pi2000
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Everything posted by pi2000
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Consider there are infinite parallel universes.... this exact scenario happens in at least one of them. Perhaps its the universe we live in.
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For the actual announcement, they should have McDavid standing behind a curtain wearing the jersey of the winning team and slowly raise it to reveal the winner.
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11-12-13-14... wash, rinse repeat
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The fact the each team gets an even distribution of numbers prevents tampering.... even BOS, who has only 10 combinations, has all numbers 1-14 included in their combinations. So there is no incentive to weight the balls any differently... well, except for the LAK, who do not have the number 1 in any of their combinations... what's up with that?
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Pennsylvania_Lottery_scandal It's a very interesting story worth the read... the guy who announces the numbers was in on it. IMO they should use the same rules and regulations as a modern day state lottery, ie.... -maintain several sets of balls, choose one at random for the draw -keep the equipment in a locked vault -measure and weigh each ball with an auditor present and then lock them away in a vault Is any of that being done? Who the knows. All I know is that Ted Black will be there with a syringe, filling all non-Sabres balls with white paint.
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infinite re-draws, i like it
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no
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I like this. However, I don't ARI would give up their 2016 1st (chance to draft hometown boy Auston Matthews). Also considering GMTM can't stop dreaming about McDavid, I don't think he'd trade out of that spot for anything.
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I wish you didn't say that... that's basically means it's gonna happen.
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You win. (I feel like I'm arguing with Mike Ehrmantraut, which usually doesn't end well for the other guy)
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Nobody can argue that chance of infinite re-do's does NOT exist. It's just highly unlikely. Also I'm still feeling uneasy about this whole lottery thing... - What type of machine do they use? Gravity Pick or Air Mix? - Are the balls weighed and measured? When and by whom? Where are the balls stored after measurement? - Do they have duplicate sets of balls and choose one set at random for the draw? - Is the equipment kept in a locked vault? These simple lottery security procedures, which are standard practice these days to prevent malpractice, ie http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Pennsylvania_Lottery_scandal
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Statistically possible. I'm not trying to troll you, it's simply a mathematical possibility that nobody ever gets McDavid. In some parallel universe somewhere, that is what happens, let's hope it's not the one we live in.
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That would be must-see-tv. I can't believe the league doesn't realize the opportunity they have here. Or how about a game of BINGO, Buffalo gets 200 bingo cards and so forth. They could auction off spots for the fans to play for their team, or pick season ticket holders based on tenure, etc..
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i guess the difference we're arguing is this... I'm arguing about the probability wrt one of the the 200 out of 1001 numbers showing up. Others are arguing about the chances of winning the lottery AGAINST other teams. The chance of winning against other teams is 20%, but the chance of winning vs THE MACHINE is 19.98%. So i'm arguing that you need to beat the machine, which all teams need to do, so all teams odds vs the machine are less 0.2%.
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cuz we all need more drama, right?
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Right, but in order to WIN one of your numbers needs to come up and there is 1 number that belongs to nobody. So the existence of that number decreases every team's odds ever so slightly. Consider there are infinite parallel universes.... in one of those universes, that 1001st number will come up over and over again for eternity, which means nobody ever gets McDavid. I hope that's not the universe we live in.... and if it is.. well, the league will be hearing from me :)
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You can't win the lottery without winning the draw... and those chances are 200/1001. Sure the difference is trivial, but it exists.
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True. But those chances (all teams) are not as advertised by the league.
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There is a statistical probability that the 1001st combination keeps coming up over and over for eternity, which means nobody ever gets McDavid. Again, if they removed that 1001st number from the draw, then it would be right, 200/1000, but they can't do that, so each draw is 200/1001. Doesn't matter if that 1001st number is a re-draw, it still a "non-win" for Buffalo.
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...and the pre-draft combine (June 1-6) is in Buffalo? Did we know that? I think we did. anyway it will interesting to see how McDavid and Eichel matchup strength and fitness wise. http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=761694 But that combination is still a possibility in the redraw, it's not thrown out. So each re-draw, the possibility of one of Buffalo's 200 numbers coming up is still 200/1001, or 19.98%.
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The fact that the 1001st combination is a possibility, reduces the odds of all teams by 0.02%. They're not removing the possibility of that number coming up, so it must be factored in.
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So Buffalo gets 200 out of 1001 combinations, which is 19.98%..... NOT 20% as the league is advertising. If Buffalo loses the lottery we can file a class action lawsuit against the league for defrauding the fans out of a 0.02% chance at McDavid.
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Tomorrow the NHL will publish the list of lottery numbers to teams. I'm interested to see what team gets the 1001st combination... if any.
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For me it was the Miller/Ott trade. You knew the tank was real at that moment, and seeing Vinz on a jersey was a sign of things to come.
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Based on this I prefer Eichel.... ..can McDavid do that? This goes back to the whole "Eichel is playing against men and McDavid is playing against teenagers" argument. I think Eichel jumps right in and conributes immediately in a big way due to his strength and size. McDavid probably gets pushed around a bit until he fills out in a few seasons.
