Sabres “salary cap space is a mirage” per Yerdon in Athletic

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, freester said:

Mirtle does not take into account the cap penalty the sabres incurred for being over the cap nor the bonuses that Dahlin and Joker have already earned.

The Sabres don't face a "cap penalty ... for being over the cap." They never exceeded their BF-LTIR cushion.  They will however have Dahlin's bonuses & any that any of the other ELC guys earned come out of next year's cap because their actual cap salary exceeded the cap and there is no money banked under this season's cap to cover those.  Those and Connolly's Hodgson's buyout are the only reductions to next year's cap (whatever it happens to be) that the Sabres face at present.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Taro T

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

14 minutes ago, Taro T said:

The Sabres don't face a "cap penalty ... for being over the cap." They never exceeded their BF-LTIR cushion.  They will however have Dahlin's bonuses & any that any of the other ELC guys earned come out of next year's cap because their actual cap salary exceeded the cap and there is no money banked under this season's cap to cover those.  Those and Connolly's buyout are the only reductions to next year's cap (whatever it happens to be) that the Sabres face at present.

I have a feeling the league may invoke a special circumstances clause (assuming there is one), or hold a vote, to address some of these cap situations.  The double whammy of seeing a salary cap reduction at a time when teams were making deadline moves to position themselves for a run at some expense of the future (trading a high pick away, dumping RFAs due a raise next year to make room for a rental this year).  This is just what team managers are dealing with.  All FAs right now have to be a little worried because a cap reduction means less free cash flow for teams for new contracts.   

Since it impacts both the front offices and players I could see a compromise being reached for the 20-21 season.  That said, given their current "economic hardships" I bet PSE would welcome a salary cap reduction for next season ?

Edited April 29, 2020 by SHAAAUGHT!!!

[Broken Ankles]

13 minutes ago, Taro T said:

The Sabres don't face a "cap penalty ... for being over the cap." They never exceeded their BF-LTIR cushion.  They will however have Dahlin's bonuses & any that any of the other ELC guys earned come out of next year's cap because their actual cap salary exceeded the cap and there is no money banked under this season's cap to cover those.  Those and Connolly's buyout are the only reductions to next year's cap (whatever it happens to be) that the Sabres face at present.

Connolly?  Have you been watching MSG classics? 

[Taro T]

 

1 minute ago, Broken Ankles said:

Connolly?  Have you been watching MSG classics? 

Sorry, meant Hodgson.

[Taro T]

And, referring to ELC bonuses, should they play additional games, Jokiharju might lose 1/2 of the $425k bonus he stands to gain at present.  He's 3rd among Sabres D at present with a -6 +/-, 1 ahead of Dahlin at -7.  If they flip spots, the Sabres save $212,500 as Dahlin has already maxed out his type A performance bonuses.

Except for Olofsson who qualifies for the 20 goal & the ppg bonus with a strong likelihood of All Rookie Team as well, pretty sure no other ELCers are in line for any performance bonuses.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Taro T

[Eleven]

15 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Overall, it seemed like Yardon -- who I think is reasonably knowledgeable about the team -- had an idea for a take and tried to bend the facts to suit his position.

That has been The Athletic for about five weeks now, other than the NFL draft.  Understandable, I suppose, there's nothing in sports to write about.

[Marvin]

29 minutes ago, SHAAAUGHT!!! said:

I have a feeling the league may invoke a special circumstances clause (assuming there is one), or hold a vote, to address some of these cap situations.  The double whammy of seeing a salary cap reduction at a time when teams were making deadline moves to position themselves for a run at some expense of the future (trading a high pick away, dumping RFAs due a raise next year to make room for a rental this year).  This is just what team managers are dealing with.  All FAs right now have to be a little worried because a cap reduction means less free cash flow for teams for new contracts.   

Since it impacts both the front offices and players I could see a compromise being reached for the 20-21 season.  That said, given their current "economic hardships" I bet PSE would welcome a salary cap reduction for next season ?

If the cap goes down a lot and/or they expect games without fans, then I think that they should consider shortening next season to minimise the pain on the players, GMs and owners, with prorating of the salaries and other adjustments.  Not that I would expect Donald Fehr to be reasonable.

[Taro T]

42 minutes ago, E4 ... Ke2 said:

If the cap goes down a lot and/or they expect games without fans, then I think that they should consider shortening next season to minimise the pain on the players, GMs and owners, with prorating of the salaries and other adjustments.  Not that I would expect Donald Fehr to be reasonable.

Problem with that is, if the season is shorter revenues drop by that much more.  And both sides now get 50% of, let's say with a 1/3 shorter season, 66% of normal rate than 50% of something close to normal. 

Could see them altering the break for all star weekend to either fitting in a single day or dropping it altogether (at Roger's & NBC's discretion) and eliminating the in season break for each team; but they're going to squeeze in as many games as possible next year to make up (as much as possible) for losses from this year.  But don't see them shortening the season unless all other options won't work.

[LGR4GM]

On 4/28/2020 at 4:35 PM, dudacek said:

You’re missing the point in this context: substituting three of those players for Simmonds Frolik and Sobotka gives you the cap space to upgrade Vesey and Girgensons, without a huge drop-off at the bottom of the roster.

You are missing my point. Yes you do get the cap space, but do you truly upgrade the roster?

[Randall Flagg]

All I know is that I'd rather have a less impressive amount of space, but 23/28/22/68/95 etc. signed and ready to go, versus "lOoK aT hOw mUcH cAp SpAcE" but also having about six of 18 spots set for next year, because that feels like an impossible task to do well in one summer especially considering we haven't been able to adequately fill just two spots we need the last two offseasons 

[dudacek]

16 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You are missing my point. Yes you do get the cap space, but do you truly upgrade the roster?

That depends on Botterill, innit? (sorry, haven't read innit on here in a while).

Personally, I would rather have Thompson, Mittelstadt and Cozens in the lineup than Frolik, Simmonds and Sobotka next year regardless, but until the kids develop it would certainly be a stretch to call that an actual upgrade. The upgrade comes from using the extra space created to replace Girgensons and Vesey with real top-six forwards.

[Randall Flagg]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 The upgrade comes from using the extra space created to replace Girgensons and Vesey with real top-six forwards.

I snorted when I read this. 

 

We are in trouble 

[LGR4GM]

31 minutes ago, dudacek said:

That depends on Botterill, innit? (sorry, haven't read innit on here in a while).

Personally, I would rather have Thompson, Mittelstadt and Cozens in the lineup than Frolik, Simmonds and Sobotka next year regardless, but until the kids develop it would certainly be a stretch to call that an actual upgrade. The upgrade comes from using the extra space created to replace Girgensons and Vesey with real top-six forwards.

When all this is said and done how much extra space will we actually have? Some of that extra space goes to Reinhart, Kahun, and for the love of god Larsson. Also you know the team is bad when Vesey and Zemgus are being used in a sentence with top 6 forward. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

When all this is said and done how much extra space will we actually have? Some of that extra space goes to Reinhart, Kahun, and for the love of god Larsson. Also you know the team is bad when Vesey and Zemgus are being used in a sentence with top 6 forward. 

That question is pretty much what this thread has morphed into

Assuming a static cap and re-signed RFAs, Mirtle says $10.5 million, although most of us say he's overestimating the RFA contracts.

But the reality is we have about $34 million to re-sign or replace RFAs Kahun, Reinhart, Montour, Ullmark and Olofsson and UFAs Larsson, Girgensons, Vesey, Frolik and Simmonds.

It's my view that at least a couple of those spots will go to low-cost prospects Thompson, Asplund, Mittelstadt, and Cozens.

It's a blank canvas with a ton of flexibility to significantly improve the team that Botterill can choose to paint in any number of ways through good trades and contracts. I just wish someone else was holding the paintbrush.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

That question is pretty much what this thread has morphed into

Assuming a static cap and re-signed RFAs, Mirtle says $10.5 million, although most of us say he's overestimating the RFA contracts.

But the reality is we have about $34 million to re-sign or replace RFAs Kahun, Reinhart, Montour, Ullmark and Olofsson and UFAs Larsson, Girgensons, Vesey, Frolik and Simmonds.

It's my view that at least a couple of those spots will go to low-cost prospects Thompson, Asplund, Mittelstadt, and Cozens.

It's a blank canvas with a ton of flexibility to significantly improve the team that Botterill can choose to paint in any number of ways through good trades and contracts. I just wish someone else was holding the paintbrush.

I don't think 10.5 gets you 2 top 6 forwards. Not UFA at least. 

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't think 10.5 gets you 2 top 6 forwards. Not UFA at least. 

Definitely not UFA.

If it’s me, I keep our RFA deals down, trade for the right RFA forward, and fill out the roster with kids and cap casualties/bargain UFAs.

I’d much rather spend 6-10 million on a legit 2C than the same amount on two more Marcus Johanssons, but we can afford to do either if we play our cards right.

And we might do better than that if we leverage the league-wide cap crunch properly.

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Definitely not UFA.

If it’s me, I keep our RFA deals down, trade for the right RFA forward, and fill out the roster with kids and cap casualties/bargain UFAs.

I’d much rather spend 6-10 million on a legit 2C than the same amount on two more Marcus Johanssons, but we can afford to do either if we play our cards right.

And we might do better than that if we leverage the league-wide cap crunch properly.

Until I see otherwise, I have no trust in this organization to execute such a plan. 

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Until I see otherwise, I have no trust in this organization to execute such a plan. 

Tend to agree with you, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities.

Mirtle’s article has the Blues, Vegas, the Leafs, the Penguins, the Islanders, oilers, Coyotes, Blackhawks, and Tampa as hard against the cap or, in most of those cases over it.

As much as I don’t like him, trade a pick for Dylan Strome and offer him a Sam Reinhart 2nd contract. Sign Granlund for 5 or 6, and Larsson (or a legit replacement) for 2.5, let the kids fight over the last two spots.

And the pipe dream: chase Cirelli. Tampa has just $5 million in cap space to sign Cirelli, Cernak, Sergachev and two more skaters.

Edited April 30, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Tend to agree with you, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities.

Mirtle’s article has the Blues, Vegas, the Leafs, the Penguins, the Islanders, oilers, Coyotes, Blackhawks, and Tampa as hard against the cap or, in most of those cases over it.

As much as I don’t like him, trade a pick for Dylan Strome and offer him a Sam Reinhart 2nd contract. Sign Granlund for 5 or 6, and Larsson (or a legit replacement) for 2.5, let the kids fight over the last two spots.

And the pipe dream: chase Cirelli. Tampa has just $5 million in cap space to sign Cirelli, Cernak, Sergachev and two more skaters.

What pick? Again, this team has no depth in the forward ranks so if you trade for Strome what are you actually giving up. The ROR for example would look far better if St Louis had failed in the first round and ended up at 20th. We would have probably gotten a different player and maybe just maybe that player would have been good. It is a 0 sum game when you make a trade. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Frolik, Simmonds, and Sobotka are gone.  Girgensons is probably gone.  If they agree on a compliance buyout, KO is gone.  

Kahun was the first off-season forward upgrade and probably the top 6 RW to be pencilled in for next season.  He was on pace for a 45 pt season this year.  In previous seasons 45 pts would put a RW in the top 40 RWs in the NHL.  We can argue whether or not having Kahun in your top 6 forwards is a good thing, but I liked what I saw from him in his limited stint here and what he did as a rookie in Chicago.  One of the things I like about him is that he is a playmaker.  We already have 2 snipers in our top 6 at RW.  Our lack of playmakers on the 2nd line destroyed Skinner’s season.  Hopefully a full season with Kahun or Jack will get Skinner going again.  VO seems to produce with whomever he plays.

Kahun spent time in Pitt on both the 2nd and 3rd lines.  Playing with Mallon and Rust as well as Guentzel and McCann.

With Kahun in the top 6.  We really are only trying to fill one top 6 forward slot and that is the 2C.  We’ll have plenty of money for that position especially when we move one of our excess RHD to help cover the cost.

None of his chances the fact that at least two young players are jumping into the 3C and 3 RW roles both to save cap and give our youth a sheltered place to start.

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

What pick? Again, this team has no depth in the forward ranks so if you trade for Strome what are you actually giving up. The ROR for example would look far better if St Louis had failed in the first round and ended up at 20th. We would have probably gotten a different player and maybe just maybe that player would have been good. It is a 0 sum game when you make a trade. 

What about a conditional (top 10 or Lottery protected) 1st in 2021?  This way you get a 2C and add depth at forward with another capable young forward 

Now your forwards 25 and under are Kahun, Jack, Sam, VO, Strome, and Lazar at the NHL level, with 22 and under talent Mitts, Thompson, Cozens, Asplund, Routsalainen and Pekar in the system with the first 5 competing for NHL roster spots as early as next season. 

 

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Definitely not UFA.

If it’s me, I keep our RFA deals down, trade for the right RFA forward, and fill out the roster with kids and cap casualties/bargain UFAs.

I’d much rather spend 6-10 million on a legit 2C than the same amount on two more Marcus Johanssons, but we can afford to do either if we play our cards right.

And we might do better than that if we leverage the league-wide cap crunch properly.

Wouldn't that be something if the same team that saw their team blow up over a dozen years ago in part to believing like most everybody at the time that the cap would go down that 1st year back from THE lockout (even though attendance & revenues went up league wide the season after the previous 2 work stoppages), which was part of the rationale for all the 1 year contracts, would finally emerge from their long nightmare because the cap finally went down & they were (accidentally or not) set up to capitalize on it. 

[LGR4GM]

34 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What about a conditional (top 10 or Lottery protected) 1st in 2021?  This way you get a 2C and add depth at forward with another capable young forward 

Now your forwards 25 and under are Kahun, Jack, Sam, VO, Strome, and Lazar at the NHL level, with 22 and under talent Mitts, Thompson, Cozens, Asplund, Routsalainen and Pekar in the system with the first 5 competing for NHL roster spots as early as next season. 

 

Sure because a pick in 2021 outside the top 10 means they aren't an NHL forward until at least 2023 and probably not impactful until 2024. 

As to the rest, you can keep listing out players below an age as though it means we have depth, it doesn't. We don't have depth in the system, we have a lot of bottom 6 players with some middle 6 potential. We need to fix that. 

Edited April 30, 2020 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

33 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

What pick? Again, this team has no depth in the forward ranks so if you trade for Strome what are you actually giving up. The ROR for example would look far better if St Louis had failed in the first round and ended up at 20th. We would have probably gotten a different player and maybe just maybe that player would have been good. It is a 0 sum game when you make a trade. 

Again, I don’t like Strome, I wouldn’t trade for him. Our first is too much, but I wouldn’t freak out over our second.

To your bigger point, Strome is 23. He would join Reinhart, Olofsson, Kahun, Thompson, Mittelstadt, Cozens and Asplund as organizational forwards in the range of forwards whose window presumably could match Eichel’s.

He is adding to our stable of young forwards, even though I think the idea that the Sabres lack of young forwards is overstated. It’s not like trading for Paul Stastnyor Kyle Turris.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Again, I don’t like Strome, I wouldn’t trade for him. Our first is too much, but I wouldn’t freak out over our second.

To your bigger point, Strome is 23. He would join Reinhart, Olofsson, Kahun, Thompson, Mittelstadt, Cozens and Asplund as organizational forwards in the range of forwards whose window presumably could match Eichel’s.

He is adding to our stable of young forwards, even though I think the idea that the Sabres lack of young forwards is overstated. It’s not like trading for Paul Stastnyor Kyle Turris.

Well said.