Risto said it's time for him to go?

[darksabre]

40 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

It doesn't get ignored, it's just that total points by a defensemen is a tough stat to evaluate (special teams time, total ice time, etc.). Also, most Risto defenders don't point to his offense as what he brings...they'll say he handles the tough minutes, protects the front of the net, etc etc etc.

There were 100 defensemen in 2018-19 with at least 1000 minutes played at even strength. Of those 100, Risto ranks 41st in points/60 minutes. Deconstructing that a little bit, he's 63rd in goals/60, 36th in primary assists/60, and 31st in secondary assists/60. Obviously, a couple assists or a goal off of a buttocks will skew these things, so I'd be careful with any kind of what-if anlaysis getting too specific. I think the picture as a whole says he produces even strength points at the rate of a #2 defenseman. 

Of course, the absolute value of this offense needs to be balanced against his defensive liabilities, which are pretty significant. I don't have time to do a full defensive breakdown of his stats, but my read on Risto is ultimately the following: I think he's best suited in a #4/5 role with power play time on a good team. Hide him as best you can defensively and let him score some points. Particularly since we have Dahlin to give the bulk of the PP work to, I don't think that's worth $5.4M AND I think you can probably find a GM who thinks like you (and others) that he's more valuable than this assessment, making for a nice trade piece. I defended Risto for a long time and believed he would develop, but at this point in his career I have accepted he's never going to be a top-pair Dman  or the best Dman on the #2 pairing for a team with serious hopes of contending on the regular.

The problem with trying to replace Risto in that #4 role is you're probably looking at someone like Alex Edler as a UFA, who you could lose to the expansion draft in 2021 because you'd probably have to leave him unprotected just like you would have with Risto.

I guess you could trade Risto now just to get something for him, get Edler for about the same amount of money, and not feel bad about it if Seattle takes him later?

[TrueBlueGED]

17 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

His contract is great. I wish it had 3 or 4 more years of term on it. $5.4 million for a right handed defenseman in his prime that can be consistently be relied on to play 75+ games a season and put up 40+ points of offense on a team that has trouble scoring goals. Plus he doesn't bitch and moan despite the fact that every single coach he's had in Buffalo seems to treat him like he's Shea freaking Weber in his prime when he clearly isn't. Could you find a better defenseman than him? Sure you can, but you'll probably have to pay him close to double what Ristolainen earns right now.

Conversely, he also gives up oodles defensively for a team that has trouble preventing goals against.

Seth Jones signed the exact same contract Risto did, in the same year. He's a lot better. In fact, the list of comparable contracts has quite a few defensemen I would take over Risto: https://www.capfriendly.com/comparables/rasmus-ristolainen-7362

[Doohickie]

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I honestly don't expect RFK is going to have an opportunity to work with Risto. 

You might be right.  I think it all comes down to what value JBot can get for Risto versus what value Risto can provide to the Sabres under RFK.  I could see JBot clearing out a potential problem player/sticking point that could prevent team success.

[Drunkard]

22 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Conversely, he also gives up oodles defensively for a team that has trouble preventing goals against.

Seth Jones signed the exact same contract Risto did, in the same year. He's a lot better. In fact, the list of comparable contracts has quite a few defensemen I would take over Risto: https://www.capfriendly.com/comparables/rasmus-ristolainen-7362

And Eichel's contract looks bad compared to Bergeron and Scheifele. Sometimes teams get lucky on long term deals.

Seth Jones probably isn't available and if he was you'd be giving up Reinhart, a 1st, plus whatever else to get him. I'm sure the next contract for Jones will go up significantly as well. On a team that has been littered with bad contracts over the years (currently Okposo, Bogosian, Sobotka, and recently Pominville and Moulson) Ristolainen's contract is not the issue. I'd argue that he's one of the few players on this team not in ELC or RFA status that actually earns his paycheck.

Edited June 11, 2019 by Drunkard

[Doohickie]

1 hour ago, steveoath said:

Risto was frustrating last season. To me, he looks like there is talent in there... See burns, Brent being walked. But then he has absolute brain fart moments.

I feel that if Krueger legitimately tries to put players in a position to succeed as he claims, he might be able to save Risto.  It may be literally a few days of practicing breakouts and clearing the zone without him carrying it out.  But Risto's gotta learn to use his teammates better.

[TrueBlueGED]

19 minutes ago, darksabre said:

The problem with trying to replace Risto in that #4 role is you're probably looking at someone like Alex Edler as a UFA, who you could lose to the expansion draft in 2021 because you'd probably have to leave him unprotected just like you would have with Risto.

I guess you could trade Risto now just to get something for him, get Edler for about the same amount of money, and not feel bad about it if Seattle takes him later?

Well, I think you can probably attach a boat anchor to Dahlin and he'll be able to make it work, even this early in his career. Without looking at a Risto replacement, my lineup would look something like this:

Dahlin-XXX | Pilut-Montour | McCabe-Nelson

The list of UFA's isn't great, but I bet you could get a Stralman on a reasonable contract to plug in..figure if you take the working parts of his and Bogosian's bodies, you could create a  frankenanchor to attach to Dahlin for a year.

[TrueBlueGED]

16 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I feel that if Krueger legitimately tries to put players in a position to succeed as he claims, he might be able to save Risto.  It may be literally a few days of practicing breakouts and clearing the zone without him carrying it out.  But Risto's gotta learn to use his teammates better.

Do you want to spend $5.4M on a player who needs saving? 

23 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

And Eichel's contract looks bad compared to Bergeron and Scheifele. Sometimes teams get lucky on long term deals.

Seth Jones probably isn't available and if he was you'd be giving up Reinhart, a 1st, plus whatever else to get him. I'm sure the next contract for Jones will go up significantly as well. On a team that has been littered with bad contracts over the years (currently Okposo, Bogosian, Sobotka, and recently Pominville and Moulson) Ristolainen's contract is not the issue. I'd argue that he's one of the few players on this team not in ELC or RFA status that actually earns his paycheck.

A lot of the names on that list weren't lucky signings, though--players on that list are straight up better than Risto with a similar or lesser percentage of the cap at time of signing. Sure, Scheifele's contract is a better value than Eichel's, but they're at least comparable players. 

[Curt]

34 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

And Eichel's contract looks bad compared to Bergeron and Scheifele. Sometimes teams get lucky on long term deals.

If only the Sabres would have extended Eichel 6 years ago!  They could have gotten a bargain like Bergeron.  I bet Eichel’s cap number will look pretty good in 2023 too.

[TrueBlueGED]

3 minutes ago, Curtisp5286 said:

If only the Sabres would have extended Eichel 6 years ago!  They could have gotten a bargain like Bergeron.  I bet Eichel’s cap number will look pretty good in 2023 too.

At the time of signing, Bergeron's contract was 10.69% of the cap; Eichel's is 13.33%. Bergeron's contract is just as amazing in relative terms as it is in absolute value.

[darksabre]

24 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Well, I think you can probably attach a boat anchor to Dahlin and he'll be able to make it work, even this early in his career. Without looking at a Risto replacement, my lineup would look something like this:

Dahlin-XXX | Pilut-Montour | McCabe-Nelson

The list of UFA's isn't great, but I bet you could get a Stralman on a reasonable contract to plug in..figure if you take the working parts of his and Bogosian's bodies, you could create a  frankenanchor to attach to Dahlin for a year.

We already have Bogo for this season soooo

[dudacek]

I have decided I am OK with not making moves on defence this summer. I’d rather use our assets on forwards.

However, if we do decide to move out a D, Alex Edler is intriguing to me as a Dahlin partner if we can convince him not to demand a NMC for the expansion draft.

[TrueBlueGED]

1 minute ago, darksabre said:

We already have Bogo for this season soooo

Which half do we have him for? ?

[Drunkard]

1 minute ago, Curtisp5286 said:

If only the Sabres would have extended Eichel 6 years ago!  They could have gotten a bargain like Bergeron.  I bet Eichel’s cap number will look pretty good in 2023 too.

Fair enough. Would you prefer Nathan MacKinnon then? He was only 2 drafts ahead of Eichel and he signed a much more team friendly contract.

[Curt]

5 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

Fair enough. Would you prefer Nathan MacKinnon then? He was only 2 drafts ahead of Eichel and he signed a much more team friendly contract.

Yes, that’s better.  His contract is really fantastic!

[Curt]

17 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

At the time of signing, Bergeron's contract was 10.69% of the cap; Eichel's is 13.33%. Bergeron's contract is just as amazing in relative terms as it is in absolute value.

Well, Eichel’s contract was signed the season before it went into effect, so that would drop the % a hair, but you are right.  This crow actually tastes pretty good!

[TrueBlueGED]

6 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

Fair enough. Would you prefer Nathan MacKinnon then? He was only 2 drafts ahead of Eichel and he signed a much more team friendly contract.

 

1 minute ago, Curtisp5286 said:

Yes, that’s better.  His contract is really fantastic!

MacKinnon had also done nothing but regress since his rookie year when he signed that deal. The contract price reflects that. Hell, even in the first year of the new contract (his 4th in the league) he only put up 53 points in 82 games. Eichel was better in his 2nd and 3rd years in the league than MacKinnon was in his, and a lot better in that 4th season (which was this year for Eichel). Let's see where things go. 

[darksabre]

18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I have decided I am OK with not making moves on defence this summer. I’d rather use our assets on forwards.

However, if we do decide to move out a D, Alex Edler is intriguing to me as a Dahlin partner if we can convince him not to demand a NMC for the expansion draft.

He's probably going to be in a tough spot this summer as a free agent. He had a NTC with Vancouver for his last contract but I doubt any team will want to give him that again at 33 and with the expansion draft coming up. No one is going to want to be forced to protect Edler.

[Trettioåtta]

2 minutes ago, darksabre said:

He's probably going to be in a tough spot this summer as a free agent. He had a NTC with Vancouver for his last contract but I doubt any team will want to give him that again at 33 and with the expansion draft coming up. No one is going to want to be forced to protect Edler.

Expansion isn't a trade right? So a NMC is a no go, but a NTC would be fine? Same as how you can send a player to the minors on a NTC

[darksabre]

3 minutes ago, Trettioåtta said:

Expansion isn't a trade right? So a NMC is a no go, but a NTC would be fine? Same as how you can send a player to the minors on a NTC

I would assume NMC/NTC are treated the same for the purposes of the expansion draft but someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

[TrueBlueGED]

Just now, darksabre said:

I would assume NMC/NTC are treated the same for the purposes of the expansion draft but someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

I could be wrong, but I thought in the Vegas expansion draft the only thing that exempted a player was a full NMC. 

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, darksabre said:

He's probably going to be in a tough spot this summer as a free agent. He had a NTC with Vancouver for his last contract but I doubt any team will want to give him that again at 33 and with the expansion draft coming up. No one is going to want to be forced to protect Edler.

Scuttlebutt out here is that he hasn’t re-signed with the Canucks yet because they won’t give him the NMC.

[darksabre]

Just now, TrueBlueGED said:

I could be wrong, but I thought in the Vegas expansion draft the only thing that exempted a player was a full NMC. 

That strikes me as wildly unfair to players/teams that negotiated NTCs.

[darksabre]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Scuttlebutt out here is that he hasn’t re-signed with the Canucks yet because they won’t give him the NMC.

Which is absolutely the right choice by the Canucks.

[TrueBlueGED]

4 minutes ago, darksabre said:

That strikes me as wildly unfair to players/teams that negotiated NTCs.

Unfair to players, sure. But teams? They're probably thrilled they don't have to use a valuable protection slot on players with something as mundane as a limited NTC.

Edit: It occurs to me that "exempt" was the wrong choice of words in my previous post. I simply meant a full NMC is the only thing that forces a team to protect a player during the draft. That's my memory of it, anyway.

Edited June 11, 2019 by TrueBlueGED

[dudacek]

I’m in the “so we lose a middle roster player, big deal” camp. 

Very likely to be protected: Jack, Sam, Jeff, Casey, Kyle, Rasmus, Rasmus, Brandon, Linus

Can protect 2 more forwards, or 1 more D depending on who develops. Worst case scenario looks like losing a McCabe-level guy, unless something unexpectedly good happens like all three of Tage, Alex and Victor blossom.

 

Edited June 11, 2019 by dudacek