Has Casey Mittelstadt changed any minds?

[TRIP65]

18 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@TRIP65 I was joking.  I'm one of Casey's biggest supporters here.  I think he has the potential to be a pt-a-game player in the NHL.  I think we are seeing much of that potential unlocked as he has formed excellent chemistry with his buddy Cozens.  

That said, I am also a realist.  Due to our forward depth and the development of guys like JPP, Kulich, and Savoie, the odds of us not being able to afford to keep Casey increase with his improved production.  Fortunately, he is under contract for one more season and I'm pretty confident he'll be back next fall.  Still, as I pointed out up thread if the price to get a quality player to partner with Power is Casey, KA would have to consider it.

 

Middlestat can have a place at Jost and Hino expense. Kulich and/or Savoie will be here sometime next year

Have to decide Olofsson, Middlestat, Hino and Jost cause Peterka too eventually will also be on top if he discovers his speed and shot together.

 I expect Stillman and Greenway are here next year playing for toughness

Wondering about Girg and Okoposso. I still see a place for them developing Kulich and Savoie

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

Casey has come a long way, but I’m not sure he has a place on this team unless he can start burying more high chance opportunities.  In my mind Quinn has already surpassed him on the depth chart.

[TRIP65]

27 minutes ago, MattPie said:

We can worry about that when it comes to pass. Too long have the Sabres penciled guys in that have played ZERO NHL games to start jettisoning people that can play. We have no idea what Kulich and to a lesser degree Savoie are going to look like in 2 years.

We know Kulich is producing Big time in the likes of better than Quinn, he cant stay in Amerks, that is development. Savoie if ready will be up but Sabres have time. Middlestat is about money. Can't pay everyone. Have Dahlin Power that in 3 years will both be $10-12 mil guys/yr. Have Quinn/Krebs needing to be paid something in $4-5 mil/yr range in two years. Tuch will be due in two years at $6-8 mil. No room for 10 goals/40pts at $4-6 mil, NOT on this team. Don't think he sucks, just think there are cheaper alternatives and Sabres will need cheap options 5-6 years from now READY, that means draft picks now to make that happen. We have NO defensive backups.

[Thorny]

16 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Turns out I was correct. 🙂  It's so nice not to have to fight with everyone over him any longer.

I call bullsh*t

[GASabresIUFAN]

19 minutes ago, TageMVP said:

Are you related to him 

No.  My faith in him, and it has been tested at times (Thanks RK), stems from the player I saw at the World Jrs and the player that emerged when RK finally got fired.  My fear was we'd give up on him too soon and he'd explode with his next team.  Fortunately, DG has a way of seeing a player's potential and experimenting until he finds that player's highest and best use.  The list is getting near endless, Thompson, Tuch, Skinner,  Dahlin, Jost, Krebs, and now Casey.  There are guys who haven't taken a step forward like Asplund and Bryson, but those may be cases of not enough there to unlock.  I'm so looking forward to how he unlocks Greenway's potential.  

Edited March 7, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorny]

15 minutes ago, Taro T said:

He was the loudest.  Not sure that makes him the biggest.

Sorry, I already tabulated the votes. His raw totals, ala Karlsson, were just too hard to ignore 

- - - 

In seriousness, no, I think we was the biggest

im saying this in a thread where I presented evidence to the fact I more less pointed out, 2 years ago, exactly what would happen so, I’m not being humble. Not that I ever am. 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I call bullsh*t

Are you implying that I just like to argue by taking the contrary position to many of the board?  Ok, you got me.  

[TageMVP]

He will be traded in the off-season 

[TRIP65]

23 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The cap isn't an issue now.  We are at about 65 million for next season and may not be an issue for years to come if the projected cap increase happens as predicted.  

Let's say for example that Casey hits 70 points next year and you trade him before 2024-25, what kind of production would you expect from a 20-year-old Kulich and/or Savoie?  20-year-old Cozens had 38 pts in 79 games.  21-year-old Quinn has 29 in 55 games.  20-year-old JJP has 21 in 59 games. 20-year-old Casey had 25 pts in 77 games.  So even if they are exceptional as rookies, we are unlikely to replace Casey's production and strength along the boards.  

For team looking to compete in the playoffs, isn't that arguably a step backward if we can afford to keep him?

 

70 pts come from Cozens, Quinn, Krebs, etc... Not Kulich, Savoie, they are your rookies at 20-40 pts

But I will bet Kulich or Savoie get to 30 goals before Middlestat does.

[TageMVP]

Just now, TRIP65 said:

70 pts come from Cozens, Quinn, Krebs, etc... Not Kulich, Savoie, they are your rookies at 20-40 pts

But I will bet Kulich or Savoie get to 30 goals before Middlestat does.

Lol Middlingstats will never get to 30 goals. He's not that type of player

He might, maybe, get to 20 goals sometime in the next 10 years 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, TageMVP said:

Middlingstats

Great nickname.  2 thumbs up.

[TRIP65]

3 minutes ago, TageMVP said:

Lol Middlingstats will never get to 30 goals. He's not that type of player

He might, maybe, get to 20 goals sometime in the next 10 years 

Exactly my point, assists are 2nd, 3rd pts. Whats more important 20 goals 30 assists or 10 goals 40 assists when 1-2 players can be made an assist on a goal

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

Exactly my point, assists are 2nd, 3rd pts. Whats more important 20 goals 30 assists or 10 goals 40 assists when 1-2 players can be made an assist on a goal

Are you and TageMVP brothers? 

The assists question has been raised many times.  The goal scorers that can score off of feeds but also can create opportunities for themselves, like TnT and Quinn are the most valuable of all, but if you ask me if I want a guy like Casey over a guy like VO, I'd take Casey in a second.  Ask Ovie how valuable Kuznetsov is.  Ask the guys who played with Adam Oates how valuable he was.

[TageMVP]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Are you and TageMVP brothers? 

The assists question has been raised many times.  The goal scorers that can score off of feeds but also can create opportunities for themselves, like TnT and Quinn are the most valuable of all, but if you ask me if I want a guy like Casey over a guy like VO, I'd take Casey in a second.  Ask Ovie how valuable Kuznetsov is.  Ask the guys who played with Adam Oates how valuable he was.

He's my Dad 

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Are you and TageMVP brothers? 

The assists question has been raised many times.  The goal scorers that can score off of feeds but also can create opportunities for themselves, like TnT and Quinn are the most valuable of all, but if you ask me if I want a guy like Casey over a guy like VO, I'd take Casey in a second.  Ask Ovie how valuable Kuznetsov is.  Ask the guys who played with Adam Oates how valuable he was.

Watching Oates as a kid, specifically, was formative in developing what I value most in a player. People’s mileage varies a lot on this obviously but it’s also the most entertaining style/skill to me: the whiz playmaker. 

On a side note, the commentator on SN yesterday said “former Sabre Adam Oates”. Wut.

 

[TRIP65]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Are you and TageMVP brothers? 

The assists question has been raised many times.  The goal scorers that can score off of feeds but also can create opportunities for themselves, like TnT and Quinn are the most valuable of all, but if you ask me if I want a guy like Casey over a guy like VO, I'd take Casey in a second.  Ask Ovie how valuable Kuznetsov is.  Ask the guys who played with Adam Oates how valuable he was.

Didn't ask about VO. Olofsson is a luxury player. Goals only, no defense. Maybe he can play with Greenway. If NOT he needs to be moved for any draft pick you can get.

[SABRES 0311]

3 hours ago, TRIP65 said:

No, had a GOOD game last night but rarely does this. We have to many Prospects and I don't look at Middlestat as a Veteran.

 

NEVER proven himself yet. He however has been HEALTHY.

Times up, give time to Kulich

I’m hesitant because of what I think he could be. I dismissed TNT a couple years ago and was gladly proven wrong.

[TRIP65]

58 minutes ago, SABRES 0311 said:

I’m hesitant because of what I think he could be. I dismissed TNT a couple years ago and was gladly proven wrong.

TNT is 6'7" , quite a different type of player. Middlestat is NOT doing anything tonite.

[JohninMinn.]

He's a thoroughbred. Late bloomer from Minnesota.

[SABRES 0311]

4 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

TNT is 6'7" , quite a different type of player. Middlestat is NOT doing anything tonite.

Isn’t having different types of players a good thing? I think KA mentioned something like that about acquiring Greenway.

[IKnowPhysics]

Mittelstadt's statistical evolution over the season has been interesting.  His even strength play was insufferable in November, but he was crushing it on the power play.  As of late January, he was generating P/GP at a solid 2nd line rate.

But his recent individual 5v5 stats in the past 15 games are ***** bonkers (ranked among Sabres forwards, then league forwards):

G/60 0.89 (8th, 128th overall)

Total A/60 2.44 (1st by a mile over Quinn at 1.64, 7th overall)

1st Assists/60 0.91 (4th, 84th overall)

2nd Assists/60 1.52 (1st, 6th overall)

Total P/60 3.35 (2nd, 15th overall)

ixG/60 0.63 (9th, 238th)

iHDCF/60 1.83 (12th, 336th)

 

So he's been a premier setup man for offense, but simply doesn't shoot or get the puck in high-danger areas to score goals.

But here's the thing: it works somehow.  Here are the on-ice stats when Mittelstadt in the past 15 games (same rankings):

GF/60 4.87 (1st, 4th overall)

GA/60 2.74 (6th lowest)

GF% 64.00 (2nd, 57th overall)

HDCF/60 10.66 (8th)

HDCA/60 15.53 (6th lowest)

HDGF/60 2.13 (3rd, 68th overall)

His line has elite top-of-league 5v5 goal production when he's been out there lately.  And even though Mittelstadt doesn't shoot or get pucks in high danger areas, his teammates capitalize on his setups both inside and outside high danger areas.  They are pouring goals into the opposing net and Mittelstadt is setting them up.

 

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

 

His line has elite top-of-league 5v5 goal production when he's been out there lately.  And even though Mittelstadt doesn't shoot or get pucks in high danger areas, his teammates capitalize on his setups both inside and outside high danger areas.  They are pouring goals into the opposing net and Mittelstadt is setting them up.

 

The latter somewhat reflects the eye test, at least in terms of the chemistry we’ve seen between him and Cozens.

Really curious to see what could happen if they added an upgrade to Vinnie with those two.

[GASabresIUFAN]

DG took Mitts away from VO and his production dried up.  That is not a coincidence. 

[IKnowPhysics]

12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

DG took Mitts away from VO and his production dried up.  That is not a coincidence. 

Agreed.  Here's Mittelstadt's WOWY, showing Olofsson falling off the cliff without him:

https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/2223/BUF/mitteca98/wrap

[Zamboni]

If we can improve the roster by trading Mitts, I would do it. If KA wants to keep him, I hope it’s a short term contract like 2-3 years. In the 3 to 4.5 mil per range. That’s just me.