pi2000

Lindback starts tonight, Nolan said it's possible that Makarov starts tomorrow on the Island. Moulson (flu) and Weber () are gametime decisions. Scott Darling gets the start for CHI. He's 8-3-0 on the season with a 1.77 goals against average and .941 save percentage in 12 games (11 starts).

exactly, they need to make the range of numbers assigned to each team public.... imagine the drama.... it's like everybody playing lotto at home watching the drawing on TV..... first ball up... yes! still in it.... second ball, yeah!.... third ball.... , Hanifin it is....

Disagree about Mezz, he was a sHart Trophy candidate up until the last few games. He was awful for long stretches this season, and Buffalo wouldn't be where they are today if it wasn't for that.

The math is correct. 14 balls numbered 1-14, 4 non-repeating balls selected gives 1001 possible outcomes if order of the numbers do not matter. http://www.statisticshowto.com/calculators/permutation-calculator-and-combination-calculator/ (n=14, r=4, repeat=no, order=no) The issue is that if you add up all the outcomes for all the teams (200 for BUF, 135 for ARI, etc...) the total comes to 1000. So there's 1 possible outcome that no team has. Grab your pitchforks folks, we're marching to Toronto on April 18th.

Arizona

according the article linked above, the lottery draw is performed as follows: "The way the lottery works is that it is done by a machine that has ping-pong balls which have a different digit. Four of those balls will fall down the chute to create a four-digit number. That creates a total of 1,001 different possibilities and the number of random four-digit numbers each team receives prior to the lottery is dependent upon where it finished in the standings. The team with the winning number wins the lottery and gets the first pick overall." according to the NHL... http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=68856 "Fourteen balls, numbered 1 to 14, are placed in a lottery machine. The machine expels four balls, forming a series of numbers. The four-digit series resulting from the expulsion of the balls is matched against a probability chart that divides the possible combinations among the 14 participating clubs." That said according to my math, with 14 unique numbers, picking 4 of those numbers at random (non-repeating), AND if order does NOT matter, the number of possible outcomes is 1001. So who gets McDavid if that 1 out of 1001 combination appears? Las Vegas? And doesn't that 1/1001 chance reduce the odds for each team? ie, if BUF gets 200 combinations out of 1001, that's not 20%, that's 19.98%... so it would seem to reduce ever teams odd's by 0.02%? While not significant, it's like hitting 0/00 in roulette, it tilts the odds just slightly in the houses favor that over the long haul the Casino's make $$$ on roulette because nobody ever puts money on 0/00. I WANT ANSWERS NHL!!!!

17

So this thread will continue until when exactly?

The lesson learned here is to cheer for the opposition AT THE BEGINNING of the season.... get the players all fired up so they get themselves into a playoff position right out of the gate.

If guys like Lindros and Gretzky can get traded, I wouldn't rule out the Sabres trading up from #3 to #2. Everybody is talking about getting stuck with the #3 pick, but I have a feeling GMTM has something up his sleeve if that scenario presents itself. I know, I know, nobody is gonna trade out of a spot to draft Eichel.... BUT this is a special case since ARI is likely angling for their own homegrown Auston Mathews in 2016 who is putting up better numbers that Eichel did at the same age in the same program. A package that includes both 2015 firsts, 2016's first and somebody like Girgensons/Reinhart and Zadorov (who i think GMTM is gonna try and move anyway), would probably get it done to move up 1 spot.

Why not have the draft lottery odds aligned with point differential in the standings. So if you have two teams within a few points of each other, there is less motivation to tank since they'll have virtually the same odds in the lottery regardless of who finishes ahead of who.

BUF still has an 82% (weighted) chance at McEichel.... http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html Until that dips below 50%, I refuse to pout. 5 games left. Chances are that ARI picks up another 2-3 points. Lets say BUF beats CAR and picks up a loser OT point somewhere for a total of 55 points, That means ARI only needs to pickup 1 more point out 10 remaining possible points for BUF to clinch 30th. This thing could be over by Sat night. Advantage BUFFALO

I've been there, it's great.

No way Hanifin makes the jump to the NHL, he's heading back to school fo sho. I like him though, he's a stud. With Hot Mez filling the net, plus Risto, Zadorov, and Hanifin in 2016 we won't need our forwards to contribute much of anything... maybe that's the plan? I digress, no way in hell BUF misses out on McEichel. One of five things will happen, guaranteed. 1 - Sabres finish 30th win the lottery, all our dreams come true. 2 - Sabres finish 30th lose the lottery, generational consolation prize. 3 - Sabres finish 29th win the lottery, GMTM faints on stage as McDavid pulls on a Sabres sweater. 4 - Sabres finish 29th and 30th place ARI wins the lottery, see #2. 5 - Sabres finish 29th, neither BUF nor ARI win the lottery and BUF picks 3rd. That said, if the hockey Gods punish us for our sins and we end up with #5, I don't there's any price GMTM wouldn't pay to move up from #3 to #2. I don't see him being able to move from #3 to #1, but a move from #3 to #2 would be possible and here's why.... ARI will be the team picking #2 (do the math, duh). ARI needs help all over the place, while they already have OEL, they may jump at a deal that involves both BUF 1st rounders in 2015 and BUF 2016 first rounder. The 2016 1st rounder is key here as next year is the Auston Matthews draft. Auston Matthews is from... you guessed it, Scottsdale, AZ, and he's putting up better numbers than Eichel did at his age in the same program. He's slightly bigger than Eichel as well. Imagine the fanfare in ARI with Austom Matthews leading that team for the next decade or so... wow. Of course, the deal would also need to include somebody like Girgensons and Ennis, which I'd be OK with... So it's not all gloom and doom if BUF ends up picking 3rd. If GMTM makes Eichel the target, I have no doubt he can pull it off considering his recent trade history and the pieces at his disposal.

That only happens in the last game or two if their position is already locked up. Fortunately, CHi, NYI, and PIT are fighting for home ice advantage. You can also say the same for VAN and CGY (ARI opponents), but ANA might not have anything to play for in the finale at ARI... meaning they might leave Getzlaf and Perry, maybe Fowler, Lindholm and Anderson at home.

Which teams will be worse than BUF? ARI with McEichel will be better. EDM is on the rise. TOR maybe? CAR? 2016 is the Auston Matthews draft. He's putting up better numbers than Eichel did at his age with the US NTDP , and he's slightly bigger. However, the top 4 picks will be determined by lottery, so there's less incentive to tank on purpose. BUF is at rock bottom. Their roster has been gutted of the old core and pending UFAs, there's no where to go but up. They'll be better next year, however that doesn't mean they get out of the basement. What if Reinhart spends or starts half the season in Roch? Kane get's hurt again? Who's the goalie? Lindback? Hackett? Without McEichel BUF will be very bad again, and IMO finish in the bottom 2 or 3. Even with McEichel I still think they're a bottom 5 team (goaltending, young D, new headcoach?, etc..)

It will be an interesting finish. Instead of cheering for BUF loses, I'm changing my strategy to cheering for ARI wins. Two more ARI points (56) means BUF has to get 7 points (57) to move out of 30th. 3 more ARI points, means BUF has to get 8 points out of a possible 12, highly unlikely. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html(switch to "weighted" at the top left) shows BUF with a 89% chance of finishing last. The weighted version takes strength of opponent into consideration. What may work in BUF's favor are ARI's opponents. SJS is on the skids, they're only .500 at home, and they don't really have anything to play for at this point. VAN should have a spot locked up by the time they play, and ANA likely will have nothing to play for in the season finale at ARI. That said, Lindback looked good again last night. That save on OEL that would've tied the game late was a great play, just barely got enough and had some help from the post. If he comes back down to earth, the Sabres will be fine, otherwise he could ruin everything.

Nobody thought ARI would pickup NHL points at DET. Anything can happen, I think BUF wins a few more here but so will ARI.

Correct. But, BUF has a game in hand which is Wed at home vs TOR. So its likely a 2 point advantage with 5 each left to play. Suddenly not looking so good.

translated to CHL speak... "Quit. Don't suffer and live the rest of your life as a loser." - Muhammad Ali

It's come down to this. What an exciting time to be alive. A few more inspirational quotes for the boys tonight in Glendale. "You miss 100% of the shots you take." - Wayne Gretzky "Goals are fuel in the furnace of failure." -Brian Tracy "Whatever the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can't achieve.": -Napoleon Hill "Strive not to be a success, but rather to be a failure." -Albert Einstein "Losing isn’t everything, but wanting to lose is." - Lombardi

Smoke screen. Eichel is the better prospect.

Son of Bill Carlton Bailey.

The Oilers just about out of it. Noice.