LTS Posted February 25, 2017 Report Share Posted February 25, 2017 Not sure why you'd have a hard time with that - those point-predictions, on their face, suggest that it's just tougher sledding in the NCAA. I would also agree that there's most likely better "talent" in major juniors, top to bottom. But I think it does make a difference to be skating against a fleet 17 year-old (who may be destined for a middle-6 career in the NHL), versus skating against a savvy 21 year-old (who's going to top out as an AHLer). Some of this may also owe to styles of play in the two leagues. Primarily I would look at the number of players that come out of NCAA and those of juniors. If fewer players come out of NCAA and they are prolific in the NHL it would skew statistics to favor them over more junior players showing up. Moreover, if you take a highly offensive juniors league (Q) and then bring those players to the NHL the likelihood of there being a drop off is greater. So, it really depends on how you control those factors when you make the league to NHL point comparison. I'd expect that NCAA team beating junior team holds pretty well across the board. Though adjusting for age the junior team would almost always be better than the NCAA team; at that particular date in time the comparison is made, the NCAA team would be better. Those college kids playing varsity are primarily in their 20's & 20 is where the kids cap out at in junior. Though more of the junior kids will make it to the NHL, they aren't as far into their development as the college players. The comparison is essentially that of a HS all county (to all state for the top end juniors) baseball team going against UT, Miami, or LSU. Could the kids win a game out of a long series; possibly but wouldn't want to have money on it. I can't get to the bolded with you.. An all state team going against a top flight college program. I would think the best you get is an All-American HS team going against a top flight college program. I still think the college program wins. However, again, we are now only talking about the TOP of the group. I don't think the age difference is as big a deal from 18-20 or 19-21, or 20-22. If you hold skill equal then absolutely, but there is a point where skill difference overcomes age difference and I think that in general the two years at most difference isn't enough across the board. There comes a time when top bantam age players must decide if they're going to play major junior in Canada, or NCAA. If they choose to play major junior they lose eligibility to play NCAA. Let's say they choose major junior. They'll jump right into the program at 16 years old and once there, they're committed until they age out or turn pro. If they decided to maintain college eligibitly and go the NCAA route, they'll go play junior A, most likely USHL, for a few years or more until the college program offers them a full-time spot on their roster. It's very very rare for a true freshman age kid to play a significant role on a college team. College's prefer to let their commits grow and mature in the USHL (or NAHL in some cases) before bringing them in full time as a 20-21 year old freshman. An interesting point I hadn't thought about so thank you for clarifying the age issue. At the same time, wouldn't it be safe to say that if you are a hockey player and Jr. A is your best option that you might not be on course for an NHL career? If, in any given birth year, only 90 of the world's hockey players have a shot at the NHL (top 3 rounds of the draft) I would think that if you are only playing Jr. A then you are on the extreme outside looking in. Even if you expand that to include competing for spots against 3 birth years you are only talking 270 players in the world. In this case however, Eichel had 1 year of competing against the NCAA talent. Where has that NCAA talent stacked up on the draft board? In his draft year here is the break down.. League(2015) Rd1 Rd2 Rd3 % of picks Juniors 17 19 14 55% NCAA 3 1 0 4% NTDP/USHL 4 4 6 15% European 6 7 8 23% Other 0 0 2 2% Seems to me that Jack was not competing against great talent that year. Now, of course the NCAA players he was playing against could have been drafted a few years prior. So I looked at 2014 and 2013 just to see. League (2014) Rd1 Rd2 Rd3 % of picks Juniors 20 15 13 53% NCAA 0 1 0 1% NTDP/USHL 4 6 4 15% European 6 7 6 21% Other 0 1 7 9% League (2013) Rd1 Rd2 Rd3 % of picks Juniors 22 19 16 63% NCAA 0 2 1 3% NTDP/USHL 1 2 5 9% European 7 5 7 21% Other 0 3 1 4% I just can't get there that the talent in NCAA is anywhere near that of Juniors. In the last draft the NCAA picks were 3 in round 1, 1 each in round 2 and 3. It's 5 overall, but still not swinging like you'd expect. Even if some of the USHL/NTDP kids go to NCAA (not sure how many do) it doesn't raise the bar enough to Juniors for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted February 25, 2017 Report Share Posted February 25, 2017 Primarily I would look at the number of players that come out of NCAA and those of juniors. If fewer players come out of NCAA and they are prolific in the NHL it would skew statistics to favor them over more junior players showing up. Moreover, if you take a highly offensive juniors league (Q) and then bring those players to the NHL the likelihood of there being a drop off is greater. So, it really depends on how you control those factors when you make the league to NHL point comparison. I can't get to the bolded with you.. An all state team going against a top flight college program. I would think the best you get is an All-American HS team going against a top flight college program. I still think the college program wins. However, again, we are now only talking about the TOP of the group. I don't think the age difference is as big a deal from 18-20 or 19-21, or 20-22. If you hold skill equal then absolutely, but there is a point where skill difference overcomes age difference and I think that in general the two years at most difference isn't enough across the board. An interesting point I hadn't thought about so thank you for clarifying the age issue. At the same time, wouldn't it be safe to say that if you are a hockey player and Jr. A is your best option that you might not be on course for an NHL career? If, in any given birth year, only 90 of the world's hockey players have a shot at the NHL (top 3 rounds of the draft) I would think that if you are only playing Jr. A then you are on the extreme outside looking in. Even if you expand that to include competing for spots against 3 birth years you are only talking 270 players in the world. In this case however, Eichel had 1 year of competing against the NCAA talent. Where has that NCAA talent stacked up on the draft board? In his draft year here is the break down.. League(2015) Rd1 Rd2 Rd3 % of picks Juniors 17 19 14 55% NCAA 3 1 0 4% NTDP/USHL 4 4 6 15% European 6 7 8 23% Other 0 0 2 2% Seems to me that Jack was not competing against great talent that year. Now, of course the NCAA players he was playing against could have been drafted a few years prior. So I looked at 2014 and 2013 just to see. League (2014) Rd1 Rd2 Rd3 % of picks Juniors 20 15 13 53% NCAA 0 1 0 1% NTDP/USHL 4 6 4 15% European 6 7 6 21% Other 0 1 7 9% League (2013) Rd1 Rd2 Rd3 % of picks Juniors 22 19 16 63% NCAA 0 2 1 3% NTDP/USHL 1 2 5 9% European 7 5 7 21% Other 0 3 1 4% I just can't get there that the talent in NCAA is anywhere near that of Juniors. In the last draft the NCAA picks were 3 in round 1, 1 each in round 2 and 3. It's 5 overall, but still not swinging like you'd expect. Even if some of the USHL/NTDP kids go to NCAA (not sure how many do) it doesn't raise the bar enough to Juniors for me. It's all about where they are in their development. The draft is about a player's ceiling, not the level at which they are currently playing. Most juniors have a higher ceiling than NCAA players, they just haven't reached it yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted February 25, 2017 Report Share Posted February 25, 2017 @LTS: I don't think anyone disputes that there's more high end talent in major juniors. I think you're unduly discounting the effect of age and player development, though. The NCAA may be closer to the AHL than it is to Major Juniors. As for the percentages of where players come from in the draft: Is that adjusted for the relative numbers of top flight teams/programs in each league? If I had to guess, I'd peg that ratio at 2:1 (favouring the juniors). In any case, the deeper (and younger) talent pool in Juniors would be in line with a discrepancy of some significance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted February 25, 2017 Report Share Posted February 25, 2017 Life as Duck Bubble D He wouldn't be making the trip to ROC if he was here. http://www.si.com/nhl/2017/02/21/shea-theodore-anaheim-ducks-ahl-journey?xid=socialflow_twitter_si Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mig22 Posted February 25, 2017 Report Share Posted February 25, 2017 Isles getting slapped by CBJ and Rags over Devils 2-0 in the second. This day is starting well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mig22 Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 How can the Rangers have so many points and be so fragile? Does anyone else see this team being anything other than a convincing first round exit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 Sabres have the fourth most points in the East since January 1st. https://twitter.com/SabresFanatics/status/835647640536764417 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 https://twitter.com/bradytrett/status/835628032400355328 That had to hurt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJFIVEOH Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 This outdoor game is beyond pathetic. The WWE atmosphere, the music, the staged audience................ the NHL is embarrassing themselves. Maybe they should play that catchy new rap song. What a joke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 This outdoor game is beyond pathetic. The WWE atmosphere, the ###### music, the staged audience................ the NHL is embarrassing themselves. Maybe they should play that catchy new rap song. What a joke.The NHL, per usual, doesn't know how to do anything. They saw the success of the first couple of outdoor games and figured they should just cram as many down our throats as possible. For the record, I haven't watched any of the outdoor games including Buffalo's. The rap comment is unnecessary. https://twitter.com/bradytrett/status/835628032400355328 That had to hurt WTF was Carter thinking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJFIVEOH Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 The rap comment is unnecessary. It's a horrible song, don't read too much into it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 The NHL, per usual, doesn't know how to do anything. They saw the success of the first couple of outdoor games and figured they should just cram as many down our throats as possible. For the record, I haven't watched any of the outdoor games including Buffalo's.I'm watching. I like them. And there is only one musical performance associated with sports that is worth watching, the Super Bowl halftime show. Every single other one is unnecessary and embarrassing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJFIVEOH Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 I'm watching. I like them. And there is only one musical performance associated with sports that is worth watching, the Super Bowl halftime show. Every single other one is unnecessary and embarrassing. Come on, I thought the staged audience looked so convincing. That was a horrible song too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 Come on, I thought the staged audience looked so convincing. That was a horrible song too. I'm watching the game. I like the outdoor games, not the intermission show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJFIVEOH Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 Philly could become the first team in NHL history to miss the playoffs while having a 10 game winning streak. :blink: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mig22 Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 And the Leafs only got one. Matthews with 2 goals but got stoned on a clear breakaway in OT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 30 G for Auston. He's going to hit 40 this year before Jack does in his career.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyldnwoody44 Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 Must be nice to have a coach that doesn't suck monkey nuggets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ducky Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 30 G for Auston. He's going to hit 40 this year before Jack does in his career.. Both AM and Laine will have a hard time hitting 40 this year...Crosby might be the only player to hit 40 goals this year. Crosby and Laine are the only ones in contention that are scoring at more than 1/2 goal per game. Carter from LA might hit 40... Chevy is supposed to be getting calls on Staf's status...makes one wonder why he hasn't been moved yet...I mean, it's only a year late. Price takes over Dryden for wins for 3rd place in Habs' history.....rather have Dryden. Nobody mentioning it took Price almost 100 more games and Dryden had 74 ties. Calgary on one of their worst road trips of the year and putting up points to stay in a wildcard spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted February 27, 2017 Report Share Posted February 27, 2017 Price takes over Dryden for wins for 3rd place in Habs' history.....rather have Dryden. Nobody mentioning it took Price almost 100 more games and Dryden had 74 ties. Probably because no one cares about some ass goalie for those frogs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted February 27, 2017 Report Share Posted February 27, 2017 Gaudreau with an amazing pass https://twitter.com/mikeFAIL/status/835961206644994048 AHL fight continues in the hall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted February 27, 2017 Report Share Posted February 27, 2017 Am I crazy or did Dave Strader call the Bruins/Stars game yesterday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted February 27, 2017 Report Share Posted February 27, 2017 Am I crazy or did Dave Strader call the Bruins/Stars game yesterday? Yes, he did. He's back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted February 27, 2017 Report Share Posted February 27, 2017 @tsn_wally 2h2 hours ago More Andrew Hammond has a torn labrum in his right hip and will need surgery. He will not play the rest of the season Expected 12 week recovery Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted February 27, 2017 Report Share Posted February 27, 2017 Yes, he did. He's back Awesome news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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