So #8

[LGR4GM]

A prospect isn't an NHL player IMPO. They are someone yet to break that threshold. 

Casey and Mitts I would include as prospects because Mitts got demoted back to a prospect and Tage never really graduated. Dahlin is not a prospect. 

[LGR4GM]

NHL Prospect implies someone has the ability to be a NHL player in a future place and time, Dahlin already is so he should be excluded. 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

A prospect isn't an NHL player IMPO. They are someone yet to break that threshold. 

His rationale:

..this year’s version will have full evaluations with tool grades of all players in an organization who are 22 years old or younger as of Sept. 15, 2020, regardless of how many NHL games they’ve played, to go along with the rest of the players in the pipeline.

It will not include skaters older than 22 as of Sept. 15, 2020, who have played 25 NHL games in a season or 50 career games; goalies with 10 games in a season or 25 in a career; nor any player age 26 or older as of Sept. 15, 2020.

Thus, all players from the 2016 to 2019 NHL drafts who were first-year eligible at their draft are incorporated into this year’s organizational rankings.

There were pros and cons to this decision. The pros were the ability to incorporate a lot of great young players who were on the fringe of graduating based on my old definition, those who were barely regular NHLers or had been sent back to the minors but were cut out because they were “graduates.” The cons are the inevitable complaints when people see where Toronto is ranked, largely on the back of Auston Matthews. There is no perfect way to define the players for this purpose; ultimately someone is going to be upset by the way I set this up, but I try to make this feature better every year by getting closer to an ideal definition.

 

[LGR4GM]

I know what Pronman's rationale is. I disagree with it in this case. Prospect implies future player not current NHL star or rising star. 

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I know what Pronman's rationale is. I disagree with it in this case. Prospect implies future player not current NHL star or rising star. 

Yes. It's shifted the focus of his rankings.

It's basically now a ranking of "best young talent in the organization" as opposed to "best talent not already on the team"

[tom webster]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yes. It's shifted the focus of his rankings.

It's basically now a ranking of "best young talent in the organization" as opposed to "best talent not already on the team"

I agree with both of you but isn’t it a better indication of the future health of the organization as well as a better indicator of teams success acquiring talent? If the Sabre’s were better and didn’t pick Dahlin first overall they would presumably have another prospect in their system that wasn’t in nhl yet.

[DarthEbriate]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

A prospect isn't an NHL player IMPO. They are someone yet to break that threshold. 

Casey and Mitts I would include as prospects because Mitts got demoted back to a prospect and Tage never really graduated. Dahlin is not a prospect. 

Agreed here. A prospect can be a prospect, then make it, and then return to being a prospect (Mitts-style). You can also have the old prospect who one day finds himself 26 and all-but-forgotten but then gets the call-up and makes a career of it (Moulson-style). Age doesn't see prospects ("Too old! Too old to be a prospect.").

Our prospects pool is: Asplund, Cozens, Mitts, Tage, Pekar, Ruotsalainen, Davidsson, Huglen, Samuelsson, Bryson, Borgen, Laaksonen. Johnson. UPL, Johansson, and Portillo. And a handful of skaters still over in Europe. I'm not sure where this list stacks up League-wide.

Edited August 31, 2020 by DarthEbriate

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

A prospect isn't an NHL player IMPO. They are someone yet to break that threshold. 

Casey and Mitts I would include as prospects because Mitts got demoted back to a prospect and Tage never really graduated. Dahlin is not a prospect. 

Whoa, whoa, whoa, you're totally leaving Mittelstadt off this list. ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Yes, we know you meant to say Tage & Mitts.  ? )

[Eleven]

4 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Agreed here. A prospect can be a prospect, then make it, and then return to being a prospect (Mitts-style). You can also have the old prospect who one day finds himself 26 and all-but-forgotten but then gets the call-up and makes a career of it (Moulson-style). Age doesn't see prospects ("Too old! Too old to be a prospect.").

Our prospects pool is: Asplund, Cozens, Mitts, Tage, Pekar, Ruotsalainen, Davidsson, Huglen, Samuelsson, Bryson, Borgen, Laaksonen. Johnson. UPL, Johansson, and Portillo. And a handful of skaters still over in Europe. I'm not sure where this list stacks up League-wide.

Mittlestadt and Thompson never "made it," though. They may or may not, but they haven't.

[Thorny]

On 8/25/2020 at 10:18 AM, dudacek said:

We aren't talking about anything other than our current prospect depth up front.

None of those teams — 1/4 of the league — have a significantly better list of five players than the Sabres. Some are clearly worse.

I can do the next tier — Calgary, Columbus, St. Louis, Arizona, Chicago, Montreal, Washington and Carolina — and I suspect the results won't be significantly different.

Our group is mediocre compared to the league, not terrible.

And when you factor in relativity, as one should to everything, it’s bad. Bottom of league team, picking high, up against the cap. A “mediocre” F pool is bad. But that’s just for the sake of argument. Most outlets have our pool as bottom tier and not mediocre. 

When we have larger holes to replace, there is inherently less likelihood our mediocre grouping amounts to the success another team’s mediocre pool does, when they are asking less of it. 

Edited September 1, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorny]

On 8/25/2020 at 5:22 PM, dudacek said:

Waitaminnit? So LGR is actually a Jets fan doing everything he can to make sure we don't take Sanderson?

 

Jets need a C more, I hope they take Sanderson

On 8/26/2020 at 1:13 PM, LGR4GM said:

Sure am. As long as you take Seth Jarvis that is what I am here for.

 

The more I watch on Jarvis the more it is him or Rossi for me at 8. There's just a tenacity about the kid. Good motor, good shot, great skating, good stickhandling. I really don't know what there is not to like about him. 

Can he pass?

[Thorny]

On 8/29/2020 at 7:40 AM, LGR4GM said:

 

I like Rossi, but I’m not too too concerned with NHL availability for next season - we need to bring in a top 6 C regardless, and if we have a rookie lining up at C next year on a lower line it’s probably Cozens. If a 2020 draftee can step in and provide some pop as a winger right out of the gate, that would be a nice bonus, but it’s not a key factor for me. 

On 8/30/2020 at 1:58 PM, Ducky said:

If Laf, Stutz, Byfield, Drysdale, Rossi, Raymond and Perfetti are gone by 8, which player do the Sabres draft?

Lundell or Jarvis.

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, Thorny said:

And when you factor in relativity, as one should to everything, it’s bad. Bottom of league team, picking high, up against the cap. A “mediocre” F pool is bad. But that’s just for the sake of argument. Most outlets have our pool as bottom tier and not mediocre. 

When we have larger holes to replace, there is inherently less likelihood our mediocre grouping amounts to the success another team’s mediocre pool does, when they are asking less of it. 

Who are the outlets? I don’t doubt you, but as far as the outlets I follow closely (Hockey News Future Watch, Pronman and Wheeler) I honestly haven’t seen a ranking in years that puts the Sabres in the bottom 3rd of prospects. I’m used to seeing us in the top third and rolling my eyes and saying a lot of good that has done us.

As far as the bigger picture discussion goes, I think most of the arguments come down to where people are choosing to to draw their boundaries and, in the case of the forwards, what you think of Tage and Casey.

Dont matter. Ted Nolan had the right of it: All prospects are suspects heading toward rejects, at least if you are a Sabres fan.

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Who are the outlets? I don’t doubt you, but as far as the outlets I follow closely (Hockey News Future Watch, Pronman and Wheeler) I honestly haven’t seen a ranking in years that puts the Sabres in the bottom 3rd of prospects. I’m used to seeing us in the top third and rolling my eyes and saying a lot of good that has done us.

As far as the bigger picture discussion goes, I think most of the arguments come down to where people are choosing to to draw their boundaries and, in the case of the forwards, what you think of Tage and Casey.

Dont matter. Ted Nolan had the right of it: All prospects are suspects heading toward rejects, at least if you are a Sabres fan.

You're right - I'm seeing a lot more of a mid-pack consensus the more I look.

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-farm-system-rankings/

18th here for example, came out today. As mentioned, it's not exactly good considering where we've been in the standings. And considering the strength of our d prospects, which factor into these rankings, I'd peg our forward prospect depth as lower third. 

It's also entirely reliant on Cozens. It's scary. But, I do really, really like Cozens. 

[DarthEbriate]

18 hours ago, Eleven said:

Mittlestadt and Thompson never "made it," though. They may or may not, but they haven't.

Perhaps more "anointed as having made it by the front office". I believe we all still have them listed as prospects.

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

You're right - I'm seeing a lot more of a mid-pack consensus the more I look.

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-farm-system-rankings/

18th here for example, came out today. As mentioned, it's not exactly good considering where we've been in the standings. And considering the strength of our d prospects, which factor into these rankings, I'd peg our forward prospect depth as lower third. 

It's also entirely reliant on Cozens. It's scary. But, I do really, really like Cozens. 

Our farm system is slightly skewed by Eichel and Dahlin being day one starters. It's been our top-five picks, Olofsson, and no one "on-the-cusp".

But what we're missing is the next tier of player ready to get the call-up from the AHL (because they're all in Europe, they're just all defensemen, or they're borderline NHL prospects signed out of college to begin with [i.e., Casey Nelson, Andrew Oglevie]). For example, we needed a PK-er last year. Our GM went and got Frolik, rather than call up a Malone or equivalent (granted, Tage was already hurt and Lazar was already up). Maybe this year's prospect pool will be different.

[dudacek]

32 minutes ago, Thorny said:

You're right - I'm seeing a lot more of a mid-pack consensus the more I look.

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-farm-system-rankings/

18th here for example, came out today. As mentioned, it's not exactly good considering where we've been in the standings. And considering the strength of our d prospects, which factor into these rankings, I'd peg our forward prospect depth as lower third. 

It's also entirely reliant on Cozens. It's scary. But, I do really, really like Cozens. 

That pool they are ranking 18th doesn’t include Mittelstadt, Thompson or Asplund: high picks from ‘16 and ‘17 who weren’t on the NHL roster in 2020.

If you write those three off as never-wills, then it is scary.

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

That pool they are ranking 18th doesn’t include Mittelstadt, Thompson or Asplund: high picks from ‘16 and ‘17 who weren’t on the NHL roster in 2020.

If you write those three off as never-wills, then it is scary.

Other teams have those guys too

Thompson and Asplund are not noteworthy prospects relative to other organizations. The only thing tangibly special about Mittelstadt is that he was drafted 8th overall, and I’m personally not going to ignore everything we’ve seen since, and rank him as noteworthy relative to the guy the other organization has slotted in his depth chart position simply because he was picked high. 

I’m not writing him off, and you’ve listed players that look similar to him at this stage that panned out swimmingly, and it’s possible. But there are many more that don’t. I don’t come up with a lower tier F ranking by writing those guys off, I see them as the ~20-22 ranked F unit inclusive of them being decent prospects. 

We have a solid D pipeline, and a great goalie prospect in the system, if we have a mid pack forward unit, we have an upper tier pool overall and I just don’t see that being the case. 

Edited September 2, 2020 by Thorny
Pretty minor stuff to quibble over, regardless

[dudacek]

50 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Other teams have those guys too

Thompson and Asplund are not noteworthy prospects relative to other organizations. The only thing tangibly special about Mittelstadt is that he was drafted 8th overall, and I’m personally not going to ignore everything we’ve seen since, and rank him as noteworthy relative to the guy the other organization has slotted in his depth chart position simply because he was picked high. 

I’m not writing him off, and you’ve listed players that look similar to him at this stage that panned out swimmingly, and it’s possible. But there are many more that don’t. I don’t come up with a lower tier F ranking by writing those guys off, I see them as the ~20-22 ranked F unit inclusive of them being decent prospects. 

We have a solid D pipeline, and a great goalie prospect in the system, if we have a mid pack forward unit, we have an upper tier pool overall and I just don’t see that being the case. 

All valid opinions, although I’m not sure what the bold means.

In my opinion, Mittelstadt, Thompson and Asplund are not “special” but they are three of of our five best forward prospects and their exclusion makes a difference. They are comparable to forwards 2-5 on a majority of teams I have looked at. Ruotsalainen Pekar and Davidsson (likely our next three) are not.

Edited September 2, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

Anyways... back to the top of this draft. 

Jarvis is the guy I would take at 8 as my safety pick if Rossi and Perfetti are both gone. I might take Drysdale if he somehow slid to there. Holtz and Raymond really concern me and to be honest we have seen better players in the SHL in recent years from a draft perspective. I almost wonder if the hype centers around the World Juniors where Raymond and Holtz both played well. Anyways that is where I am at. 

My rough top 12:

1. Lafrienere (Tier 1)
2. Byfield
3. Stutzle
4. Rossi (Tier 2)
5. Jarvis
6. Drysdale
7. Perfetti
8. Raymond (Tier 3)
9. Holtz
10. Lundell
11. Mercer
12. Sanderson

I put in the tiers to roughly show where there is a drop. Technically Lefrienere should be in his own tier but that's boring. I think the big 3 are pretty well locked in. Then you will have another 3-4 guys in that next level. I would note that most teams will switch out Jarvis for Raymond and maybe also Holtz but again, I am not most teams. That 3rd tier is there because I think those are the next level of guys and they come with more risk. Raymond, is he a perimeter player and will his game translate? Holtz, can he drive possession or is he only going to be a shooter? Lundell, can he upgrade his skating and will his offense stagnate? Mercer, was he just older and producing in a defense lacking league? Sanderson, is there enough offensive upside to justify taking him high or is he more of a middle pairing guy with decent passing? 

[tom webster]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Anyways... back to the top of this draft. 

Jarvis is the guy I would take at 8 as my safety pick if Rossi and Perfetti are both gone. I might take Drysdale if he somehow slid to there. Holtz and Raymond really concern me and to be honest we have seen better players in the SHL in recent years from a draft perspective. I almost wonder if the hype centers around the World Juniors where Raymond and Holtz both played well. Anyways that is where I am at. 

My rough top 12:

1. Lafrienere (Tier 1)
2. Byfield
3. Stutzle
4. Rossi (Tier 2)
5. Jarvis
6. Drysdale
7. Perfetti
8. Raymond (Tier 3)
9. Holtz
10. Lundell
11. Mercer
12. Sanderson

I put in the tiers to roughly show where there is a drop. Technically Lefrienere should be in his own tier but that's boring. I think the big 3 are pretty well locked in. Then you will have another 3-4 guys in that next level. I would note that most teams will switch out Jarvis for Raymond and maybe also Holtz but again, I am not most teams. That 3rd tier is there because I think those are the next level of guys and they come with more risk. Raymond, is he a perimeter player and will his game translate? Holtz, can he drive possession or is he only going to be a shooter? Lundell, can he upgrade his skating and will his offense stagnate? Mercer, was he just older and producing in a defense lacking league? Sanderson, is there enough offensive upside to justify taking him high or is he more of a middle pairing guy with decent passing? 

Thank you for this. 

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, tom webster said:

Thank you for this. 

Welcome and it is subject to change pre draft depending on things and stuff (Raymond and Holtz will play before the draft)

[Eleven]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Anyways... back to the top of this draft. 

Jarvis is the guy I would take at 8 as my safety pick if Rossi and Perfetti are both gone. I might take Drysdale if he somehow slid to there. Holtz and Raymond really concern me and to be honest we have seen better players in the SHL in recent years from a draft perspective. I almost wonder if the hype centers around the World Juniors where Raymond and Holtz both played well. Anyways that is where I am at. 

My rough top 12:

1. Lafrienere (Tier 1)
2. Byfield
3. Stutzle
4. Rossi (Tier 2)
5. Jarvis
6. Drysdale
7. Perfetti
8. Raymond (Tier 3)
9. Holtz
10. Lundell
11. Mercer
12. Sanderson

I put in the tiers to roughly show where there is a drop. Technically Lefrienere should be in his own tier but that's boring. I think the big 3 are pretty well locked in. Then you will have another 3-4 guys in that next level. I would note that most teams will switch out Jarvis for Raymond and maybe also Holtz but again, I am not most teams. That 3rd tier is there because I think those are the next level of guys and they come with more risk. Raymond, is he a perimeter player and will his game translate? Holtz, can he drive possession or is he only going to be a shooter? Lundell, can he upgrade his skating and will his offense stagnate? Mercer, was he just older and producing in a defense lacking league? Sanderson, is there enough offensive upside to justify taking him high or is he more of a middle pairing guy with decent passing? 

I don't think Lafreniere belongs in his own tier at all.  He's not McDavid, he's not Eichel, he's not even Auston Matthews.  I think he's Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.  Maybe Taylor Hall.  Maybe.

I don't want the Sabres using this pick on a "safety" or on a tier-3 player.  TRADE THE PICK already.

 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Eleven said:

I don't think Lafreniere belongs in his own tier at all.  He's not McDavid, he's not Eichel, he's not even Auston Matthews.  I think he's Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.  Maybe Taylor Hall.  Maybe.

I don't want the Sabres using this pick on a "safety" or on a tier-3 player.  TRADE THE PICK already.

 

I said safety because I can guarantee he will be there, even though he shouldn't be. 

[Eleven]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

I said safety because I can guarantee he will be there, even though he shouldn't be. 

I get it, but no.  Trade it.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I get it, but no.  Trade it.

Would depend heavily on the trade. Players got to be 23 or younger and a center for me to trade it.