Annual expectations thread 2022/23: #21 Kyle Okposo

[Curt]

46 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Olofsson has almost played more nhl games than the rest of those guys listed, combined. He's not a kid, he's another veteran on this team. 

Yeah, 27 years old, 4 full seasons in the SHL, 1 in the AHL, and 3 in the NHL.

He is an experienced pro hockey player in his prime, not a young guy just trying to find his way.

[Pimlach]

21 hours ago, pi2000 said:

You simply cannot give him the C as he's on an expiring contract.

KA needs to leave open the option of moving him at the deadline.

I get the connection you are making but where is this written?  Unless KA already knows he will move Kyle, I think he gets the C. 

From what I hear, they want Kyle to stay in the organization, including after his playing days.   

Another year with co captains wearing A's is possible,  meaning they are waiting for someone like Tuch, Dahlin, or TT to be ready to lead. 

Edited August 18, 2022 by Pimlach

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Olofsson has almost played more nhl games than the rest of those guys listed, combined. He's not a kid, he's another veteran on this team. 

 

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Yeah, 27 years old, 4 full seasons in the SHL, 1 in the AHL, and 3 in the NHL.

He is an experienced pro hockey player in his prime, not a young guy just trying to find his way.

That's what you took from my post about Kyle Okposo, that I think Victor Olofsson is a kid? I don't and he's obviously not.

Olofsson has played less than 200 NHL games and I think he's still got things to prove, including that he's clearly a better hockey player than Okposo, who he trailed by a 1:24 minutes a game in ice time last year.

[LGR4GM]

35 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

That's what you took from my post about Kyle Okposo, that I think Victor Olofsson is a kid? I don't and he's obviously not.

Olofsson has played less than 200 NHL games and I think he's still got things to prove, including that he's clearly a better hockey player than Okposo, who he trailed by a 1:24 minutes a game in ice time last year.

188 is less than 200.

No what I took from your post was a list of players that Okposo is the measuring stick on. You then suggested Zemgus and Hinostroza were who were there to hold a baseline. Olofsson isn't in between that and isn't a kid who has to prove he can play in the NHL. Olofsson had more points in less toi than Okposo. Okposo isn't his carrot who he has to beat out anymore than Hinostroza or Zemgus are pushing to take his job. 

[LGR4GM]

Olofsson doesn't belong in your list. 

[dudacek]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

188 is less than 200.

No what I took from your post was a list of players that Okposo is the measuring stick on. You then suggested Zemgus and Hinostroza were who were there to hold a baseline. Olofsson isn't in between that and isn't a kid who has to prove he can play in the NHL. Olofsson had more points in less toi than Okposo. Okposo isn't his carrot who he has to beat out anymore than Hinostroza or Zemgus are pushing to take his job. 

 

You think Olofsson is clearly established in the lineup pecking order as a top 6 player ahead of Okposo and is in no danger of losing that slot, regardless of whether he has another stretch like he did in the middle of last season?

If so, I guess we disagree.

[Curt]

13 hours ago, dudacek said:

I don't see Kyle duplicating last year's numbers at 34.

But I don't expect much of a drop-off in his 5-on-5 play. He will play hard and will play smart and he will find a way to be effective.

Some people see the need to add a veteran who the kids will have to leap over in order to earn their place.

I see Okposo as that guy. To me, he opens the season as the #4 forward behind Skinner, Thompson and Tuch.

Girgensons or Hinostroza are the stick: They're here to make sure Krebs, Cozens, Quinn, Peterka, Asplund, Olofsson and Mittelstadt play hard or they sit.

Okposo is the carrot. He is here to make sure they play well.

You want PP time? Outplay Kyle. PK time? Outplay Kyle. 15 minutes a game? Outplay Kyle. Crunch time ice time? You guessed it.

If enough of them measure up, we'll have a good team.

 

49 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

That's what you took from my post about Kyle Okposo, that I think Victor Olofsson is a kid? I don't and he's obviously not.

Olofsson has played less than 200 NHL games and I think he's still got things to prove, including that he's clearly a better hockey player than Okposo, who he trailed by a 1:24 minutes a game in ice time last year.

Full disclosure, I didn’t really read your post.  I was just agreeing with what LGR said about Olofsson.

With that said, I think that Olofsson belongs more in a grouping with guys like Skinner, Tuch and Thompson than the list of younger fairly unproven players you grouped him with.  Yes, he potentially has more to prove, but in the NHL a majority of players do.  I could easily argue that Skinner, Thompson, and Tuch also have things to prove.  Olofsson has the potential for a better season in 2022-23, but I don’t think he is any real danger of being healthy scratched in favor of Girgs or Hinostroza.  I think he is pretty clearly one of the top 4 wingers on the Sabres.

[LGR4GM]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

You think Olofsson is clearly established in the lineup pecking order as a top 6 player ahead of Okposo and is in no danger of losing that slot, regardless of whether he has another stretch like he did in the middle of last season?

If so, I guess we disagree.

We most certainly disagree that a player who outscored Okposo last year while having a slump is in danger of losing his slot.

[MattPie]

8 minutes ago, Curt said:

With that said, I think that Olofsson belongs more in a grouping with guys like Skinner, Tuch and Thompson than the list of younger fairly unproven players you grouped him with.  Yes, he potentially has more to prove, but in the NHL a majority of players do.  I could easily argue that Skinner, Thompson, and Tuch also have things to prove.  Olofsson has the potential for a better season in 2022-23, but I don’t think he is any real danger of being healthy scratched in favor of Girgs or Hinostroza.  I think he is pretty clearly one of the top 4 wingers on the Sabres.

Skinner is 30, and on his post-UFA contract, I don't think he's on the list with Thompson. TNT needs to follow up last year with at least 2/3s of the production before I believe he's for real.

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

We most certainly disagree that a player who outscored Okposo last year while having a slump is in danger of losing his slot.

I can't imagine Olofsson being a scratch more than a game or two as a wake-up call, I agree with you.

[dudacek]

41 minutes ago, MattPie said:

 

I can't imagine Olofsson being a scratch more than a game or two as a wake-up call.

Neither can I.

There seems to be a lot of people reading things into my posts that I didn't mean to suggest, so I guess that's on me for not communicating clearly enough.

To clarify, I think Olofsson is behind Okposo in the ice-time pecking order, but is perfectly capable of playing well enough to pass him, even if Okposo maintains his current level of play. I think that is true of many Sabres. Therefore, I see Okposo as a signpost player: the more players who surpass him this season, the better the season will be.

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Neither can I.

There seems to be a lot of people reading things into my posts that I didn't mean to suggest, so I guess that's on me for not communicating clearly enough.

To clarify, I think Olofsson is behind Okposo in the ice-time pecking order, but is perfectly capable of playing well enough to pass him, even if Okposo maintains his current level of play. I think that is true of many Sabres. Therefore, I see Okposo as a signpost player: the more players who surpass him this season, the better the season will be.

Using toi as a "pecking order" is strange to me. 

[sabresparaavida]

34 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Neither can I.

There seems to be a lot of people reading things into my posts that I didn't mean to suggest, so I guess that's on me for not communicating clearly enough.

To clarify, I think Olofsson is behind Okposo in the ice-time pecking order, but is perfectly capable of playing well enough to pass him, even if Okposo maintains his current level of play. I think that is true of many Sabres. Therefore, I see Okposo as a signpost player: the more players who surpass him this season, the better the season will be.

Really the only reason Oloffson is behind Okposo in TOI is due to Okposo playing a significant roll on the penalty kill. Okposo averaged 1:24.5 penalty kill minutes a game, whereas Oloffson had just under a minute of PK time over the whole season. 

[dudacek]

40 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Using toi as a "pecking order" is strange to me. 

I find this strange. What better measure do we have of how useful a coach feels a player is than the amount he utilizes him?

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I find this strange. What better measure do we have of how useful a coach feels a player is than the amount he utilizes him?

If I'm being honest, I don't even care enough to debate this. You do you. 

[SwampD]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Using toi as a "pecking order" is strange to me. 

You’re kidding, right?

[LGR4GM]

29 minutes ago, SwampD said:

You’re kidding, right?

Changed my mind. 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I find this strange. What better measure do we have of how useful a coach feels a player is than the amount he utilizes him?

 

31 minutes ago, SwampD said:

You’re kidding, right?

 

1 hour ago, sabresparaavida said:

Really the only reason Oloffson is behind Okposo in TOI is due to Okposo playing a significant roll on the penalty kill. Okposo averaged 1:24.5 penalty kill minutes a game, whereas Oloffson had just under a minute of PK time over the whole season. 

Okposo isn't above olofsson this season because of a 1 minute toi difference from last season. 

@sabresparaavida already did the work to show why the difference exists. 

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

Okposo isn't above olofsson this season because of a 1 minute toi difference from last season. 

@sabresparaavida already did the work to show why the difference exists. 

So minutes on the PK are less meaningful, or shouldn’t count as part of a player’s value?

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So minutes on the PK are less meaningful, or shouldn’t count as part of a player’s value?

I honestly don't care anymore. 

[triumph_communes]

He’s already ‘dad’ and giving someone else the C isn’t going to change that. 
 

Im really glad he finally got over his head scramble and was serviceable last season. I’d expect him to maintain course. 
 

Still think it’s a mistake to give him the C. Let him wear the A and nobody the C and let the natural young leader step into it when they’re ready. Don’t repeat both Pominville nor Eichel, we’ve waited this long. 

[Doohickie]

On 8/16/2022 at 11:35 PM, dudacek said:

After 2 years of mildly disappointing play, a scary, life-altering injury, and 2 subsequent years where Ralph Krueger tried to use him as the NHL’s most overpaid 4th-line grinder, Kyle Okposo finally emerged in the 6th season of a 7-year contract as a key member of a reasonably likeable Buffalo Sabres team.

Not only did the man teammates called “Dad” become an articulate ambassador for the beginnings of the reforging of a renewed connection with a jaded Buffalo fanbase, and a clear leader for the most unified dressing room the Sabres had shown in years, he also reignited his offence with his best numbers in six years. Skating in all situations for an average of 16:47 a night, Okposo finished 29th among all NHL right wings in points, and 24th in goals.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=93992

As the franchise drops hints he might be on the verge of being named captain, Okposo enters the last year of his contract facing questions about whether he can repeat his renaissance on and off the ice and be a glue guy for a team on the rise.

What do you expect from him this year?

(Last year’s takes here):

 

I looked at my prediction for last year and I was pretty close:  He scored 21 goals to beat my prediction of 20, but he didn't win the Masterson Trophy (he should have though).

For this year, I'll say another 20 goal season.

[sabresparaavida]

58 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So minutes on the PK are less meaningful, or shouldn’t count as part of a player’s value?

Wasn't this a discussion of where they slotted in the lineup (and what lines they slot on)? If a 3rd liner has enough PK time that he is in your top 6 of forwards in ice time, that doesn't really make him a second liner. Now that wasn't the case with Okposo last year, as he was a second liner for us (I believe in terms of EV ice time), but it could be the case next year. 

Being good on the PK does count as part of a player's value, but minutes on the PK don't really reflect where they slot in the lineup for the rest of the game. Oloffson slotted about equal to Okposo in terms of ice time outside of the PK. 

[sabresparaavida]

I'm expecting about 40 points in a middle 6 roll. I think his power play time goes down by about half, and his even strength dips slightly, while his PK time remains about the same. Im thinking he ends up about 6th in Sabres forwards in TOI/G. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, sabresparaavida said:

Wasn't this a discussion of where they slotted in the lineup (and what lines they slot on)? If a 3rd liner has enough PK time that he is in your top 6 of forwards in ice time, that doesn't really make him a second liner. Now that wasn't the case with Okposo last year, as he was a second liner for us (I believe in terms of EV ice time), but it could be the case next year. 

Being good on the PK does count as part of a player's value, but minutes on the PK don't really reflect where they slot in the lineup for the rest of the game. Oloffson slotted about equal to Okposo in terms of ice time outside of the PK. 

It wasn’t to my mind, at least not in the way you’ve broken it down, but this is a great explanation of your thought process and a good reminder to me that not everyone frames their concept of line-up building the same way. Thank you.

Edited August 18, 2022 by dudacek

[Thorny]

11 hours ago, Curt said:

Yeah, 27 years old, 4 full seasons in the SHL, 1 in the AHL, and 3 in the NHL.

He is an experienced pro hockey player in his prime, not a young guy just trying to find his way.

And one of our best forwards. He’s not here to be pushed, he’s the one the others need to push past.