IKnowPhysics

At this point, this is a must, if we're going to send our own first rounder, a potential top five pick, out.

100%

I think he puts them in a large vault, and then dives in and swims around in them like Scrooge McDuck.

Sounds like a player trying to be classy by not admitting that he wanted to be traded. I'm betting his agent did all the talking behind closed doors, which then got leaked intentionally or unintentionally, and got the media frothing.

I think they're meaningful in the context of their respective teams: one's a top line forward that sees top six opponents, one's a specialty forward that doesn't crack the top six or see other top six forwards . I agree about the shift starts. I definitely agree that with ROR gone, Eichel's QoC will likely go up, as he will attract other team's top players (at least in the games against the line-matching coaches). We might have to start line-matching Berglund, et al, against the opponents' best forwards to free up Eichel, instead of going top vs top.

And the real analytics question left remaining: what the hell do they see in Tage Thompson that warrants this ? Unless your owner doesn't want to shell out a $7.5M bonus to a grumpy puss.

Agreed, it's tricky, and a good reason why context is so important. I disagree with the bold. Eichel wasn't sheltered: only O'Reilly and Pommer had a higher CF QoC among regular forwards (ignoring Bailey), at 0.09. Thomas Vanek was sheltered AF with a CF QoC of -0.18. On average, Eichel was put into the OZ against the opponents' best players, moreso than others on the Sabres and produced a better CF%. Vanek was put into the OZ against what was likely the opponents' bottom six. No one trades Berglund for O'Reilly. But the Sabres might think that Berglund could replace at least part of O'Reilly's even strength production.

If that's real, and O'Reilly demanded a trade, then I give Jason Botterill a whole hell of a lot more leeway on trying to get a return on him than simply trying, and potentially failing, to improve this team by moving O'Reilly out of the blue.

I'm not 100% convinced that Sobotka is totally useless, especially as he'll slide into a bottom six role, and will likely improve that position even if he takes a dump all over the ice. That said, I believe that if any part of this trade is a throw-in, it's him. I don't think we asked for him. I think St Louis Cap Dumped him on us, and we took him, justifying it as depth or as added incentive for STL to give us the other parts.

There are absolutely reasons why this could be wrong. Maybe second assists really matter and O'Reilly's better than Berglund's primary points. Maybe Berglund needs teammates to get possession so he can produce. Maybe O'Reilly's teammates were trash and he's a god. I agree about the special teams: I think we have talented players that can produce on the PP. Even strength is where we got our ###### kicked in. I feel the same way. It's a feeling of relief. I don't even think that Berglund needs to be used as a defensive specialist like Larsson. I think he's going to be given a two-way 2/3C role that wasn't far from O'Reilly's even strength usage.

I believe the O'Reilly trade was carefully calculated by Botterill's team, and has the potential -but definitely not a sure thing- of being a huge win for Buffalo. See this post. But it certainly appears as if they're relying on analytics to determine the way forward, perhaps moreso than any GM in Sabres history.

After diving into the analytics, I think Botterill has an outside chance of winning this trade and immediately improving this team. To understand this possibility, you have to look at both O'Reilly and the most important player coming back to the Sabres, Patrik Berglund, very closely to understand how each of them contributed to the team and produced points. You have to go beyond the lopsided comparison of 24G and 37A for O'Reilly and 17G and 9A for Berglund. Housley used O'Reilly as a jack of all trades: O'Reilly led Sabres forwards with 1268 minutes of even strength, was 2nd to Larsson in shorthanded minutes with 126, and led the team in powerplay minutes with 291. This is akin to taking the player with the highest attributes in NHL 2018 and putting him on all of your lines. His total time on ice was third on the team, only behind Risto and Scandella- ahead of every other defenseman. To say he got leaned on to carry the team is an understatement- his player usage shows he has the hardest quality of competition of any regular forward, but he was successful in this role by all basic measurable individual attributes: goals, assists, possession, etc. Breaking down O'Reilly's game will help reveal how he really contributed: Of his 24 goals, 9 of them were even strength. The other 15 were on the powerplay. Of his 37 assists, 25 of them were even strength. 8 of them were on the powerplay. 4 were shorthanded. O'Reilly produced 0.43 goals per 60 minutes at even strength. He produced 1.18 assists per 60 minutes at even strength. O'Reilly produced 0.87 P1/60 (P1 is goals or primary assists). Berglund wasn't used very much, partly due to injury. Berglund played 769 even strength minutes. He played 53 minutes shorthanded. He played 98 minutes on the powerplay. Breaking down Patrik Berglund's game will help reveal how he could contribute: Of his 17 goals, 13 were at even strength; even in his limited time, this put him fourth on the team behind only Tarasenko, Schenn, and Schwartz, who all logged more than 1200 even strength minutes. 3 goals were on the powerplay. 1 was shorthanded. Of his 9 assists, 6 were at even strength. 3 of them were on the powerplay. Berglund produced 1.01 goals per 60 minutes at even strength. He produced 0.47 assists per 60 minutes at even strength. Berglund produced 1.29 P1/60. O'Reilly had good even strength possession in a tough role. He posted a Corsi For % of 49.9 in a role where his Quality of Competition of 0.13 and Offensive Zone Start % was 41.1. Berglund matched that possession with a CF% of 52.4 in an extremely similar even strength usage: he had a QoC of 0.15 and a OZ Starts % of 43.2. The analysis so far shows that the Sabres might try to use Berglund in a way that he produces primary points as a 2/3 center and give him the even strength minutes to do so. He produced that way in a similar situation in St Louis. I don't know if the Sabres will give him shorthanded or powerplay minutes. The problem that arises is that O'Reilly's even strength possession could have been held back by his teammates. O'Reilly's Corsi For % Quality or Teammate (Corsi Quality of Teammates; The weighted average CF% of a player’s teammates) was 46.5. This was bottom five among Sabres. Berglund's possession numbers, close to O'Reilly's, came with better teammates: Berglund's Corsi For % Quality of Teammate was 50.7. This is middle of the road among Blues players, but still a considerably better situation than O'Reilly. This isn't surprising, considering St Louis is a markedly better possession team than Buffalo: The overall range of CF%QoTs for each team, Buffalo players ranged from 46.15 to 48.45. St Louis ranged from 47.28 to 52.69. (Side note: Combined with the game outcomes (losing), this could be a contributing factor to why O'Reilly wasn't happy with the team performance: he had on average some of the worst possession teammates on a bad possession team.) So while Berglund may have had a better set of teammates than O'Reilly, O'Reilly wasn't going to be in a much better spot regardless of who he played with in Buffalo. The gigantic X factor left standing in this analysis is if Berglund can continue to produce at the pace he did at even strength in St Louis but with Buffalo Sabres as teammates. If the answer is yes, it is possible that Berglund can replace much of O'Reilly's even strength contribution. And if that is the case, Buffalo will have won this trade hands down, no question, and received a package of players that can improve this team, with draft pick cherries on top. Another, lesser factor is who will replace O'Reilly's 3.1G/60 on the powerplay, but this is harder to pin down statistically. If this all sounds familiar, Marty Biron was spouting these kinds of thoughts in different way, claiming that most of O'Reilly's production was on the powerplay. It's not necessarily wrong, but there's definitely a deeper nuance here. The takeaway is that this is not an off-the-hip trade by Botterill. This was very carefully calculated, likely with help from his analytics department. But this is also the kind of modern trade that's right out of Moneyball (see: trading Pena to play Hatteberg): a trade of a team's star player for a statistical gain, and if it backfires, it could cost Botterill his job.

Then get here and do it before the entire city figures you for Vyacheslav Kozlov.

Zadorov (#16 overall), Grigorenko (#12 overall), Compher (#35 overall), Pick #31 overall (traded for #39, AJ Greer) -For- (two years of O'Reilly and) Berglund, Sobotka, Thompson (#26 overall), 1st round (top ten protected), 2nd round ===== If Compher (#35) is the 2nd rounder, Zadorov (#16) is the 1st rounder, Thompson (#26) is the #31, this leaves: Grigorenko (#12 overall) for Berglund, Sobotka ===== Are Berglund and Sobotka worth a #12 overall pick?

Hutton finished 11th among all goalies in GSAA.

Alright, show your cards. Who wants Botts dead? If you do, I would guess it's because of the ROR trade. Have at it in this thread.

It's all for now.

Tell that to season ticket holders.

Took the words right out of my mouth. I came into this thread to post this. A God damned Taylor Pyatt.

We did exactly what we should not have done. We took a piece part package in exchange for O'Reilly. We needed quality assets that will help this team now, and that didn't happen. This is the kind of move a team does, the kind of move this team did, in order to sell all assets and tank. This team is continuing to tank. We will lose for Hughes, and we will likely lose the lottery.

It might have been leaked, but I think it was made officially official today...?

Larsson spent a year in the AHL before coming to Rochester and Buffalo, and then his development stalled as he bounced between Buffalo and Rochester for two years before finally becoming a fixture on the fourth line. He has a career high 17 points in an NHL season. He originally projected to a quality 3rd line center that was capable of 35 points in his first pro year. When he was traded to Buffalo, those were the expectations, with the understanding that it might take a year on the 4th line to develop that. That never happened. (And it doesn't help that he was injured half of last season.) Even to this day, his role on the team is to be a proficient defensive center, and he struggles in this role.

That's putting a lot of faith in Arizona, unless you're factoring the jersey bump. Also, Montreal is trending like a meteor.

It's possible that either Pilut or Olofsson or both make the lineup sometime this year. If the SHL were a weaker European league or if they were in Canadian Juniors, this wouldn't be the case, but the SHL is a quarter step down from the KHL, and I expect these guys to step in, make the adjustment, and push for low level roster spots. If they get Larsson'd up, that may not happen that soon, but it's possible.

*self-inflicted dues