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2019 Off Season

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1 hour ago, Drunkard said:

He took on 2 cap dumps because he (or Pegula) wanted somebody else to be on the hook for O'Reilly's bonus payment and to help the numbers work. It doesn't change the fact that it was a ***** deal made even shittier by how poorly Sobotka has played and the fact that before Berglund left he was an almost $4 million guy playing on the 4th line with two other plugs in Girgensons and Larsson. At least Berglund quit and we aren't stucking with his cap hit for 4 seasons, but it doesn't change the fact that O'Reilly out produces all 3 of these supposedly "valueable depth players" single handedly. Apparently a bunch of nothing and a lottery ticket was worth it, but I still don't see how.

Thompson at least has the chance of improving over the next few seasons, but even if his improves to the point of becoming a regular top 6 forward that's still a big drop from having one of the 5 or 10 best #2 centers in the league.

I forgot about the bonus payment. Something like $7M right? Isn’t that what both Sobotka/Berglund make in salary combined anyways? 

However, their contracts had longer term. So in order to save $7M today.... he was willing to pay $21M+ over 3 years?? Does that make sense?

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6 minutes ago, Die Hard said:

I forgot about the bonus payment. Something like $7M right? Isn’t that what both Sobotka/Berglund make in salary combined anyways? 

However, their contracts had longer term. So in order to save $7M today.... he was willing to pay $21M+ over 3 years?? Does that make sense?

Yeah, his signing bonus was $7.5 million, all payable on July 1st with a salary of just $1 million. O'Reilly's cap hit was also $7.5 million and the cap hits of the depth guys we received in return were Berglund ($3.85 million for 4 years), Sobotka ($3.5 million for 2 years), and Thompson ($925,000 for 2 years) for a total of $8.275 million.

Even though it was the offseason (when you're allowed to exceed the cap) we brought in more cap than we sent out. Sure it was 3 players and a 1st round pick, but those 3 guys combined can't even max O'Reilly's production.

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12 minutes ago, Die Hard said:

I forgot about the bonus payment. Something like $7M right? Isn’t that what both Sobotka/Berglund make in salary combined anyways? 

However, their contracts had longer term. So in order to save $7M today.... he was willing to pay $21M+ over 3 years?? Does that make sense?

That's not how it would work if he kept ROR. It would be $7,5M/yr that ROR was on the team. 5 years at 7.5M = $37.5M.

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2 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

That's not how it would work if he kept ROR. It would be $7,5M/yr that ROR was on the team. 5 years at 7.5M = $37.5M.

Right. But my thinking is that O’Reilly was worth a late 1st rounder plus a prospect... PLUS the salary cap dump of his contract. That’s typically what I see the standard when teams make moves for a big-name player.

Either it’s a big name (and contract) for a similar player/contract on another team. Or it’s a pick and prospects for a big name/contract. Taking 2 assets like like Sobotka/Berglund makes no sense. Unless it was to save paying O’Reilly’s $7M bonus.... but then we took back even more money than that in the arrangement.

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25 minutes ago, Die Hard said:

Right. But my thinking is that O’Reilly was worth a late 1st rounder plus a prospect... PLUS the salary cap dump of his contract. That’s typically what I see the standard when teams make moves for a big-name player.

Either it’s a big name (and contract) for a similar player/contract on another team. Or it’s a pick and prospects for a big name/contract. Taking 2 assets like like Sobotka/Berglund makes no sense. Unless it was to save paying O’Reilly’s $7M bonus.... but then we took back even more money than that in the arrangement.

Botterill probably thought Berglund and Sobotka provided value, which should make us all question his ability to evaluate talent.

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1 minute ago, Drunkard said:

Botterill probably thought Berglund and Sobotka provided value, which should make us all question his ability to evaluate talent.

If we are to assume that this season was a season in which they were actually trying to win more games than they lost (and as far as I can tell, that was a legit goal for this season), then we can also assume that JBott did perceive value in Sobotka and Berglund.

Given that, it is more than fair to question his ability to evaluate players.

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3 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

Botterill probably thought Berglund and Sobotka provided value, which should make us all question his ability to evaluate talent.

My guess is that he felt they would be an upgrade over our bottom six, which was pretty horrible last year.  Expensive?...no doubt!  Bad decision?... Absolutely!

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1 hour ago, Die Hard said:

Right. But my thinking is that O’Reilly was worth a late 1st rounder plus a prospect... PLUS the salary cap dump of his contract. That’s typically what I see the standard when teams make moves for a big-name player.

Either it’s a big name (and contract) for a similar player/contract on another team. Or it’s a pick and prospects for a big name/contract. Taking 2 assets like like Sobotka/Berglund makes no sense. Unless it was to save paying O’Reilly’s $7M bonus.... but then we took back even more money than that in the arrangement.

ROR contract.....$7.5M x 5yrs = $37.5M

Berglund/ Sobotka/ Thompson = approx $24.5M, +1st rd pick, +2nd rd pick.

we gave up ROR and his $37.5M contract and took on (3) contracts worth $24.5M , a 1st, and a 2nd..

If ROR stayed here and we don't make the trade it would cost us $37.5M.

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1 hour ago, Drunkard said:

Botterill probably thought Berglund and Sobotka provided value, which should make us all question his ability to evaluate talent.

 

1 hour ago, Weave said:

If we are to assume that this season was a season in which they were actually trying to win more games than they lost (and as far as I can tell, that was a legit goal for this season), then we can also assume that JBott did perceive value in Sobotka and Berglund.

Given that, it is more than fair to question his ability to evaluate players.

 

1 hour ago, Carmel Corn said:

My guess is that he felt they would be an upgrade over our bottom six, which was pretty horrible last year.  Expensive?...no doubt!  Bad decision?... Absolutely!

 

4 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

ROR contract.....$7.5M x 5yrs = $37.5M

Berglund/ Sobotka/ Thompson = approx $24.5M, +1st rd pick, +2nd rd pick.

we gave up ROR and his $37.5M contract and took on (3) contracts worth $24.5M , a 1st, and a 2nd..

If ROR stayed here and we don't make the trade it would cost us $37.5M.

Hope you gentlemen don't mind if I chime in on this.

I agree with much posted here. My take on Botterill isn't really what he did in this specific deal, since I am not fully aware of what was going on behind the scenes that ignited Botterill to move ROR. My view is what he does this coming off season to fix this mess.

I keep going back in my own mind to his interviews at seasons start through mid season including the deadline. With the rumors about Risto and the Montour acquisition I am beginning to suspect he was fully prepared to wait out this season and address the defense while waiting for a youngster or 2 to develop, namely Olofsson and Nylander. I'm not pushing aside the Berglund situation, only that it wasn't important enough one way or the other to Botterill to address it immediately I suspect.

Is he disappointed in the seasons outcome? I believe he is, but I also believe the Pegula's silence on the situation is a nod of commitment to both Botterill and Housley. I strongly suspect they've given the ok to move forward with "their" plan.

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1 hour ago, Drunkard said:

Yeah, his signing bonus was $7.5 million, all payable on July 1st with a salary of just $1 million. O'Reilly's cap hit was also $7.5 million and the cap hits of the depth guys we received in return were Berglund ($3.85 million for 4 years), Sobotka ($3.5 million for 2 years), and Thompson ($925,000 for 2 years) for a total of $8.275 million.

Even though it was the offseason (when you're allowed to exceed the cap) we brought in more cap than we sent out. Sure it was 3 players and a 1st round pick, but those 3 guys combined can't even max O'Reilly's production.

Haven't even.....at the time of the trade the career numbers on Berg/ Sobotka/ TT were:

Berglund ...averaged 19g/38pts a season

Sobotka....averaged 8g/27pts

TT..............averaged 6g/18pts (small sample projected over 82g)

So combined....33g/83pts is more than ROR production. Then throw in a 1st and 2nd rd picks. The 3 of them "should have" been able to more than match ROR. The fact that they haven't done so is why everyone knew it was a bad trade before it happened.

FO% is another trait of ROR that needed to be address in the trade....with the Sabres Bergy was over 58% and Sobotka is over 52%(mostly in the left dot..LOL). These are very respectable numbers and close to ROR (Sobotka performing under his career average of about 55%).

I'm sure there are other stats that can prove this to be a bad deal....but I and many others that still aren't into advanced stats could easily see a plus at the time of the trade.

 

 

1st 2019. 2nd 2021. Tage Thompson. Sobotka. Berglund. That is a major return for the Sabres. I get why the Blues did it, they add ROR and Bozak today and they're a better team. But given the midnight pressure to deal ROR, impressive by Jason Botterill

 
1,744
 
 
 

A late 1st. Likely a late 2nd. Two salary dumps and a decent prospect for O’Reilly. Good deal for both teams imo.

 
2
 
 
Just a couple tweets from the first article I looked up about the trade.

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1 hour ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

ROR contract.....$7.5M x 5yrs = $37.5M

Berglund/ Sobotka/ Thompson = approx $24.5M, +1st rd pick, +2nd rd pick.

we gave up ROR and his $37.5M contract and took on (3) contracts worth $24.5M , a 1st, and a 2nd..

If ROR stayed here and we don't make the trade it would cost us $37.5M.

isn't winning more important than money? Didn't Pegula say the only reason for existing is to win a Cup?

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1 minute ago, nucci said:

isn't winning more important than money? Didn't Pegula say the only reason for existing is to win a Cup?

Never said it wasn't. I was only correcting a post. 

But seeing that you mentioned it....what did we win with ROR?

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38 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Never said it wasn't. I was only correcting a post. 

But seeing that you mentioned it....what did we win with ROR?

Using that logic we should trade Eichel.

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3 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Go for it.

I'd rather keep our good players and acquire more of them then do the FXGMJB special and trade a quarter for a nickel, 2 slugs, and a penny.

Edited by Drunkard

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2 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Never said it wasn't. I was only correcting a post. 

But seeing that you mentioned it....what did we win with ROR?

what have we won with anyone last 10 years....what have we won ever? 50 years and no Championship. ROR trade was awful and did not improve the team

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28 minutes ago, nucci said:

what have we won with anyone last 10 years....what have we won ever? 50 years and no Championship. ROR trade was awful and did not improve the team

This statement you won't be able to prove for years.

 

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2 hours ago, Drunkard said:

I'd rather keep our good players and acquire more of them then do the FXGMJB special and trade a quarter for a nickel, 2 slugs, and a penny.

And just how many good players could we sign if we kept ROR? Enough to take us from last to 1st?

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2 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

This statement you won't be able to prove for years.

 

I'm looking at right now...no one can predict what is going to happen except another season of no playoffs

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Time to move on to 19/20. 

JB should start now - no more Pominville, Scandella and whoever else won’t be around next year. 

Lets bring up Olofsson, Smith, Borgen, Nylander and Smith for a few games at a time for each of them. When they do come up, let them play significant minutes. 

If Phil keeps on playing the vets - pull the plug now. 

 

 

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I have zero confidence in Botts ability to build a winner. The ROR trade will go down as one of tf the worst trades in Sabre’s history.  

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12 hours ago, Drunkard said:

He took on 2 cap dumps because he (or Pegula) wanted somebody else to be on the hook for O'Reilly's bonus payment and to help the numbers work. It doesn't change the fact that it was a ***** deal made even shittier by how poorly Sobotka has played and the fact that before Berglund left he was an almost $4 million guy playing on the 4th line with two other plugs in Girgensons and Larsson. At least Berglund quit and we aren't stucking with his cap hit for 4 seasons, but it doesn't change the fact that O'Reilly out produces all 3 of these supposedly "valueable depth players" single handedly. Apparently a bunch of nothing and a lottery ticket was worth it, but I still don't see how.

Thompson at least has the chance of improving over the next few seasons, but even if his improves to the point of becoming a regular top 6 forward that's still a big drop from having one of the 5 or 10 best #2 centers in the league.

The ROR trade was so bad it is a fireable offense.  Inexcusable terrible boneheaded trade.  You just dont trade centers like ROR without a sizable return.  As soon as the trade was announced I was mortified.  

Edited by Gatorman0519
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12 hours ago, nucci said:

I'm looking at right now...no one can predict what is going to happen except another season of no playoffs

So am I looking at right now and you could never prove that we would be in the playoffs if ROR trade never happened.

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16 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

And just how many good players could we sign if we kept ROR? Enough to take us from last to 1st?

Pretty much the same as if we had kept him. That's the biggest blunder of the trade Botterill made. He moved out O'Reilly's $7.5 million cap hit and downgraded the talent all while bringing in $8.275 million in cap hits ($3.85 million for Berglund, $3.5 million for Sobotka, and $925,000 for Thompson) so that's a poor argument. Sure he lucked out after the fact with Berglund walking away, but to suggest we moved O'Reilly for cap space so we could upgrade other areas is completely misleading. O'Reilly actually produced enough to justify his cap hit, unlike the proceeds of what we received by trading him.

Edited by Drunkard

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Botterill has a monumental task ahead of him.

Must go:

Coach PH.  Scandella, Risto, Pommers, Sobotka, Girgs, Larsson.  TT to the minors, Mitts to the third line. 

Needs:

Resign Skinner, Starting goalie, 2C, 2 Top 6 wingers, 4Th line grinders with more production, top 4 defenseman 

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