wjag Posted March 28, 2011 Report Share Posted March 28, 2011 So culling down the nine most important games that may shuffle the seatings of the Eastern Conference. No ones position is safe except maybe Boston who is unlikely to do better than the 3rd seed. However 1,2,4,5,6,7,8 are all in play and likely to change. This should be a fun six days starting tomorrow and culiminating on Sunday. BUF vs TOR PHL vs PIT CAR vs WAS NYR vs BUF MON vs CAR PIT vs TAM BUF vs WAS NYR vs WAS BUF vs CAR Here are some second tier games that will have an effect too: ATL vs MON NYR vs NYI ATL vs PHL TAM vs MIN MON vs NJD CAR vs NYI PIT vs FLA TAM vs CHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabresMojo Posted March 28, 2011 Report Share Posted March 28, 2011 So culling down the nine most important games that may shuffle the seatings of the Eastern Conference. No ones position is safe except maybe Boston who is unlikely to do better than the 3rd seed. However 1,2,4,5,6,7,8 are all in play and likely to change. This should be a fun six days starting tomorrow and culiminating on Sunday. BUF vs TOR PHL vs PIT CAR vs WAS NYR vs BUF MON vs CAR PIT vs TAM BUF vs WAS NYR vs WAS BUF vs PHL Here are some second tier games that will have an effect too: Buf vs TOR ATL vs MON NYR vs NYI ATL vs PHL TAM vs MIN MON vs NJD PIT vs FLA TAM vs CHI Great job looking thru the schedule for these games... This is why I love this time of year for hockey; every game matters... As for Buffalo's purposes... Lets they (in the first section) win all 4 games (8pts) in regulation and Wash def. Carolina; Carolina def. MTL; and Was def. NYR...Buffal is sitting at 93 points...I dont know if this is all of Buffalo has much more after this; but it'd be nice to sit at 93pts with a few point cushion on the guys below us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROC Sabres Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 Great job looking thru the schedule for these games... This is why I love this time of year for hockey; every game matters... As for Buffalo's purposes... Lets they (in the first section) win all 4 games (8pts) in regulation and Wash def. Carolina; Carolina def. MTL; and Was def. NYR...Buffal is sitting at 93 points...I dont know if this is all of Buffalo has much more after this; but it'd be nice to sit at 93pts with a few point cushion on the guys below us.. I think I ran the numbers right the other day and if Buffalo wins 3 games including against Carolina, Carolina needs to win the other 6 games they have to get 94 and the 8th spot. Otherwise Buffalo needs 4 wins in the last 7 games to guarantee a playoff berth. How much I would love for Buffalo to win the next 3 and clinch against Carolina for their 4th win. Yea right, 7 game winning streak... I must be smoking something. EDIT: I think I am off a game and some points actually. Need to win 4 including Carolina to clinch with 93 or win 5 with 95 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabresMojo Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think I ran the numbers right the other day and if Buffalo wins 3 games including against Carolina, Carolina needs to win the other 6 games they have to get 94 and the 8th spot. Otherwise Buffalo needs 4 wins in the last 7 games to guarantee a playoff berth. How much I would love for Buffalo to win the next 3 and clinch against Carolina for their 4th win. Yea right, 7 game winning streak... I must be smoking something. EDIT: I think I am off a game and some points actually. Need to win 4 including Carolina to clinch with 93 or win 5 with 95 points. Nah; you're thinking HIGHLY of the Sabres :D I mean it is possible! Basically if Buffalo gains just one point against Carolina; they are screwed most likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJFIVEOH Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 Ya know, I was thinking if we can pick up 2 more points on Carolina tomorrow night (technically tonight) that we might be rooting for Carolina to beat Montreal on Wednesday to try and move out of the 8th spot. But looking at the top 4, it seems like they could be shuffling spots just as much as #6-#8 could by the end of the season. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabresMojo Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 Ya know, I was thinking if we can pick up 2 more points on Carolina tomorrow night (technically tonight) that we might be rooting for Carolina to beat Montreal on Wednesday to try and move out of the 8th spot. But looking at the top 4, it seems like they could be shuffling spots just as much as #6-#8 could by the end of the season. Crazy. I hope that we win tomorrow and Carolina beats Montreal...keeps our 5pt cushion and increases us a spot or two in the standings. BUT if that DOES happen; we NEED to beat Carolina to keep them out of the top 8, or at least not overtaking us. Buffalo can THEORETICALLY take up to the top 3. We gotta streak, MTL and Boston would have to slump big time...then again anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 Ya know, I was thinking if we can pick up 2 more points on Carolina tomorrow night (technically tonight) that we might be rooting for Carolina to beat Montreal on Wednesday to try and move out of the 8th spot. But looking at the top 4, it seems like they could be shuffling spots just as much as #6-#8 could by the end of the season. Crazy. That's awesome. Since the Sabres control their own destiny anyway, I personally want Carolina to win. I want the game on Sunday to mean something. I want the Sabres to win it anyway so I would rather have them win a meaningful game as opposed to beating a team that has cashed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JujuFish Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 We gotta streak, MTL and Boston would have to slump big time...then again anything is possible. Boston would have to slump big time. However, Buffalo is tied in points with Montreal if they win their game in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm sure this is posted elsewhere, but here's a fantastic site for analyzing playoff positioning: NHL Magic Numbers Basically, the magic number (points needed to eliminate a chasing team) is a combination of points earned by the team in front plus points not earned by the team chasing. So, a regulation win against a team chasing results in a 4-point reduction in the magic number. That said, the Sabres can all but eliminate Toronto and the Devils with a regulation win tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted March 29, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 Day 1 -------- Three enormous games to start the week: PHL vs PIT for the number 1 seed (Pit can only tie in points, but PHL has game in hand and more ROW) TOR vs BUF for playoff survivor (Can Buf Outlast, Out Wit, Out Play a lower seed (again) and end their playoff hopes while positioning themselves for 7th?) CAR vs WAS for Number 1 seed (WAS can tie; but, PHL has game in hand and more ROW) and Playoff dreams (CAR must have this game) The night could end with three teams tied at 100 points all vying for number one seed. PHL can't be unseated tonight but their recent play (4-5-1) suggests they are fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Wings Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm sure this is posted elsewhere, but here's a fantastic site for analyzing playoff positioning: NHL Magic Numbers Way cool. :thumbsup: This is a bit deceiving, though. I don't understand why he left out the number that it can take for the Sabres to overtake Montreal. Buffalo can overtake them on their own, w/o any help...right? EDIT: No they can't. They have a game in hand, but don't play the Habs (I thought they did). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frissonic Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 That's awesome. Since the Sabres control their own destiny anyway, I personally want Carolina to win. I want the game on Sunday to mean something. I want the Sabres to win it anyway so I would rather have them win a meaningful game as opposed to beating a team that has cashed out. they might have given up on a playoff spot by that point, but i can guarantee you they are going to bring it with zest against the sabres, if for no other reason than a grudge. we don't like them; they don't like us. we invade their arenea, and it's louder when buffalo scores. the hurricanes are going to bring their A+ game if for no other reason than to try to humiliate us. </theoretical blatherings> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JujuFish Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 Day 1 -------- Three enormous games to start the week: PHL vs PIT for the number 1 seed (Pit can only tie in points, but PHL has game in hand and more ROW) TOR vs BUF for playoff survivor (Can Buf Outlast, Out Wit, Out Play a lower seed (again) and end their playoff hopes while positioning themselves for 7th?) CAR vs WAS for Number 1 seed (WAS can tie; but, PHL has game in hand and more ROW) and Playoff dreams (CAR must have this game) The night could end with three teams tied at 100 points all vying for number one seed. PHL can't be unseated tonight but their recent play (4-5-1) suggests they are fading. I'm curious why you consider Buffalo playing against a team realistically out of playoff contention a big game, but not Montreal playing against a similar team. Both Atlanta and Toronto can max out at 90 points, and a Buffalo win (reg/OT) coupled with a Montreal loss would move Buffalo into the 6th seed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 Ya know, I was thinking if we can pick up 2 more points on Carolina tomorrow night (technically tonight) that we might be rooting for Carolina to beat Montreal on Wednesday to try and move out of the 8th spot. But looking at the top 4, it seems like they could be shuffling spots just as much as #6-#8 could by the end of the season. Crazy. Keep looking up, not down. If they pass either Montreal or NY, it doesn't matter what Carolina does, they'd be in either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm curious why you consider Buffalo playing against a team realistically out of playoff contention a big game, but not Montreal playing against a similar team. Both Atlanta and Toronto can max out at 90 points, and a Buffalo win (reg/OT) coupled with a Montreal loss would move Buffalo into the 6th seed. It is a sabres board isn't it? Good point though... the Monrayal game is just as important as the sabres/loafs game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted March 29, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm curious why you consider Buffalo playing against a team realistically out of playoff contention a big game, but not Montreal playing against a similar team. Both Atlanta and Toronto can max out at 90 points, and a Buffalo win (reg/OT) coupled with a Montreal loss would move Buffalo into the 6th seed. Quite simply, Montreal can afford the loss. They aren't in immediate jeopardy of falling out of the playoffs. A Buffalo loss and a Carolina win puts the 8 spot back in play. 3 points at this time of year with a game to play head-to-head looks "skinny". I also think that after being shut out three straight games, I wouldn't want to be visiting Atlanta. Montreal is overdue to light someone up and it probably is Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JujuFish Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 Quite simply, Montreal can afford the loss. They aren't in immediate jeopardy of falling out of the playoffs. A Buffalo loss and a Carolina win puts the 8 spot back in play. 3 points at this time of year with a game to play head-to-head looks "skinny". I also think that after being shut out three straight games, I wouldn't want to be visiting Atlanta. Montreal is overdue to light someone up and it probably is Atlanta. I would argue that currently Montreal is in greater jeopardy. They've been piss poor lately, are only 2 points up on 8th and have played an extra game, whereas both 7th and 8th seeds are playing well. This game is huge for Montreal. They need to find a way to score again. If they lose in regulation again, they will drop down to at least 7th, and that move will be down to 8th if Buffalo wins. Montreal also has a game left against Carolina as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted March 29, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 I would argue that currently Montreal is in greater jeopardy. They've been piss poor lately, are only 2 points up on 8th and have played an extra game, whereas both 7th and 8th seeds are playing well. This game is huge for Montreal. They need to find a way to score again. If they lose in regulation again, they will drop down to at least 7th, and that move will be down to 8th if Buffalo wins. Montreal also has a game left against Carolina as well. Okay. You convinced me. Montreal is in the soup too. I'll be flat out stunned to see them lose this game tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JujuFish Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 Okay. You convinced me. Montreal is in the soup too. I'll be flat out stunned to see them lose this game tonight. FWIW, I wasn't necessarily trying to convince you of anything, just a discussion on the playoff outlook. Although I like to look at things right now in their current maximums (Buffalo and Montreal both max out at 99 points for now, so in that regard I look at them on equal footing and given momentum I give the edge to Buffalo for being more secure), I like your point as well (Buffalo has a lower minimum, meaning Buffalo has to do more to reach its theoretical maximum and are thus in greater risk of moving out of the playoffs). Given the start to the season, I'm happy we can even be having this discussion. Let's Go Buffalo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skibum Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 Carolina is pretty scrood. If Buffalo even nets half of the 14 points left on the table for them, then Carolina would have to take 12 of 14 remaining points just to tie at 92. Officially, the magic number for Buffalo is 10 points, but that is only necessary if Carolina wins every one of its last 7 games. Montreal is in pretty much the same boat; they would really have to tank hard to miss the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frissonic Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 Given the start to the season, I'm happy we can even be having this discussion. Let's Go Buffalo! This. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJFIVEOH Posted March 29, 2011 Report Share Posted March 29, 2011 Keep looking up, not down. If they pass either Montreal or NY, it doesn't matter what Carolina does, they'd be in either way. Oh I know. I'm just saying that we can all sit here and say if they move up a spot they could play this team in the first round or if they pick up two spots they'll play a different team. The way it's going being being between 6-8 really and picking up a spot doesn't have any advantages because 1-4 could change overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted March 30, 2011 Report Share Posted March 30, 2011 So culling down the nine most important games that may shuffle the seatings of the Eastern Conference. No ones position is safe except maybe Boston who is unlikely to do better than the 3rd seed. However 1,2,4,5,6,7,8 are all in play and likely to change. This should be a fun six days starting tomorrow and culiminating on Sunday. BUF vs TOR PHL vs PIT CAR vs WAS NYR vs BUF MON vs CAR PIT vs TAM BUF vs WAS NYR vs WAS BUF vs CAR Here are some second tier games that will have an effect too: ATL vs MON NYR vs NYI ATL vs PHL TAM vs MIN MON vs NJD CAR vs NYI PIT vs FLA TAM vs CHI Well, day 1 didn't go all that well, did it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frissonic Posted March 30, 2011 Report Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well, day 1 didn't go all that well, did it? it went from "fun" to "nerve-wracking" in about 2.5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted March 30, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 30, 2011 Day 2 ======= BUF vs NYR MON vs CAR It's all about BUF CAR tonight. What will be the margin at the conclusion of tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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