Starting goaltending: what do we really think about the situation in the crease?

[Randall Flagg]

37 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’m starting to think there are only 2 paths worth taking: pay the price for Gibson, Hart or Hellebuyck, or put all your chips on Levi and use those assets to acquire Pesce/Hanifin.

I don’t think a good middle ground option for goalie acquisition exists.

 

I tried to post something just like this in the Clifton thread. 

A sort of middle ground COULD work but I just can't fathom why anyone would be comfortable with placing that bet when the Sabres assets, league cap situation and general player availability are just begging to SOLVE the question marks absolutely 

In my nightmare, Kevyn starts a family business from scratch, guts through tough times and lean years to produce something on the precipice of setting up his family for generations, and then inexplicably goes cheap on something that was previously foundational to the whole thing while everyone adjacent pulls out their hair and asks: what do you even mean "risking the future?!?!?!?!"

Rounding the corner on the last leg of a quest to the lost castle, approaching the moat and deciding to swim across instead of using the available drawbridge. Sure, maybe there aren't crocodiles, but THE BRIDGE IS RIGHT THERE KEVYN OH MY GOD WE SURVIVED DRAGONS SOMEHOW AND HERE YOU ARE DOING THIS 

Edited July 3, 2023 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

I'm not panicking yet by the way, the roster is still likely in a transient state 

[JohnC]

6 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I think if we gave up UPL and Rosen (as was suggested) for Helle for one year, that might be all Kevyn would want to commit to.  Everyone says trading for Helle is contingent on signing an extension, but I don't think Kevyn would want to pay the dollars and term that Helle would command.  I think Hellebyuck would literally be a rental where Kevyn might trade him out at the deadline for roughly what he paid for him- a goalie prospect and another prospect, to a team looking to sign him long term.  That tells me that to Kevyn, acquiring Hellebyuck (or another top shelf goalie) is probably a non-starter.

Yeah, there's a reason I'm not an NHL GM.

I admire your faith.

Echoing what you stated is the reason why I don't believe the GM will deal for a top shelf goalie. Another reason is that a team such as Winnipeg is not going to give up a highly prized asset for a minimal price. There is no question that his upcoming UFL status lowers his trade value. But by biding their time there may come a time in the season where a contending team needs a goalie due to an injury or to compete. The assets that many of the posters want to give up are not satisfactory to the receiving team, and those who advocate paying a higher price for a rental don't take into consideration that KA has a history of being reluctant in giving up assets, especially those that are young. 

I'm not as aghast with our goalie situation as most are here. The bigger and overriding issue for me is improved team defensive play. With the additions that KA made so far it should help in that area. I'm really excited about the upcoming season!

[Pimlach]

1. Not sure about next year but in future Levi is likely to be a 1A 

2. Yes, get a goalie that can win right now and push Levi, can be short term to keep price down 

3.  We have the prospects or picks to spare to vault ahead and start winning. One first pick and one expendable player/prospect

 

I want to win right now.   We are not going to field all those forward prospects, that is impossible, so go get a goalie. 

[nfreeman]

7 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I tried to post something just like this in the Clifton thread. 

A sort of middle ground COULD work but I just can't fathom why anyone would be comfortable with placing that bet when the Sabres assets, league cap situation and general player availability are just begging to SOLVE the question marks absolutely 

In my nightmare, Kevyn starts a family business from scratch, guts through tough times and lean years to produce something on the precipice of setting up his family for generations, and then inexplicably goes cheap on something that was previously foundational to the whole thing while everyone adjacent pulls out their hair and asks: what do you even mean "risking the future?!?!?!?!"

Rounding the corner on the last leg of a quest to the lost castle, approaching the moat and deciding to swim across instead of using the available drawbridge. Sure, maybe there aren't crocodiles, but THE BRIDGE IS RIGHT THERE KEVYN OH MY GOD WE SURVIVED DRAGONS SOMEHOW AND HERE YOU ARE DOING THIS 

OK, but IRL, are you trading JJP or Kulich or Savoie or Benson for Gibson, Hart or 1 year of Helle?

[Doohickie]

58 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm not as aghast with our goalie situation as most are here.

When I look at how the Sabres are building, I think of the mid-90s Red Wings; I was living in Detroit at the time.  I'd been living away from Buffalo and had lost contact with pretty much all Buffalo sports (in the 80s there was no internet and cable, let alone premium sports cable was beyond my reach financially).  Anyway, we moved to Detroit in '91 and I saw up close how the dynasty in its early days unfolded. 

They went through young goalies, moving on from Tim Cheveldae and giving the reins to Chris Osgood who was good, not great, his rookie year in a tandem with Bob Essensa who was well past his best years in the NHL.  When they brought in Mike Vernon, it finally stabilized Osgood's game and he went on to be a very steady goalie with a 0.900-0.920 Sv% for the rest of his time with the Wings.  Vernon himself had a lower Sv% than Osgood but at first was the guy who got the big games, taking the team to a conference final in '95 and a Cup in '97. 

The point is, the team was largely set and it still took Detroit a couple years to find the right goalie situation.  In the case of the Sabres, the fan base is used to the team succeeding largely on a goalies heroics (Hasek, Miller) and then trying to ride him to success.  Kevyn is building the team from the other end, building the offense, building the defense, and then addressing goalie.  I think it's important to Adams that the team be contender level because of the skaters, not because of the goalie, because goalie is such a mercurial position.  If they built around a goalie and the goalie falters, moving onto the next one can feel like tearing the heart out of the team.  But if the team is built to be fundamentally sound and deep on the forward lines and defense, switching goalies is less traumatic.

I know fans are impatient for a Cup, but I still think Kevyn is doing it right.

[JohnC]

15 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

When I look at how the Sabres are building, I think of the mid-90s Red Wings; I was living in Detroit at the time.  I'd been living away from Buffalo and had lost contact with pretty much all Buffalo sports (in the 80s there was no internet and cable, let alone premium sports cable was beyond my reach financially).  Anyway, we moved to Detroit in '91 and I saw up close how the dynasty in its early days unfolded. 

They went through young goalies, moving on from Tim Cheveldae and giving the reins to Chris Osgood who was good, not great, his rookie year in a tandem with Bob Essensa who was well past his best years in the NHL.  When they brought in Mike Vernon, it finally stabilized Osgood's game and he went on to be a very steady goalie with a 0.900-0.920 Sv% for the rest of his time with the Wings.  Vernon himself had a lower Sv% than Osgood but at first was the guy who got the big games, taking the team to a conference final in '95 and a Cup in '97. 

The point is, the team was largely set and it still took Detroit a couple years to find the right goalie situation.  In the case of the Sabres, the fan base is used to the team succeeding largely on a goalies heroics (Hasek, Miller) and then trying to ride him to success.  Kevyn is building the team from the other end, building the offense, building the defense, and then addressing goalie.  I think it's important to Adams that the team be contender level because of the skaters, not because of the goalie, because goalie is such a mercurial position.  If they built around a goalie and the goalie falters, moving onto the next one can feel like tearing the heart out of the team.  But if the team is built to be fundamentally sound and deep on the forward lines and defense, switching goalies is less traumatic.

I know fans are impatient for a Cup, but I still think Kevyn is doing it right.

There is a good chance that the Sabres already have their stalwart goalie in Levi. Time will tell on that. However, there is no denying that the GM already has been successful in expanding the talent base not only for its NHL team but also throughout the system. The GM has been methodical in executing his rebuilding plan. In my mind, he is one year ahead of schedule. Understandably, the GM has recently been criticized by some for his conservatism and unwillingness to make a splash deal in order to accelerate the team's progression. I take a different view. It is because of his resoluteness in adhering to his beliefs is why this franchise has advanced as quickly as it has under his guidance. 

[tom webster]

36 minutes ago, JohnC said:

There is a good chance that the Sabres already have their stalwart goalie in Levi. Time will tell on that. However, there is no denying that the GM already has been successful in expanding the talent base not only for its NHL team but also throughout the system. The GM has been methodical in executing his rebuilding plan. In my mind, he is one year ahead of schedule. Understandably, the GM has recently been criticized by some for his conservatism and unwillingness to make a splash deal in order to accelerate the team's progression. I take a different view. It is because of his resoluteness in adhering to his beliefs is why this franchise has advanced as quickly as it has under his guidance. 

We are probably not that far apart on the optimism scale but the thing that continues to undermine your logic is the general manager himself constantly telling us how close he was to a deal but apparently unable to close the deal. Logic says that if he’s in till the end that he’s not satisfied with the status quo, he’s just unable to do anything about it.

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

OK, but IRL, are you trading JJP or Kulich or Savoie or Benson for Gibson, Hart or 1 year of Helle?

I am absolutely putting together an offer that would get one of those teams to give up one of those goalies (or Saros)

Savoie and Kulich are available for Helle or Saros

You won't need them for the other ones if there is even a chance the other ones can move 

[nfreeman]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I am absolutely putting together an offer that would get one of those teams to give up one of those goalies (or Saros)

Savoie and Kulich are available for Helle or Saros

You won't need them for the other ones if there is even a chance the other ones can move 

And are you trading Savoie or Kulich for 1 year of Helle, or is that only with an extension as part of the deal?

And if you are giving Helle an extension -- are you giving him $9MM per year x 6 years?  And thus writing Levi out of the Sabres' plans?  Because that's what it will cost and that's what it will mean.

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

OK, but IRL, are you trading JJP or Kulich or Savoie or Benson for Gibson, Hart or 1 year of Helle?

I don't see how we'd get 1 season of Hart, he's a RFA after this season.

[Doohickie]

10 minutes ago, tom webster said:

Logic says that if he’s in till the end that he’s not satisfied with the status quo, he’s just unable to do anything about it.

That's one way to look at it. The other is to realize he's always looking to improve (as any competent GM should) but he won't make a trade for the sake doing something. He's exercising discipline, setting parameters that he sticks to. If it's outside those parameters he does not go forward. I'd rather see that than waiving draft capital around like a pirate in a brothel.

[Bangarang]

Levi is our best goalie and it’s not even close to me. A small part of me is worried about giving him too much to handle too soon. Most of me though would rather see us live and die with Levi in net than UPL. Others are higher on UPL than me but I just see a mediocre NHL goalie. 

Edited July 3, 2023 by Bangarang

[The Jokeman]

Just now, Bangarang said:

Levi is our best goalie and it’s not even close to me. A small part of me is worried about giving him too much to handle too soon. Most of me would rather see us love and die with Levi in net than UPL. Others are higher on UPL than me but I just see a mediocre NHL goalie. 

Asking Levi to start 50 or more next season to me seems to be questionable, I mean he might excel but at what cost? Maybe it's old school thinking but most goalies take a year or two to develop before they're fully NHL ready. 

[Randall Flagg]

15 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

And are you trading Savoie or Kulich for 1 year of Helle, or is that only with an extension as part of the deal?

And if you are giving Helle an extension -- are you giving him $9MM per year x 6 years?  And thus writing Levi out of the Sabres' plans?  Because that's what it will cost and that's what it will mean.

I would trade them for 1 year of Helle and honestly would consider not extending him at all. 

We would look set to win at least one playoff series, barring catastrophe. We took 3 first round picks last year. I wouldn't even sweat attaching 2024's first to savoie or kulich for that. 

Fleshing out what to do after that depends on what Levi does in his first full season

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://theathletic.com/4661807/2023/07/03/sabres-free-agency/

Quote

Kevyn Adams didn’t hide his confidence in the Buffalo Sabres’ goalies this offseason. He practically gushed with pride every time he spoke about Devon Levi at the end of the season. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen had strong moments in his first full NHL season, too. Throw in Eric Comrie, who spent two stretches recovering from injuries last season, and Adams wasn’t as worried about Buffalo’s goalie situation as some outside the building.

Quote

“I really think we’re in a position of strength there, and I like what we have,” Adams said Sunday afternoon, just over 24 hours after NHL free agency opened.

That should put a fork in everyone's hope of a goaltender acquisition unless UPL and Comrie are just awful in camp. 

So what is our best-case scenario for our goaltending?  Levi dominates in camp, stays healthy all year and becomes a bonafide No. 1 despite only 7 games of NHL experience.  UPL wins the backup job and develops into a consistently average NHL goalie for the 25 games he plays.  (I imagine Comire and/or Tokarski play 8-10 games this season).

Worst case is that Levi doesn't prove ready to carry the team and none of the other 3 are up to the task either.  

KA is taking a huge gamble here.  If it pays off he'll look like a genius.  If it doesn't, it could knock the Sabres out of playoff contention for a 13th straight year.  

[Randall Flagg]

Adams is going to say that even if he's desperately trying to make a move behind the scenes 

 

That being said I believe that he's genuine here 

[nfreeman]

21 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

I don't see how we'd get 1 season of Hart, he's a RFA after this season.

I said 1 season of Helle, not 1 season of Hart.

 

9 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I would trade them for 1 year of Helle and honestly would consider not extending him at all. 

We would look set to win at least one playoff series, barring catastrophe. We took 3 first round picks last year. I wouldn't even sweat attaching 2024's first to savoie or kulich for that. 

Fleshing out what to do after that depends on what Levi does in his first full season

OK.  I don't agree at all, but I appreciate you staking out a specific position on this.

[tom webster]

23 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

That's one way to look at it. The other is to realize he's always looking to improve (as any competent GM should) but he won't make a trade for the sake doing something. He's exercising discipline, setting parameters that he sticks to. If it's outside those parameters he does not go forward. I'd rather see that than waiving draft capital around like a pirate in a brothel.

I don’t disagree with this but it’s completely different then saying he’s built this huge prospect pool and is content to see it through without making a “splash” move. Also , there is a vast expanse between making a significant move to improve and spending like a drunken sailor.

It is also alright to admit he’s made mistakes. He messed up the Ullmark negotiation. He would kill to get Linus or someone like him on a two year deal right now.

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

OK, but IRL, are you trading JJP or Kulich or Savoie or Benson for Gibson, Hart or 1 year of Helle?

Not Hart, because Briere wants 2 first-round picks for him, which is insane.  (See summer trade thread.)

[GASabresIUFAN]

19 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Adams is going to say that even if he's desperately trying to make a move behind the scenes 

 

That being said I believe that he's genuine here 

What else is he going to say now that he painted himself into this corner with the Levi or bust approach to goaltending?  I do have to say that Adams was completely honest when he said he was going to improve the defense.

[Doohickie]

6 minutes ago, tom webster said:

He messed up the Ullmark negotiation.

I really hope he took that as a learning opportunity.

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

I would trade them for 1 year of Helle and honestly would consider not extending him at all. 

We would look set to win at least one playoff series, barring catastrophe. We took 3 first round picks last year. I wouldn't even sweat attaching 2024's first to savoie or kulich for that. 

Fleshing out what to do after that depends on what Levi does in his first full season

I disagree with this approach, giving up essentially two #1’s for a one year rental is not ideal.  Adding one “special guy” for one year may not help the locker room of a young and up and coming team very much either.    However, it is probably better than doing nothing at all and going with Levi/UPL/Comrie.   A lot can go wrong with the later.   This core needs help to start winning consistently and the fan base deserves better than another season with no playoffs.  

[Thorny]

16 hours ago, dudacek said:

Here’s the thing about proven starting goalies: there aren’t very many of them.

You want to know how many goalies have played 130 games over the past 3 years, which is only an average of 43 starts?

Just 13

You aren’t getting Vasilevskiy, Saros, Shesterkin, Sorokin and Oettinger.

And most of you don’t want Hellebuyck, Markstrom, Gibson, Binnington or Bobrovsky given their contracts.

I’d say Kuemper and Jarry are both too expensive, and unavailable.

And then there’s Fleury who has a no-movement clause and is apparently done with moving.

The Venn diagram of goalies who are proven, available and affordable is very small.

But the Venn diagram of goalies better than UPL and Comrie is.. considerable 

Suppose that’s the other thread 

[Doohickie]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

3 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I would trade them for 1 year of Helle and honestly would consider not extending him at all.

I disagree with this approach, giving up essentially two #1’s for a one year rental is not ideal.  Adding one “special guy” for one year may not help the locker room of a young and up and coming team very much either.    However, it is probably better than doing nothing at all and going with Levi/UPL/Comrie.   A lot can go wrong with the later.   This core needs help to start winning consistently and the fan base deserves better than another season with no playoffs.  

This pretty much captures my internal conversation on the matter.