Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
North Buffalo

2020 Draft Rankings Not Soon Enough...

Recommended Posts

If the Sabres end up somehow drafting at the top of the draft, you make that pick unless Edm offers McDavid.

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The top 5 really interest me in this draft. I might say top 4 but for now top 5. I would say that Rossi, Sutzle, and Lafrieneire are NHL ready or close to it. Byfield will probably graduate but mentally he isn't ready and that isn't because he isn't a smart player. I am saying that because of his age and what we know about cognitive development. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/sportsnets-2020-nhl-draft-prospect-rankings-april/

Top 10: Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Holtz, Rossi, Drysdale, Raymond, Perfetti, Holloway, and Askarov

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/

Top 10: Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Raymond, Holtz, Drysdale, Rossi, Perfetti, Zary, Sanderson

https://www.nhl.com/news/alexis-lafreniere-rated-number-one-north-american-skater-final-ranking/c-316535070

TOP 8 NA: Skaters:  Lafreniere, Byfield, Drysdale, Sanderson, Perfetti, Rossi, Quinn, Guhle

TOP 5 INT: Skaters: Stutzle, Hotlz, Lundell, Raymond, Amirov

https://dobberprospects.com/robinson-2020-nhl-draft-rankings-april-2020/

Top 10: Byfield, Lafreniere, Rossi, Raymond, Stutzle, Holtz, Drysdale, Perfetti, Lundell, and Jarvis

https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-alexis-lafreniere-solidifies-status-as-hockey-s-top-prospect-1.1461675

Button from 3/30 Top 10: Lafreniere, Stutzle, Byfield, Perfetti, Drysdale, Quinn, Askarov, Rossi, Raymond, Lapierre (He has Holtz (13) and Lundell (16))

Assuming the NHL doesn't do anything "special" to this draft, the Sabres currently sit 7th.  Under the current rules we could draft 1(6.5%) 2 (6.8%), 3 (7.1%), 7 (26%), 8 (39.5%), 9 (13.1%) or 10 (1%).  So lets assume we are drafting 7th or 8th.  Since 2013 we'll have drafted 7th or 8th four times - Risto (2013 8th), Nylander (2016 8th), Mitts (2017 8th) and Cozens (2019 7th).  This year will be the 5th.  

Based on recent rankings it looks like forwards Rossi, Perfetti, Holtz, and Raymond are our most likely targets.  I'm going to assume Byfield, Lafreniere and Stutzle are likely going 1-3 and Drysdale will be the 1st D taken.  Therefore my guess is Perfetti is going to be the pick. Biggest issue is that he isn't an explosive skater (aka not a burner like Eichel), but otherwise is a good skater.

Stats:  2018-19:  63gp 37g 37a 74 pts  

2019-20: 61 gp 37g 74a 111pts.

From Sportsnet.ca

Quote

8. Cole Perfetti, LW/C, Saginaw Spirit (OHL): An elite hockey brain and an abundance of character will allow him to transition easily to the NHL. It may not be as early as next year, but down the road he’s a top-six player all day long.

 

 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like Raymond over Perfetti but I am still a month away from the deep dive being even remotely done. 

If you want to get some breakdowns and highlights of a bunch of guys, don't take my word. Do your own research and avoid group think. Here is a youtuber with lots of highlights and discussion of top guys. 

https://www.youtube.com/user/yann987/videos

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dark Horse Candidate at 7-9th overall. Seth Jarvis. The fact he is consistently ranked outside the top 10 is weird. In the last 20 years, he is I think 3rd in the WHL for ppg. He's ranked in the 20's for some which is insane. 

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/201952/seth-jarvis

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the course of the conversation about Cozens going back to juniors, I looked up the WHL scoring. Cozens sits in third overall for ppg. 

So what? That isn't the interesting part. The interesting part is who sits at 2nd overall in the WHL at ppg... Seth Jarvis. Further to that point, Jarvis lead his team in points by 28. At 7, the Sabres could do a lot worse than taking Jarvis who I think is shockingly underrated. 

I love this kid. 

 

 

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could size and position be working against him somewhat in a pretty deep forward group?  Jack Quinn also?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So my top 5 are:

  1. Lafrienere
  2. Byfield
  3. Rossi
  4. Raymond
  5. Stutzle

.... my number 6 Jarvis. There are about 3-4 players I considered here but Jarvis has this pop factor on the ice I like. His work ethic and skating is great. He's 5'10" which is the only reason he isn't ranked higher IMPO. He is also a winger. That said, if this kid gains about 15lbs of muslce (he's listed at 172, so think of him at about 187) he is going to destroy teams. I love him and I want him. His skating is elite and he his motor is excellent. I think his stickhandling is is good but his shot could be heavier. That said, he has a lot of shot options. I want a line of Cozens - Jarvis in the future. It would be electric. 

Edited by LGR4GM
spelling

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks to @LGR4GM for the Draft Dynasty YouTube channel. I can listen to skid row Marty Biron talk prospects all damn day! 

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, ubkev said:

Thanks to @LGR4GM for the Draft Dynasty YouTube channel. I can listen to skid row Marty Biron talk prospects all damn day! 

I don't always agree with his conclusions but it is a great jumping off point to learn about prospects. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't always agree with his conclusions but it is a great jumping off point to learn about prospects. 

I'm a few videos deep. His analysis seems alright enough so far and it beats the hell out of stat sheets for me. 

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ubkev said:

I'm a few videos deep. His analysis seems alright enough so far and it beats the hell out of stat sheets for me. 

Oh yea. I love listening to his Marty Bironesque accent. He also talks about the downside of a player and I like that. 

  • Like (+1) 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting piece in the Athletic on why teams are much better off grabbing defencemen over forwards after the first round.

https://theathletic.com/1828498/2020/05/21/why-nhl-teams-should-gamble-on-defencemen-over-forwards-later-in-the-draft/

The gist is that you have better odds of getting a good players.

Scouts are really good at identifying top forward talent, but good defencemen regularly slip down the board. 62 per cent of the NHL’s top six forwards were picked in the first, compared to less than half of the top three D.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And that is why you don't draft defenders over forwards at the end of round 1. 

  • Like (+1) 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

In the course of the conversation about Cozens going back to juniors, I looked up the WHL scoring. Cozens sits in third overall for ppg. 

So what? That isn't the interesting part. The interesting part is who sits at 2nd overall in the WHL at ppg... Seth Jarvis. Further to that point, Jarvis lead his team in points by 28. At 7, the Sabres could do a lot worse than taking Jarvis who I think is shockingly underrated. 

I love this kid. 

 

 

Excellent detective work here!  This guy wasn't even on my radar (due to ignorance on the player), but I have to say, you bring up some compelling points and he shows pretty well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, dudacek said:

Interesting piece in the Athletic on why teams are much better off grabbing defencemen over forwards after the first round.

https://theathletic.com/1828498/2020/05/21/why-nhl-teams-should-gamble-on-defencemen-over-forwards-later-in-the-draft/

The gist is that you have better odds of getting a good players.

Scouts are really good at identifying top forward talent, but good defencemen regularly slip down the board. 62 per cent of the NHL’s top six forwards were picked in the first, compared to less than half of the top three D.

I don't get the Athletic, so I haven't read it, but I'm fairly certain he is wrong because he makes a conclusion that the data doesn't support. I think the correct conclusion is ligers, that because 62% of the top-six forwards come in the first round, you must use your premium assets on forwards, and try to find defensemen other ways.

If you look at drafts from 2005-2015

picks 100-250 Forwards
         seventeen totaltotal 18.43
        seventeen number of picks 412
        seventeen games played 7595

        eighteen totaltotal 30.01
        eighteen number of picks 126
        eighteen games played 3781

        totaltotal 19.74
        nineteen number of picks 82
        nineteen games played 1619

picks     100-250 Defensemen
        seventeen totaltotal 9.91
        seventeen number of picks 268
        seventeen games played 2656

        eightteen totaltotal 27.32
        eightteen number of picks 57
        eightteen games played 1557

        nineteen totaltotal 18.80
        nineteen number of picks 51
        nineteen games played 959

picks     29-100 forwards

        seventeen totaltotal 47.26
        seventeen number of picks 355
        seventeen games played 16777

        eighteen totaltotal 68.07
        eighteen number of picks 29
        eighteen games played 1974

         nineteen totaltotal 70.90
        nineteen number of picks 21
        nineteen games played 1489

picks     29-100 defensemen

        seventeen totaltotal 31.91
        seventeen number of picks 200
        seventeen games played 6383

        eighteen totaltotal 61.71
        eighteen number of picks 7
        eighteen games played 432

        nineteen totaltotal 56.40
        nineteen number of picks 10
        nineteen games played 564
 

 

So after pick 100, you expect to get 10 NHL games per first time (17 year old) pick. Everything else is much better, forwards are over 18, overagers well above either number. What you need to do is pick more overagers, and sign more undrafted players, because defensive talent isn't as obvious at 17 when most players are drafted. 

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, rakish said:

I don't get the Athletic, so I haven't read it, but I'm fairly certain he is wrong because he makes a conclusion that the data doesn't support. I think the correct conclusion is ligers, that because 62% of the top-six forwards come in the first round, you must use your premium assets on forwards, and try to find defensemen other ways.

If you look at drafts from 2005-2015

picks 100-250 Forwards
         seventeen totaltotal 18.43
        seventeen number of picks 412
        seventeen games played 7595

        eighteen totaltotal 30.01
        eighteen number of picks 126
        eighteen games played 3781

        totaltotal 19.74
        nineteen number of picks 82
        nineteen games played 1619

picks     100-250 Defensemen
        seventeen totaltotal 9.91
        seventeen number of picks 268
        seventeen games played 2656

        eightteen totaltotal 27.32
        eightteen number of picks 57
        eightteen games played 1557

        nineteen totaltotal 18.80
        nineteen number of picks 51
        nineteen games played 959

picks     29-100 forwards

        seventeen totaltotal 47.26
        seventeen number of picks 355
        seventeen games played 16777

        eighteen totaltotal 68.07
        eighteen number of picks 29
        eighteen games played 1974

         nineteen totaltotal 70.90
        nineteen number of picks 21
        nineteen games played 1489

picks     29-100 defensemen

        seventeen totaltotal 31.91
        seventeen number of picks 200
        seventeen games played 6383

        eighteen totaltotal 61.71
        eighteen number of picks 7
        eighteen games played 432

        nineteen totaltotal 56.40
        nineteen number of picks 10
        nineteen games played 564
 

 

So after pick 100, you expect to get 10 NHL games per first time (17 year old) pick. Everything else is much better, forwards are over 18, overagers well above either number. What you need to do is pick more overagers, and sign more undrafted players, because defensive talent isn't as obvious at 17 when most players are drafted. 

 

21 minutes ago, rakish said:

I don't get the Athletic, so I haven't read it, but I'm fairly certain he is wrong because he makes a conclusion that the data doesn't support. I think the correct conclusion is ligers, that because 62% of the top-six forwards come in the first round, you must use your premium assets on forwards, and try to find defensemen other ways.

If you look at drafts from 2005-2015

picks 100-250 Forwards
         seventeen totaltotal 18.43
        seventeen number of picks 412
        seventeen games played 7595

        eighteen totaltotal 30.01
        eighteen number of picks 126
        eighteen games played 3781

        totaltotal 19.74
        nineteen number of picks 82
        nineteen games played 1619

picks     100-250 Defensemen
        seventeen totaltotal 9.91
        seventeen number of picks 268
        seventeen games played 2656

        eightteen totaltotal 27.32
        eightteen number of picks 57
        eightteen games played 1557

        nineteen totaltotal 18.80
        nineteen number of picks 51
        nineteen games played 959

picks     29-100 forwards

        seventeen totaltotal 47.26
        seventeen number of picks 355
        seventeen games played 16777

        eighteen totaltotal 68.07
        eighteen number of picks 29
        eighteen games played 1974

         nineteen totaltotal 70.90
        nineteen number of picks 21
        nineteen games played 1489

picks     29-100 defensemen

        seventeen totaltotal 31.91
        seventeen number of picks 200
        seventeen games played 6383

        eighteen totaltotal 61.71
        eighteen number of picks 7
        eighteen games played 432

        nineteen totaltotal 56.40
        nineteen number of picks 10
        nineteen games played 564
 

 

So after pick 100, you expect to get 10 NHL games per first time (17 year old) pick. Everything else is much better, forwards are over 18, overagers well above either number. What you need to do is pick more overagers, and sign more undrafted players, because defensive talent isn't as obvious at 17 when most players are drafted. 

Exactly. You can find defenders in other places but top 6 forwards, not so much. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think you might looking at it through the other end of the lens, but I don’t see the author as disagreeing with you guys at all, just making a different point.

His point was basically that you have a much better chance of getting a PK Subban or Shea Weber after round one than you do Patrice Bergeron or Nikita Kucherov, probably because scouts are better able to identify what make a talented forward at 18 than a good defenceman.

His rankings are based on ice time.

 

0E8920EC-4012-4D93-BCAA-C4E5DC9D215C.png

17A33010-337E-4285-B871-0E844A572E97.png

Edited by dudacek
  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Corey Pronman's rankings. Not a fan of Pronmans rankings for what it is worth. Here is a perfect example why I dislike Pronman " He doesn’t raise to the top tier of the draft due to his size and speed combination". The player in question is Rossi and he says earlier that "Rossi’s skating is good, but he’s more of a skill player than a speedy player. He’s not the quickest small player you’ll ever see, but he has a powerful stride and good edge work to elude checks." And yet Pronman almost immediately discounts that because of his size. It's a bad way to draft. 

https://theathletic.com/1769140/2020/05/27/pronmans-2020-nhl-draft-board-top-122-prospects/

Edited by LGR4GM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Corey Pronman's rankings. Not a fan of Pronmans rankings for what it is worth. Here is a perfect example why I dislike Pronman " He doesn’t raise to the top tier of the draft due to his size and speed combination". The player in question is Rossi and he says earlier that "Rossi’s skating is good, but he’s more of a skill player than a speedy player. He’s not the quickest small player you’ll ever see, but he has a powerful stride and good edge work to elude checks." And yet Pronman almost immediately discounts that because of his size. It's a bad way to draft. 

https://theathletic.com/1769140/2020/05/27/pronmans-2020-nhl-draft-board-top-122-prospects/

Thank you.  The obsession with size is a leftover from the hook-and-hold era.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I gotta say, I might be making some changes to my top 5. Changing my top 10 for sure. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, E4 ... Ke2 said:

Thank you.  The obsession with size is a leftover from the hook-and-hold era.

You’re talking about the playoffs, right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, SwampD said:

You’re talking about the playoffs, right?

Rossi is exactly the type of player you want in the playoffs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Corey Pronman's rankings. Not a fan of Pronmans rankings for what it is worth. Here is a perfect example why I dislike Pronman " He doesn’t raise to the top tier of the draft due to his size and speed combination". The player in question is Rossi and he says earlier that "Rossi’s skating is good, but he’s more of a skill player than a speedy player. He’s not the quickest small player you’ll ever see, but he has a powerful stride and good edge work to elude checks." And yet Pronman almost immediately discounts that because of his size. It's a bad way to draft. 

https://theathletic.com/1769140/2020/05/27/pronmans-2020-nhl-draft-board-top-122-prospects/

I find it interesting that that size and speed have increasingly factored into Pronman’s rankings in recent years when he used to be about skill above all else.

I think it’s an outgrowth of some players he liked not being strong enough or fast enough to take advantage of their skill at the NHL level. One prime example, of course, being our Casey Mitts, who Pronman absolutely loved back in 2018.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...