2021 NHL Draft Rankings

[LGR4GM]

Part II: The Great Dylan v Matty Debate

Matthew Beniers was born... no I am kidding, we won't start that far back. Beniers like Guenther played on a stacked team with multiple good players. This allowed Beniers to play 2nd line center but it is important to note he beat out other players to be the 2nd line center, mainly Johnson and Brisson. Beniers creates offense in really 2 main ways. The first is something I don't see Guenther do enough of and this controlled entries. Beniers carries or passes the puck into the o-zone a lot and with great success. This is great because as we learned under Krueger if you can't transition... well you simply can't do anything. Once in the zone I see Beniers as a chaos creator almost like a Seth Jarvis light. He can deke but mainly he uses his skating and cuts to move defenders around and find openings for teammates. Now the 2nd way he likes to create offense is probably his favorite thing. He will sit low in the zone and pass into the slot from below the goal line. This is good and bad. Good because it is very effective, you make the defenders turn and adjust when the puck goes low and they lose their assignments in the slot often. Bad because Beniers is often just sitting down there waiting for a Power or a K Johnson to get him the puck. This is the typical pp setup you see if you watch Michigan. 

Beniers shot is on par with Guenther IMPO. He doesn't use it enough and that is on him. His passing I would say is slightly below Guenther and I mean slightly. That said I think Beniers sees the ice a little better and that is probably a product of being a center and being I would say a little more aware in all 3 zones. He compares to well, no one really. There just are not a lot of NCAA draft eligibles each year but let's talk in terms of Quinn and Jarvis again. He is a poor mans Jarvis IMPO. Jarvis has a more aggressive slashing attack style that really forces opponents to react. Beniers has some of that but he also will move around the zone into open ice when he doesn't have the puck allowing others to work, this might just be a product like Gunether of being on a good team. When comparing Beniers to Quinn we see some of the same type of skating. Quinn is very tight in turns and uses his shoulders to manipulate defenders and we see that with Beniers 1v1 at times. Beniers lacks all the stick skills of Quinn and his shot is a level below Quinn and Jarvis. 

My takeaway was that Kent Johnson has potentially more potential (that's a fun sentence) but Beniers has a more translatable style than his linemate. The only thing we haven't discussed is Beniers motor and that is very much in the Seth Jarvis world of "you take puck, I eat your face". This serves him well especially on the back check and I would say his defensive game is a step above Guenther's (who also has a good defensive game just needs some rounding out with experience). I also think this serves him well in the offensive zone and with a bit more selfishness at times he could really bring his game to another level. He wins a lot of battles and he turns those wins into good plays. The WJC20 was a great showcase of Beniers being more selfish and in charge of his line that to me highlighted there's more there than we have seen so far. Further in the last 3 years he has the most p1/gp of any NCAA draft eligible player and is only 5th to D1 NCAA guys, Halloway, Newhook, Caufield, and Zegras. That's pretty good. 

 

The point is Guenther does some things really well. Beniers does some things really well. Neither is above Seth Jarvis but I think both emulate different parts of his game. Guenther with his scoring and Beniers with his skating and motor. I think Beniers creates more of his own chaos and chances and I think Guenther can but often is getting in those soft spots and capitalizing. The interesting thing looking back at the 2020 draft is just how absurd it is. We didn't even talk about Rossi, Byfield, or Lafrienere. Perfetti could also be in that mix as he reminds me in some ways of Guenther's more passive style at times. I don't think either player right now in May is a bad pick but I prefer the way Beniers attacks the game to the way Guenther does. Again I see more Jarvis in Beniers than I do in Guenther. Keep in mind that we have about half the tape on either guy that we should so this draft is a cluster regardless. 

Edited May 18, 2021 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Sean Couturier

Basically right now we are talking about a 70pt 2-way center or a potential 85pt (maybe 90) winger with what I would call okay 2way game. 

It comes down to what is more likely that Beniers is a 70pt 2-way center or that Guenther hits that 90 point winger level... personally I think Beniers gets that 70pt level or within 5pts of it and I think Guenther might be more of a Vanek in the end a 30g 35a winger with a 40g season here or there. Basically I trust the floor on Beniers (50pt 2way center) more than the ceiling on Guenther (his floor is a 25g 25a winger).  There is also a slim shot that Beniers with his work ethic and constant improvement jumps up a notch to that 80pt level but that might be hoping for too much. 

Basically I think realistic expectations are 60pt C versus 65pt W (as a middle ground for what they could achieve granted neither simply just flames out).

[#freejame]

16 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Basically right now we are talking about a 70pt 2-way center or a potential 85pt (maybe 90) winger with what I would call okay 2way game. 

It comes down to what is more likely that Beniers is a 70pt 2-way center or that Guenther hits that 90 point winger level... personally I think Beniers gets that 70pt level or within 5pts of it and I think Guenther might be more of a Vanek in the end a 30g 35a winger with a 40g season here or there. Basically I trust the floor on Beniers (50pt 2way center) more than the ceiling on Guenther (his floor is a 25g 25a winger).  There is also a slim shot that Beniers with his work ethic and constant improvement jumps up a notch to that 80pt level but that might be hoping for too much. 

Basically I think realistic expectations are 60pt C versus 65pt W (as a middle ground for what they could achieve granted neither simply just flames out).

90 point wingers are sexy but I’ll take 70 points up the middle if the defense is there all day. 

[Buffalonill]

22 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Basically right now we are talking about a 70pt 2-way center or a potential 85pt (maybe 90) winger with what I would call okay 2way game. 

It comes down to what is more likely that Beniers is a 70pt 2-way center or that Guenther hits that 90 point winger level... personally I think Beniers gets that 70pt level or within 5pts of it and I think Guenther might be more of a Vanek in the end a 30g 35a winger with a 40g season here or there. Basically I trust the floor on Beniers (50pt 2way center) more than the ceiling on Guenther (his floor is a 25g 25a winger).  There is also a slim shot that Beniers with his work ethic and constant improvement jumps up a notch to that 80pt level but that might be hoping for too much. 

Basically I think realistic expectations are 60pt C versus 65pt W (as a middle ground for what they could achieve granted neither simply just flames out).

I dont see anyway matthew beniers gets close to 70 points the highest  i see is 50 points 

6 minutes ago, #freejame said:

90 point wingers are sexy but I’ll take 70 points up the middle if the defense is there all day. 

But the winger has just as strong 2 way game 

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

I dont see anyway matthew beniers gets close to 70 points the highest  i see is 50 points 

But the winger has just as strong 2 way game 

I see no way that Guenther actually hits 90 unless he's playing with a great center. 

Guenther's 2-way game is a step below Beniers and that's nothing to be ashamed about. 

[Buffalonill]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

I see no way that Guenther actually hits 90 unless he's playing with a great center. 

Guenther's 2-way game is a step below Beniers and that's nothing to be ashamed about. 

I see the max with guenther 75-80 pts 

If he was playing with a healthy jack eichel  easily 100pts if jack stayed for year 3 

[fiftyone]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

When I read your question, my mind immediately jumped to Hischier.

Me too. The Couturier comp also seems like it may fit, though I think he's a good bit bigger. Is a poor-mans Patrice Bergeron too high praise? ROR?

Hischier seems like the one though. Offensive side doesn't light the world on fire (especially as a number 1 OA) but was named captain already and is the leader of his team. If we drafted Hischier this year, would that be disappointing? I'm not sure.  

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

I see the max with guenther 75-80 pts 

If he was playing with a healthy jack eichel  easily 100pts if jack stayed for year 3 

You could convince me of that. 

[Buffalonill]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

You could convince me of that. 

Its Going to suck when people start complaining we need a "elite center"  etc etc .. 

 

[Flashsabre]

1 minute ago, fiftyone said:

Me too. The Couturier comp also seems like it may fit, though I think he's a good bit bigger. Is a poor-mans Patrice Bergeron too high praise? ROR?

Hischier seems like the one though. Offensive side doesn't light the world on fire (especially as a number 1 OA) but was named captain already and is the leader of his team. If we drafted Hischier this year, would that be disappointing? I'm not sure.  

You can only draft who is available. The Devils can’t draft Hischier and be mad they didn’t get McDavid because McDavid wasn’t available and Hischier was the best talent there.

 

This is the main reason I don’t care if the Sabres get the 1OA pick this year, rather they didn’t.  If they really want Beniers but take him 1OA then it is a lot of negative BS about his ability as a 1OA. But if they take him 30A then that same narrative doesn’t apply and he is free to play and develop his own game. Still a high standard at 3 OA but not the same as 1OA. Power seems to be the one everyone is focusing on at 1OA but will he be the best player from the draft? I have my doubts.

[fiftyone]

3 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

You can only draft who is available. The Devils can’t draft Hischier and be mad they didn’t get McDavid because McDavid wasn’t available and Hischier was the best talent there.

 

This is the main reason I don’t care if the Sabres get the 1OA pick this year, rather they didn’t.  If they really want Beniers but take him 1OA then it is a lot of negative BS about his ability as a 1OA. But if they take him 30A then that same narrative doesn’t apply and he is free to play and develop his own game. Still a high standard at 3 OA but not the same as 1OA. Power seems to be the one everyone is focusing on at 1OA but will he be the best player from the draft? I have my doubts.

Yeah, I get that's the way it works. That can be true and it can still be a "down" year for the top end of the draft. 

My question was really who the best comp for Beniers was/is. Interesting either way.

[Buffalonill]

Nolan patrick  Would have had an excellent career in the NHL if not for  Concussions .

nico hischier Rised up from a second round pick to 1st overall in 1 crazy year and what put him over the top was world jrs ,u20

[#freejame]

3 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Nolan patrick  Would have had an excellent career in the NHL if not for  Concussions .

nico hischier Rised up from a second round pick to 1st overall in 1 crazy year and what put him over the top was world jrs ,u20

Pretty sure his issue is migraines and not concussions. 

[Buffalonill]

17 minutes ago, #freejame said:

Pretty sure his issue is migraines and not concussions. 

Yeah due to concussions

[#freejame]

2 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Yeah due to concussions

No it isn’t. It runs in his family and both he and the Flyers have said it isn’t hockey related. 

[Buffalonill]

Just now, #freejame said:

No it isn’t. It runs in his family and both he and the Flyers have said it isn’t hockey related. 

Anways his  Career was cut too short

[#freejame]

31 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Anways his  Career was cut too short

I mean, he’s back at it now. It was thrown off track, but plenty of professional athletes have come back from migraine disorders. Treatment tends to be full of a lot of misses before a hit is finally found, but it is possible to manage. 
 

source: migraine disorder runs in my family. (Thankfully I’ve only ever had around ten; my sister gets them daily)

[Buffalonill]

16 minutes ago, #freejame said:

I mean, he’s back at it now. It was thrown off track, but plenty of professional athletes have come back from migraine disorders. Treatment tends to be full of a lot of misses before a hit is finally found, but it is possible to manage. 
 

source: migraine disorder runs in my family. (Thankfully I’ve only ever had around ten; my sister gets them daily)

I feel his development was lost due to what you  Described he wont be the player that was once projected first overall 

Sucks for him 

[Flashsabre]

40 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

I feel his development was lost due to what you  Described he wont be the player that was once projected first overall 

Sucks for him 

He needs to get away from the Flyers. He will always be a waste of a 2nd OA pick there.  He needs a fresh start where he can just be another face in the lineup.  I think he can still have a decent career but yeah his trajectory was altered with the migraines.

[LGR4GM]

Elite Prospect drops its last rankings before they release their draft guide.

Quote

There are players we feel strongly about one way or the other, but it's hard to imagine anyone in this year's top-five even putting much of a dent in last year's top-10, just for perspective.

 

[Thorny]

^That’s a pretty significant and telling statement at the end there, I didn’t think the gap was perceived to be that big. 

[LGR4GM]

Mason McTavish is in their top 5, which is very interesting but I think he's a riser this year and will certainly go top 10. 

He played in Switzerland this past season as he has dual citizenship... I think. He was born in Switzerland but is a Canadian. He has a Swiss player license because he was born there at the very least. 

Here's some highlights: OHL highlights are from last year so keep that in mind.

 

 

[SwampD]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

^That’s a pretty significant and telling statement at the end there, I didn’t think the gap was perceived to be that big. 

Thereby guaranteeing that there will be several NHL studs in this draft.

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

^That’s a pretty significant and telling statement at the end there, I didn’t think the gap was perceived to be that big. 

2020 and 2019 were crazy drafts. 2019 was deep as all hell. 2020 had a really good top. I think part of that comment also reflects that there is a lot of uncertainty in this draft so they don't want to say "Beniers would have gotten drafted in the top 10 last year as well." I think that the back half of the top 10 you could have seen some of these guys in but again, Covid has made this entire class very uncertain. For example is Sanderson better than this years top defenders... maybe. Drysdale probably is because of his offense. Is Holtz better than the forwards... meh, I mean Eklund pretty much outplayed him on his own team so you can make the argument there. Is Beniers better than Perfetti, probably not but his 2-way game is. I think Elite is right though and this class is just a below what we saw last year. 

Is Guenther better than Quinn? No, I think Quinn brings more tools (better shot) but one could make an argument. 

Edited May 21, 2021 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Thereby guaranteeing that there will be several NHL studs in this draft.

There's several studs in every draft. Even the god awful 2012 draft has a few good players.