Straight Talk: 1st Line: what do Sabres really have on this roster?

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

It's a funny thing but there are always lots of good stats on Sabres teams but there we are, last place with the lowest win percentage in the east. 

It takes more than some improvement on defense to change the team.  Why are we still are the bottom? 
1. Terrible goaltending.  Below average save % overall and 5 in 5 illustrates that despite the improved defense, the goalies are allowing to many goals.  

2.  The offense is down year over year.  Last season we scored 3.28 goals per game, now we are at 2.96.  Injuries are a factor, but our shooting % has fallen from nearly 12% down to just over 10%.  

Our differential last season was -20 for the season.  We are already at -10 for 25 games.   With the goaltending worse and scoring down, this is a worse team than last year despite an incremental improvement on defense.  1 step forward two steps back.  

 

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Adams doesn't add to the top 6, he just switches it up. Cozens out for Norris. Peterka out for Doan. Even if these players are upgrades (no Norris jokes please) how much can 1 guy really do when we aren't talking about McDavid or MacKinnon? The one trade Kevyn Adams cannot and has not completed is trading X, Y, Z for an established top 6 player. Closest we have is Savoie for McLeod.

Shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic?

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It takes more than some improvement on defense to change the team.  Why are we still are the bottom? 
1. Terrible goaltending.  Below average save % overall and 5 in 5 illustrates that despite the improved defense, the goalies are allowing to many goals.  

2.  The offense is down year over year.  Last season we scored 3.28 goals per game, now we are at 2.96.  Injuries are a factor, but our shooting % has fallen from nearly 12% down to just over 10%.  

Our differential last season was -20 for the season.  We are already at -10 for 25 games.   With the goaltending worse and scoring down, this is a worse team than last year despite an incremental improvement on defense.  1 step forward two steps back.  

 

Shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic?

Stats will never give you the answer. 

The difference between winning and losing always comes down to effort at key moment, discipline, good coaching decisions (and a good system), leadership to rise to the occasion, attention to detail so you don't make mistakes, and just the will to give it your all and get it done. None of that will show up in stats on zone time or shooting percentage or goals for or whatever. Those are just interesting overall assessments. What really matters is effort, and effort at key moments. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

18 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Stats will never give you the answer. 

The difference between winning and losing always comes down to effort at key moment, discipline, good coaching decisions (and a good system), leadership to rise to the occasion, attention to detail so you don't make mistakes, and just the will to give it your all and get it done. None of that will show up in stats on zone time or shooting percentage or goals for or whatever. Those are just interesting overall assessments. What really matters is effort, and effort at key moments. 

I think the stats are telling the story pretty well.  This team remains at the bottom of the standings because they don’t score enough and give up to many bad goals.  There are many factors that play into those stats such as coaching and roster construction, but in the end these stats are a reflection of our 3 mediocre goalies and the forwards lack of playmaking skills to create offense.   

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think the stats are telling the story pretty well.  This team remains at the bottom of the standings because they don’t score enough and give up to many bad goals.  There are many factors that play into those stats such as coaching and roster construction, but in the end these stats are a reflection of our 3 mediocre goalies and the forwards lack of playmaking skills to create offense.   

Everything is interconnected though right? We scored a lot of goals one year there for Granato. Weren't we like 3rd or something? Anyway, they were a bad team. They can score in bunches but generally when they have done that it's wide open hockey with bad D. You have them playing D first the goal scoring goes down. That's pretty normal aside from the very very elite who can do both (and then win the cup). 

Would you not agree that for the first time in a long time the roster has the shape of a typical successful team? It is more balanced than it has been with more clearly defined roles. Far from perfect yet and I still think too many puck movers on D and not enough defenders but it's looking more and more like a real hockey team.

The thing that bugs me though is Adams is just content to let this evolve and take as long as it takes. The wealth of young forwards and extra bodies has me thinking armchair GM you can make a 2 for 1 move(s) to make this team even better and make it a real run for the playoffs. If he sits pat I see the real likelihood of another wasted opportunity. 

[LGR4GM]

22 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Stats will never give you the answer. 

The difference between winning and losing always comes down to effort at key moment, discipline, good coaching decisions (and a good system), leadership to rise to the occasion, attention to detail so you don't make mistakes, and just the will to give it your all and get it done. None of that will show up in stats on zone time or shooting percentage or goals for or whatever. Those are just interesting overall assessments. What really matters is effort, and effort at key moments. 

I mean, you didn't even list like 90% of the stats or what they do. There's a fundamental misunderstanding and a deliberate downplaying of what stats are for, by you. 

[JohnC]

On 11/29/2025 at 9:21 PM, Spoonman said:

So, what has KA put together for his NHL roster? 
 

Who would you keep & on what line (if we were a legitimate NHL club)?

I’ll start w 1st liners on this team: 

Forward:

1/ Tage

1/ Norris (if he ever gets & stays healthy?)

Defence:

1/ Dahls

Goal: 

1/ none

Thoughts? 

 

Samuelsson is play at a first pairing level. I would rather have Tage and Norris playing as centers. I don't care which is first or second line center. 

I consider Tuch more of a second line forward but acceptable playing on the first line. Benson is capable of playing as a first line forward. He will get better.

[Ctaeth]

22 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Stats will never give you the answer. 

Wild assertion.  Stats are literally numbers representing how the players performed on the ice 🤦

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, Ctaeth said:

Wild assertion.  Stats are literally numbers representing how the players performed on the ice 🤦

Sometimes the eye test is more informative than the analytics. And sometimes who you are playing with influences the analytics ascribed to you. Stats can be useful and also not reflective of actual performance.

 

[LGR4GM]

31 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Sometimes the eye test is more informative than the analytics. And sometimes who you are playing with influences the analytics ascribed to you. Stats can be useful and also not reflective of actual performance.

 

Yea and sometimes the eye test is total ***** as ppl ascribe things to a player that aren't actually that player. Happens way more than analytics being wrong especially when analytics literally can account for not only linemates but opposition. 

Stats are literally a reflection of actual performance. You're confusing stats with prediction. Stats tell us what happened, not if it will continue. 

[LGR4GM]

Part of the issue here is the assumption you must say a number and that's that. It isn't and never will or should be. It's why almost everyone on this board who uses numbers adds context. The inverse is not true at all. Lots of ppl make claims that aren't backed up by the numbers. 

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I mean, you didn't even list like 90% of the stats or what they do. There's a fundamental misunderstanding and a deliberate downplaying of what stats are for, by you. 

We aren't ever going to agree on stats world and watching hockey in real life world so why do you even want to go there? Just accept me as an old former hockey player who is trapped in old school ideas and I will accept you as a video game raised younger person who has never played the game and thus doesn't fully understand it and we will each go on our way not agreeing with anything the other says. It's much simpler. 

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

Sometimes the eye test is more informative than the analytics. And sometimes who you are playing with influences the analytics ascribed to you. Stats can be useful and also not reflective of actual performance.

 

Agreed. Stats can show you some things you might miss following the puck and you don't always account for every player (especially as the camera follows the puck) but if you know the game the eye test will always tell you most everything you need to know and certainly everything important. Stats are a tool but they are just stats. 

[LGR4GM]

11 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

We aren't ever going to agree on stats world and watching hockey in real life world so why do you even want to go there? Just accept me as an old former hockey player who is trapped in old school ideas and I will accept you as a video game raised younger person who has never played the game and thus doesn't fully understand it and we will each go on our way not agreeing with anything the other says. It's much simpler. 

Because you keep taking shots at stats and you're flat out wrong. I know it's hard for boomers but we're not required to just let you spout whatever and then not counter it with facts. 

Stats literally tell you about things happening on the ice. That's what they do, you wanna argue that they are interpreted incorrectly go for it. 

You don't understand the stats, what they tell us, or even all the ones that exist. I'm not required to also ignore them because of your knowledge gap or to not defend them for the same. 

11 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Agreed. Stats can show you some things you might miss following the puck and you don't always account for every player (especially as the camera follows the puck) but if you know the game the eye test will always tell you most everything you need to know and certainly everything important. Stats are a tool but they are just stats. 

There is so much evidence the eye test doesn't tell you everything. Let alone before we introduce bias into the eye test. Eye test is tool, subject to the whims of the watcher.

[PerreaultForever]

15 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Because you keep taking shots at stats and you're flat out wrong. I know it's hard for boomers but we're not required to just let you spout whatever and then not counter it with facts. 

Stats literally tell you about things happening on the ice. That's what they do, you wanna argue that they are interpreted incorrectly go for it. 

You don't understand the stats, what they tell us, or even all the ones that exist. I'm not required to also ignore them because of your knowledge gap or to not defend them for the same. 

There is so much evidence the eye test doesn't tell you everything. Let alone before we introduce bias into the eye test. Eye test is tool, subject to the whims of the watcher.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying YOU need to ignore stats. You do you. I'm just saying stop trying to convert me to your world view. We will never agree and you can throw boomer around as a faux insult or whatever else makes you happy but it's pointless. We see the game differently and always will. You do you, but also let me be me. 

[JP51]

Straight talk... this is what I see... 

- Moderate talent level overall on this team...  1 Generational Player in Dahlin, 1 top line forward in Thompson, 2 Marginal Top line forward in Tuch and Norris who has injury issues. 

- Leadership who is it, who is the one that demands and holds people accountable... Veteran leadership is below average... talent mixed with toughness is about non existent... Doan may be the only one who I would consider a top 6 talent with the commensurate toughness... Tuch maybe a little...  Dahlin is forced to be superman and be all of this... leaving me concerned for him. 

- A few up and comers, Doan in particular... Loved him before I even saw him play for us... after that... I struggle to see the next up and comer that will take us to a new level... Benson... maybe... hurt... 0 goals in 14 games... small but cant beat his attitude. Kulik, Rosen, Ostland etc.. fair pretty well... but I am not seeing them as players that are ready to lead a charge if ever... 

- Defense lb for lb the softest most uninspired lazy defense I have ever seen...  Like I have no idea what do even do here... 

- Goaltending we are desperately trying to love us some somebody in net... we vacillate between Lyon and Ellis but really don't feel like we have seen enough to commit to a long term relationship... we all do agree that Ukka Peka Loseannin isnt girlfriend/boyfriend material...  like we may take him to a wedding if we had to have a date... but nothin happening here... 

3/4th line - some moderately tough players but clearly struggle to contribute offensively and are a defensive liability with some of the worst plus/minus on the team... looking at Greenway in particular who is a minus 7 after 13 games and limited minutes... 

- FO/ownership - They are worse than incompetent... like if you were incompetent and knew you were that's really bad... But if you are totally incompetent and see yourself as an affronted misunderstood genius and generally disdained those that criticized you and had literally no idea you were completely out of your league... that's a whole other level of dangerous.... 

 

Bottom line, the overall talent on this team is not great but more moderate nor does it possess the mix of talent/toughness the game requires.  The talent is mostly concentrated into one generational player who literally has to be the Josh Allen superman every game... the rest is a limited cornucopia of forwards that would likely be 2nd or 3rd line players on real teams with highly limited toughness and leadership ability...  The up and coming players with the exception of Doan are of the same soft ilk...  The defense is going to gather to take a picture to be used on a package of Charmin to illustrate what softness is...  Goaltending problems are still there and the FO is incapable of fixing anything... to the point I am not sure they even see a problem.. 

 

 

 

Edited Thursday at 05:11 PM by JP51

[Taro T]

37 minutes ago, JP51 said:

Straight talk... this is what I see... 

- Moderate talent level overall on this team...  1 Generational Player in Dahlin, 1 top line forward in Thompson, 2 Marginal Top line forward in Tuch and Norris who has injury issues. 

- Leadership who is it, who is the one that demands and holds people accountable... Veteran leadership is below average... talent mixed with toughness is about non existent... Doan may be the only one who I would consider a top 6 talent with the commensurate toughness... Tuch maybe a little...  Dahlin is forced to be superman and be all of this... leaving me concerned for him. 

- A few up and comers, Doan in particular... Loved him before I even saw him play for us... after that... I struggle to see the next up and comer that will take us to a new level... Benson... maybe... hurt... 0 goals in 14 games... small but cant beat his attitude. Kulik, Rosen, Ostland etc.. fair pretty well... but I am not seeing them as players that are ready to lead a charge if ever... 

- Defense lb for lb the softest most uninspired lazy defense I have ever seen...  Like I have no idea what do even do here... 

- Goaltending we are desperately trying to love us some somebody in net... we vacillate between Lyon and Ellis but really don't feel like we have seen enough to commit to a long term relationship... we all do agree that Ukka Peka Loseannin isnt girlfriend/boyfriend material...  like we may take him to a wedding if we had to have a date... but nothin happening here... 

3/4th line - some moderately tough players but clearly struggle to contribute offensively and are a defensive liability with some of the worst plus/minus on the team... looking at Greenway in particular who is a minus 7 after 13 games and limited minutes... 

- FO/ownership - They are worse than incompetent... like if you were incompetent and knew you were that's really bad... But if you are totally incompetent and see yourself as an affronted misunderstood genius and generally disdained those that criticized you and had literally no idea you were completely out of your league... that's a whole other level of dangerous.... 

 

Bottom line, the overall talent on this team is not great but more moderate nor does it possess the mix of talent/toughness the game requires.  The talent is mostly concentrated into one generational player who literally has to be the Josh Allen superman every game... the rest is a limited cornucopia of forwards that would likely be 2nd or 3rd line players on real teams with highly limited toughness and leadership ability...  The up and coming players with the exception of Doan are of the same soft ilk...  The defense is going to gather to take a picture to be used on a package of Charmin to illustrate what softness is...  Goaltending problems are still there and the FO is incapable of fixing anything... to the point I am not sure they even see a problem.. 

 

 

 

This assessment is quite fair.  

The killer is, if you swap having 1 really good (like able to be in end of season awards conversations if the team had better coaching and could get into the mix of playoff teams) D-man and lots of Q's at G with having 1 really good G and lots of Q's at D; you'd be describing fairly accurately what the team was back when the current owner bought it excepting for the fact that the FO at that time had gotten the team to at least the semis on 4 occassions in about 16 years which was light years ahead of what their successors have done.

So, 13 years have been thrown away to be exactly where they were when they decided to tank for a generational player who'd be available in the draft after the 2nd year of the tank.  Kids that weren't alive when the decision to tank was made are now teenagers and there is not one single thing to show for having done so all so many years ago.

[pi2000]

Your top guys, Dahiln and Thompson, need to be at the top of this list... not the bottom.
 

==============================================================
BUF even strength goal differential through 27 games = -17
BUF even strength minutes played through 27 games = 1364.21
exp+/- is a function of %min played at ES and team ES goal diff
TRpm(team relative +/-) is the diff btwn actual+/- and exp+/-
%min is % of ES minutes played
==============================================================
Team  Player                   TRpm    GP   +/-   exp+/-  %min
BUF Mattias Samuelsson        11.89    25     6   -5.89   34.6
BUF Alex Tuch                  7.74    27     3   -4.74   27.9
BUF Noah Östlund               4.76    19     2   -2.76   16.2
BUF Zach Benson                4.45    14     2   -2.45   14.4
BUF Ryan McLeod                2.65    27    -2   -4.65   27.3
BUF Jacob Bryson               1.37    17    -1   -2.37   14.0
BUF Owen Power                 0.61    26    -5   -5.61   33.0
BUF Josh Doan                  0.36    27    -4   -4.36   25.6
BUF Bowen Byram                0.17    27    -6   -6.17   36.3
BUF Tyson Kozak               -0.30    19    -3   -2.70   15.9
BUF Isak Rosen                -0.46    10    -2   -1.54    9.1
BUF Mason Geertsen            -0.74     5    -1   -0.26    1.5
BUF Jack Quinn                -1.36    27    -6   -4.64   27.3
BUF Michael Kesselring        -1.39     9    -3   -1.61    9.5
BUF Jiri Kulich               -1.80    12    -4   -2.20   12.9
BUF Beck Malenstyn            -1.93    26    -5   -3.07   18.1
BUF Rasmus Dahlin             -2.02    24    -8   -5.98   35.2
BUF Conor Timmins             -2.53    27    -8   -5.47   32.2
BUF Tage Thompson             -2.94    27    -8   -5.06   29.8
BUF Jason Zucker              -4.12    19    -7   -2.88   16.9
BUF Peyton Krebs              -4.60    27    -9   -4.40   25.9
BUF Jordan Greenway           -4.98    13    -7   -2.02   11.9
==============================================================

 

[LGR4GM]

On 12/4/2025 at 2:14 PM, pi2000 said:

Your top guys, Dahiln and Thompson, need to be at the top of this list... not the bottom.
 

==============================================================
BUF even strength goal differential through 27 games = -17
BUF even strength minutes played through 27 games = 1364.21
exp+/- is a function of %min played at ES and team ES goal diff
TRpm(team relative +/-) is the diff btwn actual+/- and exp+/-
%min is % of ES minutes played
==============================================================
Team  Player                   TRpm    GP   +/-   exp+/-  %min
BUF Mattias Samuelsson        11.89    25     6   -5.89   34.6
BUF Alex Tuch                  7.74    27     3   -4.74   27.9
BUF Noah Östlund               4.76    19     2   -2.76   16.2
BUF Zach Benson                4.45    14     2   -2.45   14.4
BUF Ryan McLeod                2.65    27    -2   -4.65   27.3
BUF Jacob Bryson               1.37    17    -1   -2.37   14.0
BUF Owen Power                 0.61    26    -5   -5.61   33.0
BUF Josh Doan                  0.36    27    -4   -4.36   25.6
BUF Bowen Byram                0.17    27    -6   -6.17   36.3
BUF Tyson Kozak               -0.30    19    -3   -2.70   15.9
BUF Isak Rosen                -0.46    10    -2   -1.54    9.1
BUF Mason Geertsen            -0.74     5    -1   -0.26    1.5
BUF Jack Quinn                -1.36    27    -6   -4.64   27.3
BUF Michael Kesselring        -1.39     9    -3   -1.61    9.5
BUF Jiri Kulich               -1.80    12    -4   -2.20   12.9
BUF Beck Malenstyn            -1.93    26    -5   -3.07   18.1
BUF Rasmus Dahlin             -2.02    24    -8   -5.98   35.2
BUF Conor Timmins             -2.53    27    -8   -5.47   32.2
BUF Tage Thompson             -2.94    27    -8   -5.06   29.8
BUF Jason Zucker              -4.12    19    -7   -2.88   16.9
BUF Peyton Krebs              -4.60    27    -9   -4.40   25.9
BUF Jordan Greenway           -4.98    13    -7   -2.02   11.9
==============================================================

 

They signed Greenway for 2 years, two.

[PerreaultForever]

On 12/4/2025 at 8:37 AM, JP51 said:

Straight talk... this is what I see... 

- Moderate talent level overall on this team...  1 Generational Player in Dahlin, 1 top line forward in Thompson, 2 Marginal Top line forward in Tuch and Norris who has injury issues. 

- Leadership who is it, who is the one that demands and holds people accountable... Veteran leadership is below average... talent mixed with toughness is about non existent... Doan may be the only one who I would consider a top 6 talent with the commensurate toughness... Tuch maybe a little...  Dahlin is forced to be superman and be all of this... leaving me concerned for him. 

- A few up and comers, Doan in particular... Loved him before I even saw him play for us... after that... I struggle to see the next up and comer that will take us to a new level... Benson... maybe... hurt... 0 goals in 14 games... small but cant beat his attitude. Kulik, Rosen, Ostland etc.. fair pretty well... but I am not seeing them as players that are ready to lead a charge if ever... 

- Defense lb for lb the softest most uninspired lazy defense I have ever seen...  Like I have no idea what do even do here... 

- Goaltending we are desperately trying to love us some somebody in net... we vacillate between Lyon and Ellis but really don't feel like we have seen enough to commit to a long term relationship... we all do agree that Ukka Peka Loseannin isnt girlfriend/boyfriend material...  like we may take him to a wedding if we had to have a date... but nothin happening here... 

3/4th line - some moderately tough players but clearly struggle to contribute offensively and are a defensive liability with some of the worst plus/minus on the team... looking at Greenway in particular who is a minus 7 after 13 games and limited minutes... 

- FO/ownership - They are worse than incompetent... like if you were incompetent and knew you were that's really bad... But if you are totally incompetent and see yourself as an affronted misunderstood genius and generally disdained those that criticized you and had literally no idea you were completely out of your league... that's a whole other level of dangerous.... 

 

Bottom line, the overall talent on this team is not great but more moderate nor does it possess the mix of talent/toughness the game requires.  The talent is mostly concentrated into one generational player who literally has to be the Josh Allen superman every game... the rest is a limited cornucopia of forwards that would likely be 2nd or 3rd line players on real teams with highly limited toughness and leadership ability...  The up and coming players with the exception of Doan are of the same soft ilk...  The defense is going to gather to take a picture to be used on a package of Charmin to illustrate what softness is...  Goaltending problems are still there and the FO is incapable of fixing anything... to the point I am not sure they even see a problem.. 

 

 

 

For me, although the  trade is arguably even or maybe a win (hard to say since Kesselring is always injured) Adams biggest failure was not getting a solid veteran top 6 forward to play top minutes for Peterka. They were 1 forward away and they are still 1 forward away and as such players play above their level and when injuries hit things are all over the place. For me, you'd have a better team (a much better team) if your healthy line up was more like this:

Veteran winger - Thompson - Tuch

Zucker - Norris - Doan

Benson - McLeod - Quinn/Kulich (whichever plays a better 2 way game)

Dunn-Kozak-Malentstyn

(couldn't care less what happens to Greenway or Krebs but I guess they are your depth forwards and Danforth is irrelevant)

Part of the issue is Quinn has not stepped up to become a good top 6 forward and Benson is still young and developing. Some will argue give it time, but that's the forever argument with them isn't it?

To win now they needed that top veteran winger and instead they choose to wait and develop internally and thus we wait, and wait, and wait some more until the next guy leaves and then we wait again. 

[DarthEbriate]

9 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

To win now they needed that top veteran winger and instead they choose to wait and develop internally and thus we wait, and wait, and wait some more until the next guy leaves and then we wait again. 

And they've needed that second top-line guy for several seasons.

If the current Sabres regime remains in power, and provided they throw enough money at him and doesn't go JJP, just take Tuch off the top line and replace him with Doan. (Which opens the spot for Rosén in the top 6.) Rinse and repeat.

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

And they've needed that second top-line guy for several seasons.

If the current Sabres regime remains in power, and provided they throw enough money at him and doesn't go JJP, just take Tuch off the top line and replace him with Doan. (Which opens the spot for Rosén in the top 6.) Rinse and repeat.

I think Tuch is still the best winger on this team (I'm couting Tage as a part time center/winger). The team would be worse without him. He's one of the top 25 wingers in the leauge to me RIGHT NOW.

But I think he is starting to show the very first hints of 'aging past his prime'.

Unless you are a mega superstar (and even some cases with them), we know that MOST forwards (and the averages in the numbers show this) have their peak offense production years between the ages of 24-28.  Yeah, some guys hang on to that high level a bit better than others, but once you get to 29-30, your best years are usually behind you (just what the numbers say).  This isn't to say they can't have a great/bounce back year once or twice past 30, but normally production has already peaked.

So how does this relate to Tuch?

Hes 29 now. If the Sabres made the playoffs he woudl be 30 during this years playoffs.  The FIRST year of any new contract for him has turning 31 at the end of year 1 of that deal.

-Its only 1/4 season, but to my eye, he seems to be having more 'lapses' where he makes bad plays. A handful of more games compared to the last few years where he's just not as noticable.  Not much, but enough to notice.

-His numbers: Over the last 3 previous seasons, he averaged 33.4 goals per 82 games and +13.8 per 82 on a negative team. This year, his 82 game pace is 26.3 goals and a +2.9.  Not a huge drop, but noticable.  

His PP numbers are dropping. The last few years he went from 20 PP points, to 11 PP points, to 11 PP points again, and now hes on a pace for 5.8pp points.

-His ice time is down. He hasn't been injured this year, but he has the lowest average ice time this year of any other year (or partial year) since he has been in Buffalo.

Now for the actual skill based numbers (and remember, he seems to be healthier this year than in the past):

His shot speed:  93.4 his first year with the Sabres. Down to 89.2 and 89.7 the past 2 years. This year?  85.1

Top skaing speed: 23.2 mph 3 years ago (when he was 26).....23mph 2 years ago (when he was 27)....22.6mph last year (when he was 28)....and now this year 21.83 this year.  In terms of MPH, a drop of more than 1mph is a LOT in the NHL.  He is losing speed, that is 100% true.

How about his skating "speed bursts over 20mph"?  This year 1.25 per game (at age 29).  How does that compare to the most recent years? 1.75 per game last year (age 28), and 2.36 per game the previous 2 years (since he was with the Sabres, ages 26-27)

-Tuch relies SO MUCH on his speed and skating. His shorthanded breakaway goals. His forchecking (which is the best part of his game). As he loses skating speed, that is going to impact the best part of his game the most. Its staring to happen now. Its only going to get worse as he gets older.

Again...Hes 29, going on 30 this season. The FIRST year of any new contract for him has turning 31 at the end of year 1 of that deal.

This is not to say he's not one of the better players on the team.  But the 'eye test' to me says his game is SLIGHTLY off compared to the past (just slighly), and the more you dig into the numbers, especially his skating, it shows you those numbers are, without a doubt, on a downward trend already.  For me it further reinforces that I'd like him back here, but not on a big dollar, long term deal.  

His "raw skill" numbers in terms of top speed, how often he uses his speed, and his shot are already in clear decline.  The production is showing signs of a decline, as are his deeper analytics.

If, and I realize this is an "if", the recent trends in his skating and production continue, you might be regretting a $10m+ deal with Tuch...not in 5 to 6 years from now, but possibly in year 2 of the extension.

Edited 11 hours ago by mjd1001

[quill]

On 11/30/2025 at 12:16 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Is this news to anyone that the Sabres lack high end players?

How can a team that gets more than their share of high draft picks not have high end players? The Sabres don't lack high end players. We have talent. The trouble is that being a high end player doesn't mean a thing if they don't perform to the best of their ability collectively as a group or for whatever reason they are not performing. That, combined with the fact that when it comes to high end players that produce, and picking the right kinds of grinders to compliment those players, or getting us a goalie who can make the big save, this GM consistently fails. Add to that the fact that this coaching staff has yet to accomplish anything with this team and it's a formula for disaster. Anyway, I think we do have high end players, just that some of them don't even need to take a shower after the game.

[Spoonman]

[EM88]

18 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I think Tuch is still the best winger on this team (I'm couting Tage as a part time center/winger). The team would be worse without him. He's one of the top 25 wingers in the leauge to me RIGHT NOW.

But I think he is starting to show the very first hints of 'aging past his prime'.

Unless you are a mega superstar (and even some cases with them), we know that MOST forwards (and the averages in the numbers show this) have their peak offense production years between the ages of 24-28.  Yeah, some guys hang on to that high level a bit better than others, but once you get to 29-30, your best years are usually behind you (just what the numbers say).  This isn't to say they can't have a great/bounce back year once or twice past 30, but normally production has already peaked.

So how does this relate to Tuch?

Hes 29 now. If the Sabres made the playoffs he woudl be 30 during this years playoffs.  The FIRST year of any new contract for him has turning 31 at the end of year 1 of that deal.

-Its only 1/4 season, but to my eye, he seems to be having more 'lapses' where he makes bad plays. A handful of more games compared to the last few years where he's just not as noticable.  Not much, but enough to notice.

-His numbers: Over the last 3 previous seasons, he averaged 33.4 goals per 82 games and +13.8 per 82 on a negative team. This year, his 82 game pace is 26.3 goals and a +2.9.  Not a huge drop, but noticable.  

His PP numbers are dropping. The last few years he went from 20 PP points, to 11 PP points, to 11 PP points again, and now hes on a pace for 5.8pp points.

-His goal numbers are down slightly this year but his assist numbers are up slightly.  Maybe this is a reach, but when players start to get older, often times their goal numbers drop and INITIALLY their assists go up slightly for a year or two.  

-His ice time is down. He hasn't been injured this year, but he has the lowest average ice time this year of any other year (or partial year) since he has been in Buffalo.

Now for the actuall skill based numbers (and remember, he seems to be healthier this year than in the past):

His shot speed:  93.4 his first year with the Sabres. Down to 89.2 and 89.7 the past 2 years. This year?  85.1

Top skaing speed: 23.2 mph 3 years ago (when he was 26).....23mph 2 years ago (when he was 27)....22.6mph last year (when he was 28)....and now this year 21.83 this year.  In terms of MPH, a drop of more than 1mph is a LOT in the NHL.  He is losing speed, that is 100% true.

How about his skating "speed bursts over 20mph"?  This year 1.25 per game (at age 29).  How does that compare to the most recent years? 1.75 per game last year (age 28), and 2.36 per game the previous 2 years (since he was with the Sabres, ages 26-27)

Again...Hes 29, going on 30 this season. The FIRST year of any new contract for him has turning 31 at the end of year 1 of that deal.

This is not to say he's not one of the better players on the team.  But the 'eye test' to me says his game is SLIGHTLY off compared to the past (just slighly), and the more you dig into the numbers, especially his skating, it shows you those numbers are, without a doubt, on a downward trend already.  For me it further reinforces that I'd like him back here, but not on a big dollar, long term deal.  

His "raw skill" numbers in terms of top speed, how often he uses his speed, and his shot are already in clear decline.  The production is showing signs of a decline, as are his deeper analytics.

If, and I realize this is an "if", the recent trends in his skating and production continue, you might be regretting a $10m+ deal with Tuch...not in 5 to 6 years from now, but possibly in year 2 of the extension.

The numbers are screaming that the Sabres have a guy who is going to be 30 very soon. Who is getting slower by the year each year for the last 4 seasons. Who has a shot that is losing power and speed by the year each and every year for the last 4 seasons. Who this year has even has a slightly declining scoring pace.

It sounds just about right that this management group heading the Sabres is going to try to sign him a a massive, cap-eating contract that will hinder them for most of the next decade.

 

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

I think Tuch is still the best winger on this team (I'm couting Tage as a part time center/winger). The team would be worse without him. He's one of the top 25 wingers in the leauge to me RIGHT NOW.

But I think he is starting to show the very first hints of 'aging past his prime'.

Unless you are a mega superstar (and even some cases with them), we know that MOST forwards (and the averages in the numbers show this) have their peak offense production years between the ages of 24-28.  Yeah, some guys hang on to that high level a bit better than others, but once you get to 29-30, your best years are usually behind you (just what the numbers say).  This isn't to say they can't have a great/bounce back year once or twice past 30, but normally production has already peaked.

So how does this relate to Tuch?

Hes 29 now. If the Sabres made the playoffs he woudl be 30 during this years playoffs.  The FIRST year of any new contract for him has turning 31 at the end of year 1 of that deal.

-Its only 1/4 season, but to my eye, he seems to be having more 'lapses' where he makes bad plays. A handful of more games compared to the last few years where he's just not as noticable.  Not much, but enough to notice.

-His numbers: Over the last 3 previous seasons, he averaged 33.4 goals per 82 games and +13.8 per 82 on a negative team. This year, his 82 game pace is 26.3 goals and a +2.9.  Not a huge drop, but noticable.  

His PP numbers are dropping. The last few years he went from 20 PP points, to 11 PP points, to 11 PP points again, and now hes on a pace for 5.8pp points.

-His ice time is down. He hasn't been injured this year, but he has the lowest average ice time this year of any other year (or partial year) since he has been in Buffalo.

Now for the actual skill based numbers (and remember, he seems to be healthier this year than in the past):

His shot speed:  93.4 his first year with the Sabres. Down to 89.2 and 89.7 the past 2 years. This year?  85.1

Top skaing speed: 23.2 mph 3 years ago (when he was 26).....23mph 2 years ago (when he was 27)....22.6mph last year (when he was 28)....and now this year 21.83 this year.  In terms of MPH, a drop of more than 1mph is a LOT in the NHL.  He is losing speed, that is 100% true.

How about his skating "speed bursts over 20mph"?  This year 1.25 per game (at age 29).  How does that compare to the most recent years? 1.75 per game last year (age 28), and 2.36 per game the previous 2 years (since he was with the Sabres, ages 26-27)

-Tuch relies SO MUCH on his speed and skating. His shorthanded breakaway goals. His forchecking (which is the best part of his game). As he loses skating speed, that is going to impact the best part of his game the most. Its staring to happen now. Its only going to get worse as he gets older.

Again...Hes 29, going on 30 this season. The FIRST year of any new contract for him has turning 31 at the end of year 1 of that deal.

This is not to say he's not one of the better players on the team.  But the 'eye test' to me says his game is SLIGHTLY off compared to the past (just slighly), and the more you dig into the numbers, especially his skating, it shows you those numbers are, without a doubt, on a downward trend already.  For me it further reinforces that I'd like him back here, but not on a big dollar, long term deal.  

His "raw skill" numbers in terms of top speed, how often he uses his speed, and his shot are already in clear decline.  The production is showing signs of a decline, as are his deeper analytics.

If, and I realize this is an "if", the recent trends in his skating and production continue, you might be regretting a $10m+ deal with Tuch...not in 5 to 6 years from now, but possibly in year 2 of the extension.

I am a Tuch fan.   

This is the best assessment of him I have read here.  I myself could not come up with all the data that backs your assessment.  By so many measures he one of the better player on this team.  

Of course I am disappointed in his recent two bad turnovers that both led to goals against.   Despite those mistakes,  @pi2000 just put up some stats (TRpm and +/-) that shows Tuch is still one of the better players on the team.  

All that said, Tuch is almost 30 and going forward  will have to rely more on experience and vet savvy than speed.  He strikes me as a guy that will figure this out and still be a key contributor for several years to come.  

He left one of the best teams in the league to play for the home town team and has been a good soldier.   But right now Tuch should be asking for a trade, not a long term extension.  I think this next big life change that he is facing is a distraction for him.   A poor GM like Adams let this negotiation go for too long and Adams faces getting less for him or overpaying to keep him.  .  

He can go to any contending team and play middle 6, still score 25+ goals, still kill penalties, and enjoy the game.  He should be asking to go and I hate to say it, but this team is still miles away from contending for a Cup.  Just getting the 7/8 spot  in the conference is not close to getting to the top 4-6 teams in the league.  

I just wish we had a GM that could either get the right value for him or sign for just 2-3 year extension - But we have Adams.