a long time a legit 4th line and a top 4 RHD and a vet goalie to back up UPL

As  important - assistants that have experience and at least 1 of them that has had success coaching special teams

 

 

[mjd1001]

On 2/17/2024 at 6:13 PM, Marvin said:

There goes that theory.  It is the offence in general.

13 goals gets them to be a positive in goal differential.

I posted this in a previous thread, but every team that was a positive in the goal differential in the east has made the playoffs the past couple of years, and every team that has been a negative in goal differential has missed the playoffs

In the west it's not 100% but it's usually one team away from being 100%.

So yeah, we don't know where those 13 goals could be sprinkled around but... If history is any guide, being positive and goal differential put you in the playoffs or right on the edge of it so it definitely could make the difference.

[Flashsabre]

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/sabres-season-opening-aspirations-are-but-a-faint-glimmer-in-falling-further-out-of-contention-1.2078518

 

If they really want to move Skinner I wonder if SJ would entertain something around Couture for Skinner. Might have to sweeten but Atleast hypothetically it has some merit.

Couture is 34 and has 3 years left at $8 million and is currently injured.

He would add the vet leadership that Buffalo needs.

Skinner would give SJ the younger player that can out the puck in the net for them.

IF they want to move on from Skinner it won’t be pretty and it will involve taking on another team’s bad deal. Atleast Coture would add what they need more of.

Ofcourse with Skinner’s NMC he could block it but if the team doesn’t want you anymore maybe he waives to move on.

[Ogelthorpe]

Who are some top 4 RHD that they could go after?

[Thorny]

19 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

Glad to see I'm not alone 

 

Chad being wrong isn’t that surprising..he’s fallen off recently 

Not saying you are - you’ve mentioned you believe the PP is one of several issues - but he certainly is if he means “there’s your issue”, definitively 

He goes against the grain willingly a lot. He’s been pumping out the “things are actually fine!” content since he put out his “I’m officially done this season, it’s over” tweet. I don’t really blame him, he’s a content provider 

Edited February 20 by Thorny

[SabreFinn]

1 hour ago, Ogelthorpe said:

Who are some top 4 RHD that they could go after?

Pesce, Rasmus Andersson, Matt Roy could be the three best.

Other: Tanev, DeMelo, Nick Jensen, TJ Brodie, Adam Larsson, Parayko, Connor Murphy, Zach Whitecloud.

Edited February 20 by SabreFinn

[Pimlach]

18 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Ok, another way to look at this....with the conclusion that MOST of this team is better than last year except for Cozens and Tage.

-Last year Cozens and Tage combined accounted for 0.95 goals per game. This year .49 (.0.46 less per game)

-The REST of the team besides (Tage and Cozens) last year accounted for 2.62 goals per game. This year 2.44 (only 0.18 less). Account for Tuch, Quinn, and Skinner being some of your top goal producers and the games they missed due to injury compared to last year, and that may account for that entire difference.

Defense?

-In terms of Goals allowed per game, the team this year is allowing 3.07 vs 3.62 last year (0.55 per game)

So, besides Tage and Cozens, the team has taken a slight hit in offense, but is doing better on defense by a greater margin.  OVERALL the entire team (besides those 2 guys) is doing BETTER than last year in terms of goals scored versus goals allowed.

Also The goals per game allowed are down quite a bit, but its not just goaltending. They are also allowing less shots per game than last year. UPL is allowing less behind him, but in part that is because the goalies are facing less shots.  Either way, they are allowing a lot less goals than last year.

A common complaint is the team has focused on defense but at the expense of offense. True on the surface, but again, the vast majority of that offensive shortfall is just 2 players. The rest of the team as a whole has made big strides defensively without really hurting their offensive game much.

How about the Power Play?

-Cozens and Tage LAST year accounted for goals scored on 9.3% of Power plays with between just those 2. This year?  3.8% (a 5.3% drop)   The team as a whole besides those two went from 14.1% to 10.8%, (a 3.3% drop). Cozens and Tage combined account for a greater drop in PP production than the rest of the team combined.

-PK.  Last year 73%.  The team has lost 3.3% on the power play, but has made up 6.8% on the PK. Net-net an improvement on the roster as a whole minus Tage and Cozens

In MOST metrics (including the big ones listed above) this team is performing better in many ways compared to last year besides Cozens and Tage.  That doesn't mean the team doesn't have flaws, or didn't last year.  But something to think about.  Fix those 2 guys and you likely have a better team than that you had last year.

Maybe Granato needs to go, after all he does coach the entire team INCLUDING Tage and Cozens so he is responsible for them too. But when you look at the numbers....again, Net-Net the team is better in goals scored/goals allowed overall besides those 2 guys.  

Blowing the whole team up, Firing Granato and Adams....If that is what it takes to get Tage and Cozens going again then fine. But I don't think it’s the best idea overall. This team needs SERIOUS surgery with a Scalpel, doesn't need the sledgehammer to the head in light of all the info above.

You think most of the team is better this year except Tage and Cozens?  

Power, Samuelsson, Skinner, VO, Tuch, Okposo, Krebs, Dahlin and Levi - All of them have played consistently worse than they did last year.    Quinn is excused by injury and his contribution is sorely missed.  

Thats 12 players that declined and most of them are targeted as Core Players and stars.  

Mitts, Joker, Girgensons, and maybe Comrie are about the same as last year.   Other than Mitts that is not much.  

Peterka, UPL, and Greenway are clearly better than last year.  

We added a better 3rd pair rotation (Clifton/ EJ/RJ) than last year and Benson has been helpful most of the time.  
 

Jost and Robinson are a not applicable 

[mjd1001]

26 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

You think most of the team is better this year except Tage and Cozens?  

Without retyping my entire other post....yes. less chances allowed, slightly less goals scored with a lot less goals allowed....so yes.

[Thorny]

20 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Ok, another way to look at this....with the conclusion that MOST of this team is better than last year except for Cozens and Tage.

-Last year Cozens and Tage combined accounted for 0.95 goals per game. This year .49 (.0.46 less per game)

-The REST of the team besides (Tage and Cozens) last year accounted for 2.62 goals per game. This year 2.44 (only 0.18 less). Account for Tuch, Quinn, and Skinner being some of your top goal producers and the games they missed due to injury compared to last year, and that may account for that entire difference.

Defense?

-In terms of Goals allowed per game, the team this year is allowing 3.07 vs 3.62 last year (0.55 per game)

So, besides Tage and Cozens, the team has taken a slight hit in offense, but is doing better on defense by a greater margin.  OVERALL the entire team (besides those 2 guys) is doing BETTER than last year in terms of goals scored versus goals allowed.

Also The goals per game allowed are down quite a bit, but its not just goaltending. They are also allowing less shots per game than last year. UPL is allowing less behind him, but in part that is because the goalies are facing less shots.  Either way, they are allowing a lot less goals than last year.

A common complaint is the team has focused on defense but at the expense of offense. True on the surface, but again, the vast majority of that offensive shortfall is just 2 players. The rest of the team as a whole has made big strides defensively without really hurting their offensive game much.

How about the Power Play?

-Cozens and Tage LAST year accounted for goals scored on 9.3% of Power plays with between just those 2. This year?  3.8% (a 5.3% drop)   The team as a whole besides those two went from 14.1% to 10.8%, (a 3.3% drop). Cozens and Tage combined account for a greater drop in PP production than the rest of the team combined.

-PK.  Last year 73%.  The team has lost 3.3% on the power play, but has made up 6.8% on the PK. Net-net an improvement on the roster as a whole minus Tage and Cozens

In MOST metrics (including the big ones listed above) this team is performing better in many ways compared to last year besides Cozens and Tage.  That doesn't mean the team doesn't have flaws, or didn't last year.  But something to think about.  Fix those 2 guys and you likely have a better team than that you had last year.

Maybe Granato needs to go, after all he does coach the entire team INCLUDING Tage and Cozens so he is responsible for them too. But when you look at the numbers....again, Net-Net the team is better in goals scored/goals allowed overall besides those 2 guys.  

Blowing the whole team up, Firing Granato and Adams....If that is what it takes to get Tage and Cozens going again then fine. But I don't think its the best idea overall. This team needs SERIOUS surgery with a Scalpel, doesn't need the sledgehammer to the head in light of all the info above.

It’s a good breakdown (and I agree with your concluding sentence, tbh), but essentially what this logic is doing is cherry-picking a stat or 2, AND removing key players to do it, and in doing so also only aspiring to the output of a team that, last year, finished 20th place. That’s the key point.

Talk about leaving the end result dancing in the wind. This would be the sort of zero-urgency mindset that amounts to the sort of results we’ve seen and are well-familiar with.

Squinting really hard at the data until you lump it all on to one variable is lazy, and ineffective, and most of all: it’s not predictive.

This is what people mean when they say even math has a bias. Your post even (understandably, you’re a fan) *reads* as if you are trying to pull the most positive numbers out of the analysis, it’s skewed by the result you want, by a pro-Sabres bias.

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Chad being wrong isn’t that surprising..he’s fallen off recently 

Not saying you are - you’ve mentioned you believe the PP is one of several issues - but he certainly is if he means “there’s your issue”, definitively 

He goes against the grain willingly a lot. He’s been pumping out the “things are actually fine!” content since he put out his “I’m officially done this season, it’s over” tweet. I don’t really blame him, he’s a content provider 

I don’t think he’s entirely wrong; however there is a degree of square pieces into round holes, massive downturns in most players and our record being worse. 
 

Hopefully this year was just a down year with a lot of bad luck and with some good roster moves we’ll shoot right back up the standings.

Honestly while the Powerplay isn’t THE reason we are worse this year, it is also very true our record would be far better if our powerplay was even middle of the pack. It’s one of those oddly specific changes you can tweak and see massive gains or losses while not actually being the root cause. Imagine, if you will that we had the 15th ranked powerplay. Arizona holds that position at just over 21%. With our PP chances we’d have just about 33/34 goals which would give us 10/11 more goals for. For starters that would make us a positive goal differential team. (+1/2) But far more importantly I would very easily assume our record would be better. We are 24-27-4. With those extra goals let’s minus 5 losses and say it’s 1-0-4. Nothing drastic in success but brings us up to 25-23-8 for 58pts which would put us in the tail position but still a legitimate shot at the playoffs. 

[thewookie1]

3 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

If they really want to move Skinner I wonder if SJ would entertain something around Couture for Skinner. Might have to sweeten but Atleast hypothetically it has some merit.

Couture is 34 and has 3 years left at $8 million and is currently injured.

He would add the vet leadership that Buffalo needs.

Skinner would give SJ the younger player that can out the puck in the net for them.

IF they want to move on from Skinner it won’t be pretty and it will involve taking on another team’s bad deal. Atleast Coture would add what they need more of.

Ofcourse with Skinner’s NMC he could block it but if the team doesn’t want you anymore maybe he waives to move on.

If they’ll do it for Skinner, sure. I’ll eat that lost point production for even LTIR space that can play within a system.
 

Otherwise I’d be very selective about the ask and retention. You want a 3rd for Couture at 4milx3? Sure, worst he can be is LTIR bait that can bring good vibes to the locker room. At best he can be an experienced leader playing 3rd line minutes and coming through in the clutch.

[Thorny]

13 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I don’t think he’s entirely wrong; however there is a degree of square pieces into round holes, massive downturns in most players and our record being worse. 
 

Hopefully this year was just a down year with a lot of bad luck and with some good roster moves we’ll shoot right back up the standings.

Honestly while the Powerplay isn’t THE reason we are worse this year, it is also very true our record would be far better if our powerplay was even middle of the pack. It’s one of those oddly specific changes you can tweak and see massive gains or losses while not actually being the root cause. Imagine, if you will that we had the 15th ranked powerplay. Arizona holds that position at just over 21%. With our PP chances we’d have just about 33/34 goals which would give us 10/11 more goals for. For starters that would make us a positive goal differential team. (+1/2) But far more importantly I would very easily assume our record would be better. We are 24-27-4. With those extra goals let’s minus 5 losses and say it’s 1-0-4. Nothing drastic in success but brings us up to 25-23-8 for 58pts which would put us in the tail position but still a legitimate shot at the playoffs. 

We are on the same page if we are agreeing Adams needs to be proactive in addressing several holes this offseason. I do think several moderate reinforcements would go all long way, in an alchemical sense I think they’d represent more than the sum of their parts: in that the entire team will see benefit from them. We can’t shave on these additions and put ourselves in a position where *if everything goes to plan* we are the 16th seed. We can surround ourselves with mathematically reasonably conclusions yet if you are counting on 10 things that are pretty likely, not all of them are going to go right: regardless of them all being likely. This is an issue of *strategy*, not analysis.

I’ve been trying to say this forever: I agree with quite a bit of KA’s analysis in a vacuum but it’s how he strategically goes about implementing things that loses me. If the playoffs are the mandate, it’s absolutely not good enough to structure things in such a way that things COULD go right. If it’s truly a hard line expectation, the roster needs to be configured in such a way that *some things can go wrong and we still make the playoffs*. That’s what people need to accept: we’ve gotten the roster to a point where success is theoretically possible. But it’s about the results. Isn’t it now, finally?

If you are measuring a goal by the actual result, you need to put yourself in a position where that result is protected by failsafes.

Our failsafes for some of our most risky bets this year included..rostering Eric Comrie, a non nhl er, who’d need to see a lot of action should Levi not break *crazy historical precedent*.
 

Adams didn’t, hasn’t, managed the roster in such a way that actually had any sort of urgency towards making the playoffs. He hasn’t acted like it truly NEEDED to happen: he just made moves where it remained reasonably possible. That’s not going to cut it 

Edited February 20 by Thorny

[Mr Peabody]

Going back to my pre-retirement days Thorny’s post got me thinking had we done an impact probability matrix pre-season maybe the results to date wouldn’t be so shocking?