pi2000

more Eichel/Vesey from summer league this past week.... https://youtu.be/5zwuM_Xr6Lk ..if you read the video comments, Paul Altmeyer, the creator of these videos says that he thinks he's signing with BUF.

I see it too, but I also see him get beat a lot to loose pucks in his end, or get turned the wrong way like on the McDavid OT goal. He needs to continue to improve his speed and quickness, which I think he can. That said, I still wouldn't commit 6 years to him at this stage of his career. I want him to stay motivated and focused on growing as a player instead of turning into the next Tyler Myers.

Haha, all of the above! I don't know if sleazy is the right word. let's just say that they both have shown signs that they value money above all else... winning, team, etc

you missed one... 4. Skin color I'm joking. Anyway, when do the mug shots hit the press? ...and will he be holding phat stacks yo?

I'd like to think GMTM is better than average at finding talent in the 3rd round, but we just don't know yet. I suppose you could look back at the drafts from 2000-2010, and figure out what the odds are, but you'd also need to have a clear definition of serviceable NHL player. Maybe I'll look into it next week because it's Friday and 96 out, my sister is visiting and I'm sitting by the pool drinking.

On a standard die the general formula for rolling at least one 6 in n rolls is 1 - (5/6)^n. 5/6 meaning 5 of the 6 sides are not a 6. So let's say each 3rd rounder is a 12 sided die, meaning a 3rd pick has an 8.3% of becoming a serviceable NHL player. If you roll a "12" that player becomes an NHL'er, and we have 4 3rd round picks, or "rolls". The probability of landing 1 NHL player out of those 4 picks is.... 1 - (11/12)^4 = 29.4% For 3 picks (rolls) 1 - (11/12)^3 = 22.9% For 12 rolls: 65℅ If you had all 30 picks: 92.6℅

So why didn't they do this to O'Reilly? I don't buy it.

This is my concern as well. GMTM didn't draft Risto, and he has his own ratings system so we don't know what value he places on him. We know he's young, has prototypical size and a great tool set. There is still a lot we don't know about Risto. He's 20, has he plateaued? How much better will he get? You sign him to a 6-8 year deal, what if he turns out to be like a Kalinin who was also a first rounder? A bridge deal makes most sense IMO. Give him time to grow and prove what he's really worth before committing a half-dozen years at a price that he's not playing up to currently.

I really like what Tampa has done. However, I will lower their grade if they move Bishop. I understand he's a pending UFA next season, but IMO he's key to their success. Vasilevsky has promise, but how many times do we see a young tendy start out hot and then fade into obscurity... seems there's at least a couple of those types every season. Bishop when healthy is top 5 in the league, combine that with a healthy Stamkos, an upcoming start in Drouin, and what they have on the blueline, they're my favorite to hoist Lord Stanley's cup next June.

Was it really necessary to cuff him? Is this normal for a misdemeanor? When is his arraignment?

So instead of a 4 sided die, it's a 12 sided die where one side is NHL success. For every 3rd rnd pick you get one roll, where the odds are 8.3% that you get NHL quality. I'd still rather have 4 rolls than 3 + what we know today about Vesey. However, back then maybe somebody tipped off GMTM that Vesey wanted to play with Echel. Knowing now that Vesey and/or his ageags are liars, I highly doubt GMTM would make that same move in retrospect.

It's like a lottery, there are four numbers, each has a... oh nevermind.

So GMTM is just an average GM huh? Does he not have faith in his ability to find hidden gems in the third round? I thought he was had a scouting background? Or look at it this way. They had 4 3rd round picks right? If the odds are 25% , with 4 picks, 1 of the 4 will make the NHL. If my math is correct he basically traded away a guaranteed NHL player for a slim chance at adding an entitled 23 year old with no pro hockey experience. That said I'm OK with the move, I like his aggressiveness. But hindsight ia 20/20,. right? I'm sure if he knew then what he knows now about chicken little Jimmy, he would've kept the pick... and thats OK.

If you're an average GM you only hit 25% of the time. I guess we have an average GM.

we're all in denial

good point. no, they probably won't.

why?

Thanks for clearing that up.

Or just put them back in the draft, which seems more fair. You can bet if that was the case here, Vesey, would've signed with NSH ages ago rather than end up someplace like WPG or EDM. He told them leading up to the deadline that he was in. Then he said he was out, and refused to even meet with them. What a jerk, he wouldn't even give the team that drafted him, in the third round no less, the time of day. NSH/Poile are very well respected arpound the league. They take care of their players and are always contenders. I guess winning just isn't important to little Jimmy.

yeah I see some of his character traits in Vesey... and Matthews for that matter, although Matthews is supremely talented and I don't expect a fall from grace until he signs a long term deal that guarantees him financial security for life. He'll have nothing to play for at that point, eventually getting run out TOR, landing back in the desert and having maybe a few decent years there with Domi and Duclair infront of his hometown fans.

I don't think he's that great of a prospect, and there are red flags wrt his character. A young rebuilding team could do without his baggage.

I don't get why more of these don't go all the way to arbitration... something like 80-90% settle before their hearing.

I haven't attacked his character in a while so here it goes... What makes this more intriguing is that Vesey is a compulsive liar.... OK well maybe not compulsive, but he lied to NSH and what's to stop him from lying to the media, GMTM, Eichel, you, me, anybody for that matter. I won't be suprised if he decides not sign with anybody because he can't be guaranteed a certain jersey number, or locker room stall next to Jack, or his own mini-fridge in the kitchen, etc... He might even quit hockey because he has a Harvard degree and is softer than a warm stick of butter.... ok, well maybe not that soft, but he does need to be coddled like a newborn, which is pretty damned soft IMO. That said.... he's acting like a giant douche and if he signs with Boston I'll be happy.

I don't think this is right. He's on a two-way deal (all ELCs are 2-way), in the Roch he'd make 70k/yr as per his ELC so he would burn a year off his deal... right?