Risto said it's time for him to go?

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

How many Number 4 Defenseman are making 5.4 Million?

Are we willing to possibly lose him for nothing in the expansion draft in two years? If he is the 4th Defenseman on the Depth Chart it makes sense he would not be protected and Seattle would grab a RHD who can play on the PP. 

There is a large body of evidence that Risto is what he is. 

Now is the time to move him for the right deal 

 

Good point, you'd think Botterill would have to be convinced he can be at least a 3 for us for keeping him to make any sense. If he doesn't trade him, I suppose we can assume this is likely the case. 

Edited June 20, 2019 by Thorny

[SwampD]

Risto is what he is. I find value in what he is,... others don’t. That’s fine.

The funny thing is, he isn’t remotely what’s been wrong with this team.

 

But, carry on. 

[Randall Flagg]

With rumblings that Myers and WPG are talking extension, Ristolainen is like the only RHD of note "available." 

The cap being lower than expected is at least a little alarming to some teams.

Tampa still needs two RHD, and fun teams like Columbus are supposedly interested.

I certainly would never decide "I'm trading Ristolainen" or "I'm keeping Ristolainen" and you should never, ever do that with any asset you have.

But I'd pay a lot of money out of my own pocket just to hear what kinds of things GMs would put together for him.

If you're getting packages built around Virtanen or even a player as good as JT Miller, then just say no thanks and let Krueger watch film of Ristolainen and Pilut yin-yanging each other

If you can build up something and fix a key spot for ten years, take a bunch of salary to yoink Cirelli out of Tampa, then let's goooooooooooooooo



 

[SwampD]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

With rumblings that Myers and WPG are talking extension, Ristolainen is like the only RHD of note "available." 

The cap being lower than expected is at least a little alarming to some teams.

Tampa still needs two RHD, and fun teams like Columbus are supposedly interested.

I certainly would never decide "I'm trading Ristolainen" or "I'm keeping Ristolainen" and you should never, ever do that with any asset you have.

But I'd pay a lot of money out of my own pocket just to hear what kinds of things GMs would put together for him.

If you're getting packages built around Virtanen or even a player as good as JT Miller, then just say no thanks and let Krueger watch film of Ristolainen and Pilut yin-yanging each other

If you can build up something and fix a key spot for ten years, take a bunch of salary to yoink Cirelli out of Tampa, then let's goooooooooooooooo



 

Flaaaaaaaaaaagg!!!!!!!!

Edited June 20, 2019 by SwampD

[TrueBlueGED]

49 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Risto is what he is. I find value in what he is,... others don’t. That’s fine.

The funny thing is, he isn’t remotely what’s been wrong with this team.

 

But, carry on. 

Yea, I mean I have no problem disagreeing over what he is. I just think those who expect him to suddenly start producing positive shot metrics are out to lunch. 

16 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

With rumblings that Myers and WPG are talking extension, Ristolainen is like the only RHD of note "available." 

The cap being lower than expected is at least a little alarming to some teams.

Tampa still needs two RHD, and fun teams like Columbus are supposedly interested.

I certainly would never decide "I'm trading Ristolainen" or "I'm keeping Ristolainen" and you should never, ever do that with any asset you have.

But I'd pay a lot of money out of my own pocket just to hear what kinds of things GMs would put together for him.

If you're getting packages built around Virtanen or even a player as good as JT Miller, then just say no thanks and let Krueger watch film of Ristolainen and Pilut yin-yanging each other

If you can build up something and fix a key spot for ten years, take a bunch of salary to yoink Cirelli out of Tampa, then let's goooooooooooooooo



 

You really wouldn't do Risto for Miller? Before you went on hiatus you were regularly crushing Risto. What changed? 

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Yea, I mean I have no problem disagreeing over what he is. I just think those who expect him to suddenly start producing positive shot metrics are out to lunch. 

You really wouldn't do Risto for Miller? Before you went on hiatus you were regularly crushing Risto. What changed? 

It is likely the case that desperate people in charge of hockey teams think Ristolainen is currently as stands a top pairing player

JT Miller is irritatingly ambiguous - a stop gap and long term solution simultaneously, when I think I could find a better player firmly established as one or the other (Stastny, Cirelli (yes Cirelli is my offseason theme this year))

Risto and Pilut didn't just do well together by chance - they fit each other's weaknesses like a glove, and it produced tangible results to my own eyeballs, to NHL.com's counting stats, and to Micah's linear regression. I have no qualms trying that again for a while. The guy was a  minus five billion this year, his value isn't going to change all that much to the GMs that are going to trade for him, and I don't think he could get much worse in the eyes of the people who don't like him, so we can always just do this again in a couple months if JT Miller by himself is the best we can do right now

My rewatching of Sabres games so far this offseason has really muddled things up for me w.r.t. Risto

I don't really like JT Miller in a vacuum and it's too painful to think of how many assets on that same team I adore




 

[TrueBlueGED]

29 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

It is likely the case that desperate people in charge of hockey teams think Ristolainen is currently as stands a top pairing player

JT Miller is irritatingly ambiguous - a stop gap and long term solution simultaneously, when I think I could find a better player firmly established as one or the other (Stastny, Cirelli (yes Cirelli is my offseason theme this year))

Risto and Pilut didn't just do well together by chance - they fit each other's weaknesses like a glove, and it produced tangible results to my own eyeballs, to NHL.com's counting stats, and to Micah's linear regression. I have no qualms trying that again for a while. The guy was a  minus five billion this year, his value isn't going to change all that much to the GMs that are going to trade for him, and I don't think he could get much worse in the eyes of the people who don't like him, so we can always just do this again in a couple months if JT Miller by himself is the best we can do right now

My rewatching of Sabres games so far this offseason has really muddled things up for me w.r.t. Risto

I don't really like JT Miller in a vacuum and it's too painful to think of how many assets on that same team I adore




 

Way to set yourself up for disappointment with the Cirelli obsession ?

One thing I really disagree with is the notion that Risto's value won't drop much. First, the market conditions are perfect for a Risto trade and irrespective of what he does on the ice, I doubt we see such an ideal market again. Second, if he goes to coach #3 post-tank and has different usage but  is still the same guy with the same issues, analytics or eye test, I think that will reduce his value by a non-trivial amount. 

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, TrueBlueGED said:

Way to set yourself up for disappointment with the Cirelli obsession ?

One thing I really disagree with is the notion that Risto's value won't drop much. First, the market conditions are perfect for a Risto trade and irrespective of what he does on the ice, I doubt we see such an ideal market again. Second, if he goes to coach #3 post-tank and has different usage but  is still the same guy with the same issues, analytics or eye test, I think that will reduce his value by a non-trivial amount. 

I can't help it, I see him in my dreams 

I'm not going to cry about missing out on JT Miller in that situation is all. Believe in RistoPilut 

But yeah, that's why I'm so intrigued to see how far teams would go for him. It hurts nobody to call and check, and I assume Jason is doing that, though I have varying degrees of confidence in assuming Jason is doing things good GMs do

[TrueBlueGED]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I can't help it, I see him in my dreams 

I'm not going to cry about missing out on JT Miller in that situation is all. Believe in RistoPilut 

But yeah, that's why I'm so intrigued to see how far teams would go for him. It hurts nobody to call and check, and I assume Jason is doing that, though I have varying degrees of confidence in assuming Jason is doing things good GMs do

I'll only cry about missing out on Miller if Mittelstadt is our 2C again.

[WildCard]

9 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

JT Miller is irritatingly ambiguous - a stop gap and long term solution simultaneously, when I think I could find a better player firmly established as one or the other (Stastny, Cirelli (yes Cirelli is my offseason theme this year))

Risto and Pilut didn't just do well together by chance - they fit each other's weaknesses like a glove, and it produced tangible results to my own eyeballs, to NHL.com's counting stats, and to Micah's linear regression. I have no qualms trying that again for a while. The guy was a  minus five billion this year, his value isn't going to change all that much to the GMs that are going to trade for him, and I don't think he could get much worse in the eyes of the people who don't like him, so we can always just do this again in a couple months if JT Miller by himself is the best we can do right now

Thank you, that is exactly how I feel about Miller

Interesting note on Pilut and Risto, where do you see those stats?

8 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I'll only cry about missing out on Miller if Mittelstadt is our 2C again.

I don't think he will be, but he will be by 2020 start

[Derrico]

On 6/15/2019 at 12:02 PM, Ducky said:

Risto doesn't get you Trouba, sorry.

Just read this now.  Think 'Peg would have taken this trade.

On 6/15/2019 at 12:24 PM, dudacek said:

Unless you get a team certain they can re-sign him, I’d look at what the Sabres paid to get Skinner last year or what the Jackets paid for Duchene as a good starting point for Trouba’s market value.

He’s a pending UFA who is going to be very picky about who he will let pay him considerably more than market value.

Winner winner chicken dinner.

[Derrico]

10 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

With rumblings that Myers and WPG are talking extension, Ristolainen is like the only RHD of note "available." 

The cap being lower than expected is at least a little alarming to some teams.

Tampa still needs two RHD, and fun teams like Columbus are supposedly interested.

I certainly would never decide "I'm trading Ristolainen" or "I'm keeping Ristolainen" and you should never, ever do that with any asset you have.

But I'd pay a lot of money out of my own pocket just to hear what kinds of things GMs would put together for him.

If you're getting packages built around Virtanen or even a player as good as JT Miller, then just say no thanks and let Krueger watch film of Ristolainen and Pilut yin-yanging each other

If you can build up something and fix a key spot for ten years, take a bunch of salary to yoink Cirelli out of Tampa, then let's goooooooooooooooo



 

Oh my God I've missed you.

[Derrico]

9 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I'll only cry about missing out on Miller if Mittelstadt is our 2C again.

You know how I feel about the Risto situation but this is a very good point.

[LGR4GM]

I just love that Cirelli is viewed as a legit player with all kinds of potential but a 1 year younger Mitts who scored 9 less points in 1 more game is just all kinds of trash. Really helps put into perspective how toxic some the stuff is on this forum. 

Casey Mittelstadt: 83games, 13g, 17a - 13:27 ATOI, won't be 21 until November 22

Anthony Cirelli: 82games, 19g, 20a - 14:51 ATOI, won't be 22 until July 15th

btw, I am not saying those who don't want Mitts as the 2c this year are being toxic or wrong, I agree we need more center depth for Mitts to develop properly. 

[Derrico]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I just love that Cirelli is viewed as a legit player with all kinds of potential but a 1 year younger Mitts who scored 9 less points in 1 more game is just all kinds of trash. Really helps put into perspective how toxic some the stuff is on this forum. 

Casey Mittelstadt: 83games, 13g, 17a - 13:27 ATOI, won't be 21 until November 22

Anthony Cirelli: 82games, 19g, 20a - 14:51 ATOI, won't be 22 until July 15th

btw, I am not saying those who don't want Mitts as the 2c this year are being toxic or wrong, I agree we need more center depth for Mitts to develop properly. 

Man if there is a way to get Cirelli AND Mitts I may need a moment.  I'm with you on Mitts; I'm still confident in him being a very good 2c.  But I'm also with True that I think last year showed we need a one year stop gap 2c at minimum.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Derrico said:

Man if there is a way to get Cirelli AND Mitts I may need a moment.  I'm with you on Mitts; I'm still confident in him being a very good 2c.  But I'm also with True that I think last year showed we need a one year stop gap 2c at minimum.

I would love that. I think both have a bright future ahead of them. 

[freester]

There is no way in hell Tampa is trading Cirelli. I think they would move their first round pick or other lesser prospects. 

Edited June 20, 2019 by freester

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, freester said:

There is no way in hell Tampa is trading Chirelli. I think they would move their first round pick or other lesser prospects. 

Yup, hence why I don't have him in a risto trade but instead use Mitchell Stephens. 

Edited June 20, 2019 by LGR4GM

[Randall Flagg]

23 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I just love that Cirelli is viewed as a legit player with all kinds of potential but a 1 year younger Mitts who scored 9 less points in 1 more game is just all kinds of trash. Really helps put into perspective how toxic some the stuff is on this forum. 

Casey Mittelstadt: 83games, 13g, 17a - 13:27 ATOI, won't be 21 until November 22

Anthony Cirelli: 82games, 19g, 20a - 14:51 ATOI, won't be 22 until July 15th

btw, I am not saying those who don't want Mitts as the 2c this year are being toxic or wrong, I agree we need more center depth for Mitts to develop properly. 

WAR/GAR models (which also isolate player impacts from team, opponent, and situation) have Cirelli as a top 30 player in the NHL, so it's not just my eye that sees it. 

Mitts was a bad NHL player this year. I completely buy the excuse that it's because he's little and weak, but what Cirelli showed in the NHL this year in terms of potential (of course his raw point total is low when every offensive situation imaginable is force fed to the Stamkos and Point lines, and when his linemates are Joseph and Killorn) dwarfs anything from Mitts' high school year, or his college year, or his NHL year. That's not to say that Mitts can't become a good player, of course he can - but Anthony was an excellent two-way NHL forward this past season, and will explode in the proper setting, just like Brayden Point flipped a switch from 66 point rookie season to top 10 NHL player, despite chasing every team's best player around the ice all night. 

Mitts' development curve is eerily similar to Tyson Jost, however you feel about Tyson Jost. There is plenty of potential, it's just the other guy we're talking about already has a measurable and tremendously positive impact on NHL hockey and is also young with loads of room to grow. 

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

WAR/GAR models (which also isolate player impacts from team, opponent, and situation) have Cirelli as a top 30 player in the NHL, so it's not just my eye that sees it. 

Mitts was a bad NHL player this year. I completely buy the excuse that it's because he's little and weak, but what Cirelli showed in the NHL this year in terms of potential (of course his raw point total is low when every offensive situation imaginable is force fed to the Stamkos and Point lines, and when his linemates are Joseph and Killorn) dwarfs anything from Mitts' high school year, or his college year, or his NHL year. That's not to say that Mitts can't become a good player, of course he can - but Anthony was an excellent two-way NHL forward this past season, and will explode in the proper setting, just like Brayden Point flipped a switch from 66 point rookie season to top 10 NHL player, despite chasing every team's best player around the ice all night. 

Mitts' development curve is eerily similar to Tyson Jost, however you feel about Tyson Jost. There is plenty of potential, it's just the other guy we're talking about already has a measurable and tremendously positive impact on NHL hockey and is also young with loads of room to grow. 

You missed my point. It isn't to suggest Cirelli isn't good. I think Cirelli is very good. And since you tossed out his linemates of Joseph and Killorn, who did Mitts get for his rookie year against tougher competition on a shallower and worse team? 

My point is simply that if you think Cirelli is going to be good, which I do, then we shouldn't be on this weird Mittelstadt sucks bender that has been percolating for weeks. Cirelli may end up better but I don't see Casey becoming a 30 pt 3rd line center. That isn't his ceiling. 

[LGR4GM]

My point is simply to let Mittelstadt have another year before we start thinking he is bad or being down on him. 

[Randall Flagg]

31 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You missed my point. It isn't to suggest Cirelli isn't good. I think Cirelli is very good. And since you tossed out his linemates of Joseph and Killorn, who did Mitts get for his rookie year against tougher competition on a shallower and worse team? 

My point is simply that if you think Cirelli is going to be good, which I do, then we shouldn't be on this weird Mittelstadt sucks bender that has been percolating for weeks. Cirelli may end up better but I don't see Casey becoming a 30 pt 3rd line center. That isn't his ceiling. 

Since I've only been here for a few hours, I missed the Mitts sucks bender. 

Though he does suck - I just think he won't fairly soon! 

Cirelli's ceiling is higher than Casey's because if you make a list of the things they've done with evidence on tape, looking for the potential each has shown, Cirelli's last calendar year is more impressive than Tyson Jost college production, anything anyone can do in high school, and a bad NHL season. 

You can squint at their general team-level situations, but shift in and shift out, the things they do on and off the puck are light years apart right now, and those things have little to do with the team around them. Casey's trademark play was spinning off the boards with the puck into that no-man's land between the point and the circles, and then losing it. Cirelli's was burying shorthanded goals and barraging the slot with reckless abandon, playing with feverish effort and a sole purpose of making sure the puck gets to where it has a high chance of going into the net. Also, Mitts' zone starts were among the top three most "sheltered" in the league of players to play half a season, while Cirelli was around 40% and faced tougher competition, so I'm not even convinced that Mitts had a "tougher job" by virtue of being on a bad team

And if you watched that world's tournament, it's why he looked like he was the one driving play on the same ice as guys like Stone, Couturier, Reinhart. He wasn't being carried anywhere, he is his own player, and that's why those models I mentioned above pick him out. They have their flaws, but they also saw a Selke contender playing on the 17-18 Sabres with a -23, and an Art Ross candidate in a different "sheltered" Tampa center. 

I agree with the idea that we shouldn't be "down" on Mitts, I just think my "high" on him is a different "high" than other people's I guess 

 

[Thorny]

10 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

My point is simply to let Mittelstadt have another year before we start thinking he is bad or being down on him. 

Agree, but I don't think many if any are. 

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Agree, but I don't think many if any are. 

It's interesting that mittelstadt last year was being overhyped for no reason and this year, after Dahlin set records it's the kind of the opposite with him. 

I think Mitts being overhyped has shaped feelings going into this offseason. 

[Thorny]

20 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

It's interesting that mittelstadt last year was being overhyped for no reason and this year, after Dahlin set records it's the kind of the opposite with him. 

I think Mitts being overhyped has shaped feelings going into this offseason. 

I think it's because of Eichel. Hyped as generational and he's not. Makes folks gun-shy on Dahlin. But no need.