This Doesn't Look Good

[inkman]

Players under contract next year:

 

Spacek------3,475,000

Afinogenov-3,500,000

Hecht--------2,350,000

Lydman-----2,900,000

Connolly----3,000,000

Kotalik-------2,500,000

Miller---------2,500,000

Kalinin-------2,250,000

Tallinder-----2,500,000

Campbell----1,750,000

Pominville-----925,000

Paille-----------760,000

Gaustad-------750,000

Novotny-------450,000

 

Subtotal----29,610,000

 

RFA next year:

(salaries are best guess)

 

Paille-----------950,000

Roy-----------3,000,000

Paetsch------1,250,000

Vanek--------4,000,000

 

Total-------38,810,000

 

Here are the rest of the players that will be on the roster, IMHO. I'll do my best to breakdown those players projected salaries.

 

Forwards needed: (4)

 

Adam Mair-----------750,000

Drew Stafford-------500,000

Clarke MacArthur---625,000

Mark Mancari--------500,000

 

Defenseman needed: (1)

 

Teppo Numminen-2,500,000

 

Goalies Needed

 

Adam Dennis/Adam Berkoel-450,000

 

 

Total: 44,135,000

 

 

 

 

These numbers may be a little off but most of the players under contract are accurate. Unless the Cap goes up 5-10 million dollars I can't see how we can afford either Drury or Briere(barring any trades). Please post your input and clear up any errors I may have made, I'm sure there are some.

[BetweenThePipes00]

Paille will not make more than Pomminstein. Paetsch will not make 67% more than Gaustad. And that might be a bit high for Roy. Numminen will be gone ...

but your point is well taken, keeping one is going to be tough, let alone both.

[inkman]

Paille will not make more than Pomminstein. Paetsch will not make 67% more than Gaustad. And that might be a bit high for Roy. Numminen will be gone ...

but your point is well taken, keeping one is going to be tough, let alone both.

With that taken into consideration, it may make only a 1 or 2 million dollar difference. Not nearly enough to keep Drury or Briere.

[BetweenThePipes00]

With that taken into consideration, it may make only a 1 or 2 million dollar difference. Not nearly enough to keep Drury or Briere.

 

Well he has a 24 man roster there ... without either Drury or Briere ... they began this season carrying 21 ... plus taking Numminen saves $2.5 M right there ... the cap is going to go up to at least $46 or $47M I would think ... take out the bottom two forwards on his list you save a million, Teppo 2.5 ... that's down under $41 million even with the other high estimates ...

[Bmwolf21]

Since most of our younger players coming up are wingers, and if we are planning on keeping both star centers plus Vanek & Max, then you'd probably see a couple wingers moved to clear cap space. I honestly think, all "whipping boy" talk aside, you could see guys like Kotalik and Hecht gone from the forwards, along with Teppo and/or either Kalinin or Lydman gone off the back end. Then you'll have Stafford, Paille, Card/Funk and Paetsch becoming NHL regulars.

 

All this assumes that there are no moves between now and the end of the season.

[nfreeman]

A few points:

 

1. The cap hit for any given year is not the same as the payroll number. Inkman's #s above are the payroll numbers. The cap number is the player's average salary over the life of the contract. Since most of our guys' contracts were structured with escalating annual salaries, the cap hit for most will be less than their payroll numbers. Accordingly, the actual cap hit number for the 13 players under contract next year will be $28.4 million. See http://www3.telus.net/public/dreyes/nhl/ for the breakdown.

 

2. You counted Paille twice -- both under contract next year and as needing a new contract. He is not under contract for next year. $950K might be a little high for him next year (it's a 25% raise for a guy who won't get that much ice time this year) but is probably about right.

 

3. Roy is a good player, but I think his projected salery # is too high. He had 46 points last year and projects to 54 this year. Kotalik the whipping boy projects to 53 points this year (with more goals than Roy) and makes $2 million.

 

4. Vanek's # could either be too high or too low (how's that for a waffle?). It's too high b/c we still have the leverage of him being restricted -- both Ovechkin and Crosby have cap #s that are less than $4 million, and both are significantly better than Vanek. It's too low b/c I can see someone like the Rangers or Flyers offering him $5 million to leave as an RFA and being ready to just give us the draft picks.

 

5. As I've said before, I think Teppo will be back next year. He's playing well, he doesn't look old, there are plenty of defensemen his age in the NHL, he fits our system well, Lindy and Darcy both like him, and I think he likes playing here.

 

6. It's highly likely that both Briere and Drury are going to command $6 million per year. If that happens, I think we will keep one but not both. This, IMHO, is the most likely outcome. However, there is also a real risk that we lose both -- probably about the same probability that we keep both.

 

7. Bottom line: enjoy this season and this team while you can. I think we will spend at or very close to the cap, but it may not be enough to keep everyone.

[Taro T]

A few points:

 

1. The cap hit for any given year is not the same as the payroll number. Inkman's #s above are the payroll numbers. The cap number is the player's average salary over the life of the contract. Since most of our guys' contracts were structured with escalating annual salaries, the cap hit for most will be less than their payroll numbers. Accordingly, the actual cap hit number for the 13 players under contract next year will be $28.4 million. See http://www3.telus.net/public/dreyes/nhl/ for the breakdown.

 

2. You counted Paille twice -- both under contract next year and as needing a new contract. He is not under contract for next year. $950K might be a little high for him next year (it's a 25% raise for a guy who won't get that much ice time this year) but is probably about right.

 

3. Roy is a good player, but I think his projected salery # is too high. He had 46 points last year and projects to 54 this year. Kotalik the whipping boy projects to 53 points this year (with more goals than Roy) and makes $2 million.

 

4. Vanek's # could either be too high or too low (how's that for a waffle?). It's too high b/c we still have the leverage of him being restricted -- both Ovechkin and Crosby have cap #s that are less than $4 million, and both are significantly better than Vanek. It's too low b/c I can see someone like the Rangers or Flyers offering him $5 million to leave as an RFA and being ready to just give us the draft picks.

 

5. As I've said before, I think Teppo will be back next year. He's playing well, he doesn't look old, there are plenty of defensemen his age in the NHL, he fits our system well, Lindy and Darcy both like him, and I think he likes playing here.

 

6. It's highly likely that both Briere and Drury are going to command $6 million per year. If that happens, I think we will keep one but not both. This, IMHO, is the most likely outcome. However, there is also a real risk that we lose both -- probably about the same probability that we keep both.

 

7. Bottom line: enjoy this season and this team while you can. I think we will spend at or very close to the cap, but it may not be enough to keep everyone.

n, good comments.

 

I think Vanek's # is too high, because as you say the Sabres have leverage due to his RFA status. While it is possible that someone will give Vanek a killer contract offer, I doubt the Sabres would match it. Having 2 1st round picks for 4 years would be a huge advantage in a salary capped league. As good as Tom is and will be, I think a team would think long and hard before making a $5MM offer. Even at $4MM, there is a lot of compensation. A place that gets interesting, and that the Sabres probably would match would be $3.999MM.

 

If somehow Briere and Drury both come back, I'd be shocked to see Teppo back unless it was for a significantly reduced salary. If only 1 is back, there is a decent likelihood that Teppo will be back.

[shrader]

Freeman, you can't compare Vanek next year to Ovechkin or Crosby. They'll be in their third and last year of entry level status. There are strict limits on their contracts/incentives.

 

As for the original post, as has been said, Paetch and Roy's figures are way too high. Paetch won't crack the million mark and Roy may top $2 million, but that's doubtful too.

 

I think Teppo will retire, so replace his figure with Sekera at around 800K and that creates even more space.

[BetweenThePipes00]

I think if Teppo is back it will be at a reduced rate ... Dracy came right out and said he felt they paid too much for him this season, and frankly I think he HAS looked old at times. Not horrible, not like he can't play in the league anymore, but like a guy that would be better suited to play 60 games instead of 80 ... and in the cap era on a team like this, you can't pay that guy $2.5 M ...

Whatever the case, I agree it is most likely that they keep Drury or Briere and not both ...

[FogBat]

Do I wait for the fat lady to sing or wait for her to have a case of laryngitis?

 

Synopsis: too many people on this thread are counting their bad chickens before they hatch. Whatever the scenario, there has to be some good that comes out of it.

[inkman]

1. The cap hit for any given year is not the same as the payroll number. Inkman's #s above are the payroll numbers. The cap number is the player's average salary over the life of the contract. Since most of our guys' contracts were structured with escalating annual salaries, the cap hit for most will be less than their payroll numbers. Accordingly, the actual cap hit number for the 13 players under contract next year will be $28.4 million.

 

I thought about this prior to my post and figured the difference was minimal. A 1.2 million dollar difference when the Sabres will need 12-15 million to sign our duo.

 

2. You counted Paille twice -- both under contract next year and as needing a new contract. He is not under contract for next year. $950K might be a little high for him next year (it's a 25% raise for a guy who won't get that much ice time this year) but is probably about right.

 

Thanks. I knew it wasn't perfect and this was a glaring error. :oops: Alright, another million in the bank.

 

3. Roy is a good player, but I think his projected salery # is too high. He had 46 points last year and projects to 54 this year. Kotalik the whipping boy projects to 53 points this year (with more goals than Roy) and makes $2 million.

 

4. Vanek's # could either be too high or too low (how's that for a waffle?). It's too high b/c we still have the leverage of him being restricted -- both Ovechkin and Crosby have cap #s that are less than $4 million, and both are significantly better than Vanek. It's too low b/c I can see someone like the Rangers or Flyers offering him $5 million to leave as an RFA and being ready to just give us the draft picks.

 

I was actually thinking the Sabres would lock these guys up with long term with deals that may not seem market value at this point, but by the end of their deals, they would be bargains. I'm not sure of the possibilities with contract negotiations but if I was Darcy I would sign these guys long term.

 

5. As I've said before, I think Teppo will be back next year. He's playing well, he doesn't look old, there are plenty of defensemen his age in the NHL, he fits our system well, Lindy and Darcy both like him, and I think he likes playing here.

 

I think so too.

 

6. It's highly likely that both Briere and Drury are going to command $6 million per year. If that happens, I think we will keep one but not both. This, IMHO, is the most likely outcome. However, there is also a real risk that we lose both -- probably about the same probability that we keep both.

 

Lecavalier, St. Louis, and Richards are all making 7 million. Drury and Briere's production should be in line with at least 2 of them. I see someone forking out this kind of cash. (See Philly)

 

7. Bottom line: enjoy this season and this team while you can. I think we will spend at or very close to the cap, but it may not be enough to keep everyone.

 

If the Sabres win the cup this year, I see both of them gone. Lindy will slap the "C" firmly on Gaustaud's chest and a new regime will be under way. This works especially well if Connolly can return to full health.

[Eleven]

I see someone forking out this kind of cash. (See Philly)

 

 

Please, not Filly. I'm not sure I could bear that.

[inkman]

Please, not Filly. I'm not sure I could bear that.

What a way to infuse speed talent and leadership into their lineup while making a conference foe weaker. It would be stupid for them not to take a run at one or both of them.

[inkman]

Alright let's take another approach at this, trying to use some of the information provided and correcting the mistakes:

 

Vanek(3.5)-Briere(6.0)-Pominville(1.03)-----10.53

Hecht(2.2)-Drury(5.5)-Paille(0.9)--------------8.6

Afinogenov-(3.33)-Roy(2.33)-Connolly(2.9)-8.56

Mair(0.72)-Gaustad(0.72)-Stafford(0.5)-----1.94

 

Lydman(2.88)-Tallinder(2.56)------------------5.44

Spacek(3.33)-Campbell(1.5)-------------------4.83

Paetsch(0.55)-Kalinin(2.0)----------------------2.55

 

Miller(2.66)-Dennis(0.45)------------------------3.11

 

Extra roster player: Novotny(0.5)--------------0.5

 

Total------------------------------------------------46.06

 

Well, if the Sabres move Kotalik for a draft pick or prospect this could work, I think. As long as the cap does go up to 46 million as rumored to be.

[Taro T]

Alright let's take another approach at this, trying to use some of the information provided and correcting the mistakes:

 

Vanek(3.5)-Briere(6.0)-Pominville(1.03)-----10.53

Hecht(2.2)-Drury(5.5)-Paille(0.9)--------------8.6

Afinogenov-(3.33)-Roy(2.33)-Connolly(2.9)-8.56

Mair(0.72)-Gaustad(0.72)-Stafford(0.5)-----1.94

 

Lydman(2.88)-Tallinder(2.56)------------------5.44

Spacek(3.33)-Campbell(1.5)-------------------4.83

Paetsch(0.55)-Kalinin(2.0)----------------------2.55

 

Miller(2.66)-Dennis(0.45)------------------------3.11

 

Extra roster player: Novotny(0.5)--------------0.5

 

Total------------------------------------------------46.06

 

Well, if the Sabres move Kotalik for a draft pick or prospect this could work, I think. As long as the cap does go up to 46 million as rumored to be.

I was hearing 48 earlier in the year (primarily because the player's cut of the pie will likely go to 55% from 54%), so there would be a LITTLE cap space in that scenario. But, the Sabres will have 7 d on the big squad and I don't know that Drury can be signed for "only" $5.5MM. Guys that are strong defensively, win faceoffs, are natural leaders, and score 40 or so goals (which he'll do this year) are very rare and will likely be expensive. Unfortunately, I don't see him signing for less than $6MM and if he hits the open market he could be a $7-8MM man.

 

Also, not to start PA on another sugar packet rant, but unless the new contracts are fairly heavily weighted toward the future, the actual $'s spent next year will be greater than the salary cap $'s. The Sabres will have some internal cap that MAY (note the word "may", not "will") make their personalized salary cap lower than the league's cap.

[inkman]

Also, not to start PA on another sugar packet rant, but unless the new contracts are fairly heavily weighted toward the future, the actual $'s spent next year will be greater than the salary cap $'s. The Sabres will have some internal cap that MAY (note the word "may", not "will") make their personalized salary cap lower than the league's cap.

Yep, I was counting on this response. My 5.5 million projection is a cap figure and not an actual salary amount. I think a deal that looks like this could get done under the new CBA:

 

year 1 : 5.25

year 2 : 5.50

year 3 : 5.75

year 4 : 6.00

year 5: 6.25

 

A cap hit of 5.75 for each year, but you get my point.

[shrader]

Stafford is signed for the maximum amount (984K). You'll have to add about a half million to those numbers.

[LabattBlue]

 

RFA next year:

(salaries are best guess)

 

Paille-----------950,000

Roy-----------3,000,000

Paetsch------1,250,000

Vanek--------4,000,000

 

Total-------38,810,000

 

AS RFA's, there is no way Roy & Vanek get anywhere near the amounts posted above. Even if Darcy decides to give them 3 year contracts, there is still no way either of them approaches these numbers even after averaging the contract out.

[inkman]

AS RFA's, there is no way Roy & Vanek get anywhere near the amounts posted above. Even if Darcy decides to give them 3 year contracts, there is still no way either of them approaches these numbers even after averaging the contract out.

I revised their numbers. I'm not sure how the negotiations will work. I know under the CBA, RFA are only allowed a certain percentage raise.

[shrader]

I revised their numbers. I'm not sure how the negotiations will work. I know under the CBA, RFA are only allowed a certain percentage raise.

 

The only place any percentage comes into account is for the qualifying offer required to retain the rights of the free agent. There is no limit to how much of a raise a player can get, unless they're still at entry level (<3 years).