Goaltending? Defense? After the Whistle debate.

[TheAud]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Oh FFS. The kids needs a time out. If that's how he responds then he's trash anyway. Can you recall any player who makes goal-a-game blunders and bears no consequences? They want Dahlin to learn but all he's learning is he's not held accountable at all.

A 'time out'. Listen to yourself. He's a professional athlete, not a toddler.  Of course he bears the consequences of his play...his teammates and coaches and fans all see it, his statistics suffer, and he is acutely aware of it.  If you observe his demeanor it clearly weighs on him already. 

He's the most talented D-man on the team. Change his role a bit, at least for a time? Sure, that makes sense. Get him more help with a stronger partner if he is playing top pair minutes? Of course, if possible, this needs to happen anyway. But how is taking him entirely out of the line up and replacing him with Will Butcher going to help him or the team in any tangible way, shape, or form?

You are advocating punitive actions as a frustrated fan. It's understandable. But we can agree to disagree on this. 

[IKnowPhysics]

Collectively, the goalies are worse than the defense and it's not remotely close.  Look at the difference between 5v5 xGA/60 and actual GA/60 compared to league averages:

 

xGA/60 is based on actual shot metrics, so the defense is keeping us about average in what goals we should be allowing based on real shots and chances.  But we're disastrously bad based on what we're actually allowing as goals scored.  That is 100% on the goalies, full stop.

 

And it's not all of the goalies' individual fault.  Andersson played above replacement level (not great, but okay).  Tokarski played replacement level (not good).  Dell played sub-replacement level (very bad).  Subban should have been an improvement over Dell (and allow UPL to stay in Rochester).

 

Edited December 6, 2021 by IKnowPhysics

[dudacek]

I appreciate the posts that have genuinely tried to address the question posed by this thread.

Can we please keep the Dahlin-is-the-reincarnation-of-MA-Gragnani-and-must-be-burned-at-the-stake stuff to the clearly marked thread?

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Having them play with the lead instead of always from behind 

So like in the Florida game? 🙂

 

[Thorny]

So the goaltending is atrocious and the D is merely poor. 

Thread?

[IKnowPhysics]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So the goaltending is atrocious and the D is merely poor. 

Thread?

Thread.

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, Sakman said:

A 'time out'. Listen to yourself. He's a professional athlete, not a toddler.  Of course he bears the consequences of his play...his teammates and coaches and fans all see it, his statistics suffer, and he is acutely aware of it.  If you observe his demeanor it clearly weighs on him already. 

He's the most talented D-man on the team. Change his role a bit, at least for a time? Sure, that makes sense. Get him more help with a stronger partner if he is playing top pair minutes? Of course, if possible, this needs to happen anyway. But how is taking him entirely out of the line up and replacing him with Will Butcher going to help him or the team in any tangible way, shape, or form?

You are advocating punitive actions as a frustrated fan. It's understandable. But we can agree to disagree on this. 

What consequences does Dahlin suffer other than looking like a tool costing his teams games? Sure his demeanor says it weighs on him, yet the mistakes keep coming. To the point that other team know to target him when he has the puck.

[bob_sauve28]

15 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

So like in the Florida game? 🙂

 

Playing against the highest scoring team in the league with the worst goaltender in the league and you expected what from them? 

[PromoTheRobot]

30 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Collectively, the goalies are worse than the defense and it's not remotely close.  Look at the difference between 5v5 xGA/60 and actual GA/60 compared to league averages:

 

xGA/60 is based on actual shot metrics, so the defense is keeping us about average in what goals we should be allowing based on real shots and chances.  But we're disastrously bad based on what we're actually allowing as goals scored.  That is 100% on the goalies, full stop.

 

And it's not all of the goalies' individual fault.  Andersson played above replacement level (not great, but okay).  Tokarski played replacement level (not good).  Dell played sub-replacement level (very bad).  Subban should have been an improvement over Dell (and allow UPL to stay in Rochester).

 

Where is the stat that takes into account the breakaways off turnovers at the blue line?

[PerreaultForever]

2 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Playing against the highest scoring team in the league with the worst goaltender in the league and you expected what from them? 

Expected ? Nothing much, but when you're gifted a 3 goal lead you should be able to put up a better fight and maybe even an upset if you get a little good goaltending. They aren't unbeatable, Seattle took them down just before that and Seattle isn't very good.

[bob_sauve28]

3 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Expected ? Nothing much, but when you're gifted a 3 goal lead you should be able to put up a better fight and maybe even an upset if you get a little good goaltending. They aren't unbeatable, Seattle took them down just before that and Seattle isn't very good.

That was the only loss they had at home against 12 wins. I wasn't expecting them to win unless they scored more goals

[IKnowPhysics]

2 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Where is the stat that takes into account the breakaways off turnovers at the blue line?

In xGA/60.  But if you really want to be a snide wanker without putting your own work in to answer your own question, here you go.

What you're describing would be recorded more specifically as a "high danger" corsi or goal allowed.  Sabres are 12th (about league median) in HDCA/60 at 11.71, and 3rd worst at 1.76 HDGA/60.  The defense is limiting high danger chances to about what the league average is.  The goalies are letting those chances in at a bottom-of-the-league rate.

Again, it's the goalies.  Full stop.

[PromoTheRobot]

4 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

In xGA/60.  But if you really want to be a snide wanker without putting your own work in to answer your own question, here you go.

What you're describing would be recorded more specifically as a "high danger" corsi or goal allowed.  Sabres are 12th (about league median) in HDCA/60 at 11.71, and 3rd worst at 1.76 HDGA/60.  The defense is limiting high danger chances to about what the league average is.  The goalies are letting those chances in at a bottom-of-the-league rate.

Again, it's the goalies.  Full stop.

Sorry. Not buying it. I know what I see. Too many guys left open while we're chasing our tails in our own end. Swap goalies all you want. Nothing significantly changes until you fix the D, unless you're good with losing 4 or 5-2 instead of 6-2.

Edited December 6, 2021 by PromoTheRobot

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:

That was the only loss they had at home against 12 wins. I wasn't expecting them to win unless they scored more goals

I didn't expect them to win either, but we've drifted off the point. I believe your contention was that the D would do better if we got early leads, was that it? 

If so, my counter point would be that we usually do start games pretty good, but the D crumbles if/when the other team turns it up and applies more pressure. I think in part sometimes teams do still take us lightly , at least at the start, and teams that like to play open and loose, we can handle those, but when they press and drive the net and really attack us (or play physical) Dahlin and most of the rest of them panic and make mistakes and players lose assignments in general. 

Granato is doing some decent things, but this team has not learned how to play good team defense and I really think they need another full time assistant coach working with the D and one on one with Dahlin in particular. Not sure at this point what Girardi's role is.  

[IKnowPhysics]

2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Sorry. Not buying it. I know what I see. 

Then why ask the question in bad faith?

[Stads]

The Swiss cheese defense exposes the piss poor goaltending. That's the uncomplicated explanation

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Then why ask the question in bad faith?

Sorry I asked then. But I think this is one of those cases where analytics obscure what's actually happening in the ice. Goaltenders are not miracle workers. If you can't defend your end no goalie will help you win 

[GoPuckYourself]

On 12/5/2021 at 1:47 PM, bob_sauve28 said:

Dahlin’s play would improve remarkably if we had some type of decent goaltending. Right now he’s the guy we have to look to to get us back into games after bad goals. He has to hang onto puck longer, try and make perfect plays,, and in the NHL that gets you into trouble. 

 

I knew all along that the skaters and/or coach would get blamed for the losing, even though it’s the goaltending that is by far and away the reason. 

 

Put Dahlin and the rest of the defense in better situations and they will play better. But the goaltending is bad so let’s blame the skaters. Lol. This is such a cool team, but the fans, media and experts will say “Trade them all!” 

I totally disagree with this, Dahlin is putting himself and the goaltender in these situations every game, mostly multiple times per game. Tokarski at times has stood on his head. At what point do you start saying ok he's very talented but he's a huge liability not worthy of retaining. Instead if benching him for his poor play we keep feeding him more minutes.

[TheAud]

5 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

What consequences does Dahlin suffer other than looking like a tool costing his teams games? Sure his demeanor says it weighs on him, yet the mistakes keep coming. To the point that other team know to target him when he has the puck.

Granato: "Now Rasmus, I know I've been rolling you out there more than 23 minutes a game, over 3 minutes more than anyone else on the team, against the best the league has to offer and I know you lead the team in assists. But dammit, when you screw up you aren't feeling enough shame and taking the time to consider just how bad you are and how awful it makes us all feel when you look like an absolute tool out there...well it's just unacceptable. So I am demoting you to the press box to consider how to play better to stop looking like a tool."

Consequences like these you mean?

[Flashsabre]

6 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

What consequences does Dahlin suffer other than looking like a tool costing his teams games? Sure his demeanor says it weighs on him, yet the mistakes keep coming. To the point that other team know to target him when he has the puck.

“The other team know to target him when he has the puck”

I’m just speechless. 

“The defenders know to try to tackle the running back when he has the football.”

[PromoTheRobot]

3 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

“The other team know to target him when he has the puck”

I’m just speechless. 

“The defenders know to try to tackle the running back when he has the football.”

How do you explain it? Bad luck?

[Marvin]

9 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

How do you explain it? Bad luck?

Again, I am going to refer to Nik Lidstrom at 25 and Paul Coffey at 34 against New Jersey on a veteran Detroit team.  Calling them bad in their own zone is being generous.  Against good teams with good puck pressure and disciplined positioning, they were often a disaster waiting to happen in their own zone.  Remember Scott Niedermeyer splitting them for the Devils' game winning goal in game 2?  My friends who are Devils fans sure do.  That was far from the only mistake they made in that series.  Honestly, Dahlin at 21 is defencively about where Coffey was at 34 and is better now than Lidstrom was at 25.

But there should be consequences.  One way to teach better defencive awareness is to take him off the power play and emphasise penalty killing.  Punch Imlach and Joe Crozier made Perreault learn defencive responsibility by feeding him penalty killing time once Luce and Ramsay came off the ice when the result was already at hand.  I think he should be on the penalty kill with the most responsible defencive forwards -- probably Girgensons and Okposo.  I would also have GMKA emphasise getting quality veteran defencemen to be partners for Dahlin, Jokiharu, Bryson, and Samuelsson and stick to 4 pairs -- each Brian Campbell, Dmitri Kalinin, and Henrik Tallinder needs a Teppo Numminen, Jay McKee, and Toni Lydman respectively to help their growth.

[dudacek]

11 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

How do you explain it? Bad luck?

 

Former Norris trophy winner Brent Burns leads NHL defencemen in giveaways with 33.

Ekblad, Heiskanen and Chabot are other guys in the league's top 10.

You have to scroll to the bottom of page 2 to find Rasmus Dahlin. He's ranked 96th with 12, one more than reigning"best NHL defenceman" Victor Hedman.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?report=realtime&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20212022&seasonTo=20212022&gameType=2&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=giveaways&page=0&pageSize=50

But hey, you've noticed Dahlin's. So nail that punk's ass to the bench. Accountability.

Edited December 7, 2021 by dudacek

[Thorny]

Draft Expectations for Dahlin: Too Low? 

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Former Norris trophy winner Brent Burns leads NHL defencemen in giveaways with 33.

Ekblad, Heiskanen and Chabot are other guys in the league's top 10.

You have to scroll to the bottom of page 2 to find Rasmus Dahlin. He's ranked 96th with 12, one more than reigning"best NHL defenceman" Victor Hedman.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?report=realtime&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20212022&seasonTo=20212022&gameType=2&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=giveaways&page=0&pageSize=50

But hey, you've noticed Dahlin's. So nail that punk's ass to the bench. Accountability.

Dahlin's problem is less volume and more timing -- some of his have resulted in disaster, so they stick in the the head.  This is where the "eye test" is lying to us.

I would also bet that his zone exits and heads, shoulders, and torsos above most of the rest of his teammates.

This is the problem with not having above-average goaltending to compensate for defencive mistakes while simultaneously not have above-average defencive play to compensate for goaltending mistakes.  Because both are below average and the forwards are largely in the bottom half of the league means a lot of losses and lost opportunities for wins.