DARCY REGIER -- SIX (6) GREAT MOVES

[SwampD]

Just Another Guy

Oh. That guy. I know him.

[Lethbridge Broncos]

Agree, it is a little over-the-top to call Ellis a GREAT MOVE. However, on the whole, he is a valuable REgier spoke on the overall SAbre team wheel. Ellis is a pretty solid player overall. His play doesnt show up on the scoresheet. But WIngs GM KEn HOlland recognized his value -- and I think his puck pursuant is addictive, admired and a MAJOR contribution to a team that must win every puck battle to have a chance each night.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Including Ellis as a "key move" is a bit over the top for me. I've said it many time this season...he is JAG.

[nfreeman]

Agree, it is a little over-the-top to call Ellis a GREAT MOVE. However, on the whole, he is a valuable REgier spoke on the overall SAbre team wheel. Ellis is a pretty solid player overall. His play doesnt show up on the scoresheet. But WIngs GM KEn HOlland recognized his value -- and I think his puck pursuant is addictive, admired and a MAJOR contribution to a team that must win every puck battle to have a chance each night.

OK, but what's with the schizo use of capital letters?

[Lethbridge Broncos]

I was stressing that the post was /is about GREAT MOVES, not 'key moves' as Labatt misrepresented and erroneously wrote.

 

 

 

OK, but what's with the schizo use of capital letters?

[LabattBlue]

I was stressing that the post was /is about GREAT MOVES, not 'key moves' as Labatt misrepresented and erroneously wrote.

key moves v. great moves..same difference. He is still JAG.

[wjag]

key moves v. great moves..same difference. He is still JAG.

True, he's no WJAG.

[buffaloaggie]

On Grier (#1), I agree that the signing has paid dividends - but wouldn't go as far as to say that Grier is skating better than he did as a younger player. From all of the reports, it's been his leadership in the lockerroom and calming presence in pressure situations during games that has made the biggest impact. I would think that he has certainly earned new respect with management and will be resigned in the summer.

 

On Montador (#2), I also agree that the signing has turned out better than most of us expected. However, I don't think it's a huge slam-dunk either. As much grit and surprising mobility as Montador has provided so far, he still seems to make more turnovers on breakouts than any other defender and also gets caught of position more than he should. He's been a solid #5/6 but if anyone in management thinks he is capable of being in the top 4 or being a QB for the power play, I'm going to be worried.

 

On Myers (#3), no debates here. When the Sabres drafted him, they were being bombarded with being too small at all positions so Buffalo's selection of a player with Myers' size was an automatic. It bothered me that management played this transparent game of charades at the start of the season about whether or not to keep Myers but in the end they made the right call.

 

On Connolly (#4), I'm not sold yet on the wisdom of the extension he got - and definitely not on the dollars they gave him. Yes, he's awakened in recent weeks to become their best player but he was invisible for a month before that. He still shows signs of being a soloist when he shouldn't be - I guess I want to see him produce consistently for the remainder of the season, stay healthy and be an impact player in the playoffs before I'll rest easy with him being the Sabres # 1 center.

 

On Kennedy (#5), Regier may have swung the trade in 2005 to get him but I credit Dineen in Portland more for what is happening now. He made the shift to center last year in the AHL and, from what I've read, became a much gritter, tougher player there than what he used to be in college.

 

Finally, on Ellis (#6), no debates there. He is what he is - a 4th line catalyst. I think the Sabres saw him as a good team player with a solid work ethic that could rub off on his teammates, which is exactly what he's provided. Ruff always loves versatility in his players (i.e. being able to play multiple positions), which Ellis does well.

I really don't get the negativity on Connolly. What does this guy have to do? He leads the team in assists and points, tied for 2nd in +/- rating and he brings a veteran presence. 2 years for $9 mil is not unreasonable. Vanek, Pominville, Hecht... those are contracts I'd say are overpriced compared to their production this year. I'm pretty happy with Connolly's productivity, whether or not he's on a scoring tear as of late, it just shows what he's capable of. The health issue has always been the concern, not his productivity.

[nfreeman]

I really don't get the negativity on Connolly. What does this guy have to do? He leads the team in assists and points, tied for 2nd in +/- rating and he brings a veteran presence. 2 years for $9 mil is not unreasonable. Vanek, Pominville, Hecht... those are contracts I'd say are overpriced compared to their production this year. I'm pretty happy with Connolly's productivity, whether or not he's on a scoring tear as of late, it just shows what he's capable of. The health issue has always been the concern, not his productivity.

Well, I've been a Connolly supporter/defender over the years, but I've been pretty disappointed in his play this year, at least until about 3 weeks ago. There were just far too many games in which he was an utter non-factor. While I agree that the 3 contracts you cited are worse than his, this doesn't excuse TC, our putative #1 center, for being invisible in game after game. The Skill is there, but in many games the will is not.

 

Hopefully, he's gotten comfortable with the new system/his linemates/the new Mighty Taco near his house and will stay dialed in for the rest of the season. Certainly when he's on, he has all the tools and is very enjoyable to watch.

[Lethbridge Broncos]

Connolly gives the club a legit center. His ability to stickhandle and control pucks, take any pass in motion, and distribute -- is world class. He has also been VERY GOOD defensively and has been on the PK and been tracking guys down in the defensive zone like a blue tick hound chasing down an escapee from a county jail. He is like Alfredson to the Sabres -- IMO. A great skating puck control guy who makes his teamates better by simply being on the ice, and even on the bench.

At the end of the day, this is a point per game player. He needs to keep eating right and sticking around the weight room. IF he can draw the top checking center in the playoff, it will allow ROy to go buck-wild as the 2nd line. And then it makes KEnnedy's line that much better. So, a healthy COnnolly = a healthy Sabres team.

 

 

 

 

 

Well, I've been a Connolly supporter/defender over the years, but I've been pretty disappointed in his play this year, at least until about 3 weeks ago. There were just far too many games in which he was an utter non-factor. While I agree that the 3 contracts you cited are worse than his, this doesn't excuse TC, our putative #1 center, for being invisible in game after game. The Skill is there, but in many games the will is not.

 

Hopefully, he's gotten comfortable with the new system/his linemates/the new Mighty Taco near his house and will stay dialed in for the rest of the season. Certainly when he's on, he has all the tools and is very enjoyable to watch.

[carpandean]

Here's the question to ask: what would you be willing to pay Connolly for this year's performance? You can assume (for this hypothetical) that he stays healthy for the rest of the season and finishes at around 80 points.

 

 

OK, got your answer?

 

 

 

 

 

Now cut it in half. Did you get $4.5 million?

 

Why in half? Admittedly a very rough number, probably a little high for dramatic effect, but it's because of his injury history. If you think he is worth exactly $4.5 million, then Darcy made a bad decision and got lucky. The was a large chance that he would have been out again, leaving a big hole again and not producing too much. In that case, he would have been worth far less than $4.5 million. So, the up side of the healthy case better be well above $4.5 million (that's not even accounting for the fact that a GM isn't risk neutral, so for example 50/50 of $2 million or $7 million is actually worth less than $4.5 million.) If you think he's worth far more (at least $6 million) this year, then Darcy made a sound decision and is reaping the benefits of it working out (i.e., he's getting that $6+ million player for $4.5 million per year because he took on the risk, knowing the possible reward outweighed the possible risk.)

 

To me, he hadn't looked like even $4.5 million until recently, so it was looking like a bad decision with a little luck. However, if he continues at his current pace, then he could end up well above that in value.

[nfreeman]

Here's the question to ask: what would you be willing to pay Connolly for this year's performance? You can assume (for this hypothetical) that he stays healthy for the rest of the season and finishes at around 80 points.

 

 

OK, got your answer?

 

 

 

 

 

Now cut it in half. Did you get $4.5 million?

 

Why in half? Admittedly a very rough number, probably a little high for dramatic effect, but it's because of his injury history. If you think he is worth exactly $4.5 million, then Darcy made a bad decision and got lucky. The was a large chance that he would have been out again, leaving a big hole again and not producing too much. In that case, he would have been worth far less than $4.5 million. So, the up side of the healthy case better be well above $4.5 million (that's not even accounting for the fact that a GM isn't risk neutral, so for example 50/50 of $2 million or $7 million is actually worth less than $4.5 million.) If you think he's worth far more (at least $6 million) this year, then Darcy made a sound decision and is reaping the benefits of it working out (i.e., he's getting that $6+ million player for $4.5 million per year because he took on the risk, knowing the possible reward outweighed the possible risk.)

 

To me, he hadn't looked like even $4.5 million until recently, so it was looking like a bad decision with a little luck. However, if he continues at his current pace, then he could end up well above that in value.

Interesting post. I agree 100% with your conclusion.

[Figster]

Here's the question to ask: what would you be willing to pay Connolly for this year's performance? You can assume (for this hypothetical) that he stays healthy for the rest of the season and finishes at around 80 points.

 

 

OK, got your answer?

 

 

 

 

 

Now cut it in half. Did you get $4.5 million?

 

Why in half? Admittedly a very rough number, probably a little high for dramatic effect, but it's because of his injury history. If you think he is worth exactly $4.5 million, then Darcy made a bad decision and got lucky. The was a large chance that he would have been out again, leaving a big hole again and not producing too much. In that case, he would have been worth far less than $4.5 million. So, the up side of the healthy case better be well above $4.5 million (that's not even accounting for the fact that a GM isn't risk neutral, so for example 50/50 of $2 million or $7 million is actually worth less than $4.5 million.) If you think he's worth far more (at least $6 million) this year, then Darcy made a sound decision and is reaping the benefits of it working out (i.e., he's getting that $6+ million player for $4.5 million per year because he took on the risk, knowing the possible reward outweighed the possible risk.)

 

To me, he hadn't looked like even $4.5 million until recently, so it was looking like a bad decision with a little luck. However, if he continues at his current pace, then he could end up well above that in value.

 

Tim Connolly has really proved me wrong and I've got nothing but praise for Connolly now, the guys playing his best hockey ever and a big reason for the Sabres push towards the front of the pack.

[Eleven]

Here's the question to ask: what would you be willing to pay Connolly for this year's performance? You can assume (for this hypothetical) that he stays healthy for the rest of the season and finishes at around 80 points.

 

 

OK, got your answer?

 

 

 

 

 

Now cut it in half. Did you get $4.5 million?

 

Why in half? Admittedly a very rough number, probably a little high for dramatic effect, but it's because of his injury history. If you think he is worth exactly $4.5 million, then Darcy made a bad decision and got lucky. The was a large chance that he would have been out again, leaving a big hole again and not producing too much. In that case, he would have been worth far less than $4.5 million. So, the up side of the healthy case better be well above $4.5 million (that's not even accounting for the fact that a GM isn't risk neutral, so for example 50/50 of $2 million or $7 million is actually worth less than $4.5 million.) If you think he's worth far more (at least $6 million) this year, then Darcy made a sound decision and is reaping the benefits of it working out (i.e., he's getting that $6+ million player for $4.5 million per year because he took on the risk, knowing the possible reward outweighed the possible risk.)

 

To me, he hadn't looked like even $4.5 million until recently, so it was looking like a bad decision with a little luck. However, if he continues at his current pace, then he could end up well above that in value.

 

Cut it in half and THEN end up at $4.5 million? Do you mean that people taking the first step in this exercise should have come to $9M, or am I reading it wrong?

 

When I cut it in half, I got $1.75M.

[carpandean]

Cut it in half and THEN end up at $4.5 million? Do you mean that people taking the first step in this exercise should have come to $9M, or am I reading it wrong?

 

When I cut it in half, I got $1.75M.

An exaggeration for dramatic affect, as I admitted, but that was the general idea.

 

However, if you came up with $1.75 million, then you feel his performance this season, even if extrapolated out to 82 games, would be worth just $3.5 million. If so, then you're saying that a healthy Timmy is worth less than $4.5 million and that you don't think Darcy made a good decision, injury history aside.

 

My general point was that what we are seeing is Connolly's non-injured (best case) self. When Darcy made the decision, Connolly had played just 20-something games since returning. So, DR had to figure that there was a decent risk of the same thing (playing only half the games, due to injury) happening again during the new contract. If he gave him $4.5 million per year, then he must have felt that Tim's non-injured self was worth much more than $4.5 million per year, because the injury history had to factor into the decision.

 

A somewhat silly example, but one would easy numbers: Darcy figures that there is a 50/50 chance of Timmy staying healthy versus playing half the games. He feels that he is a $7 million player when healthy all year and just a $2 million player when he is hurt half the time. Then, DR shouldn't be willing to pay more than (0.5)($7M)+(0.5)($2M) = $4.5M (the $2 million adjusts for all the indirect costs associated with having Tim on the roster, but not playing.) Let's say that DR made that decision as such and now we see that a healthy Tim is worth only, say, $5 million. Then, DR overpaid him. Sure, he's getting a $5 million player for $4.5 million, but only because he got lucky and Timmy stayed healthy. His actual value, when taking the potential for injuries into account, should have been less than $4.5 million. It's the difference between judging the decision within its own context (or time frame) and judging it based on the results. Now, that said, if over and over again, DR pays more than what we would estimate and keeps coming out on the high end, then we could conclude that it's probably just not luck and he actually knows more than we do.

 

Really, to estimate what you think DR should have paid Connolly, do this:

1) Extend this season's performance out to a full year and value it.

2) Value his performance (per season) for each of the last two years.

3) Estimate, based only on his history up to last year's deadline, the probability of Timmy staying healthy in each of these two seasons versus being out half the time with injury.

4) Calculate (#3)*(#1) + (1-#3)*(#2)

(Note: that's 1-#3, not #1-#3)

 

There are other factors, such as possible alternative signings, trade value, etc., but this a simple version.

[Eleven]

An exaggeration for dramatic affect, as I admitted, but that was the general idea.

 

However, if you came up with $1.75 million, then you feel his performance this season, even if extrapolated out to 82 games, would be worth just $3.5 million. If so, then you're saying that a healthy Timmy is worth less than $4.5 million and that you don't think Darcy made a good decision, injury history aside.

 

My general point was that what we are seeing is Connolly's non-injured (best case) self. When Darcy made the decision, Connolly had played just 20-something games since returning. So, DR had to figure that there was a decent risk of the same thing (playing only half the games, due to injury) happening again during the new contract. If he gave him $4.5 million per year, then he must have felt that Tim's non-injured self was worth much more than $4.5 million per year, because the injury history had to factor into the decision.

 

A somewhat silly example, but one would easy numbers: Darcy figures that there is a 50/50 chance of Timmy staying healthy versus playing half the games. He feels that he is a $7 million player when healthy all year and just a $2 million player when he is hurt half the time. Then, DR shouldn't be willing to pay more than (0.5)($7M)+(0.5)($2M) = $4.5M (the $2 million adjusts for all the indirect costs associated with having Tim on the roster, but not playing.) Let's say that DR made that decision as such and now we see that a healthy Tim is worth only, say, $5 million. Then, DR overpaid him. Sure, he's getting a $5 million player for $4.5 million, but only because he got lucky and Timmy stayed healthy. His actual value, when taking the potential for injuries into account, should have been less than $4.5 million. It's the difference between judging the decision within its own context (or time frame) and judging it based on the results. Now, that said, if over and over again, DR pays more than what we would estimate and keeps coming out on the high end, then we could conclude that it's probably just not luck and he actually knows more than we do.

 

Really, to estimate what you think DR should have paid Connolly, do this:

1) Extend this season's performance out to a full year and value it.

2) Value his performance (per season) for each of the last two years.

3) Estimate, based only on his history up to last year's deadline, the probability of Timmy staying healthy in each of these two seasons versus being out half the time with injury.

4) Calculate (#3)*(#1) + (1-#3)*(#2)

(Note: that's 1-#3, not #1-#3)

 

There are other factors, such as possible alternative signings, trade value, etc., but this a simple version.

 

Correct. Even though he's been better the last three weeks, I still am not a fan.

[carpandean]

Correct. Even though he's been better the last three weeks, I still am not a fan.

Well, then you don't need all of my fancy-shmancy math and logic. ;)

[Lethbridge Broncos]

The money seems reasonable. That is the going rate for your top center and point-per-game guy. the all stars make almsot twice as much. And he is about half as good as them IMO. So, it seems fair. But he simply allows Roy and KEnnedy to play better. Connolly is very much liek Robert Lang -- who had lovely skills for a few seasons there and made the others around him better.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, then you don't need all of my fancy-shmancy math and logic. ;)

[carpandean]

The money seems reasonable. That is the going rate for your top center and point-per-game guy. the all stars make almsot twice as much. And he is about half as good as them IMO. So, it seems fair. But he simply allows Roy and KEnnedy to play better. Connolly is very much liek Robert Lang -- who had lovely skills for a few seasons there and made the others around him better.

But, my point was that if he is making what is reasonable for how he is performing now, then Darcy gave him too much last year. If you take a chance on a guy with that kind of history, it should be with the belief that he's worth more than that salary if he can stay healthy. It's turning out to not be a bad deal, but I'm still a little hesitant to give Darcy credit for a great move there.

[Taro T]

But, my point was that if he is making what is reasonable for how he is performing now, then Darcy gave him too much last year. If you take a chance on a guy with that kind of history, it should be with the belief that he's worth more than that salary if he can stay healthy. It's turning out to not be a bad deal, but I'm still a little hesitant to give Darcy credit for a great move there.

Overall I think it was a good analysis, but I disagree w/ one part of it. I don't think he was really only a 50/50 for staying reasonably healthy heading into this season.

 

Prior to the preseason concussion, he was an ironman. He simply didn't miss games. And in that 1st year back, after having been a workout warrior apparently during the lockout which brought significant changes to his game - he actually showed that he CAN play in the NHL, while he did suffer AN injury during the season it was on a cheap hit by Kasparaitis. There are a lot of players that have missed time due to his cheap shots.

 

After that fateful Otter game, he over pushed working out when he was finally cleared to workout and created lower body injuries while working out. He didn't have a full off-season (with their playoff run) to try to recover NOR get into gameshape after '06-'07 and didn't truly have a full off-season to recover in '08 due to recovering from the hip surgery. This year he actually had a normal off-season where he could be on his normal training regimin. I am not surprised that Timmy is staying healthy this year.

 

Based on how his injury history went post-lockout, I can see where it would be easy to say that he should only play about 45 games this year, but looking more closely at it and knowing how he didn't miss games prior to that 1st concussion I fully expect him to play 70+ games this year and next. And I'd have placed the odds of it up in the 80% range.

 

Weren't people talking about a rib injury he suffered earlier this year that made him miss practices but not game time? For whatever other issues the guy may or may not have, being able to play through pain was not one of them. And as mentioned above, while I do agree that he could be given the "injury prone" label in the past few years, I believe there were circumstances that caused one to snowball into another and for HIS career, the Sabres missing the playoffs the past 2 years was the best thing that could have happened to him as it gave him an opportunity to finally get the nagging injuries under check.

[carpandean]

Overall I think it was a good analysis, but I disagree w/ one part of it. I don't think he was really only a 50/50 for staying reasonably healthy heading into this season.

I did say that the 50/50 was for easy numbers and/or dramatic effect. I would certainly have put it higher for some of the reasons that you mentioned. I just want to make sure that people don't think think that the measure of the deal (as far as rating DR is concerned) is just whether his play when healthy is worth at least $4.5 million.

 

As I said, he looking more and more like someone who is worth more than $4.5 million when healthy, so that DR may have made the correct decision. If he enters another long slump, though, my opinion may change. Right now, I'd say that it was just OK, not a "great" move, because if that inherent risk factor.

[buffaloaggie]

But, my point was that if he is making what is reasonable for how he is performing now, then Darcy gave him too much last year. If you take a chance on a guy with that kind of history, it should be with the belief that he's worth more than that salary if he can stay healthy. It's turning out to not be a bad deal, but I'm still a little hesitant to give Darcy credit for a great move there.

Because he has stayed healthy it looks like Darcy made a great move incurring the injury risk. He was buying a season or two by keeping Connolly in the fold. It would have been questionable whether Tyler Ennis and Nathan Gerbe could have stepped up to playing NHL caliber hockey. We have those guys waiting in the wings, so there is a plan B even if Connolly does go down. I'm stopping short of saying it was a stop-gap move because the Sabres need Connolly's leadership the next couple of seasons while those players can develop. If TC had gone down, sure, we'd be saying it was an awful move. Fortunately, he's staying healthy and the team s playing very well. Good investment.

 

Also, good comparison to Robert Lang by another poster.

[Taro T]

Because he has stayed healthy it looks like Darcy made a great move incurring the injury risk. He was buying a season or two by keeping Connolly in the fold. It would have been questionable whether Tyler Ennis and Nathan Gerbe could have stepped up to playing NHL caliber hockey. We have those guys waiting in the wings, so there is a plan B even if Connolly does go down. I'm stopping short of saying it was a stop-gap move because the Sabres need Connolly's leadership the next couple of seasons while those players can develop. If TC had gone down, sure, we'd be saying it was an awful move. Fortunately, he's staying healthy and the team s playing very well. Good investment.

 

Also, good comparison to Robert Lang by another poster.

I wasn't aware that he'd provided any.

 

They did & do need his playmaking.

[PromoTheRobot]

Not to nitpick but the Sabres have not picked many impact players in the draft. Myers is the first player since Drew Stafford to contribute right away. 2004 was a solid draft but 2005 and 2006 were not good.

 

PTR

[Eleven]

Not to nitpick but the Sabres have not picked many impact players in the draft. Myers is the first player since Drew Stafford to contribute right away. 2004 was a solid draft but 2005 and 2006 were not good.

 

PTR

 

I think it's too early to judge 2006--a lot of these guys are turning 21 or 22 right now. 2005 isn't too good; Butler is decent. I think spending a pick on Gerbe was a waste of a pick, and I thought so then. He's fun to watch, but I think he's just too small. Remains to be seen whether Gragnani will turn into something or not. Right now, I think not on this team. He's got to be ninth or tenth on the depth chart on a team with some very good defensemen. He might be good for a trade come late Feb. or early March. Weber, too--I haven't seen him in a while, but if he plays like he did during past call-ups, he's probably good enough to crack some team's roster. Just not this team right now.

[carpandean]

OK, now I'm starting to think it may have been a great move ... but just barely, so keep it up Timmy! :thumbsup: