Lineup 2021-22

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

I did, he's a fantastic role player, PK, faceoffs, excels defensively, smart.... every team needs a few of those guys. 

Anybody who's played the game knows It's not just about points.   You need glue guys.

All he does is get caved in his own zone 

At even strength, where the majority of the game is played. We can do way, way better. 

His line this year is quite literally the worst line in hockey 

[LGR4GM]

Reinhart: 51.81cf% and 51.17xGF% at even. 

If he gets caved in the shot metrics don't show it. 

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

All he does is get caved in his own zone 

Pretty much the entire team is getting caved in most nights. They have been shutout 6 times and only have 6 wins. 

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Reinhart: 51.81cf% and 51.17xGF% at even. 

If he gets caved in the shot metrics don't show it. 

Pretty much the entire team is getting caved in most nights. They have been shutout 6 times and only have 6 wins. 

Are you sure you really want to defend Eakin?

That's who the post I quoted was referring to

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Show me where he's a -8 because of ENG against.   You know this for a fact?  smh

BTW, still waiting for the statistical evidence that shows Sam is a net positive for the team at ES.

 

 

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I am waiting for you to prove that TRpm tells us anything. 

Show me that his -20 is not impacted significantly by the 8 empty net goals. +/- simply measures goals for an against at even strengths. Empty goals happen at even strength and the Sabres have 8 against. How has that impacted your number which claims Sam is the worst forward on the team?

I will just tell you and save everyone time. 

5 goals against for Reinhart on empty nets.

Staal has 3.

 

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Are you sure you really want to defend Eakin?

That's who the post I quoted was referring to

No but I think regardless of player we need to be very careful of who is good and bad on this team because the team as a unit is very bad. Some decent players are being dragged down. Not saying Eakin is one considering the signs suggest he was bad the year before as well. 

[pi2000]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I am waiting for you to prove that TRpm tells us anything. 

Show me that his -20 is not impacted significantly by the 8 empty net goals. +/- simply measures goals for an against at even strengths. Empty goals happen at even strength and the Sabres have 8 against. How has that impacted your number which claims Sam is the worst forward on the team?

When did I say he's worst forward on the team?   He's clearly not. 

However, again, he gets scored on at a higher rate at ES than any other forward on the team.  

To humor you, if we take away the 8 ENG's against.   The team ES goal differential drops from -42 to -34.     I'm gonna be generous and say Sam was on the ice for 6 of those 8 ENG against.     That drops his +/- from -20 to -14.     

His expected +/- drops from -12.3 to -9.9 (-34 team ES GD x 29.2% Sam's ES %min).   His TRpm drops for -7.75 to -4.1, great.

BUT with TRpm you can't do it a vacuum, so you do the same for Dahlin, Hall, Olofsson, and Staal.... and Sam still gets scored on at a higher rate at ES than anybody else on team not name Dahlin.

[pi2000]

24 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Reinhart: 51.81cf% and 51.17xGF% at even. 

If he gets caved in the shot metrics don't show it. 

Pretty much the entire team is getting caved in most nights. They have been shutout 6 times and only have 6 wins. 

The metrics might not show it, but guess what... the score does... which is the only thing that counts. 

[Randall Flagg]

Yeah sorry pi, eakin is dreadful 

[dudacek]

What I would do with the current roster:

Eichel: under contract for five more years at good value; hold on to him unless he wants a trade, or someone offers you something that will transform the franchise

Reinhart and Risto: headed for UFA in the summer of ‘22, in desperate need of a new environment, decent value; trade both for good hockey players of similar talent and age

Staal: pending UFA; trade him for the best available asset as soon as possible and get him away from this franchise

Skinner: under contract for six more years at terrible value; embrace him for who his is and put him in a position to succeed.

Hall: pending UFA; trade him for the best prospect offered; Do not consider re-signing him for any more than you would any declining 10-15 goal scorer.

Olofsson: under contract for another year at good value; entertain offers, if you can flip him for a competitive 2-way middle-six or middle-pairing ES guy, do it

Montour: pending UFA; trade him for the best available offer

McCabe: pending UFA; try to re-sign him to a fair offer, don’t count on him taking it

Ullmark: pending UFA; try to re-sign him to a good offer in the context of the overall goalie market

Eakin: under contract for another year on a bad but affordable contract; trade him if anyone will take him, do the math on buying him out and re-signing Sheahan to a league-minimum contract, or failing both of those, pencil him in as the 4C/PK

Sheahan: pending UFA; trade him if you get a reasonable offer, offer him a league minimum contract if you can find a way to dump Eakin. Let him walk otherwise. He’s fine in his role, but we can’t have too many guys like that.

Lazar: under contract for another year at good value; pencil him in as the 13th forward

Girgensons: under contract for two more years at an inflated but affordable price; consider your options but pencil him in as a useful bottom-6 regular.

Rieder: pending UFA; trade him if you get a reasonable offer; let him walk, he’s fine in his role, but not with Lazar, Eakin, Girgs and Asplund already here

Okposo: overpaid for two more years on a bad contract; have a frank talk with him that he will have to earn a roster spot next year and will likely be in Rochester, offer him a job in the organization to retire, or the opportunity to shop himself around the league, treat him with the respect he deserves

Davidson/Irwin: pending UFAs; trade them if you get a reasonable offer, do not re-sign

Miller: mildly overpaid for another year; shop him for fair value, hope Seattle takes him, understand that he might be in Buffalo until next years deadline.

Bryson: under contract on his ELC; let him compete for a job in the top six, starting now

Jokiharju: pending RFA; sign him to a cheap bridge deal, let him compete for a job in the top six, starting now

Dahlin: pending RFA;  offer him six years, $30 million, sign him to a cheap bridge deal if he doesn’t take it. Consider offers, but unless somebody knocks your socks off, make it a priority to sign a coach and a partner to maximize his potential.

Cozens: under contract on his ELC; play him in the middle six with players who can help him succeed.

Mittelstadt: pending RFA; sign him to a cheap deal, let him compete for a job in the middle six, starting now, don’t shop him, but don’t be afraid to throw him in as a piece to cement a deal.

Thompson: under a reasonable contract; don’t shop him, but don’t be afraid to throw him in as a piece to cement a deal, let him compete for a job in the middle six, starting now

Asplund: pending UFA; sign him to a cheap deal, let him compete for a job in the bottom six, starting now

Hutton/Johansson: pending UFAs; accept any reasonable offer, do not re-sign.

Edited March 19, 2021 by dudacek

[Thorny]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

What I would do with the current roster:

Eichel: under contract for five more years at good value; hold on to him unless he wants a trade, or someone offers you something that will transform the franchise

Reinhart and Risto: headed for UFA in the summer of ‘22, in desperate need of a new environment, decent value; trade both for good hockey players of similar talent and age

Staal: pending UFA; trade him for the best available asset as soon as possible and get him away from this franchise

Skinner: under contract for six more years at terrible value; embrace him for who his is and put him in a position to succeed.

Hall: pending UFA; trade him for the best prospect offered; Do not consider re-signing him for any more than you would any declining 10-15 goal scorer.

Olofsson: under contract for another year at good value; entertain offers, if you can flip him for a competitive 2-way middle-six or middle-pairing ES guy, do it

Montour: pending UFA; trade him for the best available offer

McCabe: pending UFA; try to re-sign him to a fair offer, don’t count on him taking it

Ullmark: pending UFA; try to re-sign him to a good offer in the context of the overall goalie market

Eakin: under contract for another year on a bad but affordable contract; trade him if anyone will take him, do the math on buying him out and re-signing Sheahan to a league-minimum contract, or failing both of those, pencil him in as the 4C/PK

Sheahan: pending UFA; trade him if you get a reasonable offer, offer him a league minimum contract if you can find a way to dump Eakin. Let him walk otherwise. He’s fine in his role, but we can’t have too many guys like that.

Lazar: under contract for another year at good value; pencil him in as the 13th forward

Girgensons: under contract for two more years at an inflated but affordable price; consider your options but pencil him in as a useful bottom-6 regular.

Rieder: pending UFA; trade him if you get a reasonable offer; let him walk, he’s fine in his role, but not with Lazar, Eakin, Girgs and Asplund already here

Okposo: overpaid for two more years on a bad contract; have a frank talk with him that he will have to earn a roster spot next year and will likely be in Rochester, offer him a job in the organization to retire, or the opportunity to shop himself around the league, treat him with the respect he deserves

Davidson/Irwin: pending UFAs; trade them if you get a reasonable offer, do not re-sign

Miller: mildly overpaid for another year; shop him for fair value, hope Seattle takes him, understand that he might be in Buffalo until next years deadline.

Bryson: under contract on his ELC; let him compete for a job in the top six, starting now

Jokiharju: pending RFA; sign him to a cheap bridge deal, let him compete for a job in the top six, starting now

Dahlin: pending RFA;  offer him six years, $30 million, sign him to a cheap bridge deal if he doesn’t take it. Consider offers, but unless somebody knocks your socks off, make it a priority to sign a coach and a partner to maximize his potential.

Cozens: under contract on his ELC; play him in the middle six with players who can help him succeed.

Mittelstadt: pending RFA; sign him to a cheap deal, let him compete for a job in the middle six, starting now, don’t shop him, but don’t be afraid to throw him in as a piece to cement a deal.

Thompson: under a reasonable contract; don’t shop him, but don’t be afraid to throw him in as a piece to cement a deal, let him compete for a job in the middle six, starting now

Asplund: pending UFA; sign him to a cheap deal, let him compete for a job in the bottom six, starting now

Hutton/Johansson: pending UFAs; accept any reasonable offer, do not re-sign.

Agree with everything here really except trading Sam.

And I'd add "at centre" to Cozens 

Good stuff. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

@dudacek and @thorny

I'm going to respectfully disagree.  After more thought on the matter I think there are 4 pillars on this team that are not expendable in any circumstances regardless of the losing.  They are Dahlin, Eichel, Risto and Cozens.  I like Sam, but the more I think on it the more I believe he is replaceable.

It's time for a Florida Panther type reset.  They kept Barkov, Ekblad and a few others and brought in 13 new players.  I'm thinking that is what we need here regardless of cost.  Trade all the UFAs or let them walk if no interest in them, including Ullmark. Acquire two new goalies. This is change the mojo more then anything else.  Bring in the right partners for Risto (McCabe if he has an interest in re-signing) and Dahlin to build two strong D pairings and go from there.  

Right now I feel like this would be my plan.

I'm trading Hall, Staal, Montour at the deadline at a minimum

I'm letting Reider, Sheahan, Hutton, Ullmark and JoJo walk

I'm trading or waiving Girgensons, Miller, KO, Eakin and Thompson in the off-season.  I'm also trading VO and Reinhart if I get the right offers in the off-season (or deadline).

I'm re-signing my RFAs because all will be cheap to retain except Dahlin, who will get a similar deal to what Risto signed and I'd be thrilled with that.

Needs: Two goalies, a defensive D partner for Dahlin and a boat load of wingers. I may even consider a 2C depending on the evaluations of Cozens' readiness for that role.  It would be good to have a backup plan. 

Right now the only guys I have penciled in for next year are Skinner, Eichel, Risto, McCabe, Cozens and Dahlin.  That leaves 14 starting jobs up for grabs.  I will give kids (MItts, Asplund, R2, Borgen, Bryson and Jokiharju) plus Lazar a chance to earn jobs toward the bottom of the lineup.  

 

 

 

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@dudacek and @thorny

I'm going to respectfully disagree.  After more thought on the matter I think there are 4 pillars on this team that are not expendable in any circumstances regardless of the losing.  They are Dahlin, Eichel, Risto and Cozens.  I like Sam, but the more I think on it the more I believe he is replaceable.

It's time for a Florida Panther type reset.  They kept Barkov, Ekblad and a few others and brought in 13 new players.  I'm thinking that is what we need here regardless of cost.  Trade all the UFAs or let them walk if no interest in them, including Ullmark. Acquire two new goalies. This is change the mojo more then anything else.  Bring in the right partners for Risto (McCabe if he has an interest in re-signing) and Dahlin to build two strong D pairings and go from there.  

Right now I feel like this would be my plan.

I'm trading Hall, Staal, Montour at the deadline at a minimum

I'm letting Reider, Sheahan, Hutton, Ullmark and JoJo walk

I'm trading or waiving Girgensons, Miller, KO, Eakin and Thompson in the off-season.  I'm also trading VO and Reinhart if I get the right offers in the off-season (or deadline).

I'm re-signing my RFAs because all will be cheap to retain except Dahlin, who will get a similar deal to what Risto signed and I'd be thrilled with that.

Needs: Two goalies, a defensive D partner for Dahlin and a boat load of wingers. I may even consider a 2C depending on the evaluations of Cozens' readiness for that role.  It would be good to have a backup plan. 

Right now the only guys I have penciled in for next year are Skinner, Eichel, Risto, McCabe, Cozens and Dahlin.  That leaves 14 starting jobs up for grabs.  I will give kids (MItts, Asplund, R2, Borgen, Bryson and Jokiharju) plus Lazar a chance to earn jobs toward the bottom of the lineup.  

 

 

 

Looks to me like we're more than 95 per cent in agreement 😁

[GASabresIUFAN]

23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Looks to me like we're more than 95 per cent in agreement 😁

The biggest difference is you are willing to entertain offers for Risto and Eichel while I’m not.  I agree Risto may want to bolt after next season, but if the team actually makes progress and he is a big part, I think he’d prefer to stay.  The team making progress is a big if.  For all his faults Risto never lacks for effort and with the right partner and coach, that will be a huge piece of the puzzle.

How many goals have we scored since Jack went out 5 on 5 and on the PP? The offense was bad before, but now there is next to nothing.  

 

[Thorny]

Even in the multi universe theory there’s no world where I keep Risto before Reinhart 

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The biggest difference is you are willing to entertain offers for Risto and Eichel while I’m not.  I agree Risto may want to bolt after next season, but if the team actually makes progress and he is a big part, I think he’d prefer to stay.  The team making progress is a big if.  For all his faults Risto never lacks for effort and with the right partner and coach, that will be a huge piece of the puzzle.

How many goals have we scored since Jack went out 5 on 5 and on the PP? The offense was bad before, but now there is next to nothing.  

 

I didn’t really read @dudacek‘s stance on Eichel as a particular willingness to “entertain offers”. 

More like “keep him if it’s up to us, unless you get a ridiculously good offer” 

But that should really be any great player 

Edited March 19, 2021 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 3/19/2021 at 11:00 AM, Thorny said:

Even in the multi universe theory there’s no world where I keep Risto before Reinhart 

I didn’t really read @dudacek‘s stance on Eichel as a particular willingness to “entertain offers”. 

More like “keep him if it’s up to us, unless you get a ridiculously good offer” 

But that should really be any great player 

I think @dudacek said 

Quote

 hold on to him unless he wants a trade

He "forces" the issue there is zero chance we get any real value for him.  Honestly he just isn't replaceable.  He was the reason for the tank.  We have to find a way to make it work for both parties.  

The first steps roster wise toward fixing the problem is getting a real 2C, a partner for Dahlin and real goaltending.  Cozens isn't ready for that burden.  Interestingly that is a article in the Athletic that Ryan Strome (NYR) is available.  This is crazy imho but here is the quote.

Quote

 

Ryan Strome: I think he will be the most likely Ranger of note to move at the deadline. The Rangers signed him for two years to A) avoid arbitration and B)  have a trade-deadline asset with one more year of control at a reasonable $4.5 million.

He is that, and he would be a good fit on a bunch of contending teams. He’s just a good team guy with some offensive skills, a power-play forward, a good skater, who can play up in the lineup but is probably a third-line center on a contender. That type is often in demand at the deadline, and Strome is still relatively young (he turns 28 in June) and experienced (more than 500 NHL games).

Mostly, the Rangers figure to be hunting for bigger game in the form of a top-two center in the offseason, making Strome abundantly expendable — not to mention that they’ll certainly be able to find use for his cap hit if he’s moved. But if he isn’t moved on April 12, we can cut and paste these paragraphs at the next deadline. Either way, Strome won’t bring back a first-rounder. Maybe a second plus a lower-level young player/prospect?

 

I'd give them a 2nd and a prospect right now.  He is a rental for this season and next, but that gives Cozens another year to grow into the role.  A spin of Eichel, Strome, Cozens, Lazar would be the best we'd have in a decade.  

[Randall Flagg]

Here's the thing. The Sabres usually have 1 or 2 things that work well in a given season. They typically spend the following offseason completely dismantling those things for no reason whatsoever, so that they can whip up something shoddy and hope that when 12 different things get the best case scenario, they can flirt with a playoff spot. Even if they keep the pieces of the thing that worked, they rarely go back to it for years until pieces have been irreparably broken

Well, we are being saved from our own stupidity this summer. Because nothing works this year! Maybe with no outlet for our self-destructive tendencies, we stumble into something competent?

[Curt]

10 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Here's the thing. The Sabres usually have 1 or 2 things that work well in a given season. They typically spend the following offseason completely dismantling those things for no reason whatsoever, so that they can whip up something shoddy and hope that when 12 different things get the best case scenario, they can flirt with a playoff spot. Even if they keep the pieces of the thing that worked, they rarely go back to it for years until pieces have been irreparably broken

Well, we are being saved from our own stupidity this summer. Because nothing works this year! Maybe with no outlet for our self-destructive tendencies, we stumble into something competent?

This is the type of in depth analysis that I come to SabreSpace for.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Voting so far

16 votes - Reinhart, Cozens, Bryson, and Borgen - Boy we like the kids. I guess hope spring eternal.

15 Votes - Ullmark and Dahlin

14 Votes - McCabe and Eichel

13 Votes - Ristolainen

12 Votes - Olofsson

11 Votes - Lazar

So we want to keep the core together despite going 0-15 in the last 15 games.  Mitts, Skinner and Jokiharju are at 10 votes each.

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Voting so far

16 votes - Reinhart, Cozens, Bryson, and Borgen - Boy we like the kids. I guess hope spring eternal.

15 Votes - Ullmark and Dahlin

14 Votes - McCabe and Eichel

13 Votes - Ristolainen

12 Votes - Olofsson

11 Votes - Lazar

So we want to keep the core together despite going 0-15 in the last 15 games.  Mitts, Skinner and Jokiharju are at 10 votes each.

In Skinner’s case I voted for him because I’m not willing to give up what we’d need to in order to trade him.

 

If anything, maybe make a separate poll that puts every player on an equal footing, no contractual restrictions. Just who would you want on your team.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, thewookie1 said:

In Skinner’s case I voted for him because I’m not willing to give up what we’d need to in order to trade him.

 

If anything, maybe make a separate poll that puts every player on an equal footing, no contractual restrictions. Just who would you want on your team.

I did that.  I simply asked who you want back next year.  Nothing about contracts, other then if they were signed, RFAs or UFAs.  No cap mentioned.  The reason contract status was mentioned was to determine who we wanted management to re-sign like Ullmark and McCabe.

[GASabresIUFAN]

FYI

Scoring with Jack in the lineup 2.24 goal per games

Scoring without Jack 1.54

Interesting.  

[Berg]

I start to hate them all...Only Tokarski, Olofsson, Cozens and maybe 2 others tried something 

[inkman]

24 minutes ago, Berg said:

I start to hate them all...Only Tokarski, Olofsson, Cozens and maybe 2 others tried something 

Why do you want to keep a 31 year old journeymen AHL goalie?

[Thorny]

38 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

FYI

Scoring with an injured Jack in the lineup 2.24 goal per games

Scoring without an injured Jack 1.54

Interesting.  

FTFY 

Edited March 26, 2021 by Thorny

[Berg]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

Why do you want to keep a 31 year old journeymen AHL goalie?

31 is not age for goalie.  The main thing is the will to win..

[Berg]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

Why do you want to keep a 31 year old journeymen AHL goalie?

Main squad have 16 loses in a raw. Even journeymen can do better..