Roster review: #4 Josh Gorges

[dudacek]

Next, in the ongoing roster review

 

 

#4 Josh Gorges D (three years left at $3.9 million per, age 30)

Buffalo 46/0/6/20/-28/16

 

Gorges was generally welcomed by the fanbase when Murray traded an extra second-round for him last summer. A gritty, fearless leader with a reputation as being a solid top-four defensive defenceman, he was considered a good guy to help show the kids the way through what was expected to be a tough season.

 

The results were mixed. His commitment was evident, but the results were sketchy. Gorges appeared to wear down after night after night of throwing his body in front of shots playing against the other team's top shooters. The constant losing also appeared to chafe on him mentally to a greater degree than most. Injury ended his season prematurely.

 

Whispers have since grown that perhaps Montreal traded him at just the right time because he has lost a step. And the revelation he has undergone micro fracture surgery, a procedure basketball players have been slow to return from, has many concerned he will be able to contribute much this year at all. However, it has also been argued that his injuries may have contributed to his disappointing play prior to his departure. He definitely enters the season with something to prove. 

Links to the rest of the series:

Anders Lindback: http://forums.sabres...nders-lindback/

Pat Kaleta: http://forums.sabres...patrick-kaleta/

Johan Larsson: http://forums.sabres...-johan-larsson/

Matt Hackett: http://forums.sabres...1-matt-hackett/

Andrej Meszaros: http://forums.sabres...ndrej-meszaros/

Phil Varone, Zac Dalpe, Jerry D'Amigo: http://forums.sabres...e-dalpe-damigo/

Mikhail Grigorenko: http://forums.sabres...ail-grigorenko/

Tyson Strachan, Andre Benoit: http://forums.sabres...han-and-benoit/

Mark Pysyk: http://forums.sabres...w-3-mark-pysyk/

Tim Schaller: http://forums.sabres...9-tim-schaller/

Matt Ellis: http://forums.sabres...-37-matt-ellis/

Cody Hodgson: http://forums.sabres...9-cody-hodgson/

Tyler Ennis: http://forums.sabres...63-tyler-ennis/

Chad Johnson: http://forums.sabres...3-chad-johnson/

Nick Deslauriers: http://forums.sabres...ck-deslauriers/

Cody McCormick: http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23505-roster-review-8-cody-mccormick/

Rasmus Ristolainen: http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23511-roster-review-55-rasmus-ristolainen/

 

 

Edited July 16, 2015 by dudacek

[That Aud Smell]

The more I think about it, the more the D corps concerns me. I'm sure GM TM has a plan he's working.

 

As the review indicates, Gorges looked a bit overwhelmed last year on a horrendous team. And now he's had a surgery that creates concern about his mobility (which was not great to begin with).

 

Other than Risto, the team does not seem to have anyone who truly belongs in a top pairing, or whose upside projects him there.

[nfreeman]

Has anyone seen any recent updates on his injury rehab?  I did a bit of google and didn't see anything useful.

 

If he's physically able, I think he'll have a good bounceback year.

[dudacek]

The more I think about it, the more the D corps concerns me. I'm sure GM TM has a plan he's working.

 

As the review indicates, Gorges looked a bit overwhelmed last year on a horrendous team. And now he's had a surgery that creates concern about his mobility (which was not great to begin with).

 

Other than Risto, the team does not seem to have anyone who truly belongs in a top pairing, or whose upside projects him there.

 

Not disagreeing, but it's funny that last year the blueline was the area of least concern.

We've basically traded Zadorov, Strachan and Benoit for Pysyk, Colaiacovo and Donovan, so it's not like its been gutted.

[That Aud Smell]

Not disagreeing, but it's funny that last year the blueline was the area of least concern.

We've basically traded Zadorov, Strachan and Benoit for Pysyk, Colaiacovo and Donovan, so it's not like its been gutted.

 

nor is it like it was remotely sufficient.

[shrader]

Not disagreeing, but it's funny that last year the blueline was the area of least concern.

We've basically traded Zadorov, Strachan and Benoit for Pysyk, Colaiacovo and Donovan, so it's not like its been gutted.

 

It may have been the area of least concern here, but that really was a tallest midget situation (so what's the new PC friendly version of that saying?).  That team had absolutely nothing and depending on what they can do in the trade market, this blue line still looks very thin.  I'm sure most expect it to be and Islanders-style Boychuk/Leddy fix once camp rolls around.

Edited July 16, 2015 by shrader

[That Aud Smell]

I'm sure most expect it to be and Islanders-style Boychuk/Leddy fix once camp rolls around.

 

This is where my hopes are pinned.

[TrueBlueGED]

I think many of us overrated Gorges upon his arrival, because he looked like everything we wanted Mike Weber to be. Maybe it was Nolan, maybe it and the rest of the roster, maybe it was the injuries...or maybe, just maybe, we were higher on him coming in than we should have been. Having now taken the time to go back and look at his numbers in Montreal, it seems unlikely to me the injuries or bad team were the primary contributors to his poor season. I think we're stuck paying a 3rd pairing defenseman 2nd pairing money, while also hoping microfracture surgery isn't the death sentence for hockey players that it is for basketball players (best I can tell he's the first hockey player to have this done).

 

Blood and guts players like Gorges will always have a spot for some fans, but my opinion is if he's playing top-4 minutes then our defense is going to be a hot steaming mess.

It may have been the area of least concern here, but that really was a tallest midget situation (so what's the new PC friendly version of that saying?). That team had absolutely nothing and depending on what they can do in the trade market, this blue line still looks very thin. I'm sure most expect it to be and Islanders-style Boychuk/Leddy fix once camp rolls around.

I was perusing the teams and I don't see any obvious cap dumps that have to take place. Maybe Detroit or LA (depending on the outcome of the Richards situation), but that's about all I found.

[nfreeman]

I think many of us overrated Gorges upon his arrival, because he looked like everything we wanted Mike Weber to be. Maybe it was Nolan, maybe it and the rest of the roster, maybe it was the injuries...or maybe, just maybe, we were higher on him coming in than we should have been. Having now taken the time to go back and look at his numbers in Montreal, it seems unlikely to me the injuries or bad team were the primary contributors to his poor season. I think we're stuck paying a 3rd pairing defenseman 2nd pairing money, while also hoping microfracture surgery isn't the death sentence for hockey players that it is for basketball players (best I can tell he's the first hockey player to have this done).

 

Blood and guts players like Gorges will always have a spot for some fans, but my opinion is if he's playing top-4 minutes then our defense is going to be a hot steaming mess.

 

Well, he played 21+ min per game for the Habs for 5 straight seasons before joining the Sabres -- 3rd on the team in ice time for the 2 seasons prior to joining the Sabres and 2nd for the season before that -- and the Habs were pretty good for most of those 5 seasons.

[shrader]

I think there was definitely a bit of a "hey, he just spurned Toronto and chose us instead" attitude which inflated his status here.  You don't see that too often.

[qwksndmonster]

I'm voting that he's a useful second pairing guy (depending on his recovery).  I hope that he can be a decent #4, but I'm not optimistic.

[TrueBlueGED]

Well, he played 21+ min per game for the Habs for 5 straight seasons before joining the Sabres -- 3rd on the team in ice time for the 2 seasons prior to joining the Sabres and 2nd for the season before that -- and the Habs were pretty good for most of those 5 seasons.

Luckily I've got stats like Liger has YouTube videos. Post coming tonight!

 

As for those Habs teams being pretty good, there is one single reason why they're pretty good instead of fighting for the 8th seed, and that reason is named Carey Price.

I think there was definitely a bit of a "hey, he just spurned Toronto and chose us instead" attitude which inflated his status here. You don't see that too often.

And it's still awesome to think about. F Toronto. I can't believe some freaks wanted them to get McDavid for the sake of rivalry. Edited July 16, 2015 by TrueBluePhD

[dudacek]

Luckily I've got stats like Liger has YouTube videos. Post coming tonight!

 

As for those Habs teams being pretty good, there is one single reason why they're pretty good instead of fighting for the 8th seed, and that reason is named Carey Price.

 

 

Looking forward to it.

I like Gorges and thought he was one of the few guys who had game in the first couple months of the season.

His game definitely went downhill later though.

 

Montreal made it seem like they like him, but traded him to give the young guys a chance to play and for cap reasons.

But then they went out and acquired Sergei Gonchar and Bryan Allen two months into the season.

So draw your own conclusions about what they really thought.

Edited July 16, 2015 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

Looking forward to it.

I like Gorges and thought he was one of the few guys who had game in the first couple months of the season.

His game definitely went downhill later though.

 

Montreal made it seem like they like him, but traded him to give the young guys a chance to play and for cap reasons.

But then they went out and acquired Sergei Gonchar and Bryan Allen two months into the season.

So draw your own conclusions about what they really thought.

 

Maybe they just realized that their youngsters weren't ready for prime time.

[IKnowPhysics]

Luckily I've got stats like Liger has YouTube videos. Post coming tonight!

 

Spoiler alert: He played the hardest minutes in Buffalo last season, by far.

 

Remember Robyn Regehr coming to Buffalo on a pedestal, only to be claimed by some as an enormous bust, then going to Los Angeles and playing with some success (ahem, Cup)?  Same thing.  Nolan rode Gorges like Ruff rode Regehr.  Both teams were bad, and these guys took the brunt.  Their Corsi On shows it- it isn't good.  Gorges' Corsi On last season is almost identically bad as the other defenders on this team last season, except he performs the hardest job: lots of defensive zone starts and the highest quality of competition.  Gorges also had the worst Quality of Teammates among defenders on the team.  Looking at the usage charts, you could even make the argument that Gorges had the hardest minutes and the quality worst teammates of any defender in the league.

 

I'm not ready to throw Gorges under the bus.  (I wasn't ready to throw Regehr under the bus really, either.)

 

You want to hate on a Dman?  Go after Meszaros.  He had almost identically bad Corsi On to Gorges, but played some seriously sheltered minutes (along with Zadorov) and had a pretty high Quality of Teammate.

[TrueBlueGED]

Spoiler alert: He played the hardest minutes in Buffalo last season, by far.

 

Remember Robyn Regehr coming to Buffalo on a pedestal, only to be claimed by some as an enormous bust, then going to Los Angeles and playing with some success (ahem, Cup)?  Same thing.  Nolan rode Gorges like Ruff rode Regehr.  Both teams were bad, and these guys took the brunt.  Their Corsi On shows it- it isn't good.  Gorges' Corsi On last season is almost identically bad as the other defenders on this team last season, except he performs the hardest job: lots of defensive zone starts and the highest quality of competition.  Gorges also had the worst Quality of Teammates among defenders on the team.  Looking at the usage charts, you could even make the argument that Gorges had the hardest minutes and the quality worst teammates of any defender in the league.

 

I'm not ready to throw Gorges under the bus.  (I wasn't ready to throw Regehr under the bus really, either.)

 

You want to hate on a Dman?  Go after Meszaros.  He had almost identically bad Corsi On to Gorges, but played some seriously sheltered minutes (along with Zadorov) and had a pretty high Quality of Teammate.

 

As the numbers will show (and come to nobody's surprise), Gorges brings zilch offensively. He's supposed to be a stout defensive defenseman that can handle difficult minutes. If he can't handle difficult minutes, and also doesn't add anything offensively, why exactly is he getting ice time? He was given brutal usage by Nolan...but he also had tough usage in Montreal, and his numbers were no better. It's not like a coach is going to give somebody with Gorges' skillset a bunch of offensive zone starts and powerplay time. So if he can't handle the difficult minutes, but isn't equipped to take advantage of easier minutes, then...? You have yourself a 3rd pairing Dman who has to be sheltered.

 

I'm going to show his WOWY statistics with his most frequent partner (I was going to do top-two partners, but his second place partner had so little ice time together I didn't think it was worthwhile...he generally gets pretty anchored to one partner) for the past four seasons, so three with the Habs and one with the Sabres. I think that's enough to get a pretty good read on things. 

 

2014-2015 Sabres:

Gorges with Myers

CF%  35.4

GF/60  1.60

GA/60  2.50

 

Gorges without Myers

CF%  31.0

GF/60  0.30

GA/60  3.87

 

Myers without Gorges

CF%  41.7

GF/60  2.64

GA/60  2.19

 

2013-2014 Habs

Gorges with Subban

CF%  47.6

GF/60  2.28

GA/60  2.01

 

Gorges without Subban

CF%  43.8

GF/60  1.76

GA/60  1.48

 

Subban without Gorges

CF%  50.9

GF/60  2.27

GA/60  2.86

 

 

2012-2013 Habs

Gorges with Subban

CF%  54.9

GF/60  1.77

GA/60  1.95

 

Gorges without Subban

CF%  48.5

GF/60  2.57

GA/60  1.67

 

Subban without Gorges

CF%  58.6

GF/60  4.44

GA/60  2.24

 

2011-2012 Habs

Gorges with Subban

CF%  49.5

GF/60  2.55

GA/60  1.74

 

Gorges without Subban

CF%  42.8

GF/60  2.61

GA/60  2.40

 

Subban without Gorges

CF%  50.4

GF/60  3.15

GA/60  2.25

 

2011-2014 Habs (hooray aggregate data)

Gorges with Subban

CF%  50.0

GF/60  2.35

GA/60  1.84

 

Gorges without Subban

CF%  45.1

GF/60  2.21

GA/60  1.74

 

Subban without Gorges

CF%  52.3

GF/60  2.86

GA/60  2.42

 

All told, we have...a guy. Focusing on his last three years in Montreal, the positive is that he did tend to be able to cover for Subban's defensive deficiencies--goal scoring against was noticeably lower together than when Subban was on the ice alone. The negatives are that this was entirely offset by the combination of dragging down the team's scoring and possession numbers. Now to be entirely fair, while the pair was playing apart from one another, Gorges did face tougher minutes than Subban did, so it's not shocking the team would take a hit offensively with only Gorges out there. But that's also kind of my key point: it's not like you're going to give Gorges a bunch of offensive opportunities given his skills. Gorges without Subban overall was, for all intents and purposes, scoring neutral (GF% goes from 56.1 to 59.9)...but the possession numbers tank, going from 50% to 45.1. Gorges didn't kill them overall or anything, but I think it's pretty clear he was a sub-optimal partner for Subban, who would have benefited from somebody who could give something offensively. Bottom line is he was okay...no real value added, a drag on possession, but overall you could do worse. Almost the living embodiment of a #4 Dman.

 

Now, the Buffalo numbers are clearly a trainwreck. Myers was basically lugging his carcass around. Not only was Myers better without Gorges both offensively and defensively, but Gorges was worse in both regards (and possession, of course) without Myers. We can come up with all kinds of explanations, ranging from terrible forwards to Nolan to the injury, but the bottom line is he went from being "a guy" to being a disaster on skates. Will he rebound? It's really uncharted territory as I haven't found a single case of another NHL player getting microfracture surgery, but the track record in other sports indicates he will not return to form. It's a very serious operation which can zap strength and agility from the knee, which is troubling for a guy who wasn't fleet of foot in the first place. I think the smart bet is that he comes back less effective than he was before the surgery, but again, there's not a ton of certainty here.

 

Aside from the stats, the qualitative argument to make for him getting top-4 minutes isn't very strong either given Bylsma is going to bring a puck possession system that (I'm assuming) will continue to emphasize getting up the ice quickly, which is heavily reliant on zone-exit passes. Not Gorges' forte. If there's one thing that is undisputed it's that he tends to get pinned in his own end when he's on the ice. I just don't like the fit for Bylsma. 

 

Overall I think we're left with somebody who can effectively kill penalties, but at even strength, should be used in a fairly limited role because of the downsides to his game--don't want to give him a bunch of Ozone starts at the expense of players with offensive talent, but really struggles with the truly tough assignments. Sheltered at even strength, a place on the penalty kill...that's a 3rd pairing Dman. I stand by my original argument: he's a 3rd pairing Dman making 2nd pairing money who might end up playing 1st pairing minutes. This is what we could refer to as no bueno.

Edited July 17, 2015 by TrueBluePhD

[TrueBlueGED]

One thing I forgot to add was I think the possession drag from Gorges will be a greater negative for us than it was for the Habs. Why, you may be wondering? Simple: Robin Lehner isn't Carey Price. Price allows them to be weaker on possession without significant consequences; most of us can probably agree it's unlikely Lehner provides a similar equalizer.

[dudacek]

In  season full of baffling coaching decisions, Ted Nolan using Gorges on the PP was the pinnacle.

Is there a less effective offensive defencemen in the game?

[IKnowPhysics]

WOWY isn't corrected for Quality of Teammates, and, although it's difficult to isolate with available tools, I'd be willing to bet Myers had more help on the ice.  And that gets especially cloudy when a) your coach wasn't a possession coach and b) your team was the worst possession team on record.

 

I think he's a defensive defenseman that fits as a #4 for the next two years as the kids grow up, then is worth reviewing as either a possible veteran #5/6 on a playoff team for the final year of his contract or a rental dump off.  He's going to get an honest opportunity to prove his role on a team that isn't complete , and I think that opportunity is deserved.

[Huckleberry]

I'm voting that he's a useful second pairing guy (depending on his recovery).  I hope that he can be a decent #4, but I'm not optimistic.

 

same

[Derrico]

One thing I forgot to add was I think the possession drag from Gorges will be a greater negative for us than it was for the Habs. Why, you may be wondering? Simple: Robin Lehner isn't Carey Price. Price allows them to be weaker on possession without significant consequences; most of us can probably agree it's unlikely Lehner provides a similar equalizer.

I must say I always look forward to your posts in which you argue your point.  Good use of advanced stats and a compelling case.  I didn't think our D would be the train wreck as others have said based on my belief that Pysyk will have a larger impact than some are expecting and McCabe may even be ready for the jump.  But reading things like this have me worried again.

[TrueBlueGED]

WOWY isn't corrected for Quality of Teammates, and, although it's difficult to isolate with available tools, I'd be willing to bet Myers had more help on the ice. And that gets especially cloudy when a) your coach wasn't a possession coach and b) your team was the worst possession team on record.

Although there's no available statistical adjustment, you could eyeball it pretty easily. Maybe it mattered for Montreal (I don't think it did...his most common centers were Plekanec and Desharnais, so not like his away from Subban time was with 4th liners), but the WOWY delta with Buffalo is way too large to be accounted for by teammates. Face it, he stunk last year. Maybe it was an aberration and he rebounds, there's no defending his performance last season.

[Derrico]

Although there's no available statistical adjustment, you could eyeball it pretty easily. Maybe it mattered for Montreal (I don't think it did...his most common centers were Plekanec and Desharnais, so not like his away from Subban time was with 4th liners), but the WOWY delta with Buffalo is way too large to be accounted for by teammates. Face it, he stunk last year. Maybe it was an aberration and he rebounds, there's no defending his performance last season.

Could it be he was playing hurt all year?  Hence the surgery.  (not being sarcastic, I really don't know how much he was affected by it)

[nfreeman]

As the numbers will show (and come to nobody's surprise), Gorges brings zilch offensively. He's supposed to be a stout defensive defenseman that can handle difficult minutes. If he can't handle difficult minutes, and also doesn't add anything offensively, why exactly is he getting ice time? He was given brutal usage by Nolan...but he also had tough usage in Montreal, and his numbers were no better. It's not like a coach is going to give somebody with Gorges' skillset a bunch of offensive zone starts and powerplay time. So if he can't handle the difficult minutes, but isn't equipped to take advantage of easier minutes, then...? You have yourself a 3rd pairing Dman who has to be sheltered.

 

I'm going to show his WOWY statistics with his most frequent partner (I was going to do top-two partners, but his second place partner had so little ice time together I didn't think it was worthwhile...he generally gets pretty anchored to one partner) for the past four seasons, so three with the Habs and one with the Sabres. I think that's enough to get a pretty good read on things. 

 

-snip-

 

2013-2014 Habs

Gorges with Subban

CF%  47.6

GF/60  2.28

GA/60  2.01

 

Gorges without Subban

CF%  43.8

GF/60  1.76

GA/60  1.48

 

Subban without Gorges

CF%  50.9

GF/60  2.27

GA/60  2.86

 

 

2012-2013 Habs

Gorges with Subban

CF%  54.9

GF/60  1.77

GA/60  1.95

 

Gorges without Subban

CF%  48.5

GF/60  2.57

GA/60  1.67

 

Subban without Gorges

CF%  58.6

GF/60  4.44

GA/60  2.24

 

-snip-

 

All told, we have...a guy. Focusing on his last three years in Montreal, the positive is that he did tend to be able to cover for Subban's defensive deficiencies--goal scoring against was noticeably lower together than when Subban was on the ice alone. The negatives are that this was entirely offset by the combination of dragging down the team's scoring and possession numbers. Now to be entirely fair, while the pair was playing apart from one another, Gorges did face tougher minutes than Subban did, so it's not shocking the team would take a hit offensively with only Gorges out there. But that's also kind of my key point: it's not like you're going to give Gorges a bunch of offensive opportunities given his skills. Gorges without Subban overall was, for all intents and purposes, scoring neutral (GF% goes from 56.1 to 59.9)...but the possession numbers tank, going from 50% to 45.1. Gorges didn't kill them overall or anything, but I think it's pretty clear he was a sub-optimal partner for Subban, who would have benefited from somebody who could give something offensively. Bottom line is he was okay...no real value added, a drag on possession, but overall you could do worse. Almost the living embodiment of a #4 Dman.

 

-snip-

 

Good stuff, as always, and much appreciated.

 

A few observations:

 

I did a bit of fancystats research myself and found a few things that I thought were interesting:

 

- Although you are right that Subban was Gorges' most frequent partner, in 2013-'14, less than half of Gorges' 5-on-5 time was with Subban

 

- Subban's most frequent partner in 2013-'14 wasn't Gorges, it was Markov. 

 

(Not impugning your data -- just thought that was interesting).

 

As for the claim that Gorges was a drag offensively -- the bolded #s above don't seem to bear that out -- i.e. in 2013-'14, Subban's group scored more with Gorges than without him (although admittedly this was not the case the previous year).

 

As for last year's data with the Sabres -- I think the entire season was such a train wreck on both ends of the ice that it's fair to give everyone a mulligan, including Gorges.

[drnkirishone]

Everyone besides Hogpodge