Weave

LOL, Crusader thinks the pro tankers took abuse. You were in the greater majority dude. It came back in spades for the other side. Like standing behind and supporting a son or daughter who made a disappointing life changing decision, I'll cheer this team and support it because it is part of me.

So, what was his reasoning behind this hot take? He had to try to back that up, right?

Ken Hitchcock to his new team: My prediction is, Hitch wins another Stanley Cup.

Maine suddenly becomes interesting to me.

Hell of a ride.

Came for the nuclear head explosions. Left disappointed.

So, the same day the caravan reaches the border, the President announces that he is drawing down the troops. LOL. It never was about immigration. PT Barnum never had this much game. Too bad it backfired on him. Not.

It had to get on a ballot somehow though, no?

Pi?

There used to be a stat tossed around this forum about teams in the playoff picture at the 1/4 mark (IIRC) and their odds of being in the playoffs at the end of the season. The odds were pretty overwhelming IIRC. good teams almost always established that they were good teams by this point in the season. Who remembers what that stat was?

It will be interesting to see how that list changes as we get closer to the deadline.

We know who was drafted around those picks, so we kinda do.

If you use Cullen's 100 game standard you are still looking at draft picks between 15 and 30 having a 61% chance at 100 games with an average expected role of a bottom 6 forward / 3rd pairing defenceman. You can make a very valid argument for trading those at the deadline.

Yeah, I caught that. I think we're both hitting the same point pretty thoroughly.

There is a ton of data that backs the point up. 2nd round plus picks are bargains to use for trade bait.

according to the site I linked over the last 13 seasons the hit rate barely over 25%.

This is frustrating. The reply was 2nds AND 3rds. 15-20% of seconds and 3rds make it. Narrow it to just 2nds and it is pretty much 25%. We were dead on average. (not that it changed my point any) And again, in context of the convo, do we want to give up a 25% shot at a player to get additional help for a playoff run? I do. Assuming the situation warrants it.

1/3 in the 2nd make it. 1 in 4 in the 3rd make it. 1 in 6-10 make it drafted after that. Add college FA's. It adds up.

I didn't say they were without value. I said that they aren't likely to have any more than a cup of coffee in the NHL. And the context of that statement was that I am willing to forego that value in return for a player that can help us in the playoffs. Assuming that playoffs are in the picture for this year.

I didn't pull that number out of my ass. The statistics of NHL success for picks has been well researched, and well discussed here. The reality is, by the middle of the 1st round, the liklihood of spending 2 seasons in the NHL is down to a coin toss, and by the second and third rounds its half of that. Read me;  article discussing liklihood of success rates in different rounds of the NHL draft

No, they aren't. Only 15-20% of them ever make an NHL team. Each team only gets a couple of them every decade that have NHL careers. Bringing in junk was the problem. Expending 2nd and 3rd round picks to bolster the team wasn't.

I think we are seeing the other side of when Foligno was a Sabre and there were moments where we'd say, "welcome to the NHL, rook".

I just went back and looked at Darcy's deadline trade history. There is a handful of 2nd and 3rd round picks that he's moved to upgrade the team for the playoffs. Of those picks, only Clayton Stoner ever became anything. Darcy's history was not doing enough at the deadline, not giving away the farm.

A mid level player is exactly the potential most likely to come from a mid-to-late first round pick, so the trade off is, a mid level player for someone who might become a mid level player 3+ years down the line. Yeah, there are alot of situations where that makes sense. Setting expectations for a young team that is just learning what it might become is very much possibly one of those situations. And as mentioned, the market for a mid level player has been lower than 1st round picks anyway, making the choice even more obvious. I suppose I'll refrain from inspiring another liger meltdown over prospects.