JoeSchmoe Posted yesterday at 09:51 PM Report Posted yesterday at 09:51 PM Kulich Thompson Tuch Benson Norris Quinn Zucker McLeod Doan Greenway Krebs Malenstyn By the end of the season, I'm hoping Östlund or Helenius can step into a 2nd or 3rd line role and demote the vets down. Not likely to happen though. Quote
JohnC Posted 22 hours ago Report Posted 22 hours ago 2 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said: Kulich Thompson Tuch Benson Norris Quinn Zucker McLeod Doan Greenway Krebs Malenstyn By the end of the season, I'm hoping Östlund or Helenius can step into a 2nd or 3rd line role and demote the vets down. Not likely to happen though. Bringing in young players from Rochester to replace vets on an already young roster will continue plaguing this roster i.e. inexperience. Let the upcoming young players continue maturing in the lower league so when they do move to the next level they will be better prepared. 1 Quote
JoeSchmoe Posted 22 hours ago Report Posted 22 hours ago 10 minutes ago, JohnC said: Bringing in young players from Rochester to replace vets on an already young roster will continue plaguing this roster i.e. inexperience. Let the upcoming young players continue maturing in the lower league so when they do move to the next level they will be better prepared. I agree, but I'm just hoping one of them will be far above a PPG and showing themselves better off in the NHL. Unlikely I know, but this is hope season! Quote
JohnC Posted 21 hours ago Report Posted 21 hours ago 36 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said: I agree, but I'm just hoping one of them will be far above a PPG and showing themselves better off in the NHL. Unlikely I know, but this is hope season! The advantaged of staying longer in the lower league is that the prospects will be playing higher roles and more minutes than if they were more quickly brought up. That extra ice time will accelerate their development even more than if they played limited minutes with lesser roles with the big club. When you watch some of the young developing players play against experienced NHL men players you can see the contrast when boys play against men. Quote
oddoublee Posted 19 hours ago Report Posted 19 hours ago 4 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said: Kulich Thompson Tuch Benson Norris Quinn Zucker McLeod Doan Greenway Krebs Malenstyn By the end of the season, I'm hoping Östlund or Helenius can step into a 2nd or 3rd line role and demote the vets down. Not likely to happen though. Oof...not a playoff team there... 1 Quote
PerreaultForever Posted 18 hours ago Report Posted 18 hours ago (edited) 6 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said: Kulich Thompson Tuch Benson Norris Quinn Zucker McLeod Doan Greenway Krebs Malenstyn By the end of the season, I'm hoping Östlund or Helenius can step into a 2nd or 3rd line role and demote the vets down. Not likely to happen though. It's not good enough but I'm currently thinking: Zucker - Norris - Thompson Greenway - Kulich - Tuch Benson - McLeod - Quinn Doan - Krebs - Malenstyn The idea being mixing veterans not developed in the Sabres system with youngsters and Sabres who just don't get it yet. It's not good enough but it's best I can come up with and of course it all falls apart when Greenway, Norris, Zucker all get injured. Edited 18 hours ago by PerreaultForever Quote
JohnC Posted 10 hours ago Report Posted 10 hours ago 7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said: It's not good enough but I'm currently thinking: Zucker - Norris - Thompson Greenway - Kulich - Tuch Benson - McLeod - Quinn Doan - Krebs - Malenstyn The idea being mixing veterans not developed in the Sabres system with youngsters and Sabres who just don't get it yet. It's not good enough but it's best I can come up with and of course it all falls apart when Greenway, Norris, Zucker all get injured. The Sabres just don’t have the depth to absorb injuries that is required when the inevitable injuries happen. And when a critical player such as Dahlin is sidelined, there is a cave in. Regarding your projected lineup, I would prefer Norris in the 2C spot and Tage in the 1C spot. I see Greenway more as a third or fourth line player. It’s going to be interesting to see how Ruff assembles the lines. I expect a lot of experimentation and jumbling of the lines in the beginning of the season. Quote
LGR4GM Posted 9 hours ago Report Posted 9 hours ago 8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said: It's not good enough but I'm currently thinking: Zucker - Norris - Thompson Greenway - Kulich - Tuch Benson - McLeod - Quinn Doan - Krebs - Malenstyn The idea being mixing veterans not developed in the Sabres system with youngsters and Sabres who just don't get it yet. It's not good enough but it's best I can come up with and of course it all falls apart when Greenway, Norris, Zucker all get injured. Greenway isn't a top 6 player. Quote
Drag0nDan Posted 8 hours ago Report Posted 8 hours ago I'll take a stab... Benson - Norris - Thompson Zucker - Kulich - Tuch Doan - Mcleod - Quinn Greenway - Krebs - Danforth Byram - Dahlin Power - Kesselring Samuelsson - Timmins Extra skaters - malenstyn and bryson If/when norris goes down i'd probably bump everyone up a line and shift tage to C. I don't think you should bring rosen up to play with krebs/greenway for 8 minutes a night. If there's an extended absence i'd say bring rosen up and find a place for him in the top 9. Ideally rosen (whos played almost 200 AHL games and was close to a PPG player there last year), just makes the roster outright and forces their hand re: danforth/malenstyn. In that scenario where he plays his way onto the roster - i'd imagine he has to fit in the top 9, which would shift doan down. Quote
Weave Posted 8 hours ago Report Posted 8 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said: Ideally rosen (whos played almost 200 AHL games and was close to a PPG player there last year), just makes the roster outright and forces their hand re: danforth/malenstyn. In that scenario where he plays his way onto the roster - i'd imagine he has to fit in the top 9, which would shift doan down. I don’t see how further enyoungifying the roster is in any way ideal. Ideally, Rosen has a great start to the season in the AHL and some other team that isn’t in win now mode wants him in exchange for a good middle 6 veteran. Quote
Drag0nDan Posted 7 hours ago Report Posted 7 hours ago (edited) 12 minutes ago, Weave said: I don’t see how further enyoungifying the roster is in any way ideal. Ideally, Rosen has a great start to the season in the AHL and some other team that isn’t in win now mode wants him in exchange for a good middle 6 veteran. I do see what you're saying - inexperience is one of the biggest issues. I'm more saying if he plays well enough that the decisions kind of made for you. Same with Levi. Were through FA and the draft and nothing happened so it's hard to imagine Adams doing anything now. It's less - oh we are terrible so we should bring up the kids. It's more about giving the team what you think is the best chance to win games today. Nothing's permanent either, and people will get injured. Or play bad. I don't think i need to see 75 more malenstyn games this year if he doesn't play better. If UPL starts terribly... do we wait weeks for him to try and figure it out? Edited 7 hours ago by Drag0nDan Quote
Wyldnwoody44 Posted 7 hours ago Report Posted 7 hours ago Man, I really want to get into the lineups, normally by this part of the off season I am partaking in some thought experiments. But I cannot get there this year. I simply think that it doesn't matter what happens with the line combos. Ain't no way to rearrange these lines to achieve more than 86 points max. 1 Quote
dudacek Posted 7 hours ago Author Report Posted 7 hours ago There's a real doubt around here that — well, not exactly that the kids will never get better, but that they won't get better now. Peterka jumped from 50 points to 68 after 159 NHL games Dahlin from 23 to 53 (and -36 to -22) after 197 Dahlin from 53 to 73 (and -22 to +12) after 275 Cozens from 38 to 68 after 120 Thompson from 14 to 68 after 145 Thompson from 68 to 94 after 223 Mittelstadt from 19 to 59 after 187 McLeod from 30 to 53 after 219 The above isn't unusual for young players. Byram, Power, Kesselring, Mule, Quinn, Benson are all at that approximate window. I'd be surprised if a few of them don't pop this year. The only real argument I see against it is 'because Buffalo" Quote
Wyldnwoody44 Posted 6 hours ago Report Posted 6 hours ago 42 minutes ago, dudacek said: There's a real doubt around here that — well, not exactly that the kids will never get better, but that they won't get better now. Peterka jumped from 50 points to 68 after 159 NHL games Dahlin from 23 to 53 (and -36 to -22) after 197 Dahlin from 53 to 73 (and -22 to +12) after 275 Cozens from 38 to 68 after 120 Thompson from 14 to 68 after 145 Thompson from 68 to 94 after 223 Mittelstadt from 19 to 59 after 187 McLeod from 30 to 53 after 219 The above isn't unusual for young players. Byram, Power, Kesselring, Mule, Quinn, Benson are all at that approximate window. I'd be surprised if a few of them don't pop this year. The only real argument I see against it is 'because Buffalo" Also, our coaching is suspect as best. Don't underestimate how much that plays into it. Quote
LGR4GM Posted 6 hours ago Report Posted 6 hours ago 59 minutes ago, dudacek said: There's a real doubt around here that — well, not exactly that the kids will never get better, but that they won't get better now. Peterka jumped from 50 points to 68 after 159 NHL games Dahlin from 23 to 53 (and -36 to -22) after 197 Dahlin from 53 to 73 (and -22 to +12) after 275 Cozens from 38 to 68 after 120 Thompson from 14 to 68 after 145 Thompson from 68 to 94 after 223 Mittelstadt from 19 to 59 after 187 McLeod from 30 to 53 after 219 The above isn't unusual for young players. Byram, Power, Kesselring, Mule, Quinn, Benson are all at that approximate window. I'd be surprised if a few of them don't pop this year. The only real argument I see against it is 'because Buffalo" I find this argument bad. What did cozens do after that jump? What did Mittelstadt do? Dahlin has that jump because Barf Krueger was ousted as coach. Peterka, Thompson, and McLeod are the only 3 that fit what you are saying. Byram already had a jump and it is highly unlikely he gets higher up because he will never get the PP time to make the jump. McLeod will have to prove he can stay in that point range as we should see goal scoring regression from him. Peterka is also an interesting one as he will be on a new team without the benefit of Tage Thompson as his linemate. Im sure a few of the guys you listed will make a jump. Jack Quinn staying healthy and not playing scared has all the talent needed to make a jump. Benson has all the underlying metrics to make a jump. Power isn't about points but defending and I think 40pts from him with better defense is good. Kesselring and Mule I don't expect big point jumps from. Samuelsson I would give a very short leash to in fact. It isn't "because Buffalo" it is because there's not 5 guys for this but really only 2. 22 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said: Also, our coaching is suspect as best. Don't underestimate how much that plays into it. I would feel way better if all the coaches were fired. Quote
dudacek Posted 5 hours ago Author Report Posted 5 hours ago (edited) 32 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: I find this argument bad. What did cozens do after that jump? What did Mittelstadt do? Dahlin has that jump because Barf Krueger was ousted as coach. Peterka, Thompson, and McLeod are the only 3 that fit what you are saying. Byram already had a jump and it is highly unlikely he gets higher up because he will never get the PP time to make the jump. McLeod will have to prove he can stay in that point range as we should see goal scoring regression from him. Peterka is also an interesting one as he will be on a new team without the benefit of Tage Thompson as his linemate. Im sure a few of the guys you listed will make a jump. Jack Quinn staying healthy and not playing scared has all the talent needed to make a jump. Benson has all the underlying metrics to make a jump. Power isn't about points but defending and I think 40pts from him with better defense is good. Kesselring and Mule I don't expect big point jumps from. Samuelsson I would give a very short leash to in fact. It isn't "because Buffalo" it is because there's not 5 guys for this but really only 2. I would feel way better if all the coaches were fired. Actually, they all fit what i am saying: the first group all took a jump in that window, the second group is all in that window. I specifically spoke about taking a jump this year, I never said they would be good forever. And my conclusion was " I would be surprised if a few of them don't pop". Which you agreed with. I used points as convenient way of representing improvement, so I guess lack of clarity there is on me, so to clarify: there is well-established precedent for players improving in the window where a number of Sabre players sit. Saying why this proven trend doesn't or shouldn't apply to certain players is fair comment. But pairing your frequent insistence that the Sabres are too inexperienced with an argument against saying inexperienced players get better seems inconsistent at best. Edited 5 hours ago by dudacek Quote
mjd1001 Posted 5 hours ago Report Posted 5 hours ago I'm still in the same spot I was 2-3 weeks ago with this topic, despite some thought to it. Instead of a #1 or #2 or #3 line(s), I want 3 balanced lines with my 9 best forwards, the remaining 3 on a 4th line that gets less ice time. In the first 3 lines, they can all 'average' about the same equal strength ice time, but on an individual game, one line may get more or less depending on matchups. Its about who plays best with who, not about putting together the 'best' #1 line. With that said, I still want to see: Doan-Kulich-Tage. Benson-Norris-Tuch. Quinn-McLeod-Zucker. Doan is the wildcard there. Maybe you can swap him and Benson...or maybe someone else steps up and takes that roll from him. I'd lalso have a quick hook to get Quinn out of there if he doesn't show signes of stepping up since last year. I think that gives you 3 fairly balanced top lines, the 4th line will get a lot less ice time and be used situationally. Quote
LGR4GM Posted 5 hours ago Report Posted 5 hours ago 21 minutes ago, dudacek said: Actually, they all fit what i am saying: the first group all took a jump in that window, the second group is all in that window. I specifically spoke about taking a jump this year, I never said they would be good forever. And my conclusion was " I would be surprised if a few of them don't pop". Which you agreed with. I used points as convenient way of representing improvement, so I guess lack of clarity there is on me, so to clarify: there is well-established precedent for players improving in the window where a number of Sabre players sit. Saying why this proven trend doesn't or shouldn't apply to certain players is fair comment. But pairing your frequent insistence that the Sabres are too inexperienced with an argument against saying inexperienced players get better seems inconsistent at best. Not really. I also didn't say that "argument against saying inexperienced player get better". I said I don't think all the players you used example actually work and I said that players like Byram, Power are not going to see a big point jump because they won't have the opportunity for it. I think Zach Benson will be much better. I think Kesselring and Quinn maybe. Again, your argument doesn't convince me and it isn't "because Buffalo" but because we've seen lots of players in that 200 range, not get better or get better marginally and then crash back down. I think this team has such a flawed coaching group that there's not going to be a big enough improvement in the players you list to drag them into the playoffs. They look like an 85pt team to me. Quote
pi2000 Posted 5 hours ago Report Posted 5 hours ago On 8/6/2025 at 11:48 AM, LGR4GM said: Zach Benson is the best defensive player on the team. But you're right, he imported that himself. It's why I want Wilford gone and why they need to understand drafting better. Is he tho? I'd put McLeod and Tuch ahead of him if we're talking defensive forwards. ============================================================== BUF even strength goal differential through 82 games = -10 BUF even strength minutes played through 82 games = 4201.25 exp+/- is a function of %min played at ES and team ES goal diff TRpm(team relative +/-) is the diff btwn actual+/- and exp+/- %min is % of ES minutes played ============================================================== Team Player TRpm GP +/- exp+/- %min BUF Alex Tuch 18.88 82 16 -2.88 28.8 BUF Ryan McLeod 15.64 79 13 -2.64 26.4 BUF Bowen Byram 14.85 82 11 -3.85 38.5 BUF Rasmus Dahlin 14.54 73 11 -3.54 35.4 BUF Henri Jokiharju 7.55 42 6 -1.55 15.5 BUF Jason Zucker 6.28 73 4 -2.28 22.8 BUF Mattias Samuelsson 5.44 62 3 -2.44 24.4 BUF Jacob Bernard-Docker 3.51 15 3 -0.51 5.1 BUF Peyton Krebs 3.48 81 1 -2.48 24.8 BUF JJ Peterka 1.80 77 -1 -2.80 28.0 BUF Tage Thompson 0.85 76 -2 -2.85 28.5 BUF Zach Benson 0.23 75 -2 -2.23 22.3 BUF Tyson Kozak -1.49 21 -2 -0.51 5.1 BUF Jiri Kulich -2.03 62 -4 -1.97 19.7 BUF Dennis Gilbert -2.43 25 -3 -0.57 5.7 BUF Isak Rosen -2.82 8 -3 -0.18 1.8 BUF Jordan Greenway -3.00 34 -4 -1.00 10.0 BUF Connor Clifton -3.69 73 -6 -2.31 23.1 BUF Noah Östlund -5.81 8 -6 -0.19 1.9 BUF Jacob Bryson -7.47 48 -9 -1.53 15.3 BUF Owen Power -9.57 79 -13 -3.43 34.3 BUF Dylan Cozens -10.93 61 -13 -2.07 20.7 BUF Sam Lafferty -13.66 60 -15 -1.34 13.4 BUF Beck Malenstyn -14.36 76 -16 -1.64 16.4 BUF Jack Quinn -15.79 74 -18 -2.21 22.1 ============================================================== It's inevitable that young players (drafted for their offensive output) will struggle defensively early in their pro career's. That said, agree that Wilford needs to go as they haven't made any real progress on the defensive side of the game. Quote
dudacek Posted 4 hours ago Author Report Posted 4 hours ago Your system is a measure of 2-way play, not defensive play. It’s usual, but not inevitable that young players struggle with defensive play. Benson is proof of that. Look where Benson ranks at goals against, shot attempts against and xGoals against. Quote
JoeSchmoe Posted 3 hours ago Report Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, mjd1001 said: Instead of a #1 or #2 or #3 line(s), I want 3 balanced lines with my 9 best forwards, the remaining 3 on a 4th line that gets less ice time. My theory is balanced lines don't work. When you take really good players and put them together, they'll score more in total than if you separate them and put them with JAGs. The reason is you usually need to string together multiple good plays to score. If you have just one guy making great plays, they'll usually die on a JAGs stick before they get in the net. My daughter's hockey team last year was a great proof of this concept (yes, obviously not the NHL 😀). They had 3 good forwards that could see the ice and make good plays and 6 that were defensively responsible, but didn't have any offensive instincts (3 lines total). The coach initially ran 3 balanced lines but the team couldn't barely score on any of the lines because the 3 girls with offensive skills weren't getting the puck or had no one in the right spots to pass to. Eventually the coach put the 3 offense minded girls together and they started scoring a LOT and became a pretty good team. Again, it's not the NHL, but it proves the concept that multiple good plays are usually needed to score goals. 1 Quote
LGR4GM Posted 3 hours ago Report Posted 3 hours ago 11 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said: My theory is balanced lines don't work. When you take really good players and put them together, they'll score more in total than if you separate them and put them with JAGs. The reason is you usually need to string together multiple good plays to score. If you have just one guy making great plays, they'll usually die on a JAGs stick before they get in the net. My daughter's hockey team last year was a great proof of this concept (yes, obviously not the NHL 😀). They had 3 good forwards that could see the ice and make good plays and 6 that were defensively responsible, but didn't have any offensive instincts (3 lines total). The coach initially ran 3 balanced lines but the team couldn't barely score on any of the lines because the 3 girls with offensive skills weren't getting the puck or had no one in the right spots to pass to. Eventually the coach put the 3 offense minded girls together and they started scoring a LOT and became a pretty good team. Again, it's not the NHL, but it proves the concept that multiple good plays are usually needed to score goals. Benson for example, is going to do better playing with top 6 guys than Cozens, Krebs, or Lafferty. If he plays with Thompson and Norris it is going to click for him fairly quickly. Quote
pi2000 Posted 25 minutes ago Report Posted 25 minutes ago 2 hours ago, LGR4GM said: Benson for example, is going to do better playing with top 6 guys than Cozens, Krebs, or Lafferty. If he plays with Thompson and Norris it is going to click for him fairly quickly. Same could be said for just about every player on the roster. Quote
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