Sabres' lines 10/3/2023

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

 

Clifton and Elder Johnson debut 

Wonder who the odd forward out is amongst them?  Benson as his 2 linemates aren't playing or 1 member of the Jost line?

Also, interesting that Clague is the spare D and not Stillman.  Wonder if that flips against the Pens?

[Pimlach]

31 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I can't really think of a time either JJP or Quinn in particular were "taken advantage of"

There was a pretty good stretch last season where they both had their minutes sheltered and Cozens played with players from other lines.  Granato did it for a reason.  

[Curt]

38 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

He's 201lbs according to the above roster. 

Thanks, that’s good!

[Night Train]

6 hours ago, French Collection said:

 I think it is time to move on from UPL 

 This

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

There was a pretty good stretch last season where they both had their minutes sheltered and Cozens played with players from other lines.  Granato did it for a reason.  

When was this? I scrolled through Quinns minutes from February to April and only found a few games that look more sheltered than normal, most games he's right around 13-14 min. 

[Pimlach]

It could have been prior to that, and I recall DG talking about it, but I would think there were games in that same stretch when they were down in the 9-11 minute range. Not every night of course. 

[That Aud Smell]

54 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I can't really think of a time either JJP or Quinn in particular were "taken advantage of"

I recall thinking that they were getting specifically targeted for physical play. Late finishes of checks and the like. This was more late December/January, iirc. 

20 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

There was a pretty good stretch last season where they both had their minutes sheltered and Cozens played with players from other lines.  Granato did it for a reason.  

I recall this as well.

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

When was this? I scrolled through Quinns minutes from February to April and only found a few games that look more sheltered than normal, most games he's right around 13-14 min. 

Hmm. I just recall DG protecting the kids after their torrid start.

[DarthEbriate]

39 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Wonder who the odd forward out is amongst them?  Benson as his 2 linemates aren't playing or 1 member of the Jost line?

Also, interesting that Clague is the spare D and not Stillman.  Wonder if that flips against the Pens?

It's Clague's last chance to see if he makes the opening night roster or gets the waivers. That's the starting defense with Joker and Stillman (6 and 7, respectively) sitting. R Johnson gets half a season in Rochester.

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I recall thinking that they were getting specifically targeted for physical play. Late finishes of checks and the like. This was more late December/January, iirc. 

I recall this as well.

Hmm. I just recall DG protecting the kids after their torrid start.

I probably didn't scroll back far enough

[DarthEbriate]

29 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I probably didn't scroll back far enough

I don't think it's in the final TOI numbers. The first half of last season, Quinn and JJP played a bunch the first two periods, then Granato sat them in the 3rd with the lead. It's partially why VO got a few empty netters early in the season, but saw his TOI go from OCT 15:16, NOV 14:16, DEC 12:57. Then, waiving Hino to the AHL  and the 7s line getting hot for a bit bumped his minutes back up in January (10G 1A with Jost and Mitts feeding him but unable to finish themselves).

[Porous Five Hole]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

The difference between Cozens and Mitts mat not be as wide as this board seems to think

Can we talk about this? 

I am on the record to have stated that Mitts was slated to be 1C two seasons ago and he got hurt. Tage seized that opportunity and the Sabres hit the lotto.  Fast forward to now, and Mitts has (to me) only shown he can be a top six forward for 40 games (second half of last year).   
 

While I’m willing to see what Mitts shows for the first half of this season, he hasn’t shown enough to consider him and Cozens to be in the same stratosphere. Dylan’s age 21-22 season (with rookie line mates) resulted in production that far outweighs anything Mitts has done through his age 25 season.  Yes, Mitts had a nice second half last year…but to say the gap and potential is small between these two players doesn’t seem quite right.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Porous Five Hole

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Can we talk about this? 

I am on the record to have stated that Mitts was slated to be 1C two seasons ago and he got hurt. Tage seized that opportunity and the Sabres hit the lotto.  Fast forward to now, and Mitts has (to me) only shown he can be a top six forward for 40 games (second half of last year).   
 

While I’m willing to see what Mitts shows for the first half of this season, he hasn’t shown enough to consider him and Cozens to be in the same stratosphere. Dylan’s age 21-22 season (with rookie line mates) resulted in production that far outweighs anything Mitts has done through his age 25 season.  Yes, Mitts had a nice second half last year…but to say the gap and potential is small between these two players doesn’t seem quite right.

To be clear, I think Cozens is a better player and has a higher ceiling.

I was mostly referring to my sense that a lot of Sabres fans don’t think they’re “in the same stratosphere” when the numbers last year said they kinda are. 

Production-wise, Cozens was the 28th highest scoring centre in the league last year. Mitts was 45th - basically a great 2C and a good one. In terms of puck possession, Mitts had a 51.5% to Dylan’s 49.4%, so a little above average and a little below. Mitts also had better defensive analytics last year in the models Ive seen. Analytics show each has an elite trait: Cozens as an entry guy (96th percentile), Casey as a setup man (98th percentile).

[matter2003]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

To be clear, I think Cozens is a better player and has a higher ceiling.

I was mostly referring to my sense that a lot of Sabres fans don’t think they’re “in the same stratosphere” when the numbers last year said they kinda are. 

Production-wise, Cozens was the 28th highest scoring centre in the league last year. Mitts was 45th - basically a great 2C and a good one. In terms of puck possession, Mitts had a 51.5% to Dylan’s 49.4%, so a little above average and a little below. Mitts also had better defensive analytics last year in the models Ive seen. Analytics show each has an elite trait: Cozens as an entry guy (96th percentile), Casey as a setup man (98th percentile).

Mitts seems to have finally found his role in terms of what he is best at doing and has started doing it more consistently.  This year could be an even bigger leap for him as I don't think he found that until midway through the season. Could be a 70-80 point player if he starts that from the beginning of the year.

Edited October 4, 2023 by matter2003

[Doohickie]

I think Mitts was always trying to do what he does now.  The difference is that he sees it through to conclusion.  Earlier in his career his rushes and attempts at possession more frequently ended with him turning the puck over.  Now he might struggle to maintain possession as the opposing defense closes in, but more often than not draws the defense in to him before moving the puck to an open Sabre.