SLOW it down on Kulich and Rosen

[Thorny]

12 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

I am surprised by the haste that folks want to see from the core of this team. The core is a bunch of kids and they are still years from their collective prime. Rosen is in line age-wise with some of them... if he hits his ceiling he could be an incredibly important part of the franchise. If he doesn't, he could be an Armia, who is still kicking around the league 10 years after being drafted.

But the central core of this Sabres team is years younger than any of the 4 NHL semifinalists. Heck, the Sabres core is years younger than New Jersey's.

I think Rosen is tracking upward. He seems to be contributing really well with the Amerks in the playoffs (where Quinn's scoring completely disappeared last season).

Honestly, I don't know where to project him vs. the other top forwards yet. But because of the core Sabres' ages, I'd think it'd be more likely to see Rosen in the lineup if/when the Sabres make the Stanley Cup Final than it would be to see Skinner.

Could be a disconnect that stems from the fact that, regardless of what the core is perceived to be, our 3 best forwards are assuredly NOT a bunch of kids. Any future projection always seems to involve our “core” (not our current best forwards, for some reason) being melded in to one of the best offenses in the league seamlessly, at some vague point down the line, while said offence waits there, at the top of the league, in a holding pattern.

”this isn’t going to go the way you think!” is a possibility, here

[DarthEbriate]

17 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Could be a disconnect that stems from the fact that, regardless of what the core is perceived to be, our 3 best forwards are assuredly NOT a bunch of kids. Any future projection always seems to involve our “core” (not our current best forwards, for some reason) being melded in to one of the best offenses in the league seamlessly, at some vague point down the line, while said offence waits there, at the top of the league, in a holding pattern.

”this isn’t going to go the way you think!” is a possibility, here

This is definitely a disconnect for me. The core as I see it is spanning Dahlin and Power. Tage is on the upper end and Tuch is on the outskirts (in 4 years there's going to be a thread called "Alex Tuch Kyle Okposo is back" and people will be griping that he's blocking young talent). They're set up to get good (really, really good) in 2025-26. That is when the age 20-23 core will start to enter their window.

And what I hope is that the Sabres win one early so that the window is broken open, and then remains wide open for 15 seasons while they've got the Power.

Edited May 25, 2023 by DarthEbriate

[JohninMinn.]

8 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Every thread seems to have Kulich penciled into the Sabres lineup next year. Some even hint at Rosen cracking the lineup. Here's some food for thought.

Quinn and Peterka's AHL season before making the big club:

Quinn: 61pt in 45gp

Peterka: 68pt in 70gp

Kulich and Rosen this year:

Kulich: 46pt in 62gp

Rosen: 37pt in 66gp

Peterka (and even Quinn) struggled at times this year coming off a ppg season in ROC. Clearly the latter are a step or two behind being nowhere near ppg.

Given his age, Kulich looks to like he'll be an impact player... Just give him another year to marinate and work on his 200ft game. Next year in the A I could see him putting up Peterka or maybe even Quinn-like numbers.

Rosen in my long standing opinion isn't tracking to be an NHL player of any significance. Even after potentially another year or two of putting on some size and gaining skill, I question whether we'll need more of his style of play in the lineup. I'd be packaging him pretty hard this offseason.

I'm an Olofsson guy. He's a natural goal scorer. Great skater too. Give him some time please!

[msw2112]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

It’s still up on Eliteprospects, but they move the info to the bottom of the player page.

I was going from memory.  I guess my memory isn't that great.  Still, he ranked between #8 and #28, so he was clearly considered a 1st round talent.  Given the percentage of failures of NHL draftees, he seems to be on track so far.

[Pimlach]

7 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

So is winning.

New avatar?   Hopefully just an off season message. 
 

Bring back Rick.  The mischievous pose fits you.  

.  

[PASabreFan]

11 hours ago, Pimlach said:

New avatar?   Hopefully just an off season message. 
 

Bring back Rick.  The mischievous pose fits you.  

.  

Just a spring fling with my downstate bros.

[JoeSchmoe]

12 hours ago, msw2112 said:

I was going from memory.  I guess my memory isn't that great.  Still, he ranked between #8 and #28, so he was clearly considered a 1st round talent.  Given the percentage of failures of NHL draftees, he seems to be on track so far.

In my post above, I show that #8 was among EU skaters only.  World wide, he'd have been much lower.

[GASabresIUFAN]

22 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Rosen is criminally underrated by this board. 

Where does he rank in upside potential compared to:

Mitts, Krebs, JJP, Quinn, Cozens, Savoie, Kulich or Östlund ?

Given what we know about Thompson and Tuch he’s arguably the 11th most talented forward in the organization right now and possibly 12th (Greenway) or 13th, if we take a forward at 13 in the draft.  Rosen might not have been a 1st talent if he came out in 2023.  
 

He was a reach at 14.  He may have 2nd line potential, but given the players in front of him, I doubt he reaches that potential with the Sabres.

Edited May 26, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Buffalonill]

58 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Where does he rank in upside potential compared to:

Mitts, Krebs, JJP, Quinn, Savoie, Kulich or Östlund ?

Given what we know about Thompson and Tuch he’s arguably the 10th most talented forward in the organization right now and possibly 11th (Greenway) or 12th if the we take a forward at 13 in the draft.  Rosen might not have been a 1st talent if he came out in 2023.  
 

He was a reach at 14.  He may have 2nd line potential, but given the players in front of him, I doubt he reaches that potential with the Sabres.

How was he a reach ? 

[JoeSchmoe]

1 minute ago, Buffalonill said:

How was he a reach ? 

This is how.

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

How was he a reach ? 

His consensus rating was 21 on draft day.  Out of the 15 rankings I looked at only 12 had him with a 1st rd grade.  No one had him rated higher than 16 and most had him in the 20s or later.  

 

Edited May 26, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Buffalonill]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

His consensus rating was 21 on draft day.  Out of the 15 rankings I looked at only 12 had him with a 1st rd grade.  No one had him rated higher than 16 and most had him in the 20s or later.  

 

Did you all forget about jack quinn 

[GASabresIUFAN]

21 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Did you all forget about jack quinn 

He had multiple ratings in the top 10. Sportsnet, for example, had him 9th.  TSN's Button had him 7th, Mckeen's, Draft Prospects, McKenzie, and ISS all had him 10th.  Quinn at 8 was hardly a reach.  My consensus board had him 10th.  

PS: Just because the entire board thought this was a bad pick at 8 because he had had only one good junior season, doesn't mean it was a reach.  

Edited May 26, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[RochesterExpat]

15 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Tuch is on the outskirts (in 4 years there's going to be a thread called "Alex Tuch Kyle Okposo is back" and people will be griping that he's blocking young talent).

Just want to point out that Tuch is young relative to the league still. He'll be 30 when he's due a new contract following 25-26. KO is 35. The thread theme will be "why did we sign him for 7 years?" not "why did we sign him for one year?"

The appropriate player to call out for the next "[x] is back" is Jeff Skinner following the 26-27 season. He'll be KO's age if they bring him back.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, RochesterExpat said:

Just want to point out that Tuch is young relative to the league still. He'll be 30 when he's due a new contract following 25-26. KO is 35. The thread theme will be "why did we sign him for 7 years?" not "why did we sign him for one year?"

The appropriate player to call out for the next "[x] is back" is Jeff Skinner following the 26-27 season. He'll be KO's age if they bring him back.

Tuch just turned 27.  I suspect he'll be just fine at 31.  Skinner's game is the type of game that can be played well into his 30's.  Think Joe Pavelski.  However, when I listed the more talented players in the organization ahead of Rosen, I didn't include Skinner.  Once you include Skinner, Rosen falls to 13 or 14th talent-wise.

Take the Sabres right now and cross out KO, Skinner, Tuch, and even Greenway.  You're left with Thompson, Cozens, Mitts, Quinn, JJP, Savoie, Kulich, Krebs, and Östlund.  Cap considerations aside, who are you jettisoning in favor of Rosen for a top 9 spot?  

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just for comparison purposes

Quinn (age 20 season) - AHL - 45gm 26g 35a 61 pts (1.36  pts/gp)

Quinn (19) - AHL - 15gm 2g 7a 9pts (.6 pts/gp)

JJP (19) - AHL - 70gm 28g 40a 68 pts  (.97 pts/gp)

Kulich (18) - AHL - 62gm 24g 22a 46pts (.74 pts/gp)

Rosen (19) - AHL - 66gm 14g 23a 37pts (.56 pts/gp)

Nylander (19) - AHL 51gm 8g 19a 27pt (.53 pts/gp)

Krebs (19) - AHL 5gm 1g 4a 5pts (1pt/gp) - Krebs was mostly in the WHL that season (with 43pts in 24gms) 

Cozens (19) - NHL- 41gms 4g 9a 13 pts

TNT & Mitts were in college.  Savoie is stuck in the WHL (95 pts in 62 games). 

Östlund (18) - AVK - 37gm 8g 18a 26pts (.70 pts/gp) Note: the NHLe for the Allsvenskan is very close to the AHL's.

Edited May 27, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Buffalonill]

56 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He had multiple ratings in the top 10. Sportsnet, for example, had him 9th.  TSN's Button had him 7th, Mckeen's, Draft Prospects, McKenzie, and ISS all had him 10th.  Quinn at 8 was hardly a reach.  My consensus board had him 10th.  

PS: Just because the entire board thought this was a bad pick at 8 because he had had only one good junior season, doesn't mean it was a reach.  

Jack quinn was ranked around 20 and 15 

[GASabresIUFAN]

20 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Jack quinn was ranked around 20 and 15 

No he wasn’t.  
 

2020 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #16 by Elite Prospects

2020 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #10 by ISS Hockey

2020 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #20 by FCHockey

2020 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #7 by TSN/Craig Button

2020 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #10 by McKeen's Hockey

2020 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #10 by TSN/McKenzie

2020 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #7 by NHL Central Scouting

https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2020-nhl-draft-rankings-consensus-lafreniere-byfield-stutzle-bob-mckenzie-athletic-hockey-prospects/

This is a great consensus board that uses 15 rankings and Quinn was 11th

Edited May 26, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

This is how.

Assuming the consolidated ranking of "20th" is accurate, then relative to where Rosen was ranked it could be said that they reached a bit.  Of course, that the Sabres took him at 13 likely means that they had him ranked closer to 10. It's way too early to draw conclusions on whether it was a good pick.

I know that when it comes to the draft I am guilty of looking at the players who are ranked slightly higher than where we are picking and focusing on 2 or 3 who I hope slip. Of course, for a player to slip it means that a team or teams took players who were ranked lower.  We are probably as likely to pick a player ranked in the 20's with our 1st pick this year as we are to get a top 10 kid who falls.    

I was disappointed on draft night when they took Quinn.  A was so focused on either Rossi slipping or on us possibly getting the "pro-ready" Lundell that I didn't spend any time on the real possibility they would take Quinn.  A few minutes of research after the draft and I was happy with the pick.  Incidentally, Quinn was taken 8th and as of now he is 8th in career NHL points from the 2020 draft.

 

[RochesterExpat]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Tuch just turned 27.  I suspect he'll be just fine at 31.  Skinner's game is the type of game that can be played well into his 30's.  Think Joe Pavelski.  However, when I listed the more talented players in the organization ahead of Rosen, I didn't include Skinner.  Once you include Skinner, Rosen falls to 13 or 14th talent-wise.

Take the Sabres right now and cross out KO, Skinner, Tuch, and even Greenway.  You're left with Thompson, Cozens, Mitts, Quinn, JJP, Savoie, Kulich, Krebs, and Östlund.  Cap considerations aside, who are you jettisoning in favor of Rosen for a top 9 spot?  

For current non-roster players, Kulich and Savoie are untouchable in my eyes and I say that after writing a whole thing in another thread that I think Rosen is closer to NHL-ready than Kulich because he's got a more well-rounded game (although Rousek is ahead of Rosen as far as readiness goes based on my observations watching Rochester). Before someone asks the reductio ad absurdum, yes, I'd be willing to trade both Kulich and Savoie for McDavid and Draisaitl at 50% retained. "Untouchable" is not a literal statement. It means that the return I'd like to see for them far exceeds what any team is going to willingly offer GMKA.

I believe Rosen is underrated because his numbers out of Sweden in the season following his draft weren't very good as a result of very limited ice time and he was drafted several spots of ahead of his consensus ranking. When you combine those considerations, you end up with a controversial player (just look at this thread). There's a lot of built-in bias against him as a result. He's still in need of some serious time this off-season in the weight room (same as Kisakov). As the whole start of this thread points out, he didn't post the JJP/Quinn numbers despite the same approximate age for his first AHL season. But if you look at his play for the latter third of the season and now into the playoffs, there's no denying that Rosen has an outsized on-ice impact. I doubt any serious Amerks fans will disagree with that. It's the same impact that was completely absent from Quinn during the playoffs last season, so I recognize it's not a universal indicator on future success.

I'd still be willing to part with Rosen though if it meant improving Buffalo tomorrow. Same as Rousek although I'd like Rousek to get a season with Buffalo first if only for visibility. Östlund I'm less willing to see moved because I think his horizon to join the big club is later and his ELC may provide some cap relief at that point (I also think he's more talented than Rosen), but I'm not on the same level of EA NHL tier trade expectations that I am with Kulich/Savoie. If we end up with another forward in the first round this year, I'd probably more inclined to lower my valuation on Östlund.

[Archie Lee]

On the Savoie/Kulich topic, I would say that I generally agree that I think we could slow down the NHL in 2023 talk.  I've got no real issue with them being in the NHL to start next season, I just don't think it should be a sure thing either.

Looking back to the years 2000-2009, the Sabres drafted 16 players who played 500 or more NHL games.  Only one, Tyler Myers, was an NHL regular by the start of his D+2 season. On average it took 3.5 years post-draft for those 16 players to become NHL regulars.  There was a lock-out in there, but the bigger point is that it did not hurt those players that it took some time for them to make it to the NHL.  The list of these players includes Ryan Miller, Brian Campbell, Derek Roy, Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville and Paul Gaustad.  Key contributors to the 2005-2007 teams.

Since 2009 it has been a bit different.  9 drafted Sabres became regulars with the team either from the start of D+1 or D+2.  Girgensens, Ristolainen Zadorov, Reinhart, Eichel, Mittelstadt, Dahlin, Cozens and Power.  Some were clearly ready, some were clearly not.  A one-sized fits all approach is not the way to go, but if you just use the 21st century Sabres as a guideline, it is better to be patient with than to rush a prospect.  

Quinn and Peterka were not NHL regulars until the start of D+3.  I'm not sure Kulich and Savoie are better prospects than Quinn and Peterka.  I'm also not sure that there is space or a need to force them into the line-up. We are at the point where they should only be  in the NHL if it makes the Sabres better.  Savoie's career won't be stunted if he has to play another year in the WHL, being a leader on a contending team and a key player on Canada's world junior squad.  Likewise, I suspect there is lots that Kulich can learn from another year in Rochester.  

 

 

[JoeSchmoe]

One thing I'll give Rosen/the Sabres credit for is he seems to be the first of the drop off point in picks that have done much to date. Most picks above him have seen NHL playing time and most picks below him haven't. Can't hurt to have taken a flyer on him, but I stand my the notion they should have took a flyer on a player of similar stats but larger size. 

[Thorny]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

His consensus rating was 21 on draft day.  Out of the 15 rankings I looked at only 12 had him with a 1st rd grade.  No one had him rated higher than 16 and most had him in the 20s or later.  

 

Taking about consensus rankings and whether we “reached” is a good way to Bat signal @dudacekif you feel like losing an argument 

[shrader]

It’s just nice being able to talk about these kids from the perspective where they don’t need to become superstars and the best player on the team anymore. They’re all building blocks now instead of cornerstones. We haven’t been here in a very long time. 

[DarthEbriate]

3 hours ago, RochesterExpat said:

Just want to point out that Tuch is young relative to the league still. He'll be 30 when he's due a new contract following 25-26. KO is 35. The thread theme will be "why did we sign him for 7 years?" not "why did we sign him for one year?"

The appropriate player to call out for the next "[x] is back" is Jeff Skinner following the 26-27 season. He'll be KO's age if they bring him back.

If all goes according to plan, the Sabres are going to be legitimate contenders, spending to the cap, and Tuch is going to be an in-demand player from deep postseason runs when his current contract expires. He's also already had one significant shoulder surgery. He could very easily become a cap casualty no matter how much he wants to be here. Either of your questions could be possible. (Granted, if he becomes captain [my gut says yes], then they definitely do lock him up through his mid-to-late 30s.) Only time will tell.

I believe Skinner is going to face the same problem he did in Carolina; he's a very good player but a youthful core is going to kick him out because he isn't a bottom-6 guy who kills penalties, etc. and the Sabres' version of Svechnikov is coming. The question is... is it Neuchev/Savoie, this year's #13, or even a 2024 draft pick?