Sabres, 8th overall pick: Jack Quinn

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, Gabrielor said:

I gotta say, I read a lot about him after we picked, and there was a lot of Ottawa 67ers fans who'd routinely say Quinn outplayed Rossi on nights. I think Quinn has more going for him than I gave credit for.

 

I still think Rossi is going to be a star, and we'll regret passing on him.

Rooting for Quinn though, just like I genuinely rooted for Nylander after hating that pick.

I will say that Quinn can be better than Rossi. Idk if he will be but there's the talent there to be. 

[Gabrielor]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

I will say that Quinn can be better than Rossi. Idk if he will be but there's the talent there to be. 

Rossi definitely took a Briere/Drury matchup role on that team, which is to say, was the focus of the opposition to stop. Meanwhile, Quinn definitely found himself in the Vanek-Roy-Afinogenov sweet-spot of good matchups. I think that at least partially explains why 67ers fans probably loved Quinn over Rossi some nights.

[dudacek]

Eight first-rounders have already signed contracts, many of them who aren’t going to play in the NHL this year.

Id like to see the Sabres do the same with Quinn. Given the uncertainty of the OHL season, I want some control, over where he plays.

Cozens signed about three weeks after the draft last year.

[PerreaultForever]

On 10/11/2020 at 10:41 PM, Second Line Center said:

I remembered we couldn't pass on:

 

Reinhart 

Nylander 

Casey

 

That or we "loved" the picks and Samson was a cant miss #1 C.  

I'm glad we passed on the 5'9 guy for someone that appears to be developing well and can put the puck in the net.  

Well I personally didn't want any of those 3 but after he was drafted I did expect Reinhart to be a 31 C that is true but like many, I wanted Draisaitl. For Nylander, I wanted McAvoy, 2nd choice Sergachev. Instead of Casey I think I wanted Cal Foote. Don't remember. Our D still sucked at that point so i think it was him.  

As for the 5'9 guy, wasn't Briere that? 

[steveoath]

Could Ruotsalainen's (at that time) projected development be reason to pass on Rossi? Both are small centres who appear to drive the play. If we assume R2 has this year split with Ilves and Roch and Quinn goes back to juniors then maybe the arrive on the scene together.

[dudacek]

I think the Sabres passed on Rossi because they thought Quinn was going to be the better NHL player.

[LGR4GM]

21 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think the Sabres passed on Rossi because they thought Quinn was going to be the better NHL player.

Yup, they are betting that his dev curve has a steeper incline and will reach higher than Rossi's. It is a gamble but there is some evidence. 

Typically players in the CHL see a mediocre 16/17 year old season and then a really good 17/18 year old season. Rossi is the perfect example of that. Rarely do you get a mediocre 17yr old season followed by an absurd 18yr old season. Even more rare is for that 18yr season to not be a plateau but a jumping off point to even greater heights. Dev curves typically don't do that. Quinn's could. Basically a normal curve works like this, at 17 you are at 50%, at 18 you hit 80-95% and at 19 you hit 100%. Quinn's current curve at 17 was 25% and 18 was...? 75%, 85%? We just don't know because he is a the definition of a late bloomer due to his delay into being a full time hockey person and understanding the training required to physically compete at the higher level. If Quinn was only at 75% of what he could do in the OHL, that means he could hit 112 points in 62 games this year. That would put him a bit behind Rossi's 120 points. Again, it is a major gamble. The real question is was Quinn at something like 50-60% and will hit that 95% this season in the OHL. That would jump him over Rossi who is a more polished and finished product. The Sabres haven't been great at development but to beat Rossi, they will have to be with Quinn. 

FTR when I talk about 50% or 100% I mean in that league.

Edited October 28, 2020 by LGR4GM

[JohnC]

On 10/12/2020 at 9:24 AM, LGR4GM said:

I remember that in 2014 it was Bennett was the fast one, Reinhart the smart one, and Draisaitl the big one. Bennett failed, Reinhart I was hoping for more, Draisaitl fixed his skating and took off. 

Is Bennett now what he is and will continue to be or does he have more in his quiver to draw from? Is he simply maybe a better version of Curtis Lazar and will carve out a role as a gritty player who is fast?

[inkman]

41 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Is Bennett now what he is and will continue to be or does he have more in his quiver to draw from? Is he simply maybe a better version of Curtis Lazar and will carve out a role as a gritty player who is fast?

Dude is a finished product.  He’s a 30 point bottom six forward with some jam.   

[Thorny]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think the Sabres passed on Rossi because they thought Quinn was going to be the better NHL player.

A very questionable evaluation, but not indefensible like picking Quinn because we have Arttu freaking Ruotsalainen would be lol

[dudacek]

25 minutes ago, Thorny said:

A very questionable evaluation, but not indefensible like picking Quinn because we have Arttu freaking Ruotsalainen would be lol

Coincidentally, I was reading up on the Quinn thread at HF Boards.

Here's a post from July about him on the ice, echoing what we've heard elsewhere — there was a not-insignificant number of people who watched both a lot and preferred Quinn:

Watching alot of the 67's personally I am of the opinion that anyone that thinks Rossi is in another class likely didnt watch them play very often. Id take Quinn, out of the two if i had to make the decision. More elite skill and room to grow. His two way play and compete is underated.

He is a late birthday yeah but he is a very late bloomer physically. Started the 16 year old year at 5'8 and started this past season at 5'11 he is 6'1 now. He had 39 goals in his last 41 games and was the 67's best player in the second half. The reason the team was so stacked is because of him and Rossi they are by far the two best players on the team. Honestly if you are going to use the linemate excuse to prop the player up, Rossi had way better linemates.

And another from guy who scouts for a prospect site about off-the-ice, from back in April:

Aside from just being a very likeable kid, Jack was intelligent, polite and gave great answers to my questions. It was more than just a 5 minute chat..probably closer to 20 minutes mostly because he kept asking me questions.

I try to find out how the players see themselves - how do they self evaluate their own game? IMO, he nailed his own game. He knew what he lacked last year and improved on it. He also asked me a bunch of questions about his game (without me asking him if he had any questions for me) which is not common. They were intelligent questions. I won't go into detail because I tell players that it's not an interview that I will go public with all the details of our discussion (much like an NHL team scouts doesn't) - My second chat was very informal and much shorter - Part of it was that I joked with him that I had told our scouts he must've taken my advice from our first conversation because he went on a tear after that first chat. (1st interview was after the game vs Gatineau in Ottawa - 2nd chat was after Top Prospects game )

I loved his game last season and mentioned that to our guys a few times last year, so he's given me a chance to remind our guys of that plenty of times this year. lol

Easy kid to root for.

Edited October 28, 2020 by dudacek

[Thorny]

Hoss used to post a lot about the random reactions on the online message board HF. It's hard for me to put stock in much of it, at least not compared to the analysis and projections we see from other sources.

I feel like there would be a substantial amount of bias from Ottawa 67's fans due to how often nationality bias is documented even with the fans of Canadian NHL teams. "Room to grow" is more of the mystery box thinking - give me the guy who already demonstrably projects as an elite player based on production he's already committed to the tape and the stats sheet. It's the better bet. 

That's not to say Quinn won't capitalize on it, but it's far more likely Rossi is the better player based on the consensus analysis we've seen. Does anyone here say they'd have picked Quinn? Not "I trust Adams judgement", but, if you were the one picking, do you take him? I know everyone wanted Rossi pre-draft, if a bunch of answers change now, that'd be pretty smelly. 

It was off-board enough that Quinn needs to go ahead and end up the better player, or it was a poor pick (to what degree, is subject to the difference between the two players). At least if you consider yourself a proponent of "BPA". IMO it's not reasonably justifiable enough by the data present at the time of the selection for it to be saved by anything other than pure results. It's not a Reinhart situation re: Draisaitl or even a Mittelstadt situaion re: who else was available. The prevalent notion is we forgive the Reinhart selection for not being Draisaitl because of the pull of the consensus rankings at the time. It should logically follow, then, that if Quinn falls substantially short of some of the consensus selections available in his spot, the GM takes a hit. 

I'm sure he'll end up a good player. Can definitely agree he's easy to root for, most notably because he is now a Buffalo Sabre. 

Edited October 28, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorny]

Should be noted that if the scenario indeed arises where Rossi or whoever ends up the better player, it's an analysis definitely worth mentioning, yet at the same time assuredly not one worth dwelling on - *should* Quinn end up at least deserving of a top-10 selection in general, ya know?

I wouldn't find it hard to draw a distinction between "poor pick, really good player", and then proceed to bury the former part of that sentence. But we're a long away from any sort of final analysis being levied on that front. 

Should never tar and feather a GM for a single evaluation, not even Botterill when it comes to the ROR move. The very decision making process that may produce a whopper of a miss may be the thinking that facilitates some of your greatest gains. Where it became easy with Botterill is that the overall record, on ice, during his tenure, was objective crap. 

Quinn could wash out entirely and it be merely a footnote on KA's resume if the bottom line reads satisfyingly. 

Edited October 28, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Hoss used to post a lot about the random reactions on the online message board HF. It's hard for me to put stock in much of it, at least not compared to the analysis and projections we see from other sources.

I feel like there would be a substantial amount of bias from Ottawa 67's fans due to how often nationality bias is documented even with the fans of Canadian NHL teams. "Room to grow" is more of the mystery box thinking - give me the guy who already demonstrably projects as an elite player based on production he's already committed to the tape and the stats sheet. It's the better bet. 

That's not to say Quinn won't capitalize on it, but it's far more likely Rossi is the better player based on the consensus analysis we've seen. Does anyone here say they'd have picked Quinn? Not "I trust Adams judgement", but, if you were the one picking, do you take him? I know everyone wanted Rossi pre-draft, if a bunch of answers change now, that'd be pretty smelly. 

It was off-board enough that Quinn needs to go ahead and end up the better player, or it was a poor pick. At least if you consider yourself a proponent of "BPA". IMO it's not reasonably justifiable enough by the data present at the time of the selection for it to be saved by anything other than pure results. It's not a Reinhart situation re: Draisaitl or even a Mittelstadt situaion re: who else was available. 

I'm sure he'll end up a good player. Can definitely agree he's easy to root for, most notably because he is now a Buffalo Sabre. 

What was interesting about the first poster to me was he was a 67s watcher who felt Quinn passed Rossi over the course of the season. Doesn’t mean he was right, but it was a more informed opinion than any of ours and the vast majority of anyone who doesn’t scout for a living.

My opinion is well-documented on here. Of the players ranked above us, I wanted Rossi or Perfetti. Of the players ranked around us, I loved Quinn. But it’s not a very qualified opinion. I know nothing other than reading and watching a lot of commentary and rankings and interviews and highlights online. Most online opinions on prospects really don’t matter, they rarely do.

I know that Bob McKenzie’s list is generally the best reflection out there of what NHL scouts think. That consensus had Rossi at 7 and Quinn at 10. McKenzie said 9 of 10 scouts polled had Rossi between 5 and 10. The other had him at 18. He doesn’t reveal the breakdown for Quinn but said basically the order of the players slotted between 4 and 11 tended to be a lot different from scout to scout.

To me, that means there was a tier and everyone from Raymond to Askarov was in it.

I agree that the public internet consensus had Rossi well ahead of Quinn, but how much does that matter? I don’t think the actual gap in the scouting community was what you think it is. 

Some individual experts and scouts sure, and lots of fans obviously. But in terms of the overall NHL scouting community, I don’t think the bolded is any more true for Quinn over Rossi than it is for Rossi over Perfetti, or Holtz over Quinn, or Sanderson over Drysdale.

Edited October 29, 2020 by dudacek

[Thorny]

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

What was interesting about the first poster to me was he was a 67s watcher who felt Quinn passed Rossi over the course of the season. Doesn’t mean he was right, but it was a more informed opinion than any of ours and the vast majority of anyone who doesn’t scout for a living.

My opinion is well-documented on here. Of the players ranked above us, I wanted Rossi or Perfetti. Of the players ranked around us, I loved Quinn. But it’s not a very qualified opinion. I know nothing other than reading and watching a lot of commentary and rankings and interviews and highlights online. Most online opinions on prospects really don’t matter, they rarely do.

I know that Bob McKenzie’s list is generally the best reflection out there of what NHL scouts think. That consensus had Rossi at 7 and Quinn at 10. McKenzie said 9 of 10 scouts polled had Rossi between 5 and 10. The other had him at 18. He doesn’t reveal the breakdown for Quinn but said basically the order of the players slotted between 4 and 11 tended to be a lot different from scout to scout.

To me, that means there was a tier and everyone from Raymond to Askarov was in it.

I agree that the public internet consensus had Rossi well ahead of Quinn, but how much does that matter? I don’t think the actual gap in the scouting community was what you think it is. 

Some individual experts and scouts sure, and lots of fans obviously. But in terms of the overall NHL scouting community, I don’t think the bolded is any more true for Quinn over Rossi than it is for Rossi over Perfetti, or Holtz over Quinn, or Sanderson over Drysdale.

The consensus from the professional scouts and draft watchers and scouting bodies and rank compilers was also decidedly Rossi, though. I'm not really putting a lot of stock in any of the fan garble. @LGR4GM obviously knows his stuff, but he has uncommon knowledge in this regard. 

The second bold - there was a decided gap. I understand the gap in raw numbers isn't massive, but when a considerable *amount* of outlets almost invariably have one player higher than the other, even if only by a few spots, that also speaks to a consensus gap. It's not *just* the raw difference in rank, it's how prevalent the ranking of one over the other was. 

A two or three spot gap is not insignificant when that analysis bears itself out over a large sample size. A few spots, yes, but a LOT of people agreed there was a few spots, and few had the trend reversed. That speaks to the strength of consensus. It's this more so that I am referring to when I speak of a clear consensus gap, I'm not trying to say that Rossi was invariably ranked a ton of spots higher. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The consensus from the professional scouts and draft watchers and scouting bodies and rank compilers was also decidedly Rossi, though. I'm not really putting a lot of stock in any of the fan garble. @LGR4GM obviously knows his stuff, but he has uncommon knowledge in this regard. 

The second bold - there was a decided gap. 

Where? Not with McKenzie’s 10 scouts. Not with the scouts Wheeler and Pronman talked to. Not with Craig Button if he can still be considered a pro.

Or maybe I need to see how you define decided: Jokiharju over Pilut decided? Montour over Miller decided?

Edited October 29, 2020 by dudacek

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Where? Not with McKenzie’s 10 scouts. Not with the scouts Wheeler and Pronman talked to. Not with Craig Button if he can still be considered a pro.

Or maybe I need to see how you define decided: Jokiharju over Pilut decided? Montour over Miller decided?

We converse so often I'm surprised you haven't noticed I fiddle with and edit my posts almost invariably after sending them. It must be really annoying. 

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Where? Not with McKenzie’s 10 scouts. Not with the scouts Wheeler and Pronman talked to. Not with Craig Button if he can still be considered a pro.

Or maybe I need to see how you define decided: Jokiharju over Pilut decided? Montour over Miller decided?

No. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

I think as usual with you and I it’s just a matter of degrees.

We both had Rossi ranked higher, we both think the general consensus had Rossi ranked higher, we both like Quinn and we both hope the Sabres made the right choice, or if not the right choice, at least a good choice.

[Thorny]

Greatest QB of the era - How many spots between Brady and Manning? Probably only 1. 

There's a decided gap, nonetheless. 

This is an extreme example but I'm merely using it illustrate how there can be a decided gap, regardless of ranking spots in-between. 

[Shootica]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Where? Not with McKenzie’s 10 scouts. Not with the scouts Wheeler and Pronman talked to. Not with Craig Button if he can still be considered a pro.

Or maybe I need to see how you define decided: Jokiharju over Pilut decided? Montour over Miller decided?

He loves Quinn, so I'll still happily call him a pro until he hates our pick next summer.

[Thorny]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think as usual with you and I it’s just a matter of degrees.

We both had Rossi ranked higher, we both think the general consensus had Rossi ranked higher, we both like Quinn and we both hope the Sabres made the right choice, or if not the right choice, at least a good choice.

I think the odds of this are low. The rub is that, beyond clarifying a logistical position on the internet - it doesn't even *matter*, if the part you wrote after, comes true.

There will almost always be a better player in "the field", anyways. Letter of the law evaluations aside, It's not logical to be upset with not taking the best player if you still picked a really good player.

Edited October 29, 2020 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

I've heard and learned more about Quinn post draft. Unlike say Johnson, there's something about Quinn that I like and a reason I'm optimistic. Idk if he'll be better than Rossi but I will say Quinns overall game is highly underrated. He's like Cozens in some ways. Very intrigued to see him this season. 

[dudacek]

16 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Greatest QB of the era - How many spots between Brady and Manning? Probably only 1. 

There's a decided gap, nonetheless. 

This is an extreme example but I'm merely using it illustrate how there can be a decided gap, regardless of ranking spots in-between. 

 

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I think the odds of this are low. The rub is that, beyond clarifying a logistical position on the internet - It doesn't even *matter*, if the part you wrote after, comes true. The sum of the parts is the *only* thing that matters. 

There will almost always be a better player in "the field", anyways. Letter of the law evaluations aside, It's not logical to be upset with not taking the best player if you still picked a really good player.

Basically, I think the pick opens itself up to criticism if A) Quinn isn't top 10 pick worthy and B) KA's record overall isn't very good. He doesn't get the safety net of "well, the consensus said", but he's only in trouble for it if both A and B take place, IMO. 

That’s the crux of the disagreement though: our perceptions of the consensus is different.

I think there were a large number of non-NHL rankings that thought Rossi was worthy of the 3-5 range and I never saw any that put Quinn there.

But that wasn’t the case when I looked at NHL scouts. In addition to the ones I listed,Central Scouting had Rossi 6 and Quinn 7

But sorry, I’m repeating myself. Good discussion.

Edited October 29, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

NHL CSS is always off. That said, Rossi was ranked higher by consensus which in 3 years might mean nothing. There were definitely rumblings in the scouting world of Quinn in the top 10. This was a less off the board pick than Sieder or Hayton.

[Thorny]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

That’s the crux of the disagreement though: our perceptions of the consensus is different.

I think there were a large number of non-NHL rankings that thought Rossi was worthy of the 3-5 range and I never saw any that put Quinn there.

But that wasn’t the case when I looked at NHL scouts. In addition to the ones I listed,Central Scouting had Rossi 6 and Quinn 7

But sorry, I’m repeating myself. Good discussion.

I don't think our perceptions of it are even different. Didn't most outlets have Rossi a bit higher? If we both agree on that, we are agreeing on the facts.

I think we are disagreeing about what constitutes a decided consensus. I feel like we are getting a bit needlessly bogged down in semantics - do we not just speak more intuitively about these things in other instances? The amount of gap, spots wise, isn't really a barrier to determining whether a consensus is strong or not. When we speak of Reinhart and Draisaitl, it's never a question of the amount of spaces between them on lists, they were always right there within 1, 2 spots of each other, and even though Draisaitl was highly touted, he wasn't really perceived as an option, by consensus. 

Rossi and Quinn were like this. Almost everyone agreed Rossi was better, regardless of them being close. That's still a strong consensus. 

My argument isn't that the consensus says Rossi is notably better, it's that there's a notable consensus that Rossi is better. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by Thorny