So #8

[Thorny]

I think everyone is actually pretty much in agreement. One side is talking more about the theory, the true application of BPA, which is pretty simple, and Liger is just pointing out that there is no universal BPA determination, that it varies by team. Which is true - think everyone is in agreement on that though. 

You take the player that your squad has subjectively determined to project as the best, most successful NHLer. Need can factor in when projection difference is not substantial.

Edited August 25, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

I don't think we take Sanderson because his name, to quote myself from the Sabres Picking 8th thread, is:

 

Yes, and now that we have all those JBotted defensemen within the pipeline and all will need development time (and ice time). If Sanderson isn't well above a forward in the draft board rankings, I think the forward has the advantage. We've got near-empty pipelines of forwards.

I see this all the time, but is is actually true?

• We have a 19-year-old 8th overall pick centre who played on the first line for a gold medal junior team and is ranked among the top prospects outside the NHL and was among the highest points per game in the WHL.
• We have a 21-year-old 8th overall pick centre who put up 23 points in 27 games as an AHL rookie after a slow start, and just 2 years ago was ranked among the top prospects outside the NHL
• We have a 22-year-old 6'6" 225-pound 26th-overall pick RW who scored 14 goals and 25 points over 27 games in the minors before a shoulder injury halted his progress.
• We have a 22-year-old 33rd-overall pick centre who plays a two-way game, who slipped back a step after looking to be on the verge after putting up close to a point per game in the 2nd half of his AHL rookie season the previous year.
• And we have a 22-year-old undrafted two-way centre who was among just a half-dozen players in the Finnish Elite league to average nearly a point a game.

It's like people minimize how many teams don't have a Dylan, reject the reality that Tage and Casey are still prospects in the pipeline, and forget that Arttu and Rasmus3 exist. It's not like we're flush with young forwards, but 5 guys not on the team with a reasonable chance of making the team is OK relative to the league, no?

Edited August 25, 2020 by dudacek

[Curt]

23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I see this all the time, but is is actually true?

• We have a 19-year-old 8th overall pick centre who played on the first line for a gold medal junior team and is ranked among the top prospects outside the NHL and was among the highest points per game in the WHL.
• We have a 21-year-old 8th overall pick centre who put up 23 points in 27 games as an AHL rookie after a slow start, and just 2 years ago was ranked among the top prospects outside the NHL
• We have a 22-year-old 6'6" 225-pound 26th-overall pick RW who scored 14 goals and 25 points over 27 games in the minors before a shoulder injury halted his progress.
• We have a 22-year-old 33rd-overall pick centre who plays a two-way game, who slipped back a step after looking to be on the verge after putting up close to a point per game in the 2nd half of his AHL rookie season the previous year.
• And we have a 22-year-old undrafted two-way centre who was among just a half-dozen players in the Finnish Elite league to average nearly a point a game.

It's like people minimize how many teams don't have a Dylan, reject the reality that Tage and Casey are still prospects in the pipeline, and forget that Arttu and Rasmus3 exist. It's not like we're flush with young forwards, but 5 guys not on the team with a reasonable chance of making the team is OK relative to the league, no?

Good points.  I think it’s more that people (Sabres fans) have become very pessimistic that any of those players, apart from Cozens has a future as a top-6 player.

[Eleven]

42 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I see this all the time, but is is actually true?

• We have a 19-year-old 8th overall pick centre who played on the first line for a gold medal junior team and is ranked among the top prospects outside the NHL and was among the highest points per game in the WHL.
• We have a 21-year-old 8th overall pick centre who put up 23 points in 27 games as an AHL rookie after a slow start, and just 2 years ago was ranked among the top prospects outside the NHL
• We have a 22-year-old 6'6" 225-pound 26th-overall pick RW who scored 14 goals and 25 points over 27 games in the minors before a shoulder injury halted his progress.
• We have a 22-year-old 33rd-overall pick centre who plays a two-way game, who slipped back a step after looking to be on the verge after putting up close to a point per game in the 2nd half of his AHL rookie season the previous year.
• And we have a 22-year-old undrafted two-way centre who was among just a half-dozen players in the Finnish Elite league to average nearly a point a game.

It's like people minimize how many teams don't have a Dylan, reject the reality that Tage and Casey are still prospects in the pipeline, and forget that Arttu and Rasmus3 exist. It's not like we're flush with young forwards, but 5 guys not on the team with a reasonable chance of making the team is OK relative to the league, no?

Tage sucks and Mittlestadt doesn't seem to care, and neither are ready for the NHL right now (and probably never will be).  Sorry to be so plain about it.

Trade the pick for a 2C.

Edited August 25, 2020 by Eleven

[Thorny]

57 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I see this all the time, but is is actually true?

• We have a 19-year-old 8th overall pick who played on the first line for a gold medal junior team and is ranked among the top prospects outside the NHL and was among the highest points per game.
• We have a 21-year-old 8th overall pick who put up 23 points in 27 games as an AHL rookie after a slow start, and just 2 years ago was ranked among the top prospects outside the NHL
• We have a 22-year-old 6'6" 225-pound 26th-overall pick who scored 14 goals and 25 points over 27 games in the minors before a shoulder injury halted his progress.
• We have a 22-year-old 33rd-overall pick who plays a two-way game, who slipped back a step after looking to be on the verge after putting up close to a point per game in the 2nd half of his AHL rookie season the previous year.
• And we have a 22-year-old undrafted two-way centre who was among just a half-dozen players in the Finnish Elite league to average nearly a point a game.

It's like people minimize how many teams don't have a Dylan, reject the reality that Tage and Casey are still prospects, and forget that Arttu and Rasmus3 exist. It's not like we're flush with young forwards, but 5 guys with a reasonable chance of making the team is OK, no?

Not really. Other teams are much deeper. Some don't have a Cozens, but after Cozens, what we do have, the players you laid out, don't compare favourably to the forward prospect depth of most other teams. 

Most of the prospect guys I trust have the Sabres in the lower teens, and Cozens is pulling the whole carriage. 

Things change if Mittelstadt starts tracking better but yes, other teams have more forwards doing not insignificantly better than Mittelstadt and Thompson and Asplund and Ruotsalainen. It's just objectively not a deep pool. 

35 minutes ago, Curt said:

Good points.  I think it’s more that people (Sabres fans) have become very pessimistic that any of those players, apart from Cozens has a future as a top-6 player.

This isn't true. The non-team affiliated prospects watchers pretty generally have the Sabres on the lower end. 

If we actually have a better pool than people say, that'll be an opinion from someone more likely with a close affiliation to our team. 

[Thorny]

If the perceptions League wide of Casey, Thompson, Asplund, whoever are wrong, then ya maybe our pool is in good shape. It pretty much comes down to how you feel about those players. 

If you think we get 5 NHL forwards out of the 5 players @dudacek mentioned, then ya, we've got a pretty good pool. 

If we've got 4 NHL players in that pool, we're probably mid pack. Could stand to add, definitely. 

If we've got 3 or less, it's a weak pool. Cozens is pegged, Casey I think has it in him to become a contributing sheltered offensive winger. 

2 of Asplund, Thompson, and Ruotsalainen need to establish as mainstay NHLers and I'd say the pool is reasonable. But I don't see that as a solid bet. 

Edited August 25, 2020 by Thorny

[Curt]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

This isn't true. The non-team affiliated prospects watchers pretty generally have the Sabres on the lower end. 

If we actually have a better pool than people say, that'll be an opinion from someone more likely with a close affiliation to our team. 

What’s not true?  I didn’t say that fans are wrong.  Looks like fans and unaffiliated sources are on the same page.

My point was that, ok, perhaps the forward prospect depth is not terrible, there are guys who will likely be NHL players, but there is a lack of prospects who project as top 6  forwards.  I didn’t mean to imply that the prospect pool is actually in good shape, though looking back, I see how it could read that way.

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, Curt said:

What’s not true?  I didn’t say that fans are wrong.  Looks like fans and unaffiliated sources are on the same page.

My point was that, ok, perhaps the forward prospect depth is not terrible, there are guys who will likely be NHL players, but there is a lack of prospects who project as top 6  forwards.  I didn’t mean to imply that the prospect pool is actually in good shape, though looking back, I see how it could read that way.

Ya sorry. I read it that you were saying the pool was actually viewed quite a bit more favourably outside of Sabres fans, who had begun to underrate due to pessimism. 

The idea fans are pessimistic about it is definitely true. I just think it's been warranted and, in this case, being down on the current pool seems to be in line with non-Sabres sources right now. 

But they've been wrong before. 

- - - 

Lack of higher end projecting forwards, yes, but also a lack of depth. 

Edited August 25, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorny]

But like, we have good young forwards on the roster. A few of them. And another reasonably aged winger. All this talk of prospect pool depth - I'm not concerned about it. 

I keep going back to it but, if we can complete the top 6 with real players this offseason, the top 6 is going to be good, and young - and we do have Cozens. We have time, future drafts, to restock. 

It will easier to restock from a place of strength, ironically with lower picks, than from a place of weakness, with higher picks.  

[Andrew Amerk]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I see this all the time, but is is actually true?

• We have a 19-year-old 8th overall pick centre who played on the first line for a gold medal junior team and is ranked among the top prospects outside the NHL and was among the highest points per game in the WHL.
• We have a 21-year-old 8th overall pick centre who put up 23 points in 27 games as an AHL rookie after a slow start, and just 2 years ago was ranked among the top prospects outside the NHL
• We have a 22-year-old 6'6" 225-pound 26th-overall pick RW who scored 14 goals and 25 points over 27 games in the minors before a shoulder injury halted his progress.
• We have a 22-year-old 33rd-overall pick centre who plays a two-way game, who slipped back a step after looking to be on the verge after putting up close to a point per game in the 2nd half of his AHL rookie season the previous year.
• And we have a 22-year-old undrafted two-way centre who was among just a half-dozen players in the Finnish Elite league to average nearly a point a game.

It's like people minimize how many teams don't have a Dylan, reject the reality that Tage and Casey are still prospects in the pipeline, and forget that Arttu and Rasmus3 exist. It's not like we're flush with young forwards, but 5 guys not on the team with a reasonable chance of making the team is OK relative to the league, no?

You’re not allowed on Team Stormcloud. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

Pominville sucks and Roy doesn't seem to care, and neither are ready for the NHL right now (and probably never will be).  Sorry to be so plain about it.

Sabrespace, summer 2003.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Not really. Other teams are much deeper. Some don't have a Cozens, but after Cozens, what we do have, the players you laid out, don't compare favourably to the forward prospect depth of most other teams.

A lot of the prospect rankers I see don't count Mittelstadt and Tage because of the number of NHL games they've played. Just like a lot of Sabres fans.

It's a legitimate point of view, but it's one I don't share because a) they aren't on our team, b) they are in our system and c) they are still young enough to improve. As far as I am concerned, they are still in our pipeline.

[Eleven]

32 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sabrespace, summer 2003.

There was no Sabrespace in 2003 and I don't know that we would have said it if there were Sabrespace in 2003.  We fans were coming off of a semifinals, a finals, a first-round exit, and a second-round exit that shouldn't have happened but for a (Warrener?) screwup.

We also were watching a team with a real coach.  Maybe we are now, I don't know, but we sure weren't for seven of the last eight years.

Life wasn't so bad in 2003.  Except there was no Sabrespace.

25 minutes ago, dudacek said:

A lot of the prospect rankers I see don't count Mittelstadt and Tage because of the number of NHL games they've played. Just like a lot of Sabres fans.

It's a legitimate point of view, but it's one I don't share because a) they aren't on our team, b) they are in our system and c) they are still young enough to improve. As far as I am concerned, they are still in our pipeline.

They suck.  If they turn out to not suck, it's because they read this and decided to get better.

Edited August 25, 2020 by Eleven

[dudacek]

40 minutes ago, Eleven said:

.

They suck.  If they turn out to not suck, it's because they read this and decided to get better.

Go to sleep, man. You’re delirious.

[Eleven]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Go to sleep, man. You’re delirious.

I can't.

[SwampD]

32 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I can't.

2003 sucked. There were no playoffs then, or the year before.

[Wyldnwoody44]

2 hours ago, Eleven said:

I can't.

Dude! No sleep, you don't wanna stress your body out too much

[LGR4GM]

12 hours ago, dudacek said:

I see this all the time, but is is actually true?

• We have a 19-year-old 8th overall pick centre who played on the first line for a gold medal junior team and is ranked among the top prospects outside the NHL and was among the highest points per game in the WHL.
• We have a 21-year-old 8th overall pick centre who put up 23 points in 27 games as an AHL rookie after a slow start, and just 2 years ago was ranked among the top prospects outside the NHL
• We have a 22-year-old 6'6" 225-pound 26th-overall pick RW who scored 14 goals and 25 points over 27 games in the minors before a shoulder injury halted his progress.
• We have a 22-year-old 33rd-overall pick centre who plays a two-way game, who slipped back a step after looking to be on the verge after putting up close to a point per game in the 2nd half of his AHL rookie season the previous year.
• And we have a 22-year-old undrafted two-way centre who was among just a half-dozen players in the Finnish Elite league to average nearly a point a game.

It's like people minimize how many teams don't have a Dylan, reject the reality that Tage and Casey are still prospects in the pipeline, and forget that Arttu and Rasmus3 exist. It's not like we're flush with young forwards, but 5 guys not on the team with a reasonable chance of making the team is OK relative to the league, no?

It is true. 

Tage might be an NHL player

Mitts so far is doubtful to be an NHL player

Asplund is bottom pairing guy from what we have seen

Arrtu is an unknown but we can hope

Cozens is the best of the bunch

 

Now compare that to the defense. We have at least 3 LHD guys with NHL shots and 2 RHD. So we are comparing 5 defenders to 5 forwards which seems reasonable until we stop to consider there are 6 defense slots and 12 forward slots. The pipeline should have at least 3 more forwards that are top 6 potential and it simply doesn't. 

[LGR4GM]

Let's talk about LA.

They have Kupari, Fagemo, Turcotte, Kaliyev, Thomas, Vilardi. That's 6 guys all younger than Tage and Mitts who are all on par or better than Tage and Mitts. Cozens fits in there well but again, this is what it should look like. Instead we are talking about 23 year olds and hoping they finally figure it out. 

Further the Kings will add either Stutzle or Byfield to that list PLUS they have 3 2nd round picks in this draft. 

They are building depth and we simply have not in the last 5 years. We have just snailed along leaving a disgusting slime trail of failure in our wake. 

[dudacek]

37 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Let's talk about LA.

They have Kupari, Fagemo, Turcotte, Kaliyev, Thomas, Vilardi. That's 6 guys all younger than Tage and Mitts who are all on par or better than Tage and Mitts. Cozens fits in there well but again, this is what it should look like. Instead we are talking about 23 year olds and hoping they finally figure it out. 

Further the Kings will add either Stutzle or Byfield to that list PLUS they have 3 2nd round picks in this draft. 

They are building depth and we simply have not in the last 5 years. We have just snailed along leaving a disgusting slime trail of failure in our wake. 

The Kings have the best group of forward prospects in the league; from what I've seen, it's not particularly close.

The statement being debated is whether our forward pipeline is "near empty".

Compare our top five to the teams who are just ahead of us in the NHL pecking order, the eight who lost in the qualifying round:

• Minnesota: Kaprizov, Boldy, Khovanov, Firstov, Hentges
• Nashville: Tolvanen, Tomasino, Trenin, Afanasyev, Pitlick
• Winnipeg: Vesalainen, Harkins, Smith, Spacek, Blaisdell
• Edmonton: Lavoie, Benson, McLeod, Rasinen, Maksimov
• Pittsburgh; Poulin, Legare, Hallinder, O'Connor, Puustinen
• NY Rangers: Kravtsov, Barron, Pajuniemi, Henriksson, Aaltonen
• Toronto: Robertson, Bracco, Abramov, Der-Arguchintsev
• Florida: Denisenko, Tippett, Heponiemi, Noel, Hutsko
• Buffalo: Cozens, Mittelstadt, Thompson, Asplund, Ruotsalainen

Can we really say we are significantly behind that pack? Cozens certainly challenges for the top player of the overall group. Mittelstadt and Thompson stack up well against the other 2s and 3s. Most of us have never heard of any of the 4s and 5s.

I think our forward group needs improvement. But the idea that it is a gaping black hole is overrated once you start looking around. It really comes down to whether or not you've written off Tage and Casey.

Edited August 25, 2020 by dudacek

[JohnC]

29 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Let's talk about LA.

They have Kupari, Fagemo, Turcotte, Kaliyev, Thomas, Vilardi. That's 6 guys all younger than Tage and Mitts who are all on par or better than Tage and Mitts. Cozens fits in there well but again, this is what it should look like. Instead we are talking about 23 year olds and hoping they finally figure it out. 

Further the Kings will add either Stutzle or Byfield to that list PLUS they have 3 2nd round picks in this draft. 

They are building depth and we simply have not in the last 5 years. We have just snailed along leaving a disgusting slime trail of failure in our wake. 

Your comparison shows how well LA is transitioning its team with their young players. However, in the comparison you didn't fully show that the Sabres have also been working in youg players such as Dahlin, Joki, Olofsson, (maybe) Kahun, Ullmark and possibly Tage (as you noted) and Cozens (as you noted). My point is that when you consider that the Sabres are giving a lot of young players substantial playing time then the imbalance isn't so stark.  

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Your comparison shows how well LA is transitioning its team with their young players. However, in the comparison you didn't fully show that the Sabres have also been working in young players such as Dahlin, Joki, Olofsson, (maybe) Kahun, Ullmark and possibly Tage (as you noted) and Cozens (as you noted). My point is that when you consider that the Sabres are giving a lot of young players substantial playing time then the imbalance isn't so stark.  

I am going to pause you right here at the bold. 

Olofsson is 25

Kahun is 25

Ullmark is 27

Tage will be 23 before the season resumes. 

The Sabres are not giving a lot of "young players" playing time. They are giving a lot of players in the middle playing time. There's lots of 24-28 year olds in the NHL. The LA pieces I mentioned are all under the age of 22. It should tell us all something if the only forward we can name under 23 that we really think has a legit top 6 shot is Cozens. We can still consider Mitts I suppose but he really has to show something this season. 

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The Kings have the best group of forward prospects in the league; from what I've seen, it's not particularly close.

The statement being debated is whether our forward pipeline is "near empty".

Compare our top five to the teams who are just ahead of us in the NHL pecking order, the eight who lost in the qualifying round:

• Minnesota: Kaprizov, Boldy, Khovanov, Firstov, Hentges
• Nashville: Tolvanen, Tomasino, Trenin, Afanasyev, Pitlick
• Winnipeg: Vesalainen, Harkins, Smith, Spacek, Blaisdell
• Edmonton: Lavoie, Benson, McLeod, Rasinen, Maksimov
• Pittsburgh; Poulin, Legare, Hallinder, O'Connor, Puustinen
• NY Rangers: Kravtsov, Barron, Pajuniemi, Henriksson, Aaltonen
• Toronto: Robertson, Bracco, Abramov, Der-Arguchintsev
• Florida: Denisenko, Tippett, Heponiemi, Noel, Hutsko
• Buffalo: Cozens, Mittelstadt, Thompson, Asplund, Ruotsalainen

Can we really say we are significantly behind that pack? Cozens certainly challenges for the top player of the overall group. Mittelstadt and Thompson stack up well against the other 2s and 3s. Most of us have never heard of any of the 4s and 5s.

I think our forward group needs improvement. But the idea that it is a gaping black hole is overrated once you start looking around. It really comes down to whether or not you've written off Tage and Casey.

Yes. Several of the teams you list here are Playoff teams. Several others are just about to start a rebuild so I am not surprised they don't have forward depth. The only outlier I see is maybe Winnipeg but for sure Florida which is a terribly run team. We have been rebuilding since 2014 and our top 6 only has 3 players we drafted in it and 1 if a lucky 7th rounder. 

[JohnC]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I am going to pause you right here at the bold. 

Olofsson is 25

Kahun is 25

Ullmark is 27

Tage will be 23 before the season resumes. 

The Sabres are not giving a lot of "young players" playing time. They are giving a lot of players in the middle playing time. There's lots of 24-28 year olds in the NHL. The LA pieces I mentioned are all under the age of 22. It should tell us all something if the only forward we can name under 23 that we really think has a legit top 6 shot is Cozens. We can still consider Mitts I suppose but he really has to show something this season. 

The Sabre players that you listed with their ages indicates that they are at a young enough age to play for an extended period of time. They may be older than the players on LA but that doesn't alter the fact that the Buffalo players will be playing as established player for the foreseeable future. 

Edited August 25, 2020 by JohnC

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The Sabre players that you listed with their ages indicates that they are at a young enough age to play for an extended period of time. They may be older than the players on LA but that doesn't alter the fact that the Buffalo players will be playing as established player for the foreseeable future. 

It takes 2-4 years to draft and develop a forward. Let's give all those players you list 4 more years of prime production. What replaces them? 

Also you are twisting the original argument/point. The argument was not the Sabres have young players on the team, it was they don't have good forwards in their pipeline. You countered that with saying the Sabres have young players being worked in but again, who replaces them? Also they aren't that young. What if Olofsson goes and drops a 30goal season and wants a lot of money and you have to trade him because you can't afford him, what replaces him? What if Kahun or Olofsson plateau and don't actually fill out those roles, who is developing to replace them?

Further we are still unsure if Kahun is a top 6 forward. Olofsson is probably a 2nd line winger. Again though, what backfill do you have in case of injury, trade, decrease in productivity?

Edited August 25, 2020 by LGR4GM