Jeff Skinner - The Poll

[mjd1001]

22 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

I personally hate “on pace for” discussions because they almost never line up with exactly what happens by the time the season ends. That being said … he’s having a good season so far (key word). He needs to continue it without going cold in order to finish the season and consider it a “good season”.  IF he gets injured for a few games, or IF he goes cold for 10 games, it will most likely be viewed as another “bad season” for Skinner.

I don't use the 'on pace' thing to predict where a player will end up, but it is a good snapshot of their production on a 'per game' basis in terms we all know.

I think the bigger thing with anyone on the Sabres team (Tage, Skinner, etc) is that we are using that 'on pace' thing and comparing it to other years, without looking at just how much scoring is up in the NHL this year. 36 goal pace is not what it used to be even a couple years ago.....

That 36 goal pace has Skinner ties for 41st-43rd in the league right now. Yep, 40 players are 'on pace' for more than a 36 goal per 82 season.  You want to crack the top 20?  Better be on a 44 goal pace.  Want to break into the top 10?  48 goal pace.

I'm happy with Skinner turning things around, and producing the way he is...it is a heck of a lot better for the Sabres than what he was doing for the last 1.5 seasons before this one.  Just there still is room to 'pick up the scoring pace', certainly to come close to justifying his cap hit.

[IKnowPhysics]

42 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

I personally hate “on pace for” discussions because they almost never line up with exactly what happens by the time the season ends. That being said … he’s having a good season so far (key word). He needs to continue it without going cold in order to finish the season and consider it a “good season”.  IF he gets injured for a few games, or IF he goes cold for 10 games, it will most likely be viewed as another “bad season” for Skinner.

This is precisely why "on pace" is used, so one can describe performance without it being convoluted by games absent.  We all know the shortcomings of extrapolating future performance from past performance, but in conversation, it's still easier to understand and compare goals-per-82-games than spouting GF/60.  And if he goes cold, his pace will change.

But, alright, let's do the other thing.

Among players with more than 200min of 5v5 (~15GP), Jeff's GF/60 is 1.46, which puts him at 14th best in the league.  Ralph Krueger's P% last season was 0.285, which is worse than the Sabres worst P% (2014) of 0.317.

[Zamboni]

9 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

This is precisely why "on pace" is used, so one can describe performance without it being convoluted by games absent.  We all know the shortcomings of extrapolating future performance from past performance, but in conversation, it's still easier to understand and compare goals-per-82-games than spouting GF/60.  And if he goes cold, his pace will change.

But, alright, let's do the other thing.

Among players with more than 200min of 5v5 (~15GP), Jeff's GF/60 is 1.46, which puts him at 14th best in the league.  Ralph Krueger's P% last season was 0.285, which is worse than the Sabres worst P% (2014) of 0.317.

I’m not nitpicking others who want to talk about on pace. I was just lending an opinion on why I don’t care for it. That’s all 👍🏼 

[Taro T]

One thing about Skinner since being paired w/ Tuch is he is doing something he's never demonstrated any adeptness at previously.  He is actually making GOOD passes to Alex.

No idea why that is, but as long as it continues, keep the 2 together.  It's not surprising that Tuch can pass to Jeff.  The inverse is quite surprising and hopefully can become habit.

[Doohickie]

14 minutes ago, Taro T said:

One thing about Skinner since being paired w/ Tuch is he is doing something he's never demonstrated any adeptness at previously.  He is actually making GOOD passes to Alex.

No idea why that is, but as long as it continues, keep the 2 together.  It's not surprising that Tuch can pass to Jeff.  The inverse is quite surprising and hopefully can become habit.

Maybe he's got bad eyes and can only pass to big targets.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

One thing about Skinner since being paired w/ Tuch is he is doing something he's never demonstrated any adeptness at previously.  He is actually making GOOD passes to Alex.

No idea why that is, but as long as it continues, keep the 2 together.  It's not surprising that Tuch can pass to Jeff.  The inverse is quite surprising and hopefully can become habit.

The 3rd goal against Columbus was so atypical of what I’m used to from Skinner.

When Tage reversed up the boards, Skinner’s typical move would have been to go to the net for a pass or a rebound; he’s typically always so focused on scoring goals himself.

Instead, he glided into the space Tage created and made himself available for a pass away from the typical scoring zone.

Then, instead of firing a shot from the corner - Jeff always shoots any time he’s within 30 feet from the net, regardless of traffic or angle - he slid an immediate pass on the tape to Tuch.

It was a cannily crafted and perfectly executed smart hockey play calculated so his teammate could score a goal. Reinhart-esque, or dare I say Krebsian.

Entirely contrary to the types of plays he’s been making for the past 2 years that used to drive me nuts about his game.

Beautiful to see.

[MattPie]

13 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

This is precisely why "on pace" is used, so one can describe performance without it being convoluted by games absent.  We all know the shortcomings of extrapolating future performance from past performance, but in conversation, it's still easier to understand and compare goals-per-82-games than spouting GF/60.  And if he goes cold, his pace will change.

But, alright, let's do the other thing.

Among players with more than 200min of 5v5 (~15GP), Jeff's GF/60 is 1.46, which puts him at 14th best in the league.  Ralph Krueger's P% last season was 0.285, which is worse than the Sabres worst P% (2014) of 0.317.

We could talk about those numbers all the time and people would learn the context, but culturally hockey is all about those per-season numbers. For instance, we know what a good GAA (even if it's a flawed stat), SV%, or (team) P% look like. Using GF/60 or points per game or whatever could be fine if collectively the hockey world started treating them like batting average or ERA in baseball. (I'm surely showing my baseball ignorance in those examples)

10 hours ago, dudacek said:

It was a cannily crafted and perfectly executed smart hockey play calculated so his teammate could score a goal. Reinhart-esque, or dare I say Krebsian.

Entirely contrary to the types of plays he’s been making for the past 2 years that used to drive me nuts about his game.

Beautiful to see.

Question is, did he break out the giant grin and point at teammates in celebration?

[GASabresIUFAN]

20 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I don't use the 'on pace' thing to predict where a player will end up, but it is a good snapshot of their production on a 'per game' basis in terms we all know.

I think the bigger thing with anyone on the Sabres team (Tage, Skinner, etc) is that we are using that 'on pace' thing and comparing it to other years, without looking at just how much scoring is up in the NHL this year. 36 goal pace is not what it used to be even a couple years ago.....

That 36 goal pace has Skinner ties for 41st-43rd in the league right now. Yep, 40 players are 'on pace' for more than a 36 goal per 82 season.  You want to crack the top 20?  Better be on a 44 goal pace.  Want to break into the top 10?  48 goal pace.

I'm happy with Skinner turning things around, and producing the way he is...it is a heck of a lot better for the Sabres than what he was doing for the last 1.5 seasons before this one.  Just there still is room to 'pick up the scoring pace', certainly to come close to justifying his cap hit.

I was surprised to see how much scoring is up.  I wonder the reason.  Better players? Expansion thining the talent pool in goal and on defense? 

Regardless, no matter Skinner does, outside scoring 45-50 every season, he'll never earn that contract price.  It was a dumb contract to give him then and it's worse now.  However it's a sunk cost and we need to get everything Skinner has to give.  If he can maintain for the next few years a 30 goal 60 pt pace, then we should be thrilled with that return.  

It will be interesting to see what happens with Skinner when the team depth improves as Mitts returns, Cozens matures and we add Quinn, Krebs and JJP to the roster fulltime.  Will his production increase with a harder to defend roster or decrease as PT gets more evenly distributed over the top 3 lines.

Edited February 15, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorny]

22 hours ago, Weave said:

He’s also doing it without Jack.

And without being on the 4th line 

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I was surprised to see how much scoring is up.  I wonder the reason.  Better players? Expansion thinking the talent pool in goal and on defense? 

Regardless, no matter Skinner does, outside scoring 45-50 every season, he'll never earn that contract price.  It was a dumb contract to give him then and it's worse now.  However it's a sunk cost and we need to get everything Skinner has to give.  If he can maintain for the next few years a 30 goal 60 pt pace, then we should be thrilled with that return.  

It will be interesting to see what happens with Skinner when the team depth improves as Mitts returns, Cozens matures and we add Quinn, Krebs and JJP to the roster fulltime.  Will his production increase with a harder to defend roster or decrease as PT gets more evenly distributed over the top 3 lines.

Return to form from injury, Krueger 

[GASabresIUFAN]

29 minutes ago, Thorny said:

And without being on the 4th line 

Return to form from injury, Krueger 

He probably pullback a Dangerfield (Caddy Shack) and faked his injury so that he didn't have to play for Rasputin for a while.