2023-24 Sabres Early Thoughts

[Dr. Who]

17 minutes ago, ... said:

Sorry, missed this. 

I almost would rather not say, but whatevers...I know there are successful shorter-statured players in the league however I think every one to come through the Sabres over the last 15 years or so have been well over-sold. From what I see of him, and this is only stats and YooTube videos, I get the same impression that this guy is being over-sold as well.

I think my record on being open to changing my mind - the most recent case being Mitts - speaks for itself and I hope that's the case with this guy but for now I'm not boarding the hype train.

 

I'm pretty old. When I was a kid, one of my favorite players was Yvan Cournoyer, and then we had Danny Gare, and later Daniel Briere, so I am perhaps biased in the other direction. I'm excited about Savoie, in any event. Let's hope he's one of the genuinely good ones.

[dudacek]

Under contract and properly slotted for what they have shown so far (not line combos):

Skinner Thompson Tuch

Mittelstadt Cozens xxx

Greenway/Olofsson xxx Quinn*

Peterka* Krebs* xxx

Kulich* Savoie* Rousek

Dahlin xxx

Power* Samuelsson*

Lyubushkin Jokiharju

Bryson Stillman

 

XXX

UPL/Comrie

Levi*

 

*A player who could reasonably make a leap

 

Edited April 19, 2023 by dudacek

[dudacek]

Do Jost, Okposo and Girgensons fit?

How many of the kids can you project higher int the lineup?

Who is expendable?

How do you best fill the holes?

[Randall Flagg]

8 hours ago, French Collection said:

We all hope for a Briere, Barzal or Point but he could end up like Erod.

A 2C on a cup contender?

Hehe

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

A 2C on a cup contender?

Hehe

He was actually playing wing with MacKinnon and Rantanen last night.

I originally wanted to say Gerbe but he’s not that small.

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

Peterka* Krebs* xxx

It’s funny, but it seems people are down on JJP and high on Quinn, yet Quinn only had 5 more points this past season and only 2 more goals.  Both were better than Casey’s first season.  I still believe that both have similar upside as each other.  They both remind me of Stl’s Thomas and Kyrou.  Those two started with 30 pt seasons at a similar age and have blossomed into 70 pts players.  I expect both guys to take another step forward next season at Cozen’s wingers. 

[Randall Flagg]

Peterka has some very enticing elements in his game. I'm only moving him as a piece in a trade for a Timo Meier level player 

The puck is a magnet on his stick in situations where most NHL skaters hopelessly lose it 

Edited April 19, 2023 by Randall Flagg

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It’s funny, but it seems people are down on JJP and high on Quinn, yet Quinn only had 5 more points this past season and only 2 more goals.  Both were better than Casey’s first season.  I still believe that both have similar upside as each other.  They both remind me of Stl’s Thomas and Kyrou.  Those two started with 30 pt seasons at a similar age and have blossomed into 70 pts players.  I expect both guys to take another step forward next season at Cozen’s wingers. 

 For me personally, Jack is only marginally ahead offensively and not at all on tools.

It's that I have a level of trust for Jack defensively that I haven't developed for JJ.

I'm certainly not down on either of them; each had the type of rookie year I kind of expected and we're still 2 or 3 years away from seeing what they will be.

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 For me personally, Jack is only marginally ahead offensively and not at all on tools.

It's that I have a level of trust for Jack defensively that I haven't developed for JJ.

I'm certainly not down on either of them; each had the type of rookie year I kind of expected and we're still 2 or 3 years away from seeing what they will be.

Jack Quinn has more tools than JJP, period. They are more refined as well. 

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It’s funny, but it seems people are down on JJP and high on Quinn, yet Quinn only had 5 more points this past season and only 2 more goals.  Both were better than Casey’s first season.  I still believe that both have similar upside as each other.  They both remind me of Stl’s Thomas and Kyrou.  Those two started with 30 pt seasons at a similar age and have blossomed into 70 pts players.  I expect both guys to take another step forward next season at Cozen’s wingers. 

They dont. Jack Quinn has higher upside. JJP is a 60pt player, Quinn is a 80pt player.

[Taro T]

Question for those that think the Sabres will bring back the 3 headed goalie monster AND Kyle Okposo (at least for 16 games and presumably the whole season).  Presumably Savoie will be on the roster to start the season and IMHO there isn't a spot for Olofsson (his spot likely goes to Savoie).  1st off, for those that expect Kyle and 3 G's, do you agree that is most likely what happens with Savoie?

Still also expect the Sabres to go after a Graves or an Orlov or Hannifan, so the Sabres should have the top 4 D set, at least on paper with solid 3rd pairing guys behing them; 1 of which Granato often played 20+ minutes per game this past season.  Should the Sabres land another power forward like a Tom Wilson or a true 4C; it would seem that with 3 goalies, and Okposo that something will have to give.  Either Girgensons doesn't get a new contract (but personally expect he will get an offer) or they have to do something truly off the board to have room for Okposo and the 3HGM.  Would the Sabres be crazy enough to try to run with only 5 D (4 of which would get close to 25 minutes/game and the other 20) and dress 13 F's?  They'd pretty much need either Lybushkin or Stillman to start the year on IR as whichever one wasn't the spare 6th D would almost definitely get claimed off waivers.

Not expecting them to be that crazy.  But really don't see how they make the 3HGM and bringing Okposo back work without doing something wild like that.

Thoughts?

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Question for those that think the Sabres will bring back the 3 headed goalie monster AND Kyle Okposo (at least for 16 games and presumably the whole season).  Presumably Savoie will be on the roster to start the season and IMHO there isn't a spot for Olofsson (his spot likely goes to Savoie).  1st off, for those that expect Kyle and 3 G's, do you agree that is most likely what happens with Savoie?

Still also expect the Sabres to go after a Graves or an Orlov or Hannifan, so the Sabres should have the top 4 D set, at least on paper with solid 3rd pairing guys behing them; 1 of which Granato often played 20+ minutes per game this past season.  Should the Sabres land another power forward like a Tom Wilson or a true 4C; it would seem that with 3 goalies, and Okposo that something will have to give.  Either Girgensons doesn't get a new contract (but personally expect he will get an offer) or they have to do something truly off the board to have room for Okposo and the 3HGM.  Would the Sabres be crazy enough to try to run with only 5 D (4 of which would get close to 25 minutes/game and the other 20) and dress 13 F's?  They'd pretty much need either Lybushkin or Stillman to start the year on IR as whichever one wasn't the spare 6th D would almost definitely get claimed off waivers.

Not expecting them to be that crazy.  But really don't see how they make the 3HGM and bringing Okposo back work without doing something wild like that.

Thoughts?

There's no way to rationally make it work. They are either lying or deceiving themselves. The three goalie thing is intrinsically a bad idea. They need to get off it. It's alright to bring back either Girgensons or Okposo; it shouldn't be both. They need to trust that the vibe in the locker room that they love so much can absorb some change, because more of it is coming down the line.

 

 

 

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Jack Quinn has more tools than JJP, period. They are more refined as well. 

They dont. Jack Quinn has higher upside. JJP is a 60pt player, Quinn is a 80pt player.

As far as tools go, I'm talking strictly physical. I think JJP is faster than Quinn and stronger on his skates, Jack has better hands.

Vision-wise, I think there's another level to Jack and that's why I tend to agree with your ceiling projections.

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Question for those that think the Sabres will bring back the 3 headed goalie monster AND Kyle Okposo (at least for 16 games and presumably the whole season).  Presumably Savoie will be on the roster to start the season and IMHO there isn't a spot for Olofsson (his spot likely goes to Savoie).  1st off, for those that expect Kyle and 3 G's, do you agree that is most likely what happens with Savoie?

Still also expect the Sabres to go after a Graves or an Orlov or Hannifan, so the Sabres should have the top 4 D set, at least on paper with solid 3rd pairing guys behing them; 1 of which Granato often played 20+ minutes per game this past season.  Should the Sabres land another power forward like a Tom Wilson or a true 4C; it would seem that with 3 goalies, and Okposo that something will have to give.  Either Girgensons doesn't get a new contract (but personally expect he will get an offer) or they have to do something truly off the board to have room for Okposo and the 3HGM.  Would the Sabres be crazy enough to try to run with only 5 D (4 of which would get close to 25 minutes/game and the other 20) and dress 13 F's?  They'd pretty much need either Lybushkin or Stillman to start the year on IR as whichever one wasn't the spare 6th D would almost definitely get claimed off waivers.

Not expecting them to be that crazy.  But really don't see how they make the 3HGM and bringing Okposo back work without doing something wild like that.

Thoughts?

I already wrote this but will add to the defense part. 

On 4/15/2023 at 4:52 PM, LGR4GM said:

Centers are all done currently, 4 for 4 with Cozens, Thompson, Mittelstadt, and Krebs.

There's 6 of 8 winger spots accounted for.  Tuch, Skinner, JJP, Quinn, Greenway, and either Okposo or zemgus will be back (I think both might be back, but that's a mistake). There's only 2 starting lineup spots open. Rousek probably gets one of them. 

That leaves 1 starting and 2 healthy scratches left. Olofsson, Savoie, Kulich, Jost, Outsider, and potentially the other one of Okposo or Zemgus to fill 1 starting and 2 press box spots.

Savoie makes sense because you can give him winger time but he gives you center depth. Kulich goes to Rochester. Jost is an RFA so options there. Olofsson can be traded or rotated in for whichever winger is having an off week. 

Skinner-Tage-Tuch

JJP-Cozens-Quinn

Savoie-Mitts-Greenway

Jost-Krebs-Rousek

Zemgus/Kyle, Olofsson with Kulich first callup.

That's 14 forwards. Leaves room for 7 defenders and 2 goalies to round out the 23 man roster. 

 

Defenders look like the following

Muel - Dahlin

???? - Power

Jokiharju - Lyubushkin

Stillman

There is no real room in Buffalo for Bryson so you either wave him or trade him. In the above we already have an abundance of forwards so I would package Olofsson for the defense help or you can look in UFA. If you trade Olofsson, that opens up a forward spot which is an easy UFA fill to add a different look to the bottom 6. Hanifin or some of the other names are out there to fill the spot by Power but it can't be Jokiharju if you expect playoffs. You have to upgrade that top 4 in case there is a top 4 injury. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Jack Quinn has more tools than JJP, period. They are more refined as well. 

They dont. Jack Quinn has higher upside. JJP is a 60pt player, Quinn is a 80pt player.

I appreciate that you’re so sure of what they are now and will be in the future.  History proves these types of pronouncements are most likely wrong.  Many people, including me, made similar pronouncements on Thompson, Mitts and Skinner.  All have proven incorrect.

Quinn and JJP had historical seasons in the AHL last year.  JJP is younger and is only his 2nd season in NA, yet he was nearly as productive as Quinn.  I’ll stick to the Thomas Kyrou comparison.

[LGR4GM]

Just now, dudacek said:

As far as tools go, I'm talking strictly physical. I think JJP is faster than Quinn and stronger on his skates, Jack has better hands.

Vision-wise, I think there's another level to Jack and that's why I tend to agree with your ceiling projections.

That isn't how I look at tools. I picture a box with all the different tools NHL players have and I ask which ones are in Jack's and JJP's. I find that Jack's box has more tools and Jack also knows far better how to deploy and use them. Sure JJP might be faster in a straight line but his rush patterns are one speed and predictable. Jack Quinn might be a step behind but his rush patterns are unpredictable and feature speed shifts and lane fakes that JJP doesn't have in his box. JJP has tools, more than Olofsson for example but he has fewer to pick from and uses them in simpler ways than Jack Quinn. 

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I already wrote this but will add to the defense part. 

Defenders look like the following

Muel - Dahlin

???? - Power

Jokiharju - Lyubushkin

Stillman

There is no real room in Buffalo for Bryson so you either wave him or trade him. In the above we already have an abundance of forwards so I would package Olofsson for the defense help or you can look in UFA. If you trade Olofsson, that opens up a forward spot which is an easy UFA fill to add a different look to the bottom 6. Hanifin or some of the other names are out there to fill the spot by Power but it can't be Jokiharju if you expect playoffs. You have to upgrade that top 4 in case there is a top 4 injury. 

Which is fine.  But it doesn't address how the Sabres would keep the 3HGM a thing especially if Okposo comes back.  There are people that expect the 3HGM to be back with the old head lopped off for a very young one (yours truly and you are not among that contingent); would like to know how they see that playing out.

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Question for those that think the Sabres will bring back the 3 headed goalie monster AND Kyle Okposo (at least for 16 games and presumably the whole season).  Presumably Savoie will be on the roster to start the season and IMHO there isn't a spot for Olofsson (his spot likely goes to Savoie).  1st off, for those that expect Kyle and 3 G's, do you agree that is most likely what happens with Savoie?

Still also expect the Sabres to go after a Graves or an Orlov or Hannifan, so the Sabres should have the top 4 D set, at least on paper with solid 3rd pairing guys behing them; 1 of which Granato often played 20+ minutes per game this past season.  Should the Sabres land another power forward like a Tom Wilson or a true 4C; it would seem that with 3 goalies, and Okposo that something will have to give.  Either Girgensons doesn't get a new contract (but personally expect he will get an offer) or they have to do something truly off the board to have room for Okposo and the 3HGM.  Would the Sabres be crazy enough to try to run with only 5 D (4 of which would get close to 25 minutes/game and the other 20) and dress 13 F's?  They'd pretty much need either Lybushkin or Stillman to start the year on IR as whichever one wasn't the spare 6th D would almost definitely get claimed off waivers.

Not expecting them to be that crazy.  But really don't see how they make the 3HGM and bringing Okposo back work without doing something wild like that.

Thoughts?

I think one of UPL and Comrie is dealt and wouldn't be surprised if both are.

I think Savoie is here, but sending him to juniors is the obvious solution under your scenario.

Or, if Okposo is back, you may not see your additional power forward.

[LGR4GM]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

I appreciate that you’re so sure of what they are now and will be in the future.  History proves these types of pronouncements are most likely wrong.  Many people, including me, made similar pronouncements on Thompson, Mitts and Skinner.  All have proven incorrect.

Quinn and JJP had historical seasons in the AHL last year.  JJP is younger and is only his 2nd season in NA, yet he was nearly as productive as Quinn.  I’ll stick to the Thomas Kyrou comparison.

You are ignoring Quinn's development but we shall see. I predict Jack Quinn will outproduce JJP next year by let's say 10+ points.

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Which is fine.  But it doesn't address how the Sabres would keep the 3HGM a thing especially if Okposo comes back.  There are people that expect the 3HGM to be back with the old head lopped off for a very young one (yours truly and you are not among that contingent); would like to know how they see that playing out.

They don't. 

[Taro T]

Just now, dudacek said:

I think one of UPL and Comrie is dealt and wouldn't be surprised if both are.

I think Savoie is here, but sending him to juniors is the obvious solution under your scenario.

Or, if Okposo is back, you may not see your additional power forward.

To the 1st sentence, that is yours truly's expectation as well.  A goalie (Varlamov?) gets brought in, one of UPL or Comrie gets traded (most likely UPL as he likely has more trade value) and the other is loaned to Ra-cha-cha and hopefully clears waivers.

Agree that not bringing Savoie in would be a solution, but not ideal if he is in fact ready for the NHL.

And would flat out hate the 3rd sentence coming to fruition.

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You are ignoring Quinn's development but we shall see. I predict Jack Quinn will outproduce JJP next year by let's say 10+ points.

Actually I’m not. JJP was arguably a little better down the stretch. He had 11 pts (4G) in his last 20 games.  Quinn had 8 (2g) in his last 20.  Both were lacking defensively.  JJP was -11 in those games and Quinn -13.

If they turnout as you expect (hope?), that would be a fine result, but I think you are selling JJP short.  

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

And would flat out hate the 3rd sentence coming to fruition.

I think they kinda addressed that move with Greenway and may see where that goes before adding another.

That said, how do you like this?

• Skinner Thompson Tuch
• Mittelstadt Cozens Wilson
• Greenway Compher Okposo
• Peterka Krebs Quinn
• (Savoie)
• Dahlin Samuelsson
• Power Graves
• Boosh Joki
• (Stillman)
• Levi
• (New veteran)

Feel free to mix and match as desired/ Did I miss anyone?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, dudacek said:

I think they kinda addressed that move with Greenway and may see where that goes before adding another.

That said, how do you like this?

• Skinner Thompson Tuch
• Mittelstadt Cozens Wilson
• Greenway Compher Okposo
• Peterka Krebs Quinn
• (Savoie)
• Dahlin Samuelsson
• Power Graves
• Boosh Joki
• (Stillman)
• Levi
• (New veteran)

Feel free to mix and match as desired/ Did I miss anyone?

That’s much to aggressive for KA, but one can dream.  Also if KO returns he isn’t playing above the 4th line.

I like the Graves idea and Compher, although someone cheaper (Haula?) seems more likely.

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Actually I’m not. JJP was arguably a little better down the stretch. He had 11 pts (4G) in his last 20 games.  Quinn had 8 (2g) in his last 20.  Both were lacking defensively.  JJP was -11 in those games and Quinn -13.

If they turnout as you expect (hope?), that would be a fine result, but I think you are selling JJP short.  

No, you are selling Quinn short IMO. 

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think they kinda addressed that move with Greenway and may see where that goes before adding another.

That said, how do you like this?

• Skinner Thompson Tuch
• Mittelstadt Cozens Wilson
• Greenway Compher Okposo
• Peterka Krebs Quinn
• (Savoie)
• Dahlin Samuelsson
• Power Graves
• Boosh Joki
• (Stillman)
• Levi
• (New veteran)

Feel free to mix and match as desired/ Did I miss anyone?

That would be durn near the perfect off-season IMHO.  (Though personally would rather have Girgensons back rather than Okposo as IMHO he has more in the tank.  REALLY expect Okposo to have a Pominville part 2 type season if he comes back but would be starting from a much lower floor than Jason had to fall from.)

[LabattBlue]

For those in favor of bringing back KO, Girgs, and even Jost next season…what do there 22-23 fancy stats look like?