WildCard Posted June 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 Dudacek and I agreed on compromise language awhile back! A player peaks offensively around ~26, but their prime is longer than that. All hail Dudacek! :pI'm finding and digging this argument back up dammit I will NOT lose another RoR debate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubkev Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 (edited) Evidently people have forgotten the heady days of Derek Roy, Steve Ott, Cody Hodgson, Jochen Hecht, Tyler Ennis... Derek Roy was better than all 4 of the other guys combined. Edited June 13, 2018 by ubkev Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 And you think that's what Reinhart ultimately ends up as? What's more likely: RoR ends up slipping from 60-65pts, aka out of his prime, or Reinhart hits his prime and goes up from 45-50pts? Reinhart's played his entire career on garbage teams, can O'Reilly say the same? I think Flagg has laid out a strong argument for why O'Reilly can last longer. He's getting brutalized with minutes and putting up 60 points. Ease the minutes and his offensive production can likely sustain itself. And we always have the option of shifting him to wing once Mittelstadt is ready. I consider O'Reilly a great player, and great players tend to defy the aging curve some. And O'Reilly's contract runs him through age 32, so it's not like we're on the hook for his 35+ years. I'm in no hurry to trade Reinhart, and I've been one of his bigger proponents on this board. But betting on him to reach O'Reilly's level is not a good bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted June 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 I think Flagg has laid out a strong argument for why O'Reilly can last longer. He's getting brutalized with minutes and putting up 60 points. Ease the minutes and his offensive production can likely sustain itself. And we always have the option of shifting him to wing once Mittelstadt is ready. I consider O'Reilly a great player, and great players tend to defy the aging curve some. And O'Reilly's contract runs him through age 32, so it's not like we're on the hook for his 35+ years. I'm in no hurry to trade Reinhart, and I've been one of his bigger proponents on this board. But betting on him to reach O'Reilly's level is not a good bet. Wait so RoR can last longer because he's already been worked to death at this point in his career? Doesn't exactly seem right, the guy has miles in him. We complain about it all season, how much of a toll we out on him running him know the ice for 22m+ a game, in the biggest spots, with the hardest assignments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 Wait so RoR can last longer because he's already been worked to death at this point in his career? Doesn't exactly seem right, the guy has miles in him. We complain about it all season, how much of a toll we out on him running him know the ice for 22m+ a game, in the biggest spots, with the hardest assignments I don't really think that stuff carries over season to season unless the player doesn't take care of himself in the offseason. Major injuries racking up? Sure. But he doesn't have that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted June 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 I don't really think that stuff carries over season to season unless the player doesn't take care of himself in the offseason. Major injuries racking up? Sure. But he doesn't have that. I know plenty of people still have an irrational hatred for him, but LeBron is just incredible. I definitely feel lucky to have watched his entire career (which is nowhere close to over). He just might drag arguably his worst team ever to the Finals at age 33 and with 15 years and a ton of playoff miles. Unreal.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 ;) Fortunately, playoff miles aren't a problem for ROR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 ;) Surely you realize I was talking about the number of minutes LeBron has played, not the difficulty of minutes, right? LeBron's playoff runs have added literal seasons of wear and tear on his body. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted June 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 Surely you realize I was talking about the number of minutes LeBron has played, not the difficulty of minutes, right? LeBron's playoff runs have added literal seasons of wear and tear on his body.Playoff minutes are harder minutes, especially for him, especially in that league Fortunately, playoff miles aren't a problem for ROR.I laughed, then I cried Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 Playoff minutes are harder minutes, especially for him, especially in that league Maybe, maybe not, but that still wasn't the point I was making with his playoff minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted June 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 Maybe, maybe not, but that still wasn't the point I was making with his playoff minutes. How does harder work done over an extended period not negatively affect an athlete Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 (edited) How does harder work done over an extended period not negatively affect an athlete I think you're overestimating the difference in the type of minutes LeBron plays in the playoffs versus the regular season. He averages a whopping 3.2 more minutes per game in the playoffs with an additional 1.7 points, 1.5 rebounds, and .1 fewer assists. It's also not for an extended period, it's for ~20 game stretches. LeBron goes hard in the regular season and has carried bad Cavs teams for years. I don't think the playoff runs have a meaningfully larger impact than just 20 more regular season games would have. And all of that is besides the point! You were making the wrong inference from what I said to bolster your argument! Agree or disagree, I demand a retraction! Edited June 13, 2018 by TrueBlueGED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted June 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 I think you're overestimating the difference in the type of minutes LeBron plays in the playoffs versus the regular season. He averages a whopping 3.2 more minutes per game in the playoffs with an additional 1.7 points, 1.5 rebounds, and .1 fewer assists. It's also not for an extended period, it's for ~20 game stretches. And all of that is besides the point! You were making the wrong inference from what I said to bolster your argument! Agree or disagree, I demand a retraction! Oh come on man, we both know NBA athletes aren't trying their hardest in the regular season. Sure, he's playing 3.2 more minutes and with whatever minimal amount of stat increase, but he's working a hell of a lot harder for those stats in those minutes against much better teams. Hell, the Warriors didn't even try until the Finals this year! Well my point was RoR works a ton harder minutes, so I don't see why we'd believe he can somehow last longer than others in their prime. Seems like it should negatively affect him, making him more likely to decline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 Oh come on man, we both know NBA athletes aren't trying their hardest in the regular season. Sure, he's playing 3.2 more minutes and with whatever minimal amount of stat increase, but he's working a hell of a lot harder for those stats in those minutes against much better teams. Hell, the Warriors didn't even try until the Finals this year! Well my point was RoR works a ton harder minutes, so I don't see why we'd believe he can somehow last longer than others in their prime. Seems like it should negatively affect him, making him more likely to decline LeBron's usage rate is 31.5 in the regular season, and 32.2 in the playoffs. And of course the Warriors didn't have to try hard all the time, they have 4 all-stars! Totally different compared to what LeBron has done with the Cavs. Again, referencing Flagg, O'Reilly doesn't have to continue to get those minutes. And I still disagree on the substance anyway. I don't think O'Reilly playing Crosby in February 2017 means he'll be worse in February 2021. I think it's also worth mentioning O'Reilly doesn't have a style of play that lends itself to premature degradation. He's not a talented version of Pat Kaleta, flinging his body recklessly at everything on the ice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted June 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 LeBron's usage rate is 31.5 in the regular season, and 32.2 in the playoffs. And of course the Warriors didn't have to try hard all the time, they have 4 all-stars! Totally different compared to what LeBron has done with the Cavs. Again, referencing Flagg, O'Reilly doesn't have to continue to get those minutes. And I still disagree on the substance anyway. I don't think O'Reilly playing Crosby in February 2017 means he'll be worse in February 2021. I think it's also worth mentioning O'Reilly doesn't have a style of play that lends itself to premature degradation. He's not a talented version of Pat Kaleta, flinging his body recklessly at everything on the ice. Alright I really need to step outta the NBA argument with my ESPN facts :lol: Well come on, it's playing Crosby and the best defenses for 4-5 years consistently night in and night out, pp and pk time too. I think what this rather comes down to is someone's confidence in Reinhart. I still think he can be that player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 Alright I really need to step outta the NBA argument with my ESPN facts :lol: Well come on, it's playing Crosby and the best defenses for 4-5 years consistently night in and night out, pp and pk time too. I think what this rather comes down to is someone's confidence in Reinhart. I still think he can be that player. Hold on. You can't make an entire argument about hard minutes and then trot out PP time in support. PP time are literally the easiest minutes a player can have! PK time and playing against top players can have a draining effect over the course of a season, sure, but saying it has a cumulative career effect is a whole 'nother animal. I agree on your last point that much of this comes down to the valuation of Reinhart. But I think even even Dudacek would concede at this point it's incredibly unlikely Reinhart emerges as a Selke-caliber center. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 (edited) Given a straight up choice between the two, no strings attached, I’m taking Ryan O’Reilly over Maybe-one-day Ryan O’Reilly every time. Different question, but I’d imagine ROR is the more likely trade candidate only because it’s hypothetically possible that Botterill thinks he can acquire assets of combined value greater than ROR, especially a little bit down the road, through a savy trade. I.e. that “Knock your socks off” deal. A perceived overpay. He may not be thinking that at all, but ROR’s value is at a level high enough where it lends itself to that possibility. I find it very hard to believe Botterill would see that kind of potential for value wiggle room in a Reinhart deal, as he’s worth much less. I grudgingly vote ROR, but people aren't giving this enough credence. Next year is the year I make up my mind on Reinhart. This coming season? Edited June 13, 2018 by Thorny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 Given a straight up choice between the two, no strings attached, I’m taking Ryan O’Reilly over Maybe-one-day Ryan O’Reilly every time. Different question, but I’d imagine ROR is the more likely trade candidate only because it’s hypothetically possible that Botterill thinks he can acquire assets of combined value greater than ROR, especially a little bit down the road, through a savy trade. I.e. that “Knock your socks off” deal. A perceived overpay. He may not be thinking that at all, but ROR’s value is at a level high enough where it lends itself to that possibility. I find it very hard to believe Botterill would see that kind of potential for value wiggle room in a Reinhart deal, as he’s worth much less. This coming season? Yep. Essentially, I projected Sam Reinhart to be 70-point heady, reliable point producer who made the others around him better. He was that player for the last half of last season. He was also dogshit for the first half. It wasn’t inconsistency, it was the tale of two players. If he can be the second half player over a full season, I take him over O’Reilly, who is still in his prime, but past his peak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 (edited) Yep. Essentially, I projected Sam Reinhart to be 70-point heady, reliable point producer who made the others around him better. He was that player for the last half of last season. He was also dogshit for the first half. It wasn’t inconsistency, it was the tale of two players. If he can be the second half player over a full season, I take him over O’Reilly, who is still in his prime, but past his peak. I’d be thrilled with 70 points. To me, 60 points is first line worthy, and what we were hoping to draft. That’s my major bar for Sam. But if he gets there at this age, his ceiling is going to be higher than that. Edited June 13, 2018 by Thorny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LikeEich Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 Compare them at the same age... It's really not close Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 (edited) Compare them at the same age... It's really not closeRNH was a far better 16-21 year old than Mark Scheifele Edit - I might have read you wrong, are you saying ROR was a better player years 18-22? It appears that in general he was Edited June 13, 2018 by Randall Flagg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 Also we haven’t seen the best of Samson yet and we exactly what ROR is. which is pretty good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAud Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 At this point I'd keep ROR's fixed salary (which as Flagg points out becomes relatively more reasonable vs. the salary cap each year) and near elite performance with a game not predicated on speed, assuming a normal decline over time of his skills as he heads toward 30 and past it, vs. Reinhart's untapped potential and pending RFA status. If Reinhart can be signed to a very team friendly deal (like 4.5M for 4 years or something like that) it would start to swing my preference more his way. But I expect he'll get more like 5.5M for 2 years bridge deal which is less appealing. ROR's beard is impressive but Samson has superior flow, so from a hirsute perspective it's a draw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 ROR's beard is impressive but Samson has superior flow, so from a hirsute perspective it's a draw. :flirt: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabre Dance Posted June 13, 2018 Report Share Posted June 13, 2018 I did not vote in this poll, as the entire question of value brings up the specter of "Who should we keep/who could we trade". Unless it can be proven that one of them is the dark force that is eroding positive attitudes in the locker room, keep 'em both. I have no doubt that as the players around them play better, their performance will also rise. :thumbsup: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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