Dahlin or Power, Who Will Have The Better Career?

[PerreaultForever]

7 hours ago, Thorny said:

No, I mean in the very post you just quoted I stated I think he’s a good player. I say what I think. He’s accurately paid, too. Good contract. He’s certainly a 4 million dollar player, yes. What’s Dahlin going to get, about 10? 

Seems about right, to me. And that’s pretty much my central point because that sort of split flies in the face of the common breakdown you see between the two. You often see more of a closer, even up to 50/50, “they make each other better” stance. Accounts on Twitter you’d usually call reasonably balanced suggesting Samuelsson might be our MVP. Or the best defensive defenceman in the world.

Obviously not pinning you on those stances specifically but the “allows” verbiage certainly hinted at it and that’s what I was addressing. It’s always the one, singular data point in his favour brought up, the difference in record while he was out: which, if you read what I wrote, I didn’t call a coincidence at all. It just happens to have an Occam’s razor, obvious explanation.

Samuelsson isn’t bad, his numbers suggest he was decent (and he’ll get better). But his supposed greatness is relative: I’m not denying there was a great swing in performance, team wise, with him out. But again, relative: Samuelsson’s very decent (but just decent) output *is* a chasm away from the replacement level player we iced in his stead- and the effect it had on the d unit as a whole. 

Samuelsson’s great value lied in the fact he represented a scarce asset last year: that of a competent nhl defender. Value found in the rarity. 

And it’s why Adams more moderate D additions this summer should he enough! Because when Samuelsson or the next guy *inevitably* goes down with an injury, Clifton and Johnson are good enough to fill in, being a chasm away from Bryson, themselves. 
 

Think about it: If the record without Samuelsson was *truly* reflective, replacing him would be a much bigger problem went he inevitably goes down, given his style of game. The additions Adams made IMO supports my analysis of Samuelsson and my analysis of Samuelsson supports my view that Adams did a good job addressing D this offseason 

Ya but a "competent" defender is all Dahlin needs. That guy does in fact allow Dahlin to be better. That's all I said and I'm not sure why it's hard to get. 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

It's fun that we have 2 #1 defenders though

There better be. There wasn't much fun in what it took to get them. 

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

Dahlin vs Power

Power might have more upside in terms of raw physical tools.  He is bigger, at least as good a skater, maybe better, and has comparable puck skills.  His size plus skating ability give him a pretty high ceiling defensively.

Dahlin is more physical (and nastier) at this point, though I’d expect Power to catch up over the next few years.  One big difference I see between the two that leans in favor of Dahlin is that while Power can calmly evaluate a situation and make a high quality play pretty consistently, Dahlin will sometimes create a dynamic play that no one knew was even possible.

I can’t really pick one over the other.  They will be different and a lot depends on how Power develops.

I also want to cation people against putting too much stock into comparing rookie Power to rookie Dahlin.  Very different situations.  Different team environments and rookie Power was a year and a half older than rookie Dahlin was.

The bolded is a great observation.  

[Thorny]

5 hours ago, Curt said:

Your comment comes across as pretty negative, but I mostly agree.  Samuelsson was fine last season but I was a little disappointed.  I think he performed at the level of an average 2nd pair defenseman, which is fine, but I don’t think he brought anything that allowed Dahlin to do anything he couldn’t do with just about any other 2nd pair guy who plays decent defense.

Relative negativity 

- - - 

Anyways, the bolded bit is the crux of it 

Edited August 10, 2023 by Thorny

[triumph_communes]

Power lacks killer instinct 

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, sabresparaavida said:

I was reading through this thread and saw people on opposite sides, some saying Dahlin was better in his rookie season (at both ends of the ice), some saying Power was (or at least defensively). This got me pretty curious, so I decided to dive in a bit into their analytics. 
 

What I discovered was that the bolded was wildly inaccurate. Dahlin was better in just about every metric. CF, CA, relative CF, relative CA, Fenwick for and against. And when you check the team relative stats, the difference just grew bigger. Owen Power had a team relative CF % of 0.5%. This means that for every 200 shots taken, when Owen Power was on the ice, 1 more was for the Sabres than when he wasn’t playing. Meanwhile, in Dahlin’s rookie season, he had a whopping 10.6% team relative cf%. 
 

To be fair to Owen Power though, he is a larger player, and taller players tend to take longer to develop. Dahlin also had a higher Ozone start rate at 65.6%, compared to Power’s 56.6%. however, the Ozone starts do not make up the difference in the rest of the advanced stats, which pretty clearly show that Dahlin had a better rookie season. When you add that to Dahlin being a full year younger than Power for their respective seasons, it is pretty clear that Dahlin was ahead of where Power is now, when he was his age. Again though, that could be somewhat due to Power not having grown into his body yet. 
 

If any of you are curious, and wish to check some of the stats for yourself, I attached the links I checked here.

power: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/powerow01.html

Dahlin: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/d/dahlira01.html

 

Exactly. People have totally forgotten how good rookie Dahlin was. F Ralph Krueger 

[sabresparaavida]

I’d like to apologize, this morning I realized much of my analysis up thread was flawed.The numbers I was looking at for both players were for all situations, which would help Dahlin as he was getting PP1 time in his rookie season. While I still think the data shows that Dahlin was better, it is a lot closer (at least on defense) than what I was seeing last night.  Dahlin at even strength had a significantly higher CF/60 than Power, as well as a higher FenwickF/60. It is pretty clear that Dahlin drove more offense in his rookie season than Power did. The defensive numbers are pretty close though. Power had a lower CA/60, but a higher FenwickA/60. The conclusion to be drawn there is that while the Sabres gave up more shots while Dahlin was on the ice his rookie season, Owen Power was on the ice for more a good chunk more high danger chances. The gap in Ozone starts shrunk, with Dahlin having 3% more Ozone starts. 
 

After diving back in, I think that Dahlin was undeniably better offensively in his rookie season, but defensively, they were so close that it’s hard to pick out who was better. I’d give a slight edge to Dahlin, as his team relative stats were better. (Power actually had a team relative FF%).

 

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

I’d like to apologize, this morning I realized much of my analysis up thread was flawed.The numbers I was looking at for both players were for all situations, which would help Dahlin as he was getting PP1 time in his rookie season. While I still think the data shows that Dahlin was better, it is a lot closer (at least on defense) than what I was seeing last night.  Dahlin at even strength had a significantly higher CF/60 than Power, as well as a higher FenwickF/60. It is pretty clear that Dahlin drove more offense in his rookie season than Power did. The defensive numbers are pretty close though. Power had a lower CA/60, but a higher FenwickA/60. The conclusion to be drawn there is that while the Sabres gave up more shots while Dahlin was on the ice his rookie season, Owen Power was on the ice for more a good chunk more high danger chances. The gap in Ozone starts shrunk, with Dahlin having 3% more Ozone starts. 
 

After diving back in, I think that Dahlin was undeniably better offensively in his rookie season, but defensively, they were so close that it’s hard to pick out who was better. I’d give a slight edge to Dahlin, as his team relative stats were better. (Power actually had a team relative FF%).

 

Dahlin was better defensively because he played on a worse team. That's the issue with these comparisons. Dahlin played for a team that was bad and Power played for a team that was a bubble team. Dahlin is the better player and that isn't a knock on Owen Power who I have come to really like and appreciate. Power is like 90% of Dahlin and could get even closer but for now, Dahlin is truly a level above. Really excited for Power to have with Clifton and to see him in his 2nd season. I expect a really big jump up. 

[sabresparaavida]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Dahlin was better defensively because he played on a worse team. That's the issue with these comparisons. Dahlin played for a team that was bad and Power played for a team that was a bubble team. Dahlin is the better player and that isn't a knock on Owen Power who I have come to really like and appreciate. Power is like 90% of Dahlin and could get even closer but for now, Dahlin is truly a level above. Really excited for Power to have with Clifton and to see him in his 2nd season. I expect a really big jump up. 

The team itself was definitely worse, but was it worse defensively? Dahlin’s rookie year we gave up 271 goals compared to 300 last year. Between the better goaltending and league wise scoring increase, I’d say the team was probably comparable defensively. 

[Thorny]

12 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

The team itself was definitely worse, but was it worse defensively? Dahlin’s rookie year we gave up 271 goals compared to 300 last year. Between the better goaltending and league wise scoring increase, I’d say the team was probably comparable defensively. 

Difference being Rookie Power got to slide into the mactchups left for him behind all star Rasmus Dahiin. Rasmus Dahlin year 1 was sheltered by..the ghost of Dahlin future

So in comparing rookie seasons Dahlin was 

- significantly better offensively

- slightly better defensively 

- a full 1.5 years younger than Power (to my mind the craziest indicator)

- adjusting to a full season on NA ice 

- on a significantly inferior team (Power’s output may only have been slightly aided defensively by this but certainly offensively, which was already far apart in comparison 

Edited August 10, 2023 by Thorny

[sabresparaavida]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Difference being Rookie Power got to slide into the mactchups left for him behind all star Rasmus Dahiin. Rasmus Dahlin year 1 was sheltered by..the ghost of Dahlin future

So in comparing rookie seasons Dahlin was 

- significantly better offensively

- slightly better defensively 

- a full 1.5 years younger than Power (to my mind the craziest indicator)

- adjusting to a full season on NA ice 

- on a significantly inferior team (Power’s output may only have been slightly aided defensively by this but certainly offensively, which was already far apart in comparison 

Not so sure that this is completely accurate, Dahlin was somewhat sheltered in his rookie season, he was behind Risto, Bogo, and Montour in ice time. (Montour only here for 20 games though). Power played a full 2.5 more minutes per game than Dahlin in his rookie season. 

[Thorny]

17 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

Not so sure that this is completely accurate, Dahlin was somewhat sheltered in his rookie season, he was behind Risto, Bogo, and Montour in ice time. (Montour only here for 20 games though). Power played a full 2.5 more minutes per game than Dahlin in his rookie season. 

So for the full year Dahlin was 3rd? Second pair? What was Power, 3rd as well, 2nd pair? 

I definitely had Dahlin on pair 1 in my recollection so thanks for the correction on that 

Power still obviously had the benefit of playing behind a better player, but maybe that doesn’t matter much if those added minutes are reasonably difficult ones. I’m not sure what his competition was like, neither how much of the more difficult matchups were lumped on Dahlin his rookie year because he was arguably already our best D man 

edit again - checking, Power was 2ND in ice time this year for D. It’s interesting as a dynamic cause he WAS second pair, right? But he had more time than Samuelsson. Pp2?

yes, I see 8 pp assists for OP and zero pp points for Sammy so that’s prob the difference there. Already last season details are slipping my mind 

Edited August 10, 2023 by Thorny

[Thorny]

We must have had a way more balanced 6 man unit by ice time that year. Because if both second pair but Power 2.5 mins more I imagine our 3rd pair was getting very limited this year. Which makes sense given composition 

Edited August 10, 2023 by Thorny

[Thorny]

Love this, including Clague because it’s exactly the point where the usual suspects are gone and the usage/talent discrepancies get more all over the place.

Heavy usage on our top 4, heavy on our top *5* forwards. Those were Granato’s go to’s. Notably, Quinn isn’t there. The idea we can fill his spot internally obviously makes sense if all we feel it necessary to do is replicate what he did last year, this 

in a sense, Quinn Krebs Peterka were 4th liners, by ice time. For forwards they ranked 10-12. Of course, that’s including special teams 

Edited August 10, 2023 by Thorny

[sabresparaavida]

54 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So for the full year Dahlin was 3rd? Second pair? What was Power, 3rd as well, 2nd pair? 

I definitely had Dahlin on pair 1 in my recollection so thanks for the correction on that 

Power still obviously had the benefit of playing behind a better player, but maybe that doesn’t matter much if those added minutes are reasonably difficult ones. I’m not sure what his competition was like, neither how much of the more difficult matchups were lumped on Dahlin his rookie year because he was arguably already our best D man 

edit again - checking, Power was 2ND in ice time this year for D. It’s interesting as a dynamic cause he WAS second pair, right? But he had more time than Samuelsson. Pp2?

yes, I see 8 pp assists for OP and zero pp points for Sammy so that’s prob the difference there. Already last season details are slipping my mind 

For the full year, Dahlin was 3rd among D in ice time, though IIRC he was getting PP1 time, so when it came to even strength minutes, he was 2nd pairing. Risto was getting workhorse minutes, and Bogo was getting 1st pairing even strength minutes. Part of it was the injuries, as Samuelson and Dahlin weren’t always playing together.  
As for the benefit of playing behind a better player, I don’t think Power got as much as you think, with Housely playing Risto in the tough minutes, similar to how Dahlin was getting the tough minutes this year. 

Dahlin his rookie season got next to no PK time, but Power had a significant amount. I think another big difference is Housely kept the pairings a little more Rigid than Granato, who seemed to switch up his pairings more mid game depending on the situation. Power was averaging about a minute more than Samuellson at even strength last year. 

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

For the full year, Dahlin was 3rd among D in ice time, though IIRC he was getting PP1 time, so when it came to even strength minutes, he was 2nd pairing. Risto was getting workhorse minutes, and Bogo was getting 1st pairing even strength minutes. Part of it was the injuries, as Samuelson and Dahlin weren’t always playing together.  
As for the benefit of playing behind a better player, I don’t think Power got as much as you think, with Housely playing Risto in the tough minutes, similar to how Dahlin was getting the tough minutes this year. 

Dahlin his rookie season got next to no PK time, but Power had a significant amount. I think another big difference is Housely kept the pairings a little more Rigid than Granato, who seemed to switch up his pairings more mid game depending on the situation. Power was averaging about a minute more than Samuellson at even strength last year. 

Right ok. I always think of Samuelsson stapled to Dahlin’s hip but I guess that wasn’t always the case 

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

So for the full year Dahlin was 3rd? Second pair? What was Power, 3rd as well, 2nd pair? 

I definitely had Dahlin on pair 1 in my recollection so thanks for the correction on that 

Power still obviously had the benefit of playing behind a better player, but maybe that doesn’t matter much if those added minutes are reasonably difficult ones. I’m not sure what his competition was like, neither how much of the more difficult matchups were lumped on Dahlin his rookie year because he was arguably already our best D man 

edit again - checking, Power was 2ND in ice time this year for D. It’s interesting as a dynamic cause he WAS second pair, right? But he had more time than Samuelsson. Pp2?

yes, I see 8 pp assists for OP and zero pp points for Sammy so that’s prob the difference there. Already last season details are slipping my mind 

 

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

We must have had a way more balanced 6 man unit by ice time that year. Because if both second pair but Power 2.5 mins more I imagine our 3rd pair was getting very limited this year. Which makes sense given composition 

 

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Love this, including Clague because it’s exactly the point where the usual suspects are gone and the usage/talent discrepancies get more all over the place.

Heavy usage on our top 4, heavy on our top *5* forwards. Those were Granato’s go to’s. Notably, Quinn isn’t there. The idea we can fill his spot internally obviously makes sense if all we feel it necessary to do is replicate what he did last year, this 

in a sense, Quinn Krebs Peterka were 4th liners, by ice time. For forwards they ranked 10-12. Of course, that’s including special teams 

Thanks for this.

it's long been a pet peeve of mine how being on the 2nd line and being a second liner are not at all the same thing. Ice time is what matters.

Lines get juggled, penalties taken, injuries happen, shifts get missed, benches get shortened.

The most remarkable stat about Owen Power last year was that he ranked 5th IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE in total even-strength ice time and 6th in ES ice-time per game —a full minute more than Cale Makar, 2 minutes more than Adam Fox, 2 1/2 more than calder-winner Mortiz Seider as a rookie, nearly 3 minutes more than a rookie Dahlin.

Sometimes he was lucky enough to play with Dahlin. More often he played with Jokiharju, or Lyubushkin.

The idea that he was heavily sheltered because of Dahlin is preposterous. At least 2 defencemen are on the ice at all times, at least 4 log significant minutes. Owen Power was out there A LOT against good players and in hard situations. As far as the sabres defence goes, Power was the one doing much of the sheltering. He may have been the least-sheltered rookie defenceman of all-time.

Sorry, this is more about the calder trophy voting than anything else. I don't think the average fan has any idea what Owen Power was asked to do last year.

Edited August 10, 2023 by dudacek

[Curt]

19 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Rookie Dahlin was better than Rookie Power.

Also Dahlin is a better skater and possesses puck skills Power has only shown flashes of. I can't agree with what you say here. 

It's fun that we have 2 #1 defenders though

I agree that rookie Dahlin was better.  Year 2-3 Dahlin was not really.

My comments were more geared towards what they can each be at peak.

The skating, I think is pretty close.  If Dahlin is better, I don’t think it’s significantly so.  I could easily see Power improve this over the next 2-3 years to where he is better than Dahlin when at the same age.

I agree that Dahlin has better puck handling skills.  I think Power is comparable in this but isn’t as inclined to go for the flashy, dynamic play.

[Thorny]

59 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

 

Thanks for this.

it's long been a pet peeve of mine how being on the 2nd line and being a second liner are not at all the same thing. Ice time is what matters.

Lines get juggled, penalties taken, injuries happen, shifts get missed, benches get shortened.

The most remarkable stat about Owen Power last year was that he ranked 5th IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE in total even-strength ice time and 6th in ES ice-time per game —a full minute more than Cale Makar, 2 minutes more than Adam Fox, 2 1/2 more than calder-winner Mortiz Seider as a rookie, nearly 3 minutes more than a rookie Dahlin.

Sometimes he was lucky enough to play with Dahlin. More often he played with Jokiharju, or Lyubushkin.

The idea that he was heavily sheltered because of Dahlin is preposterous. At least 2 defencemen are on the ice at all times, at least 4 log significant minutes. Owen Power was out there A LOT against good players and in hard situations. As far as the sabres defence goes, Power was the one doing much of the sheltering. He may have been the least-sheltered rookie defenceman of all-time.

Sorry, this is more about the calder trophy voting than anything else. I don't think the average fan has any idea what Owen Power was asked to do last year.

It was easier for me to live with considering we already went through Dahlin finishing 3rd during his, more remarkable, rookie season. 

A big take away for me re: ice time is how clearly Dahlin cements his case as our MVP. He’s playing 7 minutes more a game than Tage, 39% (!) more. 

18 minutes ago, Curt said:

I agree that rookie Dahlin was better.  Year 2-3 Dahlin was not really.

My comments were more geared towards what they can each be at peak.

The skating, I think is pretty close.  If Dahlin is better, I don’t think it’s significantly so.  I could easily see Power improve this over the next 2-3 years to where he is better than Dahlin when at the same age.

I agree that Dahlin has better puck handling skills.  I think Power is comparable in this but isn’t as inclined to go for the flashy, dynamic play.

Dahlin is also the better playmaker. He’s the best on our team and he makes passes most nhlers don’t or can’t. I always associate playmaking in a big way with vision, so whether or not vision gets lumped in with IQ I guess determines who id say has the better IQ. At least, “offensive awareness”, to borrow an EA NHL category 

Edited August 10, 2023 by Thorny

[dudacek]

46 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It was easier for me to live with considering we already went through Dahlin finishing 3rd during his, more remarkable, rookie season. 

A big take away for me re: ice time is how clearly Dahlin cements his case as our MVP. He’s playing 7 minutes more a game than Tage, 39% (!) more.

I think we going to see Dahlin and Samuelsson split up than most expect. I get the sense Clifton and Johnson will result in a more even ES rotation and more R/L emphasis. it least that's my reading of what donnie said post-FA

Something like this maybe, as a base?

• Dahlin Johnson 10 minutes ES
• Power Clifton 12 ES
• Mule Jokiharju 12 ES
• Power Dahlin 4 Looking for extra offence ES
• Samuelsson Dahlin 4 Looking for extra defence ES
• PP: Dahlin 5, Power 3
• SH: Mule/Clifton 3 Johnson 2 Other guys 1-2

With the rest being the random pairings that injuries and game situations spit out. That layout turns the minefield that was the 3rd pairing last year into something that can survive hard opponents when they have to, and should do well against their preferred matchups. The 2nd pairing is improved as well, and Dahlin is so strong he and Johnson should be fine if they aren't ridden hard like a top shutdown pair. Could be a way to some reasonable improvement in our goals against if the forwards and goalies co-operate.

So something like this on average:

• Dahlin 25
• Power 23
• Mule 21
• Clifton 19
• Jokiharju 18
• Johnson 14

Edited August 10, 2023 by dudacek

[Thorny]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think we going to see Dahlin and Samuelsson split up than most expect. I get the sense Clifton and Johnson will result in a more even ES rotation and more R/L emphasis. it least that's my reading of what donnie said post-FA

Something like this maybe, as a base?

• Dahlin Johnson 10 minutes ES
• Power Clifton 12 ES
• Mule Jokiharju 12 ES
• Power Dahlin 4 Looking for extra offence ES
• Samuelsson Dahlin 4 Looking for extra defence ES
• PP: Dahlin 5, Power 3
• SH: Mule/Clifton 3 Johnson 2 Other guys 1-2

With the rest being the random pairings that injuries and game situations spit out. That layout turns the minefield that was the 3rd pairing last year into something that can survive hard opponents when they have to, and should do well against their preferred matchups. The 2nd pairing is improved as well, and Dahlin is so strong he and Johnson should be fine if they aren't ridden hard like a top shutdown pair. Could be a way to some reasonable improvement in our goals against if the forwards and goalies co-operate.

So something like this on average:

• Dahlin 25
• Power 23
• Mule 21
• Clifton 19
• Jokiharju 18
• Johnson 14

I like it but I think I need Dahlin leading in ES minutes, one way or another 

[French Collection]

16 hours ago, dudacek said:

it's long been a pet peeve of mine how being on the 2nd line and being a second liner are not at all the same thing. Ice time is what matters.

It’s like hearing that Sam Reinhart is a third liner in Florida. He was third in TOI for forwards behind Barkov and Tkachuk.

Sure he plays on the third line but he is on PP1 and plays PK as well.

[Archie Lee]

It’s too early to predict. Last year we got our first look at the elite “I’m a man now” game that Dahlin can play. We are a year or two away from seeing that with Power. 
 

Re: Samuelsson, I think it is possible that he is our 3rd pairing left shot D this year, likely paired with Johnson. I don’t think we targeted right shot D as UFAs with the goal of keeping Joker and Boosh out of the lineup. I think the underlying numbers showed the reality of the Sammy/Dahlin pairing was not quite what the perception was. Add in that Samuelsson has yet to show he can stay healthy and I think reducing his minutes is something they want to do in 23-24. 
 

Also, I could be wrong. 

[LGR4GM]

Have the Sabres ever had a better defender than Power or Dahlin 

?

[pi2000]

On 8/9/2023 at 7:08 PM, LGR4GM said:

Rookie Dahlin was better than Rookie Power.

Also Dahlin is a better skater and possesses puck skills Power has only shown flashes of. I can't agree with what you say here. 

It's fun that we have 2 #1 defenders though

Dahlin -13, 44 points, 21:09 toi, 20 ppp, 2:51 pp/toi

Power +10, 35 points , 23:48 toi, 8 ppp, 1:58 pp/toi

Dahlin soent more time on the power play his rookie year, he's the more skilled and creative offensive player.

That said, Power had the better rookie season even strength... better +/-, more es points, toi... but they're very very close.